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Profitably Launching Jelly Splash
to #1: A Marketing Postmortem
Eric Benjamin Seufert
Head of Marketing, Wooga
Who am I?
Who am I?
Head of Marketing at Wooga
Who am I?
Head of Marketing at Wooga
Freemium Economics
Presentation Structure
Development @ Wooga
Prototype
Development @ Wooga
Prototype
Production Begins
Development @ Wooga
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Development @ Wooga
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Development @ Wooga
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Development @ Wooga
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga
Development @ Wooga
Development @ Wooga
● Inverted pyramid product pipeline
Development @ Wooga
● Inverted pyramid product pipeline
● Small teams developing many prototypes
Development @ Wooga
● Inverted pyramid product pipeline
● Small teams developing many prototypes
● Stop projects early
Development @ Wooga
● Inverted pyramid product pipeline
● Small teams developing many prototypes
● Stop projects early
● 2...
What is Jelly Splash?
What is Jelly Splash?
● Match-3 style puzzle game
What is Jelly Splash?
● Match-3 style puzzle game
● Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013
What is Jelly Splash?
● Match-3 style puzzle game
● Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013
● Launched globally Wednesday, A...
What is Jelly Splash?
● Match-3 style puzzle game
● Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013
● Launched globally Wednesday, A...
Presentation Structure
Marketing for Mobile Games
Marketing for Mobile Games
“I don’t need to run mobile
user acquisition. If I make a
great game, it will grow on
its own.”
Marketing for Mobile Games
“I need mobile user
acquisition because lots of
great games are competing
for attention from us...
Marketing for Mobile Games
Goals of Marketing Team:
Marketing for Mobile Games
Goals of Marketing Team:
1. Scale
Marketing for Mobile Games
Goals of Marketing Team:
1. Scale
2. Profit
Marketing for Mobile Games
CPI = / CTR / IRCPM
1000
Marketing for Mobile Games
CPI =
Market-based
/ CTR / IRCPM
1000
Marketing for Mobile Games
CPI =
Market-based Game dependent
CPM
1000
/ CTR / IR
Marketing for Mobile Games
CPITAM
Marketing for Mobile Games
How to maximize TAM?
Marketing Starts
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga
Marketing Starts
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga
Marketing for Mobile Games
“I don’t need to run mobile
user acquisition. If I make a
great game, it will grow on
its own.”
Marketing for Mobile Games
Who defines great?
Marketing for Mobile Games
Who defines great?
Marketing for Mobile Games
or
Who defines great?
Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:
Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:
(for a given game mechanic)
Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:
(for a given game mechanic)
• Market size assessment
Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:
(for a given game mechanic)
• Market size assessment
• Demographic fit
Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:
(for a given game mechanic)
• Market size assessment
• Demographic fit
• Target...
Presentation Structure
Data-Driven Development
Analytics
Data-Driven Development
Analytics Experimentation
Data-Driven Development
Analytics Experimentation Iteration
Analytics at Wooga
BI
Product
GameTeam1
GameTeam2
GameTeam3
Analyst Analyst Analyst
}
}DataInfrastructure
Presentation Structure
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga
Soft Launch?
Soft Launch?
● Player feedback
Soft Launch?
● Player feedback
● Market feedback
Soft Launch?
● Player feedback
● Market feedback
● Iteration Cycles
Soft Launch?
● Player feedback
● Market feedback
● Iteration Cycles
● Scalability
Length of Soft Launch
Length of Soft Launch
● Metrics targets
Length of Soft Launch
● Metrics targets
● Completeness of game
Clash of Clans
2 Months
CA: June 14, 2012 (Th)
US: August 2, 2012 (Th)
*iPhone / Downloaded
Pet Rescue Saga
1 Month
CA: May 16, 2013 (Th)
US: June 12, 2013 (Wed)
*iPhone / Downloaded
The Hobbit: KoME
<1 Month
CA: Oct 18, 2012 (Th)
US: Nov 8, 2012 (Th)
*iPhone / Downloaded
Boom Beach
Ongoing (5+ mths)
CA: Nov 8, 2013 (Fr)
AU: Jan 17, 2014 (Fr)
*iPhone / Downloaded
Soft Launch Focus
Soft Launch Focus
● Retention
Soft Launch Focus
● Retention
● Virality
Soft Launch Focus
● Retention
● Virality
What is Retention?
