Three Ms Currency Market

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  • Three Ms Currency Market

    1. 1. 3 M’s that Move the Currency Market Boris Schlossberg Director of Currency Research
    2. 2. <ul><li>GFT refers to Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. and all of its divisions, branches and subsidiaries, including Global Forex Trading, GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. and GFT Global Markets UK Limited. In the United Kingdom, GFT Global Markets UK Limited is authorized and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful. Trading of foreign exchange contracts, contracts for differences, derivatives and other investment products which are leveraged, can carry a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose more than the initial investment. In Australia, GFT means Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. ARBN 103 508 461, AFS License 226625. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) is available at www.gft.com.au. You should read and consider the PDS before making any decision to deal in GFT products. This [advertisement] is published by GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. (Company Registration Number 200717665N) in Singapore for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in any investment product or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such investment product. © 2009 Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. All rights reserved. CD08BKU.003.021809 </li></ul><ul><li>DISCLAIMER: This presentation and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this presentation for your general information. This presentation and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this presentation or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this presentation. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought </li></ul>Disclaimer
    3. 3. The 3 M’s Macro Micro Monetary Policy
    4. 4. Macro Factors <ul><li>Macro </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Political Conflict </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Equities and Risk Appetite </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Oil and Gold </li></ul></ul>
    5. 5. Risk Appetite <ul><li>EUR/JPY vs. DJIA </li></ul><ul><li>Risk On! Risk Off! </li></ul>Source: DealBook 360
    6. 6. Correlation: SP500 & USD/JPY Blue Line = USD/JPY Red Line = SP500 Weekly Chart Source: GFT Source: DealBook 360
    7. 7. Correlation: SP500 & USD/JPY Blue Line = USD/JPY Red Line = SP500 Hourly Chart Source: DealBook 360
    8. 8. Oil <ul><li>Oil vs. USD/CAD </li></ul><ul><li>Inverse correlation </li></ul>Source: Bloomberg
    9. 9. Geopolitics <ul><li>Currency markets avoid political risk </li></ul><ul><li>Sell first, ask questions later </li></ul><ul><li>Capital seeks stability </li></ul>Source: DealBook 360 Source: DealBook 360
    10. 10. Gold AUD/USD and Gold: Ignore the divergence at your own risk? Source: DealBook 360
    11. 11. Micro Factors <ul><li>Key Micro Data </li></ul><ul><li>NFP (Labor Data) </li></ul><ul><li>ISM (Manufacturing and Services Data) </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation </li></ul><ul><li>Sentiment </li></ul>
    12. 12. Labor Data <ul><li>Why is labor so critical to the economy? </li></ul><ul><li>Jobs = Greater Income = Greater Spending = Greater Growth </li></ul><ul><li>In G-3 economies the consumer represents between 60%-70% of GDP </li></ul>
    13. 13. Labor Data – US Unemployment Rate Source: Bloomberg
    14. 14. Labor Data – EZ Unemployment Rate Source: Bloomberg
    15. 15. Source: Bloomberg Labor Data: German Unemployment Rolls
    16. 16. ISM and PMI Surveys Measure Health of Business > 50 Generally Means Expansion < 50 Suggests Contraction ISM/PMI – State of Business
    17. 17. Source: Bloomberg Production Data – US Manufacturing ISM
    18. 18. Source: Bloomberg Production Data – US Services ISM
    19. 19. Source: Bloomberg Production Data – EZ Composite PMI
    20. 20. <ul><li>Inflation is the Key Driver of Interest Rates </li></ul><ul><li>All things being equal: </li></ul><ul><li>Hotter inflation generally leads to higher interest rates </li></ul><ul><li>Higher rates generally lead to higher currency </li></ul>Inflation – The Bane of CB’s
    21. 21. Source: Bloomberg US Headline CPI
    22. 22. Source: GFT CPI vs Oil
    23. 23. Source: Bloomberg EZ Headline CPI
    24. 24. Sentiment Can Create Its Own Reality Cautionary attitude could lead to retrenchment in spending and ultimately deceleration of growth. The Power of Sentiment
    25. 25. Source: Bloomberg US U of Mich
    26. 26. German IFO Source: Bloomberg
    27. 27. Monetary Policy <ul><li>Monetary Policy </li></ul><ul><li>Know The Players </li></ul><ul><li>Know The Mandates </li></ul><ul><li>Prepare Properly </li></ul>
    28. 28. Ben Bernanke The Academic Believes in Transparency Has Only Presided Over Rate Cuts
    29. 29. Jean Claude Trichet The Godfather  Price Stability Drives Policy  Too inflexible?
    30. 30. Masaaki Shirakawa The Conformist  Hemmed in by Stagnant Economy  Rising Yen
    31. 31. Mervyn King The Gentleman Banker Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place
    32. 32. Jean Pierre Roth The Conservative Swiss
    33. 33. Mark Carney The Newcomer
    34. 34. Glenn Stevens The Tough Veteran
    35. 35. Allan Bollard The Hawk
    36. 36. Macro Trade Example Macro Trade Dow drops, EUR/JPY follows Source: DealBook 360
    37. 37. Micro Trade Example Micro Trade EZ Trade Balance: -6.4B vs. -5.8 forecast Source: DealBook 360
    38. 38. Monetary Policy Trade Example Monetary Policy Trade RBA Cuts Rate by 100 bp Source: DealBook 360
    39. 39. <ul><li>GFT refers to Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. and all of its divisions, branches and subsidiaries, including Global Forex Trading, GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. and GFT Global Markets UK Limited. In the United Kingdom, GFT Global Markets UK Limited is authorized and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful. Trading of foreign exchange contracts, contracts for differences, derivatives and other investment products which are leveraged, can carry a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose more than the initial investment. In Australia, GFT means Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. ARBN 103 508 461, AFS License 226625. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) is available at www.gft.com.au. You should read and consider the PDS before making any decision to deal in GFT products. This [advertisement] is published by GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. (Company Registration Number 200717665N) in Singapore for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in any investment product or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such investment product. © 2009 Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. All rights reserved. </li></ul><ul><li>DISCLAIMER: This presentation and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this presentation for your general information. This presentation and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this presentation or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this presentation. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. CD08BKU.003.021809 </li></ul>Disclaimer

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