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Mindi Faber-De Anda & Jay Olberding: EIA Rolls Out Ethanol by Rail Data

EIA Rolls Out Ethanol by Rail Data

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Mindi Faber-De Anda & Jay Olberding: EIA Rolls Out Ethanol by Rail Data

  1. 1. EIA Rolls Out Ethanol By Rail Data Mindi Farber-DeAnda Team Lead Biofuels & Emerging Technologies Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration Kelly Davis Director of Regulatory Affairs Renewable Fuels Association Jay Olberding Consultant PLG Consulting
  2. 2. www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis EIA’s forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data For National Ethanol Conference February 17, 2016 | New Orleans, LA By Mindi Farber DeAnda, EIA Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Jay Olberding, PLG
  3. 3. EIA mission: independent statistics and analysis 3 • EIA was created by the U.S. Congress in 1977 • EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment • EIA is the Nation's premier source of energy information and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government • EIA does not propose or advocate any policy positions Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016
  4. 4. EIA petroleum and biofuel data use Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs) 4 Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016
  5. 5. The Midwest (PADD 2) is where almost all ethanol is produced Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 5 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 PADD5 PADD4 PADD3 PADD2 PADD1 Ethanol Production by PADD Source: EIA
  6. 6. The East Coast (PADD 1) is where most ethanol is blended with gasoline Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 6 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 PADD5 PADD4 PADD3 PADD2 PADD1 Ethanol Refiner and Blender Net Input by PADD thousand b/d Source: EIA
  7. 7. EIA summary statistics are split into supply and disposition 7 Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 SUPPLY DISPOSITION Production Stocks withdrawn Adjustments Refinery/Blender Input Imports Exports Inter-PADD Receipts Inter-PADD Shipments • By definition supply must equal disposition • For ethanol the elements are • Receipt and Shipment modes include pipeline, waterborne, and rail • Net Receipts = Receipts - Shipments
  8. 8. 2010 U.S. regional ethanol balances (thousand b/d) 8 Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 Note: *Implied rail is calculated to make supply equal disposition **Regional adjustments are calculated as a % of the U.S. adjustment East Coast Midwest Gulf Coast Rocky Mountain West Coast U.S. SUPPLY PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5 Production + 20 806 18 14 10 867 Imports + 0 0 0 0 0 1 Net Inter-PADD receipts + 310 (566) 110 4 142 Pipeline 0 0 0 0 0 Tanker and Barge 4 17 13 0 0 Implied Rail 306 (583) 97 4 142 Adjustments + (21) (15) (8) (1) (10) (56) DISPOSITION Stocks withdrawn - (1) 2 2 0 0 4 Refinery/Blender Input - 302 216 108 16 141 783 Exports - 8 6 11 0 1 26 Source: EIA
  9. 9. 2014 U.S. regional ethanol balances (thousand b/d) 9 Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 Note: *Implied rail is calculated to make supply equal disposition **Regional adjustments are calculated as a % of the U.S. adjustment East Coast Midwest Gulf Coast Rocky Mountain West Coast U.S. SUPPLY PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5 Production + 24 855 22 14 18 934 Imports + 3 0 1 0 1 5 Net Inter-PADD receipts + 300 (594) 146 13 135 Pipeline 0 0 0 0 0 Tanker and Barge 6 (17) 11 0 0 Implied Rail 294 (577) 135 13 135 Adjustments + (3) (2) (1) 0 (1) (8) DISPOSITION Stocks withdrawn - 2 2 2 0 1 6 Refinery/Blender Input - 319 238 135 27 150 869 Exports - 4 19 30 0 2 55 Source: EIA
  10. 10. Ethanol net receipts by mode reveal that rail is the primary mode of ethanol shipments out of Midwest (PADD 2) 10 Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 PADD1 PADD2 PADD3 PADD4 PADD5 Net shipment -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 PADD1 PADD2 PADD3 PADD4 PADD5 Waterborne Implied Rail thousand barrels per day 2014 Net receipt 2010 Source: EIA
  11. 11. EIA’s new data series on ethanol-by-rail movements Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 11 • Similar data has already been published for crude oil – www.eia.gov/petroleum/transportation • Developed from Surface Transportation Board (STB) administrative data • Will be published in the coming months • Credible and publicly-available information on ethanol-by-rail movements, including historical monthly data back to 2010 • Inter- and intra-regional ethanol-by-rail movements improve EIA’s ethanol balances by providing additional transparency on shipments and receipts • EIA has also developed tools to aggregate and analyze weekly rail performance data reported to STB