Retention is the most important
metric
Retention is the most important
metric
● Delight
Retention is the most important
metric
● Delight
● Player Lifetime
The Retention Curve
50% Day 1: 37 day total lifetime
The Retention Curve
40% Day 1: 30 day total lifetime
Retention is the most important
metric
● Delight
● Player Lifetime
● Lifetime Customer Value (LTV)
Calculating LTV
“Top Down”
• Curve fit monetization
Freemium Economics, Figure 5.13
Calculating LTV: “Top Down”
Calculating LTV
“Top Down”
• Curve fit monetization
“Bottoms Up”
• Retention curve, ARPDAU
Real Retention Rates
Step 1: Plot small sample of real retention rates
Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
Step 2: Curve fit a power function
Power function
Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
Step 3: Integrate the power function
Area under the curve
Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
“Segments” are distinct user groups
“Two methods for calculating LTV in a
spreadsheet”
LTV Timeline
LTV Timeline
180 Days
LTV Timeline
180 Days
• No discounting
LTV Timeline
180 Days
• No discounting
• Practical for casual game
LTV Timeline
180 Days
• No discounting
• Practical for casual game
365 Days
LTV Timeline
180 Days
• No discounting
• Practical for casual game
365 Days
• Not a “current asset”
LTV Timeline
180 Days
• No discounting
• Practical for casual game
365 Days
• Not a “current asset”
• Better for longer-ti...
Soft Launch Focus
● Retention
● Virality
Why is virality important?
Why is virality important?
Why is virality important?
● Virality compounds user base growth
Defining Virality
Defining Virality
● Nebulous concept
Defining Virality
● Nebulous concept
● Quantifying requires assumptions
Calculating Virality
Calculating Virality
● Virality expressed as “k-factor”
Calculating Virality
● Virality expressed as “k-factor”
● K-factor: additional users per new user
Calculating Virality
K-factor of 1 = truly
viral
Each new user
brings additional
new user
Freemium Economics, Figure 4.13
Calculating Virality
“Bottoms Up”
● Number of invites * invite conversion
Freemium Economics, Figure 7.3
Calculating Virality
“Top Down”
● Period-to-period, non-paid growth
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
DNU
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
DNU
“Organic”
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
DNU
“Organic”
Paid
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X +
1
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X +
1
“Organic”
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X +
1
“Organic”
Paid
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X +
1
“Organic”
Paid
Viral
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X +
1
“Organic”
Paid
Viral
Calculating Virality: Top Down
K-factor =
Viral Users (Day X + 1)
Paid + Organic (Day X)
Why is Virality important?
Why is Virality important?
Freemium Economics, Figure 8.4
Soft Launch Targets
● LTV
● LTV
● CPI
Soft Launch Targets
Soft Launch Targets
● LTV
● CPI
Soft Launch Targets
● LTV
● CPI
Presentation Structure
Soft Launch
Soft Launch
June 14, 2013
Soft Launch
June 14, 2013
2 Networks
Soft Launch
June 14, 2013
2 Networks
• Chartboost
Soft Launch
June 14, 2013
2 Networks
• Chartboost
• Facebook
Soft Launch
June 14, 2013
2 Networks
• Chartboost
• Facebook
Roughly 2k DNU
Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch
Entered CA App Store
Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch
Entered CA App Store
2K DNU
Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch
Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch
Entered CA App Store
2K DNU
“Ramp up” for
Global Launch
Soft Launch
● Strong Virality
Soft Launch
● Strong Virality Average K-factor 92%
Soft Launch
● Strong Virality
● Strong Retention
Average K-factor 92%
Soft Launch
● Strong Virality
● Strong Retention
Average K-factor 92%
Minimum 50% Day 1
Retention
Soft Launch
● Strong Virality
● Strong Retention
Average K-factor 92%
Minimum 50% Day 1
Retention 
Soft Launch
CPI (iPhone): $2
Soft Launch
CPI (iPhone): $2
CPI (iPhone): ?
Soft Launch
Average K-factor 92%
CPI $2.00
eCPI $1.04
Soft Launch
Average K-factor 92%
CPI $2.00
eCPI $1.04
If LTV > $1.04,
Soft Launch
Average K-factor 92%
CPI $2.00
eCPI $1.04
If LTV > $1.04, profit.
Presentation Structure
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga
Global Launch Strategy
Global Launch Strategy
• Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04
Global Launch Strategy
• Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04
• Large Total Addressable Market
Global Launch Strategy
• Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04
• Large Total Addressable Market
or
Ladder Launch
Ladder Launch
• Purely profitable campaigns
Ladder Launch
• Purely profitable campaigns
• Slowly grow user base
Ladder Launch
• Purely profitable campaigns
• Slowly grow user base
• Unit economics
Trampoline Launch
Trampoline Launch
• LTV < CPI
Trampoline Launch
• LTV < CPI
• Aim for chart position
Trampoline Launch
• LTV < CPI
• Aim for chart position
• Organic installs offset loss
Trampoline Launch
• LTV < CPI
• Aim for chart position
• Organic installs offset loss
• User base economics
Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic
Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic
Bigger network
effects
Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic
Bigger network
effects
Time...
Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic
Bigger network
effects
Time...
Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic
Bigger network
effects
Time...
Effects of Compounding
Effects of Compounding
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Upf...
Effects of Compounding
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Upf...
Effects of Compounding
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Upf...
Effects of Compounding
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Upf...
“So, Mcfly: Are you In or Out?”
Cost of Trampoline Launch?
Cost of Trampoline Launch?
• Goal of #1 chart position (iPhone / Downloaded /
US)
Cost of Trampoline Launch?
