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Future of work - and how to get there

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Dr. Anja C. Wagner
Workshop presentation from Cross-Border seminar 2017 in Belgrade

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Future of work - and how to get there

  1. 1. FROLLEINFLOW FUTURE OF WORK EuroGuidance Cross-Border Seminar in Belgrade, Serbia Dr. Anja C. Wagner 5. October 2017 AND HOW WE GET THERE?
  2. 2. FROLLEINFLOW The world of tomorrow The times they are a-Changin Network society What happened to the jobs landscape? Lifelong learning How to keep track in this fast moving time? Institutional challenges Let’s collect good practices ... 1 2 3 4
  3. 3. FROLLEINFLOW Method: Design Thinking
  4. 4. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW 5 Stages in the Design Thinking Process
  5. 5. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Design Thinking as a Strategy for Innovation INNOVATION “Creative leadership isn’t about leaders simply becoming more creative. It’s about individuals leading for creativity. That means you, as a leader, must unlock the creative potential of your organization, no matter the industry. It’s your job to set the conditions for your organization to generate, embrace, and execute on new ideas. It’s a competitive imperative that will keep you ahead in the marketplace.” - Tim Brown, IDEO
  6. 6. FROLLEINFLOW FIRST STEP: Research
  7. 7. FROLLEINFLOW The world of tomorrow The times they are a-Changin Network society What happened to the jobs landscape? Lifelong learning How to keep track in this fast moving time? Institutional challenges Let’s collect good practices ... 1 2 3 4
  8. 8. FROLLEINFLOW The world of tomorrow The times they are a-Changin 1
  9. 9. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION? Carl Benedikt Frey & Michael A. Osborne September 17, 2013 Bild: Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy
  10. 10. FROLLEINFLOW 47 % .... of all US jobs at risk (2013)
  11. 11. FROLLEINFLOW
  12. 12. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW In 2015, the official dialogue process Work 4.0 was started (Ministry of Labour) http://www.bmas.de/EN/Services/Publi cations/a883-white-paper.html
  13. 13. FROLLEINFLOW Can a robot do my job?
  14. 14. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW A lot of studies signaled: Positive view of employee development in Germany
  15. 15. FROLLEINFLOW Work 4.0 Where are we heading? Two time horizons 1. What will our world look like in 20 years? 2. What is the way to get there?
  16. 16. FROLLEINFLOW Today Next election 2020 2030 20352025
  17. 17. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Global disruption through digitalization in all industries First Wave Second Wave Third Wave Impactonbusinessmodel Time Platforms / Software Deep Tech Thanks to Dr. Holger Schmidt | Netzoekonom.de We are here Hightech Media Music Retail Travel Telecommunications Cars Finance Logistics Energy Real Estate Construction Education Health / Pharma Engineering Agriculture Chemistry Mining
  18. 18. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW What are the drivers?
  19. 19. FROLLEINFLOW Demographic development Technical-economic developments Social developments Ageing society & staff Globalization Awareness for sustainability Shrinking society Digitalization Changing values Shortage of junior staff Automatization Diversity Extension of working life Acceleration with simultaneous complexity Feminisation Innovation pressure + cost pressure Customization Knowledge society + innovation society Work-Life-Balance as a life plan Urbanization Polarisation of society Thanks to Prof. Jutta Ramp | Institute for Employment and Employability
  20. 20. FROLLEINFLOW Demographic development Technical-economic developments Social developments Ageing society & staff Globalization Awareness for sustainability Shrinking society Digitalization Changing values Shortage of junior staff Automatization Diversity Extension of working life Acceleration with simultaneous complexity Feminisation Innovation pressure + cost pressure Customization Knowledge society + innovation society Work-Life-Balance as a life plan Urbanization Polarisation of society Thanks to Prof. Jutta Ramp | Institute for Employment and Employability
  21. 21. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW How is it exchanged around the globe?
  22. 22. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW The specific mixture at Silicon Valley
  23. 23. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Some say ... … it’s the attractiveness of the “californian ideology”
  24. 24. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW MOORE’S LAW = Doubling of processor speeds every 1-2 years
  25. 25. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Growth of the semiconductor industry enables global production siehe IHS Markit Study
  26. 26. FROLLEINFLOW
  27. 27. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW And this leads to visions ...
  28. 28. FROLLEINFLOW
  29. 29. FROLLEINFLOW
  30. 30. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Current global networking via submarine cables
  31. 31. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Expected developments until approx. 2020 because of mobile satellites
  32. 32. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Change of times
  33. 33. FROLLEINFLOW 8,000,000,000 2020 Siehe http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users/
  34. 34. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW We live in a global network society - all of us linked together via the internet.
