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Erste Group –8th Capital Markets Day9 December 2011, ViennaSlovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potentialJozef Síke...
Disclaimer –Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements− THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT HAS NOT BEEN ...
Presentation topics− Doing business in Slovakia− Slovak macroeconomic environment    − Economic growth outlook    − Level ...
Doing business in Slovakia –Quick convergence towards eurozone GDP/capita                                                 ...
Presentation topics− Doing business in Slovakia− Slovak macroeconomic environment    − Economic growth outlook    − Level ...
Macroeconomic environment –Eurozone country with high growth potential− Economy grew by 3.3% yoy in 1-9 11                ...
Macroeconomic environment –Favourable public finances, but still high unemployment− S&P (A+) raised outlook to positive in...
Macroeconomic environment –Market perception: Development of Slovak CDS                                    Development of ...
Presentation topics− Doing business in Slovakia− Slovak macroeconomic environment    − Economic growth outlook    − Level ...
Banking market development –Competitive position− Strong banking market                                             Top 5 ...
Banking market development –Balanced market with moderate growth− Among the strongest markets in Europe                   ...
Presentation topics− Doing business in Slovakia− Slovak macroeconomic environment    − Economic growth outlook    − Level ...
SLSP: business performance review –Post-acquisition track record of SLSP                                                  ...
SLSP: business performance review –Continuously improving cost efficiency− Operating result to increase the seventh       ...
SLSP: business performance review –Margins and profitability− Growing net interest margin                                 ...
SLSP: business performance review –Customer loans and deposits (Segment view)− SLSP showed moderate growth of             ...
SLSP: business performance review –Credit risk management – NPL & NPL coverage− No foreign exchange risk                  ...
SLSP: business performance review –Credit risk management – RWA, CA & Risk costs− Comfortable level of capital adequacy an...
Presentation topics− Doing business in Slovakia− Slovak macroeconomic environment    − Economic growth outlook    − Level ...
Conclusion− Slovakia has high growth potential    − One of the fastest growing countries within eurozone in 2011    − In t...
Presentation topics− Doing business in Slovakia− Slovak macroeconomic environment    − Economic growth outlook    − Level ...
Key local entity data (IFRS, consolidated) –Slovenska sporitelnaKey figures and ratios                          1-9 11    ...
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Erste Group CMD11 - Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential

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Doing business in Slovakia − Slovak macroeconomic environment − Economic growth outlook − Level of indebtedness − Market perception − Banking market development − Competitive environment − Growth prospects− SLSP: business performance review − Operating performance overview − Credit risk management − Development of customer loans and deposits − Conclusion

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Erste Group CMD11 - Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential

  1. 1. Erste Group –8th Capital Markets Day9 December 2011, ViennaSlovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potentialJozef Síkela, CEO, Slovenská sporiteľňa
  2. 2. Disclaimer –Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements− THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED AND NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED IS MADE AS TO, AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON, THE FAIRNESS, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR CORRECTNESS OF THIS INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN.− CERTAIN STATEMENTS CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE STATEMENTS OF FUTURE EXPECTATIONS AND OTHER FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS THAT ARE BASED ON MANAGEMENT’S CURRENT VIEWS AND ASSUMPTIONS AND INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR EVENTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED IN SUCH STATEMENTS.− NONE OF ERSTE GROUP OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, ADVISORS OR REPRESENTATIVES SHALL HAVE ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) FOR ANY LOSS HOWSOEVER ARISING FROM ANY USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ITS CONTENT OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THIS DOCUMENT.− THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR INVITATION TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SHARES AND NEITHER IT NOR ANY PART OF IT SHALL FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED UPON IN CONNECTION WITH ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT WHATSOEVER.9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 2 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  3. 3. Presentation topics− Doing business in Slovakia− Slovak macroeconomic environment − Economic growth outlook − Level of indebtedness − Market perception− Banking market development − Competitive environment − Growth prospects− SLSP: business performance review − Operating performance overview − Credit risk management − Development of customer loans and deposits− Conclusion− Appendix9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 3 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  4. 4. Doing business in Slovakia –Quick convergence towards eurozone GDP/capita   Decade of fast convergence towards EU average in GDP level, stable inflation,Macro economy relatively low government debt – second CEE country to adopt euro in 2009 ?  Political environment relatively predictable, with some volatile periods (earlyPolitics elections in March 2012, change of government expected)   Profitable market with low L/D ratio, healthy loan portfolios and reasonable riskBanking market profiles of most banks; with room for growthCompetition  Competitive market with >30 banks, top 3 banks (led by Slovenská sporiteľňa) service more than 50% of the market    Slovenská sporiteľňa is the leading bank in Slovakia by market share, profit andSlovenská efficiency; dominating retail market, with very good operating profitability andsporiteľňa excellent efficiency indicators   Slovenská sporiteľňa expected to remain one of the most profitable and efficientOutlook for SLSP subsidiaries of Erste Group9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 4 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  5. 5. Presentation topics− Doing business in Slovakia− Slovak macroeconomic environment − Economic growth outlook − Level of indebtedness − Market perception− Banking market development − Competitive environment − Growth prospects− SLSP: business performance review − Operating performance overview − Credit risk management − Development of customer loans and deposits− Conclusion− Appendix9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 5 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  6. 6. Macroeconomic environment –Eurozone country with high growth potential− Economy grew by 3.3% yoy in 1-9 11 Key economic indicators − Industrial production has clearly been the driver of the economy 14 5.9% 8% in EUR thousand − Household consumption stagnates 12 12.1 12.7 13.1 6% 10 11.9 11.6 4% − Tight trade links with EU – short-term risk of 8 4.2% 2% 3.0% slowdown 6 1.0% 0% 4 -4.9% -2% 2 -4%− In the medium-term, Slovakia should 0 -6% 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e still enjoy above-average growth within EU GDP per capita Real GDP growth − Reasons for convergence include transfer of technology and know-how, intensified Analysis of growth drivers financial intermediation, legal and institutional 20% 12.9% improvements 6.1%4.7% 4.4% 10% 0.2% 2.5% -0.3% 0%− Government’s fall and eurozone -10% 0.2% 0.0% slowdown is a risk for fiscal -20% -31.0% consolidation -30% -40% − Early elections to take place in March 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e − Government sees the 2012 fiscal deficit at Private consumption (yoy growth) Fixed capital formation (yoy growth) 4.6% of GDP instead of original plan of 3.8%9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 6 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  7. 7. Macroeconomic environment –Favourable public finances, but still high unemployment− S&P (A+) raised outlook to positive in * Public deficit and debt* 10 August United States Ireland Fiscal deficit to GDP (2012e) 9 − Moody’s: A1, stable outlook 8 UK 7 − Fitch: A+, stable outlook 6 Croatia France Slovakia Belgium 5 Portugal 4 Poland Austria− Unemployment rate to remain elevated 3 Romania Czech Rep Hungary Italy − Despite economic recovery, labour market 2 1 Germany has not improved considerably, weighing on 0 private consumption 25 50 75 100 125 150 Public debt to GDP (2012e)− Wage growth moderated from 8% p.a. in Unemployment vs inflation vs wage growth 2005-08 to 3% p.a. in 2009-11 (CAGR) 16% 14.4% 14.1% 13.3% 12.1%− VAT hike and higher energy prices 12% 9.6% pushed inflation up to ~4% in 2011 8% 8.1% − CPI to slow down to 2.5-3% in 2012 3.