• Goal of #1 chart position (iPhone / Downloaded /
US)
• Assume US CPI of $2
Cost of Trampoline Launch?
• Goal of #1 chart position (iPhone / Downloaded /
US)
• Assume US CPI of $2
• Top Chart Positi...
Global Launch Strategy
Top 10
Installs2
66,458
Cost
(CPI = $2)
$132,916.00
August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)1
(1) Source...
Global Launch Strategy
Top 10 Top 3
Installs2
66,458 113,247
Cost
(CPI = $2)
$132,916.00 $226,494.86
August 2013, App Stor...
Global Launch Strategy
August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)1
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Installs2
66,458 113,247 140,875
Cost
(CPI = $...
Global Launch Strategy
K-factor ~= 1.0
August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)*
Adjusted
Top 10
Installs2
33,229
Cost
(CPI = $2)
$66,458.00
Global Launch Strategy
(1...
August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)*
Adjusted
Top 10 Top 3
Installs2
33,229 56,624
Cost
(CPI = $2)
$66,458.00 $113,247.43
...
August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)*
Adjusted
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Installs2
33,229 56,624 70,438
Cost
(CPI = $2)
$66,458.00 $1...
Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
NumberofInstalls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
NumberofInstalls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
30k
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
NumberofInstalls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
30k
56k
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
NumberofInstalls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
30k
56k
70k
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
NumberofInstalls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
30k
56k
70k
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Global Launch Strategy
Nothing in Freemium
Looks Like That.
Global Launch Strategy
NumberofInstalls
App Store Rank
This…
30k
Global Launch Strategy
NumberofInstalls
App Store Rank
…should be this:
30k
Global Launch Strategy
• Increasing exponential function
Global Launch Strategy
• Increasing exponential function
• Rate of price increases is increasing
Global Launch Strategy
• Increasing exponential function
• Rate of price increases is increasing
• #10 -> #3 -> #1 separat...
Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:
Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:
Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:
Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:
Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:
Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US
Cost1
$200,000
(1) iPhone
(2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 20...
Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US
Cost1
$200,000
Adj. Cost3
$104,166
(1) iPhone
(2) Based on Distimo e...
Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US DE
Cost1
$200,000 $37,600
Adj. Cost3
$104,166 $19,583
(1) iPhone
(2)...
Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US DE FR
Cost1
$200,000 $37,600 $26,000
Adj. Cost3
$104,166 $19,583 $13...
Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US DE FR NL
Cost1
$200,000 $37,600 $26,000 $20,800
Adj. Cost3
$104,166 ...
Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US DE FR NL BR
Cost1
$200,000 $37,600 $26,000 $20,800 $15,400
Adj. Cost...
Global Launch Strategy
Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:
(1) Assumes no featuring
Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:
• 92% k-factor
(1) Assumes no featuring
Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:
• 92% k-factor
• $2 CPI
(1) Assumes no featuring
Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:
• 92% k-factor
• $2 CPI
$150k for launch week
(1) Assumes no featuring
Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:
• 92% k-factor
• $2 CPI
$150k for launch week
Set budget to $250k
(1) Assumes no ...
Presentation Structure
Global Launch Logistics
Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch
Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch
• 1 country per day
Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch
• 1 country per day
Release game globally on Thursday
Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch
• 1 country per day
Release game globally on Thursday
23 Networks
Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch
• 1 country per day
Release game globally on Thursday
23 Networks
“Burst” campaig...
Global Launch Logistics
“Over-budgeted” by 25%
Global Launch Logistics
“Over-budgeted” by 25%
Social media outreach (Wooga has >20MM Facebook
fans)
Global Launch Logistics
“Over-budgeted” by 25%
Social media outreach (Wooga has >20MM Facebook
fans)
Cross-promotion from ...
Global Burst Schedule
Fri, 23/8
Global Burst Schedule
Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8
Global Burst Schedule
Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8 Sun, 25/8
Global Burst Schedule
Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8 Sun, 25/8 Wed, 28/8
Burst results
Burst results
● #1 in all target countries1
(1) iPhone / downloaded
Burst results
● #1 in all target countries1
● 1MM downloads in 5 days
(1) iPhone / downloaded
Burst results
● #1 in all target countries1
● 1MM downloads in 5 days
● Top 10 in other key countries
(1) iPhone / downloa...
Post Launch
• Strong retention meant revenue didn’t drop
after burst
Post Launch
DNU Daily USD
Presentation Structure
What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable
What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable
• Organic uplift from chart position:
What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable
• Organic uplift from chart position:
• Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone)
What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable
• Organic uplift from chart position:
• Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone)
• To...
What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable
• Organic uplift from chart position:
• Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone)
• To...
What We Learned
• Virality decay
What We Learned
• Virality decay
• K-factor decreased to 84% / eCPI increased by
28%
• Increased networks kept CPIs flat
4 Key Take-Aways
4 Key Take-Aways
• Long Soft Launch
4 Key Take-Aways
• Long Soft Launch
• LTV Estimation
4 Key Take-Aways
• Long Soft Launch
• LTV Estimation
• Market Analysis
4 Key Take-Aways
• Long Soft Launch
• LTV Estimation
• Market Analysis
• Virality is King Maker
Wooga
http://wooga.com
Questions?
