1. Profitably Launching Jelly Splash
to #1: A Marketing Postmortem
Eric Benjamin Seufert
Head of Marketing, Wooga

2. Who am I?

3. Who am I?
Head of Marketing at Wooga

4. Who am I?
Head of Marketing at Wooga
Freemium Economics

5. Presentation Structure

6. Development @ Wooga

7. Prototype
Development @ Wooga

8. Prototype
Production Begins
Development @ Wooga

9. Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Development @ Wooga

10. Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Development @ Wooga

11. Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Development @ Wooga

12. Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga

13. Development @ Wooga

14. Development @ Wooga
● Inverted pyramid product pipeline

15. Development @ Wooga
● Inverted pyramid product pipeline
● Small teams developing many prototypes

16. Development @ Wooga
● Inverted pyramid product pipeline
● Small teams developing many prototypes
● Stop projects early

17. Development @ Wooga
● Inverted pyramid product pipeline
● Small teams developing many prototypes
● Stop projects early
● 2 hits per year

18. What is Jelly Splash?

19. What is Jelly Splash?
● Match-3 style puzzle game

20. What is Jelly Splash?
● Match-3 style puzzle game
● Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013

21. What is Jelly Splash?
● Match-3 style puzzle game
● Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013
● Launched globally Wednesday, August 21,
2013

22. What is Jelly Splash?
● Match-3 style puzzle game
● Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013
● Launched globally Wednesday, August 21,
2013
● Peaked at #1 most downloaded (iPhone)
in US, FR, DE, BR, NL, IS, ES, NO & others

23. Presentation Structure

24. Marketing for Mobile Games

25. Marketing for Mobile Games
“I don’t need to run mobile
user acquisition. If I make a
great game, it will grow on
its own.”

33. Marketing for Mobile Games
“I need mobile user
acquisition because lots of
great games are competing
for attention from users.”

34. Marketing for Mobile Games
Goals of Marketing Team:

35. Marketing for Mobile Games
Goals of Marketing Team:
1. Scale

36. Marketing for Mobile Games
Goals of Marketing Team:
1. Scale
2. Profit

37. Marketing for Mobile Games
CPI = / CTR / IRCPM
1000

38. Marketing for Mobile Games
CPI =
Market-based
/ CTR / IRCPM
1000

39. Marketing for Mobile Games
CPI =
Market-based Game dependent
CPM
1000
/ CTR / IR

40. Marketing for Mobile Games
CPITAM

41. Marketing for Mobile Games
How to maximize TAM?

42. Marketing Starts
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga

43. Marketing Starts
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga

44. Marketing for Mobile Games
“I don’t need to run mobile
user acquisition. If I make a
great game, it will grow on
its own.”

45. Marketing for Mobile Games
Who defines great?

46. Marketing for Mobile Games
Who defines great?

47. Marketing for Mobile Games
or
Who defines great?

48. Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:

49. Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:
(for a given game mechanic)

50. Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:
(for a given game mechanic)
• Market size assessment

51. Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:
(for a given game mechanic)
• Market size assessment
• Demographic fit

52. Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:
(for a given game mechanic)
• Market size assessment
• Demographic fit
• Targeting