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.0% 4% 2.7% 4.6% 1.6% 1.0% 3.2% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e Unemployment CPI (average) Nominal wage growth * bubble size indicates public debt per capita9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 7 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  8. 8. Macroeconomic environment –Market perception: Development of Slovak CDS Development of CDS prices 700 600 500 400 in bps 300 200 100 0 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Slovak 5yr CDS Italy 5yr CDS Germany 5yr CDS Austria 5yr CDS9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 8 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  9. 9. Presentation topics− Doing business in Slovakia− Slovak macroeconomic environment − Economic growth outlook − Level of indebtedness − Market perception− Banking market development − Competitive environment − Growth prospects− SLSP: business performance review − Operating performance overview − Credit risk management − Development of customer loans and deposits− Conclusion− Appendix9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 9 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  10. 10. Banking market development –Competitive position− Strong banking market Top 5 Slovak banks – − 31 banks (94% foreign owned) market share by total assets (Q3 2011) − 3 dominant players (SLSP, VUB banka, Tatrabanka) − Some internet banks entering the market 19.8% 19.3% − Ongoing consolidation – less banks and more foreign subsidiaries on the market 15.9%− SLSP: leading retail bank − No. 1 by total assets − No. 1 by retail loans (housing and consumer) 9.6% − No. 1 by retail deposits 7.0%− Branch network covering all of Slovakia − 289 branches across the country− The largest customer base SLSP VUB TATRA CSOB UNICR − More than 2.4 million customers9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 10 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  11. 11. Banking market development –Balanced market with moderate growth− Among the strongest markets in Europe Banking market summary − Loan-to-deposit ratio at 88% 94% 80 90% 100% 85% 84% − Strong capital and liquidity positions 83% 80% in EUR billion − No FX-lending in retail 60 63 55 53 55 60% − And only 2% of corporate sector loans 40 47 40% − ROE around 15% 20 20% 0 0%− Central bank released its stress test in 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 October 2011 Total assets Total assets/GDP − Result: Slovak banks are very resistant Growth rates - household loans and deposits− Banking market growth in 2011 50% − Retail loans outperformed corporate loans 40% 39% 30% − Deposit growth driven by retail sector 30% 25% − Growth expected for 2012 20% 13% 10% 12% 10% 5% 7%4% − Banking tax introduced in 2012 0% − 0.4% of non-retail deposits which is favourable -2% -10% for SLSP 2007 2008 2009 2010 1-9 2011 Household loans Household deposits9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 11 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  12. 12. Presentation topics− Doing business in Slovakia− Slovak macroeconomic environment − Economic growth outlook − Level of indebtedness − Market perception− Banking market development − Competitive environment − Growth prospects− SLSP: business performance review − Operating performance overview − Credit risk management − Development of customer loans and deposits− Conclusion− Appendix9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 12 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  13. 13. SLSP: business performance review –Post-acquisition track record of SLSP SLSPs operating profit history 350 339 300 272 267 268 130 250 61 207 89 200 160 157 42 146 150 134 17 3 120 1 11 75 209 207 100 165 177 142 123 140 120 111 50 94 0 -19 -50 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1-9 11 Post-provision profit Risk provisionsBased on consolidated IFRS local entity data9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 13 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  14. 14. SLSP: business performance review –Continuously improving cost efficiency− Operating result to increase the seventh Segment operating performance consecutive year in 2011 600 469 499 537 397 414 − Net interest income on stable upwards trend thanks 400 315 to growing retail business 222 249 247 in EUR million 179 − Net fee income positively impacted by increased 200 client transactions 0 − Highest operating profitability among Slovak banks -200 (167) (218) (247) (250) (222)− Operating expenses declined by 3.6% yoy -400 2007 2008 2009 2010 1-9 11 − Strict and continuous cost management leading to decline in cost income ratio Operating income Operating expenses Operating result Segment cost/income ratio Segment operating income 60% 600 537 499 4 55.0% 500 469 8 55% 107 414 52.7% 397 20 105 50.0% in EUR million 400 14 108 83 50% 92 300 45% 200 427 41.3% 386 340 334 40.2% 291 40% 100 0 -4 35% 2007 2008 2009 2010 1-9 11 2007 2008 2009 2010 1-9 11 (100) Net interest income Net fee and commission income Net trading result9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 14 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  15. 