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Eric Seufert, GDC 2014: Profitably launching Jelly Splash to #1, a marketing postmortem
Eric Seufert, GDC 2014: Profitably launching Jelly Splash to #1, a marketing postmortem
Eric Seufert, GDC 2014: Profitably launching Jelly Splash to #1, a marketing postmortem
Eric Seufert, GDC 2014: Profitably launching Jelly Splash to #1, a marketing postmortem
Eric Seufert, GDC 2014: Profitably launching Jelly Splash to #1, a marketing postmortem
Eric Seufert, GDC 2014: Profitably launching Jelly Splash to #1, a marketing postmortem
Eric Seufert, GDC 2014: Profitably launching Jelly Splash to #1, a marketing postmortem
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Profitably launching Jelly Splash to #1, a marketing postmortem

Eric Seufert, GDC 2014: Profitably launching Jelly Splash to #1, a marketing postmortem

  1. 1. Profitably Launching Jelly Splash to #1: A Marketing Postmortem Eric Benjamin Seufert Head of Marketing, Wooga
  2. 2. Who am I?
  3. 3. Who am I? Head of Marketing at Wooga
  4. 4. Who am I? Head of Marketing at Wooga Freemium Economics
  5. 5. Presentation Structure
  6. 6. Development @ Wooga
  7. 7. Prototype Development @ Wooga
  8. 8. Prototype Production Begins Development @ Wooga
  9. 9. Prototype Production Begins First Playable Development @ Wooga
  10. 10. Prototype Production Begins First Playable Soft Launch Development @ Wooga
  11. 11. Prototype Production Begins First Playable Soft Launch Launch Development @ Wooga
  12. 12. Prototype Production Begins First Playable Soft Launch Launch Hit Development @ Wooga
  13. 13. Development @ Wooga
  14. 14. Development @ Wooga ● Inverted pyramid product pipeline
  15. 15. Development @ Wooga ● Inverted pyramid product pipeline ● Small teams developing many prototypes
  16. 16. Development @ Wooga ● Inverted pyramid product pipeline ● Small teams developing many prototypes ● Stop projects early
  17. 17. Development @ Wooga ● Inverted pyramid product pipeline ● Small teams developing many prototypes ● Stop projects early ● 2 hits per year
  18. 18. What is Jelly Splash?
  19. 19. What is Jelly Splash? ● Match-3 style puzzle game
  20. 20. What is Jelly Splash? ● Match-3 style puzzle game ● Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013
  21. 21. What is Jelly Splash? ● Match-3 style puzzle game ● Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013 ● Launched globally Wednesday, August 21, 2013
  22. 22. What is Jelly Splash? ● Match-3 style puzzle game ● Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013 ● Launched globally Wednesday, August 21, 2013 ● Peaked at #1 most downloaded (iPhone) in US, FR, DE, BR, NL, IS, ES, NO & others
  23. 23. Presentation Structure
  24. 24. Marketing for Mobile Games
  25. 25. Marketing for Mobile Games “I don’t need to run mobile user acquisition. If I make a great game, it will grow on its own.”
  26. 26. Marketing for Mobile Games “I need mobile user acquisition because lots of great games are competing for attention from users.”
  27. 27. Marketing for Mobile Games Goals of Marketing Team:
  28. 28. Marketing for Mobile Games Goals of Marketing Team: 1. Scale
  29. 29. Marketing for Mobile Games Goals of Marketing Team: 1. Scale 2. Profit
  30. 30. Marketing for Mobile Games CPI = / CTR / IRCPM 1000
  31. 31. Marketing for Mobile Games CPI = Market-based / CTR / IRCPM 1000
  32. 32. Marketing for Mobile Games CPI = Market-based Game dependent CPM 1000 / CTR / IR
  33. 33. Marketing for Mobile Games CPITAM
  34. 34. Marketing for Mobile Games How to maximize TAM?
  35. 35. Marketing Starts Prototype Production Begins First Playable Soft Launch Launch Hit Development @ Wooga
  36. 36. Marketing Starts Prototype Production Begins First Playable Soft Launch Launch Hit Development @ Wooga
  37. 37. Marketing for Mobile Games “I don’t need to run mobile user acquisition. If I make a great game, it will grow on its own.”
  38. 38. Marketing for Mobile Games Who defines great?
  39. 39. Marketing for Mobile Games Who defines great?
  40. 40. Marketing for Mobile Games or Who defines great?
