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Economic transformation, agricultural policies and nutritional habits in russia

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Christine Burggraf, IAMO
Expert consultation on trade and nutrition
15-16 November 2016, FAO Headquarters, Rome
http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-events-new/tradenutrition/en/

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Economic transformation, agricultural policies and nutritional habits in russia

  1. 1. Economic transformation, agricultural policies and nutritional habits in Russia FAO Expert consultation on trade and nutrition | 15-16 November 2016 Christine Burggraf, Thomas Glauben, Ramona Teuber
  2. 2. www.iamo.de/en 2 Motivation • Overweight and obesity not only in high-income countries but also in low- and middle-income countries • Common health consequences: non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus type II and some cancers • In emerging and transition economies the triple burden of nutrition transition: undernourishment, micronutrient deficiencies and obesity • The prevention of diet-related chronic diseases is one of the key global challenges of the 21st century!
  3. 3. www.iamo.de/en 3 • “Russian people […] like to eat bread, sugar and animal fat - quite “harmful” high-calorific foods. A lot of people use lard instead oil for frying. Needless to say that the traditional Russian food does not differ much from American burgers.” (www.pravdareport.com) Motivation
  4. 4. www.iamo.de/en 4 In Russia: • Prevalence of overweight and obesity increased from 52% in 1996 to 60 % in 2015 • Prevalence of diabetes increased from 3.4 % in 1996 to 9.2 % in 2015 • Share of deaths from non-communicable diseases increased from 81% in 2000 to 86 % in 2015  Nutrition transition in Russia! Motivation
  5. 5. www.iamo.de/en 5 Motivation Nutrition transition: • Shift of dietary patterns with increasing household incomes  away from a relatively monotonous and starchy diet with high amounts of fiber  towards a more varied diet of fruits and vegetables  towards higher contents of fat, sugar and animal proteins Positive link between nutrition transition and a growing incidence of overweight, obesity and various chronic diseases, including diabetes.
  6. 6. www.iamo.de/en 6 Objectives • Description of the development of Russian dietary patterns during the post-Socialist transition • Presentation of reasons why Russians – or different segments of the Russian population – choose an unhealthy diet • Recommendations for measures to improve the quality of nutrition
  7. 7. www.iamo.de/en 7 Russian nutrition transition 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Amountpercapitainkg/year Years Fruits and Vegetables Meat Products Dairy products Figure 1: Quantities per food group available per person in kg/year Source: FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheets (Per caput supply)
  8. 8. www.iamo.de/en 8 Russian nutrition transition 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 kcalperdayperperson Year Fat Protein Carbohydrate Total Figure 2: Energy percent per macronutrients available per person per day Source: FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheets (Per caput supply)
  9. 9. www.iamo.de/en 9 Macroeconomic development Figure 3: Russian GNI per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP) Source: Worlbank Databank 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 GNIpercapita,PPP Years
  10. 10. www.iamo.de/en 10 Role of trade policy Policies of trade liberalization: • address physical trade and financial flows • liberalization to improve economic growth with increasing household incomes • for example by: reductions of import barriers export promotion and reduced restrictions on company ownership, financial flows and trade in services
  11. 11. www.iamo.de/en 11 Role of trade policy Trade liberalization policy Food system effects Associated nutrition effects • Import facilitation (e.g. reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers of trade) • Export promotion (currency devaluation) • Encourage foreign direct investment (FDI) • Decreasing support/protection of local food producers • Increased availability and decreased prices of foods, especially of processed, convenience and fast foods • Decreased seasonal fluctuations in food supply • Increased animal production by increased feed imports • Stimulation of local food industry by FDI, more competition and food technology transfers • Specialization of local food production with higher profit margins • Increased variety and amounts of foods consumed, especially of fruits, vegetables, meat and dairy products • Decreased seasonal fluctuations • Decreased consumption of carbohydrate foods • Increased consumption of processed, refined, and pre-prepared foods • Increased daily energy intakes