15. SLSP: business performance review –Margins and profitability− Growing net interest margin SLSP: Net interest margin − Disciplined pricing helped to foster NIM 4.5% 4.46% despite low interest rate environment 4.35% − Asset side margin 3.68% 4.03% 3.97% 3.99% − Liability side margin 1.54% 4.0% 3.5%− Sustainable track record of 2007 2008 2009 2010 1-9 11 profitability SLSP: Return on equity − Focused business model 25% − Prudent risk taking 19.8% 20.4% 20% 18.7% 17.7% − Rigorous cost management 15% − Constant efficiency improvements 10% − Reasonable banking market 5% 3.9% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 1-9 11 NIM and ROE is based on country of origination concept, not segment view.9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 15 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  16. 16. SLSP: business performance review –Customer loans and deposits (Segment view)− SLSP showed moderate growth of Segment Slovakia - loans; deposits stable in 2011 Customer loans by Basel II customer segment − Loan growth as of Sep 2011 at 6% y/y 8 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 − Deposits base stable 6 0.1 0.1 in EUR billion 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 4 0.3− Loan book dominated by private 2 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 individuals 0 − Two thirds of retail business are Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 secured housing loans Retail - Private individuals Retail - Micros SME/local corporates Municipalities − Housing loans key driving factor (12% ytd growth) Segment Slovakia - Customer loans, deposits − No FX lending in retail 8 7.6 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.0− Retail deposits dominate in bank’s 6 5.5 5.2 5.7 5.7 in EUR billion 4.5 portfolio (77%) 4 − Loan-to-deposit ratio 77.9% 2 − Strong competition for deposits, yet 0 volumes remain stable 2007 2008 2009 2010 1-9 11 EOP customer loans EOP customer deposits9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 16 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  17. 17. SLSP: business performance review –Credit risk management – NPL & NPL coverage− No foreign exchange risk Segment Slovakia - Customer loans by currency− Comfortable average portfolio LTV on 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% secured portfolio 80% − 52.1% LTV on housing loans as of Sep 11 60% 99.6% 99.6% 99.6% 99.6% 99.6% 40%− Delinquencies improved in 2011 due to 20% − Disciplined underwriting leading to lower 0% volume of new defaults in retail compared to Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 2010 EUR (LCY) Other − Regular work-out activity (write-offs and NPL sale) Segment Slovakia - NPL ratio vs NPL coverage− Solid and stabilised coverage ratio 30% 82.1% 81.9% 84.6% 85.4% 85.4% 100% − 85.4% excl. collateral 25% 80% − 129.9% incl. collateral 20% 60% 15% 8.3% 8.0% 40% 10% 7.8% 7.7% 7.6%− Commercial real estate segment tends to 5% 20% show higher but manageable risk 0% 0% − Downsizing the exposure Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 NPL ratio NPL coverage (excl collateral)9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 17 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  18. 18. SLSP: business performance review –Credit risk management – RWA, CA & Risk costs− Comfortable level of capital adequacy and Tier I SLSP (standalone) - ratio in 2011 RWA, capital adequacy & tier 1 ratio 14.9% − Capital adequacy 14.9%, Tier 1 ratio 11.1% 25 13.3% 15% as of Sep 2011 20 10.5% 10.1% 9.8% in EUR billion 11.1% 10% 15 10.5%− Decrease of RWA driven by 8.1% 8.9% 8.7% − Decrease of LGD due to improvement of collection 10 7.5 5% 5.6 6.7 6.6 6.2 process in 2011 5 − Favorable development of default rates in retail 0 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sep 11− 9th consecutive quarter of decline in risk costs RWA Capital adequacy Tier 1 ratio − 2011 risk cost of 1.1% expected on disciplined underwriting Segment Slovakia - SLSP (standalone) Risk costs Default rate development 10% 175 8% 8.5% 148 150 8% 6.9% 7.2% 128 6.2% 125 6% in EUR million 5.9% 6% 5.3% 4.9% 100 3.7% 79 4% 4.0% 3.8% 3.0% 75 57 4% 3.0% 47 2.2% 4.0% 50 1.3% 2% 2% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3% 2.2% 25 1.5% 0% 0 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 1-9 11 2007 2008 2009 2010 1-9 11 Risk provisions Risk costs as % of customer loans Housing loans SMEs Consumer loans9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 18 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  19. 