  12. 12. 12 Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 Estimated monthly carloads STB Carload Waybill Sample EIA products (aggregated statistics in barrels) • Inter/intra-PADD movements • Canada imports/exports • Class I and short line RRs that meet STB carload threshold • Sampled RR bills-of- lading • Highly detailed 1 2 3 • Apply expansion factors • Apportion rail movement by month, PADD • All railroads Estimate balance of rail movements 4 • U.S.-Canadian carloads • Convert carloads to barrels • Regressions for near- month estimates EIA’s ethanol-by-rail data process integrates multiple data streams
  13. 13. 13 Source: STB through Annual Confidentiality Agreement Update rate and lag time: Daily data provided monthly/quarterly with a 2-month lag Companies reporting: Both Class I and short-line companies (Class II and III) Data elements: company, date, carloads and tonnage by data type, origination, termination, and interchange points Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 STB Carload Waybill Sample Data
  14. 14. Data issues with STB Carload Waybill Sample 14 Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 • Accounting date vs waybill date – EIA uses its own reporting period, which is the Waybill date plus estimated transit time(s) • Rule 11 moves around the Chicago area – More waybills originate in Chicago than terminate in Chicago • Changes to EIA’s existing ethanol balances – Once rail data is introduced, adjustments will be calculated to balance supply and disposition • Impacts on EIA’s gasoline product supplied – Ethanol adjustments will modify motor gasoline adjustments
  15. 15. Conversion of STB carload data to barrels 15 Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 • Expanded carloads are converted to barrels by – Carload weight * the density of ethanol • The greater of the billed vs actual weight found in the Waybill is used – Barrel per carload conversion factors are calculated quarterly
  16. 16. Estimating rail movements without STB data 16 Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 • STB provides the Waybill sample quarterly while EIA requires monthly data – The quarterly waybill is provided up to 2 months after quarter end • EIA estimates anywhere from 1 to 3 months of rail movements to meet the Petroleum Supply Monthly production schedule – A combination of time-series, regression models, and averages is used for the estimates
  17. 17. With the addition of ethanol, the title of the page will change and ethanol will be added as a drop down product Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 17 http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE_ RAILNA_A_EPC0_RAIL_MBBL_M.htm
  18. 18. Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 18 Ethanol plants are concentrated in the Midwest Ethanol Plants - million gallons per year (MGY)
  19. 19. Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 19 Rail shipments originate near ethanol plants in the Midwest and terminate on the coasts
  20. 20. Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 20 Ethanol/gasoline blending terminals are spread throughout the country
  21. 21. Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 21 2010 ethanol-by-rail map 10 350 700 Thousands of barrels per day Ethanol plant Legend
  22. 22. Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 22 2014 ethanol-by-rail map 10 350 700 Thousands of barrels per day Ethanol plant Legend
  23. 23. Analyzing the STB rail service issues data (EP 724) Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 23 • In October 2014 the STB ordered the class I railroads to provide weekly data on 10 performance metrics 1. System average train speed by unit train type 2. System average terminal dwell 3. Cars online by car type 4. Average dwell time at origin by unit train type 5. Trains held greater than 6 hours by unit train type 6. Cars not moved in greater than 120 hours and 48 hours by unit train type 7. Grain cars loaded and billed 8. Grain cars: past due, average days late, new orders, orders filled/canceled 9. Grain trains: plan vs. performance 10.Coal trains: plan vs. performance • Data is publicly available on the STB website and might be useful in informing the EIA rail data • EIA has an approach to scrape and analyze data for crude and ethanol unit trains
  24. 24. EIA rail service scraper tool – select commodity and railroad data to view Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 24
  25. 25. EIA rail service scraper tool – average speed, dwell time, and number of loaded cars Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 25
  26. 26. EIA rail service scraper tool – empty cars Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 26
  27. 27. EIA rail service scraper tool – BNSF loaded and empty cars Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 27
  28. 28. 28 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy U.S. Movements of Crude Oil By Rail | www.eia.gov/petroleum/transportation Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016

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EIA Rolls Out Ethanol by Rail Data

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