  41. 41. Marketing for Mobile Games Maximizing TAM:
  42. 42. Marketing for Mobile Games Maximizing TAM: (for a given game mechanic)
  43. 43. Marketing for Mobile Games Maximizing TAM: (for a given game mechanic) • Market size assessment
  44. 44. Marketing for Mobile Games Maximizing TAM: (for a given game mechanic) • Market size assessment • Demographic fit
  45. 45. Marketing for Mobile Games Maximizing TAM: (for a given game mechanic) • Market size assessment • Demographic fit • Targeting
  46. 46. Presentation Structure
  47. 47. Data-Driven Development Analytics
  48. 48. Data-Driven Development Analytics Experimentation
  49. 49. Data-Driven Development Analytics Experimentation Iteration
  50. 50. Analytics at Wooga BI Product GameTeam1 GameTeam2 GameTeam3 Analyst Analyst Analyst } }DataInfrastructure
  51. 51. Presentation Structure
  52. 52. Prototype Production Begins First Playable Soft Launch Launch Hit Development @ Wooga
  53. 53. Soft Launch?
  54. 54. Soft Launch? ● Player feedback
  55. 55. Soft Launch? ● Player feedback ● Market feedback
  56. 56. Soft Launch? ● Player feedback ● Market feedback ● Iteration Cycles
  57. 57. Soft Launch? ● Player feedback ● Market feedback ● Iteration Cycles ● Scalability
  58. 58. Length of Soft Launch
  59. 59. Length of Soft Launch ● Metrics targets
  60. 60. Length of Soft Launch ● Metrics targets ● Completeness of game
  61. 61. Clash of Clans 2 Months CA: June 14, 2012 (Th) US: August 2, 2012 (Th) *iPhone / Downloaded
  62. 62. Pet Rescue Saga 1 Month CA: May 16, 2013 (Th) US: June 12, 2013 (Wed) *iPhone / Downloaded
  63. 63. The Hobbit: KoME <1 Month CA: Oct 18, 2012 (Th) US: Nov 8, 2012 (Th) *iPhone / Downloaded
  64. 64. Boom Beach Ongoing (5+ mths) CA: Nov 8, 2013 (Fr) AU: Jan 17, 2014 (Fr) *iPhone / Downloaded
  65. 65. Soft Launch Focus
  66. 66. Soft Launch Focus ● Retention
  67. 67. Soft Launch Focus ● Retention ● Virality
  68. 68. Soft Launch Focus ● Retention ● Virality
  69. 69. What is Retention?
  70. 70. Retention is the most important metric
  71. 71. Retention is the most important metric ● Delight
  72. 72. Retention is the most important metric ● Delight ● Player Lifetime
  73. 73. The Retention Curve 50% Day 1: 37 day total lifetime
  74. 74. The Retention Curve 40% Day 1: 30 day total lifetime
  75. 75. Retention is the most important metric ● Delight ● Player Lifetime ● Lifetime Customer Value (LTV)
  76. 76. Calculating LTV “Top Down” • Curve fit monetization
  77. 77. Freemium Economics, Figure 5.13 Calculating LTV: “Top Down”
  78. 78. Calculating LTV “Top Down” • Curve fit monetization “Bottoms Up” • Retention curve, ARPDAU
  79. 79. Real Retention Rates Step 1: Plot small sample of real retention rates Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
  80. 80. Step 2: Curve fit a power function Power function Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
  81. 81. Step 3: Integrate the power function Area under the curve Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
  82. 82. Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
  83. 83. Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up” “Segments” are distinct user groups
  84. 84. “Two methods for calculating LTV in a spreadsheet”
  85. 85. LTV Timeline
  86. 86. LTV Timeline 180 Days
  87. 87. LTV Timeline 180 Days • No discounting
  88. 88. LTV Timeline 180 Days • No discounting • Practical for casual game
  89. 89. LTV Timeline 180 Days • No discounting • Practical for casual game 365 Days
  90. 90. LTV Timeline 180 Days • No discounting • Practical for casual game 365 Days • Not a “current asset”
  91. 91. LTV Timeline 180 Days • No discounting • Practical for casual game 365 Days • Not a “current asset” • Better for longer-timeline game
  92. 92. Soft Launch Focus ● Retention ● Virality
  93. 93. Why is virality important?
  94. 94. Why is virality important?
  95. 95. Why is virality important? ● Virality compounds user base growth
  96. 96. Defining Virality
  97. 97. Defining Virality ● Nebulous concept
  98. 98. Defining Virality ● Nebulous concept ● Quantifying requires assumptions
  99. 99. Calculating Virality
  100. 100. Calculating Virality ● Virality expressed as “k-factor”
  101. 101. Calculating Virality ● Virality expressed as “k-factor” ● K-factor: additional users per new user
  102. 102. Calculating Virality K-factor of 1 = truly viral Each new user brings additional new user Freemium Economics, Figure 4.13
  103. 103. Calculating Virality “Bottoms Up” ● Number of invites * invite conversion Freemium Economics, Figure 7.3
  104. 104. Calculating Virality “Top Down” ● Period-to-period, non-paid growth
  105. 105. Calculating Virality: Top Down Day X DNU
  106. 106. Calculating Virality: Top Down Day X DNU “Organic”
  107. 107. Calculating Virality: Top Down Day X DNU “Organic” Paid
  108. 108. Calculating Virality: Top Down Day X “Organic” Paid Day X + 1
  109. 109. Calculating Virality: Top Down Day X “Organic” Paid Day X + 1 “Organic”
  110. 110. Calculating Virality: Top Down Day X “Organic” Paid Day X + 1 “Organic” Paid
  111. 111. Calculating Virality: Top Down Day X “Organic” Paid Day X + 1 “Organic” Paid Viral
  112. 112. Calculating Virality: Top Down Day X “Organic” Paid Day X + 1 “Organic” Paid Viral
  113. 113. Calculating Virality: Top Down K-factor = Viral Users (Day X + 1) Paid + Organic (Day X)
  114. 114. Why is Virality important?