  12. 12. www.iamo.de/en 12 • Liberalization of international trade and foreign direct investment has profound implications for food systems by:  Food availability,  Food accessibility,  Nutritional quality,  Prices; and  Promotion of foods. • Public health attention has only recently turned to the links between trade and investment agreements, diets and health Role of trade policy
  13. 13. www.iamo.de/en 13 Role of trade policy • Both negative and positive outcomes arise from different aspects of trade liberalization • Especially increasing availability and affordability of processed foods and animal products with large portion sizes and a high energy density • Often uneven dietary development: high-income groups accrue the benefits of a more dynamic marketplace, while lower-income groups often experience convergence towards poor quality diets
  14. 14. www.iamo.de/en 14 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 State Program for Development of Agriculture for 2013-2020 State monopolized United Grain Company to maintain grain market stability Eurasian Customs Union (EACU) for economic integration and removal of all customs borders Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) harmonizing sanitary and food safety regulation Grain export ban WTO member (e.g., agreement for tariff reduction of agricultural products) WTO ruled policies State Program for Development of Agriculture for 2008- 2012 Global financial crisis Severe drought Severe drought Western econ. sanctions and Russian import ban on Western food products Trade policies in Russia
  15. 15. www.iamo.de/en 15 Individual food demand In addition to these macroeconomic influences, the decisive factor will be if and to what extent the Russian population is willing and capable of making its own contribution to healthcare through balanced nutrition!
  16. 16. www.iamo.de 1616 𝑚𝑎𝑥 𝐼,𝐛,𝑇 𝐽 = 0 𝑇 𝑈 𝐛(𝑡), ℎ(𝑡) 𝑒−𝜌𝑡 𝑑𝑡 s.t. 𝐻 𝑡 = 𝐼 𝑡 − 𝛄′ 𝐛 𝑡 − 𝐜 − 𝛿(𝑡)𝐻(𝑡) 𝐴 𝑡 = 𝑟 𝑡 𝐴 𝑡 + 𝑤 𝑡 ℎ 𝑡 + 𝑦 𝑡 −𝜋 𝐻(𝑡)𝐼 𝑡 𝛼 − 𝐩 𝐛(𝑡)′𝐛 𝑡 − 𝑞(𝑡)𝑝 𝑞(𝑡) 𝐼(𝑡) = 𝐼(𝐠 𝑡 , 𝑚(𝑡); 𝐸(𝑡)) with 𝐻 0 = 𝐻0, 𝐻 0 > 𝐻 𝑚𝑖𝑛 > 0, 𝐻 𝑇 ≤ 𝐻 𝑚𝑖𝑛, 𝐻 𝑡 > 𝐻 𝑚𝑖𝑛 ∀ 𝑡 ≠ 𝑇, 𝐴 0 = 𝐴0, 𝐴 0 > 0, 𝐴 𝑇 ≥ 0, 𝛼 > 1, 𝐼 ∈ 0, ∞ . 𝑈: Utility 𝐛: relative intake of risky nutrients 𝐠: relative intake of healthy nutrients 𝐻: health capital with ℎ(𝑡) = 𝜙 𝐻(𝑡) 𝐼: health investments γ: vector of health impact rates 𝛿: depreciation rate 𝑤: wage rate 𝑦: other income 𝐩 𝐛: price vector of risky nutrients 𝐩 𝐠: price vector of healthy nutrients 𝑞: representative outside good 𝑚: time invested in health 𝐸: nutritional knowledge Dynamic Maximization Problem Dietary health investment model
  17. 17. www.iamo.de 17 Nutrient demand analysis • Better-off citizens with higher educational qualifications tend to consume more healthy foods that are rich in vitamins and minerals, but they are also inclined to consume too many (saturated) fats. • Poorer population strata are still struggling against considerable vitamin and mineral deficiencies. • Increasing prices for higher-fat foods reduce the consumption of these products and at the same time benefit the consumption of foods rather rich in vitamins and minerals through substitution effects. • Nutritional knowledge is a key determinant of dietary quality. 17
  18. 18. www.iamo.de/en 18 Policy implications • To improve macroeconomic and agrarian development as well as a better integration into international agricultural markets • As long as import ban exists, to set more priority for import substitution of greenhouse and early vegetables, fruits and berries • To further develop small farming, rural areas and land improvements • More effective measures to promote healthier diets, e.g. improving communal-feeding menu offers, more nutritional knowledge and product labelling such as traffic lights • Tax on unhealthy foods often rather inadequate
  19. 19. Thank you for your attention!

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