53. Presentation Structure

54. Data-Driven Development
Analytics

55. Data-Driven Development
Analytics Experimentation

56. Data-Driven Development
Analytics Experimentation Iteration

57. Analytics at Wooga
BI
Product
GameTeam1
GameTeam2
GameTeam3
Analyst Analyst Analyst
}
}DataInfrastructure

58. Presentation Structure

59. Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga

60. Soft Launch?

61. Soft Launch?
● Player feedback

62. Soft Launch?
● Player feedback
● Market feedback

63. Soft Launch?
● Player feedback
● Market feedback
● Iteration Cycles

64. Soft Launch?
● Player feedback
● Market feedback
● Iteration Cycles
● Scalability

65. Length of Soft Launch

66. Length of Soft Launch
● Metrics targets

67. Length of Soft Launch
● Metrics targets
● Completeness of game

68. Clash of Clans
2 Months
CA: June 14, 2012 (Th)
US: August 2, 2012 (Th)
*iPhone / Downloaded

69. Pet Rescue Saga
1 Month
CA: May 16, 2013 (Th)
US: June 12, 2013 (Wed)
*iPhone / Downloaded

70. The Hobbit: KoME
<1 Month
CA: Oct 18, 2012 (Th)
US: Nov 8, 2012 (Th)
*iPhone / Downloaded

71. Boom Beach
Ongoing (5+ mths)
CA: Nov 8, 2013 (Fr)
AU: Jan 17, 2014 (Fr)
*iPhone / Downloaded

72. Soft Launch Focus

73. Soft Launch Focus
● Retention

74. Soft Launch Focus
● Retention
● Virality

75. Soft Launch Focus
● Retention
● Virality

76. What is Retention?

77. Retention is the most important
metric

78. Retention is the most important
metric
● Delight

79. Retention is the most important
metric
● Delight
● Player Lifetime

80. The Retention Curve
50% Day 1: 37 day total lifetime

81. The Retention Curve
40% Day 1: 30 day total lifetime

82. Retention is the most important
metric
● Delight
● Player Lifetime
● Lifetime Customer Value (LTV)

83. Calculating LTV
“Top Down”
• Curve fit monetization

84. Freemium Economics, Figure 5.13
Calculating LTV: “Top Down”

85. Calculating LTV
“Top Down”
• Curve fit monetization
“Bottoms Up”
• Retention curve, ARPDAU

86. Real Retention Rates
Step 1: Plot small sample of real retention rates
Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”

87. Step 2: Curve fit a power function
Power function
Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”

88. Step 3: Integrate the power function
Area under the curve
Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”

89. Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”

90. Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
“Segments” are distinct user groups

91. “Two methods for calculating LTV in a
spreadsheet”

92. LTV Timeline

93. LTV Timeline
180 Days

94. LTV Timeline
180 Days
• No discounting

95. LTV Timeline
180 Days
• No discounting
• Practical for casual game

96. LTV Timeline
180 Days
• No discounting
• Practical for casual game
365 Days

97. LTV Timeline
180 Days
• No discounting
• Practical for casual game
365 Days
• Not a “current asset”

98. LTV Timeline
180 Days
• No discounting
• Practical for casual game
365 Days
• Not a “current asset”
• Better for longer-timeline game

99. Soft Launch Focus
● Retention
● Virality

100. Why is virality important?

101. Why is virality important?

102. Why is virality important?
● Virality compounds user base growth

103. Defining Virality

104. Defining Virality
● Nebulous concept

105. Defining Virality
● Nebulous concept
● Quantifying requires assumptions

106. Calculating Virality

107. Calculating Virality
● Virality expressed as “k-factor”

108. Calculating Virality
● Virality expressed as “k-factor”
● K-factor: additional users per new user

109. Calculating Virality
K-factor of 1 = truly
viral
Each new user
brings additional
new user
Freemium Economics, Figure 4.13

110. Calculating Virality
“Bottoms Up”
● Number of invites * invite conversion
Freemium Economics, Figure 7.3

111. Calculating Virality
“Top Down”
● Period-to-period, non-paid growth

112. Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
DNU

113. Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
DNU
“Organic”

114. Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
DNU
“Organic”
Paid

115. Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X +
1

116. Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X +
1
“Organic”

117. Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X +
1
“Organic”
Paid

118. Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X +
1
“Organic”
Paid
Viral

119. Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X +
1
“Organic”
Paid
Viral

120. Calculating Virality: Top Down
K-factor =
Viral Users (Day X + 1)
Paid + Organic (Day X)

121. Why is Virality important?

122. Why is Virality important?
Freemium Economics, Figure 8.4

123. Soft Launch Targets
● LTV

124. ● LTV
● CPI
Soft Launch Targets

125. Soft Launch Targets
● LTV
● CPI

126. Soft Launch Targets
● LTV
● CPI

127. Presentation Structure

128. Soft Launch

129. Soft Launch
June 14, 2013

130. Soft Launch
June 14, 2013
2 Networks

131. Soft Launch
June 14, 2013
2 Networks
• Chartboost

132. Soft Launch
June 14, 2013
2 Networks
• Chartboost
• Facebook

133. Soft Launch
June 14, 2013
2 Networks
• Chartboost
• Facebook
Roughly 2k DNU

134. Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch

135. Entered CA App Store
Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch

136. Entered CA App Store
2K DNU
Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch

137. Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch
Entered CA App Store
2K DNU
“Ramp up” for
Global Launch