  115. 115. Why is Virality important? Freemium Economics, Figure 8.4
  116. 116. Soft Launch Targets ● LTV
  117. 117. ● LTV ● CPI Soft Launch Targets
  118. 118. Soft Launch Targets ● LTV ● CPI
  119. 119. Soft Launch Targets ● LTV ● CPI
  120. 120. Presentation Structure
  121. 121. Soft Launch
  122. 122. Soft Launch June 14, 2013
  123. 123. Soft Launch June 14, 2013 2 Networks
  124. 124. Soft Launch June 14, 2013 2 Networks • Chartboost
  125. 125. Soft Launch June 14, 2013 2 Networks • Chartboost • Facebook
  126. 126. Soft Launch June 14, 2013 2 Networks • Chartboost • Facebook Roughly 2k DNU
  127. 127. Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch
  128. 128. Entered CA App Store Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch
  129. 129. Entered CA App Store 2K DNU Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch
  130. 130. Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch Entered CA App Store 2K DNU “Ramp up” for Global Launch
  131. 131. Soft Launch ● Strong Virality
  132. 132. Soft Launch ● Strong Virality Average K-factor 92%
  133. 133. Soft Launch ● Strong Virality ● Strong Retention Average K-factor 92%
  134. 134. Soft Launch ● Strong Virality ● Strong Retention Average K-factor 92% Minimum 50% Day 1 Retention
  135. 135. Soft Launch ● Strong Virality ● Strong Retention Average K-factor 92% Minimum 50% Day 1 Retention 
  136. 136. Soft Launch CPI (iPhone): $2
  137. 137. Soft Launch CPI (iPhone): $2 CPI (iPhone): ?
  138. 138. Soft Launch Average K-factor 92% CPI $2.00 eCPI $1.04
  139. 139. Soft Launch Average K-factor 92% CPI $2.00 eCPI $1.04 If LTV > $1.04,
  140. 140. Soft Launch Average K-factor 92% CPI $2.00 eCPI $1.04 If LTV > $1.04, profit.
  141. 141. Presentation Structure
  142. 142. Prototype Production Begins First Playable Soft Launch Launch Hit Development @ Wooga
  143. 143. Global Launch Strategy
  144. 144. Global Launch Strategy • Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04
  145. 145. Global Launch Strategy • Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04 • Large Total Addressable Market
  146. 146. Global Launch Strategy • Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04 • Large Total Addressable Market or
  147. 147. Ladder Launch
  148. 148. Ladder Launch • Purely profitable campaigns
  149. 149. Ladder Launch • Purely profitable campaigns • Slowly grow user base
  150. 150. Ladder Launch • Purely profitable campaigns • Slowly grow user base • Unit economics
  151. 151. Trampoline Launch
  152. 152. Trampoline Launch • LTV < CPI
  153. 153. Trampoline Launch • LTV < CPI • Aim for chart position
  154. 154. Trampoline Launch • LTV < CPI • Aim for chart position • Organic installs offset loss
  155. 155. Trampoline Launch • LTV < CPI • Aim for chart position • Organic installs offset loss • User base economics
  156. 156. Pros Cons Pros Cons No launch risk
  157. 157. Pros Cons Pros Cons No launch risk Less $ upfront
  158. 158. Pros Cons Pros Cons No launch risk Less $ upfront Easy to update
  159. 159. Pros Cons Pros Cons No launch risk Less $ upfront Easy to update $ on the table
  160. 160. Pros Cons Pros Cons No launch risk Less $ upfront Easy to update $ on the table Market dynamic
  161. 161. Pros Cons Pros Cons No launch risk Less $ upfront Easy to update $ on the table Market dynamic Bigger network effects
  162. 162. Pros Cons Pros Cons No launch risk Less $ upfront Easy to update $ on the table Market dynamic Bigger network effects Time Value of Money
  163. 163. Pros Cons Pros Cons No launch risk Less $ upfront Easy to update $ on the table Market dynamic Bigger network effects Time Value of Money Huge upfront commitment
  164. 164. Pros Cons Pros Cons No launch risk Less $ upfront Easy to update $ on the table Market dynamic Bigger network effects Time Value of Money Huge upfront commitment VaR difficult to evaluate
  165. 165. Effects of Compounding
  166. 166. Effects of Compounding 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Upfront Per-period
  167. 167. Effects of Compounding 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Upfront Per-period K-factor: 20%
  168. 168. Effects of Compounding 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Upfront Per-period K-factor: 20% 10 Periods
  169. 169. Effects of Compounding 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Upfront Per-period K-factor: 20% 10 Periods
  170. 170. “So, Mcfly: Are you In or Out?”