  35. 35. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Design Thinking as a Strategy for Innovation INNOVATION We are here
  36. 36. FROLLEINFLOW SECOND STEP: Defining
  37. 37. FROLLEINFLOW The world of tomorrow The times they are a-Changin Network society What happened to the jobs landscape? Lifelong learning How to keep track in this fast moving time? Institutional challenges Let’s collect good practices ... 1 2 3 4
  38. 38. FROLLEINFLOW Network society What happened to the jobs landscape? 2
  39. 39. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Global disruption through digitalization in all industries Hightech Media Music Retail Travel Telecommunications Cars Finance Logistics Energy Real Estate Construction Education Health / Pharma Engineering Agriculture Chemistry Mining First Wave Second Wave Third Wave Impactonbusinessmodel Time Platforms / Software Deep Tech Thanks to Dr. Holger Schmidt | Netzoekonom.de We are here
  40. 40. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW CONSEQUENCES FOR THE LABOUR MARKET
  41. 41. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Diverse distortions caused by... 1. Plattforms as Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet usw. 2. Artificial intelligence as Bots, Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Robotics ... 3. Network society at global, regional, institutional & private levels 4. New workflows & new work cultures such as home office, open spaces etc.
  42. 42. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW NEW REQUIREMENTS FOR EMPLOYEES
  43. 43. FROLLEINFLOW “There is a need to retool yourself, and you should not expect to stop,” said Randall Stephenson, the chief and chairman of AT&T. People who do not spend five to 10 hours a week in online learning, he added, “will obsolete themselves with the technology.” The New York Times, Feb. 13, 2016
  44. 44. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW “If you don't want to keep reinventing yourself with the new technologies, please quit.” - AT&T
  45. 45. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW MACRO Education MACRO Further Education “If you don't want to keep reinventing yourself with the new technologies, please quit.” - AT&T
  46. 46. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW So far, traditional educational work has looked like this LEARNING OBJECTIVES METHODS CURRICULUM TEST
  47. 47. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Modern education 4.0 work would look like this 7 PILLARS OF LEARNING TIME - EVERYWHERE AND AT ANY TIME ROOM - F2F ONLY WHEN REQUIRED PACE - SELF-DETERMINED LEARNING PATHS - SELF-ORGANIZED TECHNOLOGY - DELIVERS CONTENT DIGITIZED CONTENT - INTERACTIVE NETWORKED - COACH / AI / P2P FLOWCAMPUS.com
  48. 48. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW “Wenn du dich nicht immer wieder neu mit den neuen Technologien erfinden magst, kündige bitte.” - AT&T The Economist, Feb. 18, 1999
  49. 49. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW MICRO MACRO Education MACRO Further Education “If you don't want to keep reinventing yourself with the new technologies, please quit.” - AT&T
  50. 50. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW On-the-fly learning in micro-steps is "on vogue"... © Bersin by Deloitte
  51. 51. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Macro learning makes sense if you want to learn something completely new
  52. 52. FROLLEINFLOW And what significance will official certificates have in the future?
  53. 53. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Practical experience counts in technical professions more than degrees Siehe Quartz vom 15.12.2016
  54. 54. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Consequences for the labour market 1. Cancellation of (old) formal qualifications for individuals 2. New opportunities in a connected world 3. Increased mobility on all sides 4. Every company becomes a media company? ⇒ more competition for attention 5. Network competence & personal responsibility increases on all sides
  55. 55. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW The times of knowledge transfer are almost over, as no one can predict the future and prepare others for it.
  56. 56. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Design Thinking as a Strategy for Innovation INNOVATION We are here
  57. 57. FROLLEINFLOW THIRD STEP: Concept
  58. 58. FROLLEINFLOW The world of tomorrow The times they are a-Changin Network society What happened to the jobs landscape? Lifelong learning How to keep track in this fast moving time? Institutional challenges Let’s collect good practices ... 1 2 3 4
  59. 59. FROLLEINFLOW 2 Lifelong learning How to keep track in this fast moving time? 3
  60. 60. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Competence (in the singular, not in the plural) ● Individual level ● Sozio-cultural level ● Sozio-technological level
  61. 61. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Lifelong learning already takes place in social networks! Day after day...
