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Experian–Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report - Q2 2014

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As the economy continues to improve and consumer lending grows, access to timely and insightful credit trends is critical. By understanding key changes in the consumer lending environment, lenders can react quickly to develop more effective and profitable lending strategies.

View this on-demand webinar for a detailed overview of consumer credit trends from the Q2 2014 Experian–Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report. During this on-demand event, we also take an in-depth look at the current real estate market, including whether the recent slowdown is a legitimate concern or simply a bump in the road to recovery.

Areas of focus include:
- Understanding consumer behaviors in the context of economic trends
- Evaluating the current economy and its impact on mortgage and home equity
- Trends that impact consumer credit decisions

Published in: Economy & Finance
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Experian–Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report - Q2 2014

  1. 1. 1 Unique insights on the consumer credit market and the current state of the U.S. real estate market Highlights from the Q2 2014 Experian–Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public.
  2. 2. Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Introduction Today’s Speakers: Linda Haran Senior Director Experian Decision Sciences Alan Ikemura Senior Product Manager Experian Decision Sciences 2 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  3. 3. Home Equity Trends 3 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  4. 4. Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Q2 2014 Origination Trends | HELOC HELOC origination volume limits (in $BNs) $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 + 27% $95BN $120BN 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 $20 $21 $18 $20 $20 $20 $19 $23 $23 $22 $22 $28 $30 $28 $27 $35 4 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  5. 5. $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 HELOC origination volume limits by region (in $BNs) 2010 Q3 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Q2 2014 Origination Trends | HELOC 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 Year over Year 2014 Q1 % Change +27% +15% +36% +33% +33% 2014 Q2 Midwest Northeast South Atlantic South Central West 5 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  6. 6. Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Q2 2014 Origination Trends | HELOC Top States: Origination $ volume limits (in MMs) for Q2 2014 and YoY % change Top Ten $ Originated (in $MMs) 1.California $5,904 2. New York $2,231 3. Penn $2,068 4. Florida $1,896 5. Mass $1,811 6. Ohio $1,558 7. New Jersey $1,336 8. Illinois $1,298 9. Virginia $1,062 10. Michigan $ 994 Top Ten Q2 2013 Q2 2014 % Change 1. Wyoming $26 $70 169% 2. Oklahoma $79 $146 85% 3. Arizona $318 $568 79% 4. Wisconsin $487 $861 77% 5. Florida $1,242 $1,896 53% 6. Ohio $1,027 $1,558 52% 7. Arkansas $68 $101 50% 8. Indiana $468 $710 49% 9. New Mexico $59 $87 47% 10. Michigan $678 $994 47% 6 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  7. 7. Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Q2 2014 Origination Trends | HELOC Average limit per new trade by VantageScore (in $000s) Super prime Prime Near prime Subprime Deep subprime $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 2014 Q2 2013 Q2 2012 Q2 2011 Q2 7 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  8. 8. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% HELOC average limit and balance per account by VantageScore (in $000s) $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Q2 2014 Outstanding Accounts | HELOC Superprime Prime Near Prime Subprime Deep Subprime Overall Avg Balance Remaining Limit Utilization % 8 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  9. 9. Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Q2 2014 Delinquency Trends | HELOC HELOC delinquency rates as % of balances 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 YoY decline of 13% $10.4BN 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 $9.0BN 2014 Q2 30+ dpd 60+ dpd 90+ dpd 9 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  10. 10. Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Q2 2014 Delinquency Trends | HELOC HELOC 30+ dpd as a % of balances 4% 3.75% 3% 2.20% 2% 1% 0% 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 Midwest Northeast South Atlantic South Central West 1.93% 1.60% 10 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  11. 11. Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Q2 2014 Delinquency Trends | HELOC 30+ delinquency rates by state Best Performing Q2 2014 1. South Dakota 0.54% 2. Wyoming 0.62% 3. Hawaii 0.87% 4. Iowa 0.90% 5. Vermont 1.01% 1.71% national average Worst Performing Q2 2014 1. Delaware 2.58% 2. South Carolina 2.24% 3. Mississippi 2.19% 4. Florida 2.10% 5. Georgia 2.08% 11 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  12. 12. HELOC vintage 30+ dpd as a % of balances 7.40% 6.40% 5.40% 4.40% 3.40% 2.40% 1.40% 0.40% Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Q2 2014 Vintage Trends | HELOC 2004 2005 2006 2007 12 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  13. 13. HELOC vintage and all 30+ dpd as a % of balances 7.40% 6.40% 5.40% 4.40% 3.40% 2.40% 1.40% 0.40% Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Q2 2014 Vintage Trends | HELOC All 2004 2005 2006 2007 13 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  14. 14. 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Q2 2014 Vintage Trends | HELOC HELOC vintage 30+ dpd as a % of balances to unemployment 7.40% 6.40% 5.40% 4.40% 3.40% 2.40% 1.40% 0.40% Unemployment 2004 2005 2006 2007 14 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  15. 15. Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Q2 2014 Vintage Trends | HELOC HELOC vintage outstanding balances and risk exposure (in $BNs) $80.0 $70.0 $60.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 $0.0 $1BN $1.4BN $1.7BN $1.4BN 2004 2005 2006 2007 OS Balance OS Balance Risk 15 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  16. 16. Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report IntelliView Stay ahead of the trends  A unique combination of industry leading assets from Experian and Oliver Wyman  Current Experian – Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports in an online format – Hundreds of pre-defined reports – Create custom reports and views using intuitive prompts – Download instantly to PDF or MS Excel  24 x 7 access to timely and invaluable information given current economic and credit volatility  Automatic quarterly updates  Wide range of consumer lending products  Origination, outstanding loans and credit performance trends  Industry benchmarking  www.experian.com/IntelliView 16 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  17. 17. Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report VantageScore Overview VantageScore Credit Tiers Super prime 781-850 Prime 661-780 Near prime 601-660 Subprime 500-600 Deep subprime 300-499 VantageScore®, which is used by lenders and now available to consumers, is the first credit score developed cooperatively by Experian and the other national credit reporting companies. The VantageScore 3.0 model ranges from 300 - 850 with a high score = low risk. Note: Each lender determines credit quality tiers according to their own lending strategies. The credit tier breakdown is offered only as an approximation. VantageScore is a registered trademark of VantageScore Solutions, LLC. 17 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
  18. 18. For more insights from Experian Decision Analytics, watch our Q2 2014 Experian– Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report presentation webinar: http://bit.ly/EXPNQ22014 18 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

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