  171. 171. Cost of Trampoline Launch?
  172. 172. Cost of Trampoline Launch? • Goal of #1 chart position (iPhone / Downloaded / US)
  173. 173. Cost of Trampoline Launch? • Goal of #1 chart position (iPhone / Downloaded / US) • Assume US CPI of $2
  174. 174. Cost of Trampoline Launch? • Goal of #1 chart position (iPhone / Downloaded / US) • Assume US CPI of $2 • Top Chart Position ~= 20k installs / day
  175. 175. Global Launch Strategy Top 10 Installs2 66,458 Cost (CPI = $2) $132,916.00 August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)1 (1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily) (2) Less organic uplift of 20k
  176. 176. Global Launch Strategy Top 10 Top 3 Installs2 66,458 113,247 Cost (CPI = $2) $132,916.00 $226,494.86 August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)1 (1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily) (2) Less organic uplift of 20k
  177. 177. Global Launch Strategy August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)1 Top 10 Top 3 #1 Installs2 66,458 113,247 140,875 Cost (CPI = $2) $132,916.00 $226,494.86 $281,750.57 (1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily) (2) Less organic uplift of 20k
  178. 178. Global Launch Strategy K-factor ~= 1.0
  179. 179. August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)* Adjusted Top 10 Installs2 33,229 Cost (CPI = $2) $66,458.00 Global Launch Strategy (1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily) (2) Less organic uplift of 20k
  180. 180. August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)* Adjusted Top 10 Top 3 Installs2 33,229 56,624 Cost (CPI = $2) $66,458.00 $113,247.43 Global Launch Strategy (1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily) (2) Less organic uplift of 20k
  181. 181. August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)* Adjusted Top 10 Top 3 #1 Installs2 33,229 56,624 70,438 Cost (CPI = $2) $66,458.00 $113,247.43 $140,875.14 Global Launch Strategy (1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily) (2) Less organic uplift of 20k
  182. 182. Distimo’s estimations looked like this: NumberofInstalls App Store Rank Global Launch Strategy Top 10 Top 3 #1
  183. 183. Distimo’s estimations looked like this: NumberofInstalls App Store Rank Global Launch Strategy 30k Top 10 Top 3 #1
  184. 184. Distimo’s estimations looked like this: NumberofInstalls App Store Rank Global Launch Strategy 30k 56k Top 10 Top 3 #1
  185. 185. Distimo’s estimations looked like this: NumberofInstalls App Store Rank Global Launch Strategy 30k 56k 70k Top 10 Top 3 #1
  186. 186. Distimo’s estimations looked like this: NumberofInstalls App Store Rank Global Launch Strategy 30k 56k 70k Top 10 Top 3 #1
  187. 187. Global Launch Strategy Nothing in Freemium Looks Like That.
  188. 188. Global Launch Strategy NumberofInstalls App Store Rank This… 30k
  189. 189. Global Launch Strategy NumberofInstalls App Store Rank …should be this: 30k
  190. 190. Global Launch Strategy • Increasing exponential function
  191. 191. Global Launch Strategy • Increasing exponential function • Rate of price increases is increasing
  192. 192. Global Launch Strategy • Increasing exponential function • Rate of price increases is increasing • #10 -> #3 -> #1 separated by orders of magnitude
  193. 193. Global Launch Strategy • Target Markets:
  194. 194. Global Launch Strategy • Target Markets:
  195. 195. Global Launch Strategy • Target Markets:
  196. 196. Global Launch Strategy • Target Markets:
  197. 197. Global Launch Strategy • Target Markets:
  198. 198. Global Launch Strategy Adjusted estimates: Country US Cost1 $200,000 (1) iPhone (2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift (3) CPI adjusted by k-factor
  199. 199. Global Launch Strategy Adjusted estimates: Country US Cost1 $200,000 Adj. Cost3 $104,166 (1) iPhone (2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift (3) CPI adjusted by k-factor
  200. 200. Global Launch Strategy Adjusted estimates: Country US DE Cost1 $200,000 $37,600 Adj. Cost3 $104,166 $19,583 (1) iPhone (2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift (3) CPI adjusted by k-factor
  201. 201. Global Launch Strategy Adjusted estimates: Country US DE FR Cost1 $200,000 $37,600 $26,000 Adj. Cost3 $104,166 $19,583 $13,541 (1) iPhone (2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift (3) CPI adjusted by k-factor
  202. 202. Global Launch Strategy Adjusted estimates: Country US DE FR NL Cost1 $200,000 $37,600 $26,000 $20,800 Adj. Cost3 $104,166 $19,583 $13,541 $10,833 (1) iPhone (2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift (3) CPI adjusted by k-factor