19. Presentation topics− Doing business in Slovakia− Slovak macroeconomic environment − Economic growth outlook − Level of indebtedness − Market perception− Banking market development − Competitive environment − Growth prospects− SLSP: business performance review − Operating performance overview − Credit risk management − Development of customer loans and deposits− Conclusion− Appendix9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 19 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  20. 20. Conclusion− Slovakia has high growth potential − One of the fastest growing countries within eurozone in 2011 − In the medium-term, Slovakia will have above-average growth − However, government’s fall and eurozone slowdown is a risk for fiscal consolidation− Well balanced banking market − L/D ratio of the sector below 90% − Slovak banks are well capitalised and already meet core tier 1 requirements (effective June 2012) − Due to debt crisis, growth rates expect to slow down in 2012− Slovenská sporiteľňa: excellent efficiency indicators − The bank has very good operating profitability and the lowest cost-income ratio among top 3 banks − Keeping the leading position in retail business − Improving risk costs and default rates9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 20 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  21. 21. Presentation topics− Doing business in Slovakia− Slovak macroeconomic environment − Economic growth outlook − Level of indebtedness − Market perception− Banking market development − Competitive environment − Growth prospects− SLSP: business performance review − Operating performance overview − Credit risk management − Development of customer loans and deposits− Conclusion− Appendix9 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 21 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential
  22. 22. Key local entity data (IFRS, consolidated) –Slovenska sporitelnaKey figures and ratios 1-9 11 1-9 10 Rate and margin environmentCost/income ratio 39.3% 42.6%Return on equity 20.4% 15.3% 100% 8% Sep 11 Dec 10 Change 78.0% 77.3% 77.9% 74.5% 75.5%Erste Group stake 100.0% 100.0% 80%Solvency ratio 14.9% 13.2% 6% 60%Employees 4,161 4,004 3.9% 4%Branches 289 291 (0.7%) 40% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5%Customers (in m) 2.5 2.5 (2.2%) 1.3% 1.4% 2% 20% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0%Market share - retail loans 25.8% 26.2%Market share - retail deposits 26.1% 27.1% 0% 0%Market share - corporate loans 11.7% 11.4% Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11Market share - corporate deposits 9.9% 9.2%Market share - total assets 19.8% 20.0% Loan/deposit ratio (eop) 1m EURIBOR (eop) Net interest margin (ytd)in EUR million 1-9 11 1-9 10 Change in EUR million Sep 11 Dec 10 ChangeNet interest income 351.3 331.7 5.9% Loans and advances to credit institutions 654 1,253 (47.8%)Risk provisions for loans and advances (60.8) (101.0) (39.8%) Loans and advances to customers 6,578 6,075 8.3%Net fee and commission income 90.2 82.4 9.5% Risk provisions for loans and advances (413) (394) 4.8%Net trading result 0.8 5.7 (86.4%) Financial assets - at fair value through profit or loss 28 44 (35.1%)General administrative expenses (173.9) (179.0) (2.8%) Financial assets - available for sale 1,007 905 11.2%Other operating result (15.2) (21.9) 30.4% Financial assets - held to maturity 2,546 2,285 11.4%Result from financial assets - FV (4.6) (0.4) na Other assets 910 860 5.9%Result from financial assets - AfS (2.0) 1.7 na Total assets 11,310 11,028 2.6%Result from financial assets - HtM 0.0 0.0 na Interest-bearing assets 10,400 10,168 2.3%Pre-tax profit from continuing operations 185.6 119.2 55.7% Deposits by banks 1,028 1,165 (11.7%)Taxes on income (38.6) (24.0) 60.5% Customer deposits 8,449 8,158 3.6%Post-tax profit from continuing operations 147.0 95.1 54.5% Debt securities in issue 370 395 (6.4%)Post-tax profit from discontinuing operations 0.0 0.0 na Other liabilities 458 380 20.5%Net profit for the period 147.0 95.1 54.5% Total equity 1,005 929 8.2% Attributable to non-controlling interests (0.0) 0.2 na Attributable to non-controlling interests 3 3 (0.7%) Attributable to owners of the parent 147.0 94.9 54.9% Attributable to owners of the parent 1,003 927 8.2%*) Market share data is as of Sep 20119 December 2011 8th CMDVienna 22 Slovakia: Eurozone country with high growth potential

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