  62. 62. FROLLEINFLOW
  63. 63. FROLLEINFLOW
  64. 64. FROLLEINFLOW That’s education? Jane Hart: Top 100 Tools for Learning “A learning tool is any software or online tool or service that can be used for your own personal learning or for teaching or training.” 2016
  65. 65. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Jane Hart: 6th Annual Learning in the Workplace survey (2017) 7 PILLARS OF LEARNING TIME - EVERYWHERE AND AT ANY TIME ROOM - F2F ONLY WHEN REQUIRED PACE - SELF-DETERMINED LEARNING PATHS - SELF-ORGANIZED TECHNOLOGY - DELIVERS CONTENT DIGITIZED CONTENT - INTERACTIVE NETWORKED - COACH / AI / P2P
  66. 66. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW
  67. 67. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW More than 3/4 of all Germans are on social networks. Datengrundlage: ARD/ZDF-Onlinestudie 2016 7 PILLARS OF LEARNING TIME - EVERYWHERE AND AT ANY TIME ROOM - F2F ONLY WHEN REQUIRED PACE - SELF-DETERMINED LEARNING PATHS - SELF-ORGANIZED TECHNOLOGY - DELIVERS CONTENT DIGITIZED CONTENT - INTERACTIVE NETWORKED - COACH / AI / P2P Minimum weekly usage
  68. 68. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW The World Wide Web as a global learning environment siehe CB Insights: Reinventing School: 108 Ed Tech Startups Across Learning Management, Language Teaching, And More (3. Mai 2017)
  69. 69. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Since Q1 2017 a lot of money has been flowing into the market again... siehe CB Insights: Reinventing School: 108 Ed Tech Startups Across Learning Management, Language Teaching, And More (3. Mai 2017)
  70. 70. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW International offers
  71. 71. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW (Free) online courses from experts
  72. 72. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW MOOCs are a great EduMarketing instrument as well
  73. 73. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Personalized recommendations at LinkedIn Learning
  74. 74. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Online and/or offline, hybrid & in a glocal community
  75. 75. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW
  76. 76. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Much of it FOR FREE ==> Zero marginal cost economy
  77. 77. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW
  78. 78. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW
  79. 79. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW
  80. 80. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW
  81. 81. FROLLEINFLOW Each person chooses a different mixture of attractive experiences on various platforms
  82. 82. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Today, you can learn anything if you want to. And most of it will cost you nothing than your time … and your data ...
  83. 83. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Design Thinking as a Strategy for Innovation INNOVATION We are here
  84. 84. FROLLEINFLOW FOURTH STEP: Prototyping
  85. 85. FROLLEINFLOW The world of tomorrow The times they are a-Changin Network society What happened to the jobs landscape? Lifelong learning How to keep track in this fast moving time? Institutional challenges Let’s collect good practices ... 1 2 3 4
  86. 86. FROLLEINFLOW 2 Institutional challenges Let’s collect good practices ... 4
  87. 87. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Let's recapitulate: competence (in the singular, not in the plural) ● Individual level ● Sozio-cultural level ● Sozio-technological level
  88. 88. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Public systems are the slowest ...
  89. 89. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Macro Learning needs more Micro Flow
  90. 90. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW In the 21st century: We have to support more of those micro-phases... LEARNING OBJECTIVES METHODs CURRICULUM TEST 7 PILLARS OF LEARNING TIME - EVERYWHERE AND AT ANY TIME ROOM - F2F ONLY WHEN REQUIRED PACE - SELF-DETERMINED LEARNING PATHS - SELF-ORGANIZED TECHNOLOGY - DELIVERS CONTENT DIGITIZED CONTENT - INTERACTIVE NETWORKED - COACH / AI / P2P ? ?
  91. 91. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW And rely more on individual strengths than standardization LIFE DESIGN as a storytelling of one's own identity
  92. 92. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW It needs more socio-cultural and socio-technological frameworks Education 1.0 Teachers "school" learners in educational institutions Education 2.0 Learners use the Web (2.0) to empower themselves Education 4.0 New policy infrastructures for self-directed learning
  93. 93. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW It needs more socio-cultural and socio-technological frameworks Practice Social Learning Living at the pulse of time Develop an open mindset for the future Embrace the Net NEWSERVICES Education 4.0 New policy infrastructures for self-directed learning
  94. 94. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW New policy infrastructures 4.0 ... Unconditional learning assets from the government = People have a budget, which they can use for their own learning - they choose by themselves, what they want to learn Support to develop diverse interdisciplinary working and learning spaces = Makerspaces, CoWorking-Spaces, Repair shops, Libraries, Documenta, Urban Gardening Projects etc. pp. Building platforms, clouds, content, analytics & technical support “as a service”
  95. 95. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Let’s introduce: BOB, your personal learning coach (in France)
  96. 96. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Let’s introduce: BOB, your personal learning coach (in France)
  97. 97. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Let’s introduce: BOB, your personal learning coach (in France)
  98. 98. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Let’s introduce: BOB, your personal learning coach (in France)
  99. 99. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Design Thinking as a Strategy for Innovation INNOVATION We are here
  100. 100. FROLLEINFLOW FIFTH STEP: Testing
  101. 101. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW What are your good practices in your countries?
  102. 102. FROLLEINFLOWFROLLEINFLOW Dr. Anja C. Wagner Twitter: @acwagner Mail: acw@frolleinflow.com FROLLEINFLOW GbR http://frolleinflow.com FLOWCAMPUS http://flowcampus.com

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