138. Soft Launch
● Strong Virality

139. Soft Launch
● Strong Virality Average K-factor 92%

140. Soft Launch
● Strong Virality
● Strong Retention
Average K-factor 92%

141. Soft Launch
● Strong Virality
● Strong Retention
Average K-factor 92%
Minimum 50% Day 1
Retention

142. Soft Launch
● Strong Virality
● Strong Retention
Average K-factor 92%
Minimum 50% Day 1
Retention 

143. Soft Launch
CPI (iPhone): $2

144. Soft Launch
CPI (iPhone): $2
CPI (iPhone): ?

145. Soft Launch
Average K-factor 92%
CPI $2.00
eCPI $1.04

146. Soft Launch
Average K-factor 92%
CPI $2.00
eCPI $1.04
If LTV > $1.04,

147. Soft Launch
Average K-factor 92%
CPI $2.00
eCPI $1.04
If LTV > $1.04, profit.

148. Presentation Structure

149. Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga

150. Global Launch Strategy

151. Global Launch Strategy
• Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04

152. Global Launch Strategy
• Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04
• Large Total Addressable Market

153. Global Launch Strategy
• Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04
• Large Total Addressable Market
or

154. Ladder Launch

155. Ladder Launch
• Purely profitable campaigns

156. Ladder Launch
• Purely profitable campaigns
• Slowly grow user base

157. Ladder Launch
• Purely profitable campaigns
• Slowly grow user base
• Unit economics

158. Trampoline Launch

159. Trampoline Launch
• LTV < CPI

160. Trampoline Launch
• LTV < CPI
• Aim for chart position

161. Trampoline Launch
• LTV < CPI
• Aim for chart position
• Organic installs offset loss

162. Trampoline Launch
• LTV < CPI
• Aim for chart position
• Organic installs offset loss
• User base economics

163. Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk

164. Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront

165. Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update

166. Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table

167. Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic

168. Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic
Bigger network
effects

169. Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic
Bigger network
effects
Time Value of
Money

170. Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic
Bigger network
effects
Time Value of
Money
Huge upfront
commitment

171. Pros Cons Pros Cons
No launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic
Bigger network
effects
Time Value of
Money
Huge upfront
commitment
VaR difficult to
evaluate

172. Effects of Compounding

173. Effects of Compounding
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Upfront
Per-period

174. Effects of Compounding
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Upfront
Per-period
K-factor: 20%

175. Effects of Compounding
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Upfront
Per-period
K-factor: 20%
10 Periods

176. Effects of Compounding
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Upfront
Per-period
K-factor: 20%
10 Periods

177. “So, Mcfly: Are you In or Out?”

178. Cost of Trampoline Launch?

179. Cost of Trampoline Launch?
• Goal of #1 chart position (iPhone / Downloaded /
US)

180. Cost of Trampoline Launch?
• Goal of #1 chart position (iPhone / Downloaded /
US)
• Assume US CPI of $2

181. Cost of Trampoline Launch?
• Goal of #1 chart position (iPhone / Downloaded /
US)
• Assume US CPI of $2
• Top Chart Position ~= 20k installs / day

182. Global Launch Strategy
Top 10
Installs2
66,458
Cost
(CPI = $2)
$132,916.00
August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)1
(1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily)
(2) Less organic uplift of 20k

183. Global Launch Strategy
Top 10 Top 3
Installs2
66,458 113,247
Cost
(CPI = $2)
$132,916.00 $226,494.86
August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)1
(1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily)
(2) Less organic uplift of 20k

184. Global Launch Strategy
August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)1
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Installs2
66,458 113,247 140,875
Cost
(CPI = $2)
$132,916.00 $226,494.86 $281,750.57
(1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily)
(2) Less organic uplift of 20k

185. Global Launch Strategy
K-factor ~= 1.0

186. August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)*
Adjusted
Top 10
Installs2
33,229
Cost
(CPI = $2)
$66,458.00
Global Launch Strategy
(1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily)
(2) Less organic uplift of 20k

187. August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)*
Adjusted
Top 10 Top 3
Installs2
33,229 56,624
Cost
(CPI = $2)
$66,458.00 $113,247.43
Global Launch Strategy
(1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily)
(2) Less organic uplift of 20k

188. August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)*
Adjusted
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Installs2
33,229 56,624 70,438
Cost
(CPI = $2)
$66,458.00 $113,247.43 $140,875.14
Global Launch Strategy
(1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily)
(2) Less organic uplift of 20k

189. Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
NumberofInstalls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
Top 10 Top 3 #1

190. Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
NumberofInstalls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
30k
Top 10 Top 3 #1

191. Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
NumberofInstalls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
30k
56k
Top 10 Top 3 #1

192. Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
NumberofInstalls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
30k
56k
70k
Top 10 Top 3 #1

193. Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
NumberofInstalls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
30k
56k
70k
Top 10 Top 3 #1

194. Global Launch Strategy
Nothing in Freemium
Looks Like That.

195. Global Launch Strategy
NumberofInstalls
App Store Rank
This…
30k

196. Global Launch Strategy
NumberofInstalls
App Store Rank
…should be this:
30k

197. Global Launch Strategy
• Increasing exponential function

198. Global Launch Strategy
• Increasing exponential function
• Rate of price increases is increasing

199. Global Launch Strategy
• Increasing exponential function
• Rate of price increases is increasing
• #10 -> #3 -> #1 separated by orders of
magnitude

200. Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:

201. Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:

202. Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:

203. Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:

204. Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:

205. Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US
Cost1
$200,000
(1) iPhone
(2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift
(3) CPI adjusted by k-factor

206. Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US
Cost1
$200,000
Adj. Cost3
$104,166
(1) iPhone
(2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift
(3) CPI adjusted by k-factor

207. Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US DE
Cost1
$200,000 $37,600
Adj. Cost3
$104,166 $19,583
(1) iPhone
(2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift
(3) CPI adjusted by k-factor

208. Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US DE FR
Cost1
$200,000 $37,600 $26,000
Adj. Cost3
$104,166 $19,583 $13,541
(1) iPhone
(2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift
(3) CPI adjusted by k-factor

209. Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US DE FR NL
Cost1
$200,000 $37,600 $26,000 $20,800
Adj. Cost3
$104,166 $19,583 $13,541 $10,833
(1) iPhone
(2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift
(3) CPI adjusted by k-factor

210. Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US DE FR NL BR
Cost1
$200,000 $37,600 $26,000 $20,800 $15,400
Adj. Cost3
$104,166 $19,583 $13,541 $10,833 $8,020
(1) iPhone
(2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift
(3) CPI adjusted by k-factor

211. Global Launch Strategy

212. Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:
(1) Assumes no featuring

213. Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:
• 92% k-factor
(1) Assumes no featuring

214. Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:
• 92% k-factor
• $2 CPI
(1) Assumes no featuring

215. Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:
• 92% k-factor
• $2 CPI
$150k for launch week
(1) Assumes no featuring

216. Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:
• 92% k-factor
• $2 CPI
$150k for launch week
Set budget to $250k
(1) Assumes no featuring

217. Presentation Structure

218. Global Launch Logistics

219. Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch

220. Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch
• 1 country per day

221. Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch
• 1 country per day
Release game globally on Thursday

222. Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch
• 1 country per day
Release game globally on Thursday
23 Networks

223. Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch
• 1 country per day
Release game globally on Thursday
23 Networks
“Burst” campaigns in each country

224. Global Launch Logistics
“Over-budgeted” by 25%

225. Global Launch Logistics
“Over-budgeted” by 25%
Social media outreach (Wooga has >20MM Facebook
fans)

226. Global Launch Logistics
“Over-budgeted” by 25%
Social media outreach (Wooga has >20MM Facebook
fans)
Cross-promotion from Wooga titles

227. Global Burst Schedule
Fri, 23/8

228. Global Burst Schedule
Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8

229. Global Burst Schedule
Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8 Sun, 25/8

230. Global Burst Schedule
Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8 Sun, 25/8 Wed, 28/8

231. Burst results

232. Burst results
● #1 in all target countries1
(1) iPhone / downloaded

233. Burst results
● #1 in all target countries1
● 1MM downloads in 5 days
(1) iPhone / downloaded

234. Burst results
● #1 in all target countries1
● 1MM downloads in 5 days
● Top 10 in other key countries
(1) iPhone / downloaded

235. Post Launch
• Strong retention meant revenue didn’t drop
after burst

236. Post Launch
DNU Daily USD

237. Presentation Structure

238. What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable

239. What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable
• Organic uplift from chart position:

240. What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable
• Organic uplift from chart position:
• Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone)

241. What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable
• Organic uplift from chart position:
• Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone)
• Top 3 += 50k DNU (US, iPhone)

242. What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable
• Organic uplift from chart position:
• Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone)
• Top 3 += 50k DNU (US, iPhone)
• Most networks overpromised burst-day volume by
20%

243. What We Learned
• Virality decay

244. What We Learned
• Virality decay
• K-factor decreased to 84% / eCPI increased by
28%
• Increased networks kept CPIs flat

245. 4 Key Take-Aways

246. 4 Key Take-Aways
• Long Soft Launch

247. 4 Key Take-Aways
• Long Soft Launch
• LTV Estimation

248. 4 Key Take-Aways
• Long Soft Launch
• LTV Estimation
• Market Analysis

249. 4 Key Take-Aways
• Long Soft Launch
• LTV Estimation
• Market Analysis
• Virality is King Maker

250. Wooga
http://wooga.com

251. Questions?

252. Book Giveaway!

253. Book Giveaway!

254. Book Giveaway!
In The Legend of
Zelda: A link to the
Past, what form does
Ganon take after being
defeated the 2nd time?

255. Book Giveaway!
In The Legend of
Zelda: A link to the
Past, what form does
Ganon take after being
defeated the 2nd time?
• Tiger

256. Book Giveaway!
In The Legend of
Zelda: A link to the
Past, what form does
Ganon take after being
defeated the 2nd time?
• Tiger
• Rat

257. Book Giveaway!
In The Legend of
Zelda: A link to the
Past, what form does
Ganon take after being
defeated the 2nd time?
• Tiger
• Rat
• Vulture

258. Book Giveaway!
In The Legend of
Zelda: A link to the
Past, what form does
Ganon take after being
defeated the 2nd time?
• Tiger
• Rat
• Vulture
• Bat