  203. 203. Global Launch Strategy Adjusted estimates: Country US DE FR NL BR Cost1 $200,000 $37,600 $26,000 $20,800 $15,400 Adj. Cost3 $104,166 $19,583 $13,541 $10,833 $8,020 (1) iPhone (2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift (3) CPI adjusted by k-factor
  204. 204. Global Launch Strategy
  205. 205. Global Launch Strategy #1 in 5 Markets1: (1) Assumes no featuring
  206. 206. Global Launch Strategy #1 in 5 Markets1: • 92% k-factor (1) Assumes no featuring
  207. 207. Global Launch Strategy #1 in 5 Markets1: • 92% k-factor • $2 CPI (1) Assumes no featuring
  208. 208. Global Launch Strategy #1 in 5 Markets1: • 92% k-factor • $2 CPI $150k for launch week (1) Assumes no featuring
  209. 209. Global Launch Strategy #1 in 5 Markets1: • 92% k-factor • $2 CPI $150k for launch week Set budget to $250k (1) Assumes no featuring
  210. 210. Presentation Structure
  211. 211. Global Launch Logistics
  212. 212. Global Launch Logistics Staggered Launch
  213. 213. Global Launch Logistics Staggered Launch • 1 country per day
  214. 214. Global Launch Logistics Staggered Launch • 1 country per day Release game globally on Thursday
  215. 215. Global Launch Logistics Staggered Launch • 1 country per day Release game globally on Thursday 23 Networks
  216. 216. Global Launch Logistics Staggered Launch • 1 country per day Release game globally on Thursday 23 Networks “Burst” campaigns in each country
  217. 217. Global Launch Logistics “Over-budgeted” by 25%
  218. 218. Global Launch Logistics “Over-budgeted” by 25% Social media outreach (Wooga has >20MM Facebook fans)
  219. 219. Global Launch Logistics “Over-budgeted” by 25% Social media outreach (Wooga has >20MM Facebook fans) Cross-promotion from Wooga titles
  220. 220. Global Burst Schedule Fri, 23/8
  221. 221. Global Burst Schedule Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8
  222. 222. Global Burst Schedule Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8 Sun, 25/8
  223. 223. Global Burst Schedule Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8 Sun, 25/8 Wed, 28/8
  224. 224. Burst results
  225. 225. Burst results ● #1 in all target countries1 (1) iPhone / downloaded
  226. 226. Burst results ● #1 in all target countries1 ● 1MM downloads in 5 days (1) iPhone / downloaded
  227. 227. Burst results ● #1 in all target countries1 ● 1MM downloads in 5 days ● Top 10 in other key countries (1) iPhone / downloaded
  228. 228. Post Launch • Strong retention meant revenue didn’t drop after burst
  229. 229. Post Launch DNU Daily USD
  230. 230. Presentation Structure
  231. 231. What We Learned • “Bursting” can be profitable
  232. 232. What We Learned • “Bursting” can be profitable • Organic uplift from chart position:
  233. 233. What We Learned • “Bursting” can be profitable • Organic uplift from chart position: • Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone)
  234. 234. What We Learned • “Bursting” can be profitable • Organic uplift from chart position: • Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone) • Top 3 += 50k DNU (US, iPhone)
  235. 235. What We Learned • “Bursting” can be profitable • Organic uplift from chart position: • Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone) • Top 3 += 50k DNU (US, iPhone) • Most networks overpromised burst-day volume by 20%
  236. 236. What We Learned • Virality decay
  237. 237. What We Learned • Virality decay • K-factor decreased to 84% / eCPI increased by 28% • Increased networks kept CPIs flat
  238. 238. 4 Key Take-Aways
  239. 239. 4 Key Take-Aways • Long Soft Launch
  240. 240. 4 Key Take-Aways • Long Soft Launch • LTV Estimation
  241. 241. 4 Key Take-Aways • Long Soft Launch • LTV Estimation • Market Analysis
  242. 242. 4 Key Take-Aways • Long Soft Launch • LTV Estimation • Market Analysis • Virality is King Maker
  243. 243. Wooga http://wooga.com
  244. 244. Questions?
  245. 245. Book Giveaway!
  246. 246. Book Giveaway!
  247. 247. Book Giveaway! In The Legend of Zelda: A link to the Past, what form does Ganon take after being defeated the 2nd time?
  248. 248. Book Giveaway! In The Legend of Zelda: A link to the Past, what form does Ganon take after being defeated the 2nd time? • Tiger
  249. 249. Book Giveaway! In The Legend of Zelda: A link to the Past, what form does Ganon take after being defeated the 2nd time? • Tiger • Rat
  250. 250. Book Giveaway! In The Legend of Zelda: A link to the Past, what form does Ganon take after being defeated the 2nd time? • Tiger • Rat • Vulture
  251. 251. Book Giveaway! In The Legend of Zelda: A link to the Past, what form does Ganon take after being defeated the 2nd time? • Tiger • Rat • Vulture • Bat

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