Stock market special report by epic research 20 march 2014


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Stock market special report by epic research 20 march 2014

  1. 1. DAILY REPORT 20th MARCH 2014 YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300 Global markets at a glance Japanese stocks retreated from one-week highs on Thurs- day after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen raised the prospect of interest rate hikes starting earlier than previ- ously thought, sparking a selloff in equity markets and lift- ing the U.S. dollar. The weaker yen helped to contain broader market losses as a softer Japanese currency is generally seen as a positive for exporters' income. The Nik- kei share average fell 0.4 percent to 14,407.74 in choppy mid-morning trade, after rising to as high as 14,548.76 ear- lier. Record foreign stock sales last week also weighed on the market, traders said. On Wednesday, Yellen said the Fed might end its bond-buying program this fall, and could start to raise interest rates around six months later, earlier than anticipated. Wall Street Update US stocks fell on Wednesday after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen raised the possibility of an ear- lier-than-anticipated increase in interest rates. The central bank dropped the US unemployment rate as its definitive yardstick for gauging the economy's strength and made clear it would rely on a wide range of measures in deciding when to raise interest rates. The Dow Jones industrial av- erage .DJI fell 114.02 points or 0.70 percent, to end at 16,222.17. The S&P 500 .SPX slipped 11.48 points or 0.61 percent, to finish at 1,860.77. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 25.711 points or 0.59 percent, to close at 4,307.602. Previous day Roundup After a flip-flop trade, the market ended on a flat note as investors seemed to be cautious ahead of FOMC meet to- night. The meet, first presided over by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, is expected to continue to reduce the size of its monthly bond purchase programme by USD 10 bn. The Sensex ended up 0.25 points at 21832.86, and the Nifty was up 7.40 pts at 6524.05. About 1445 shares advanced, 1328 shares declined, and 151 shares were unchanged. Index stats The Market was very volatile in yesterday’s session. The sartorial indices performed as follow Consumer Durables [up 20.83pts], Capital Goods [up 55.34pts], PSU [down 64.63pts], FMCG [up 82.22pts], Realty [down 4.92pts], Power [down 1.80 pts], Auto [down 8.98pts], Healthcare [up 46.30pts], IT [down 198.97pts], Metals [up 189.60pts], TECK [down 79.80pts], Oil& Gas [down 45.81pts]. World Indices Index Value % Change D J l 16,222.17 -0.70 S&P 500 1,860.77 -0.61 NASDAQ 4,307.60 -0.59 EURO STO 3,076.36 -0.08 FTSE 100 6,573.13 -0.49 Nikkei 225 14,387.45 -0.52 Hong Kong 21,400.82 -0.78 Top Gainers Company CMP Change % Chg TATASTEEL 356.40 15.70 +4.61 HINDALCO 119.80 4.95 +4.31 AMBUJACEM 190.00 6.00 +3.26 PNB 651.10 15.15 +2.38 ASIANPAINT 513.00 11.40 +2.27 Top Losers Company CMP Change % Chg TCS 2,037.80 84.20 -3.97 ONGC 314.25 10.70 -3.29 M&M 980.10 29.50 -2.92 COALINDIA 262.95 7.75 -2.86 Stocks at 52 Week’s high Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg ACC 1283.30 25.20 +2.00 AMTEKAUTO 136.10 2.60 -1.87 BATAINDIA 1123.10 33.60 +3.08 CENTURYTEX 348.25 8.15 +2.40 Indian Indices Company CMP Change % Chg NIFTY 6,524.05 +7.40 +0.11 SENSEX 21,832.86 +0.25 +0.00 Stocks at 52 Week’s Low Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg HINDNATGLS 150.00 3.45 -2.25 - -
  2. 2. DAILY REPORT 20th MARCH 2014 YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300 STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. COAL INDIA COAL INDIA FUTURE is looking weak on charts, short build up has been seen, we may see more downside, if it sustains below 265 levels. We advise selling around 265-268 levels with strict stop loss 275 for the targets of 260-254 levels. 2. VOLTAS VOLTAS FUTURE is looking strong on charts, long build up has been seen, we may see more upside, if it sustains above 150 levels. We advise buying around 148-150 levels with strict stop loss 145 for the targets of 152-155 levels. EQUITY CASH & FUTURE STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] 1. TREE HOUSE TREE HOUSE is looking strong on charts. We advise buying around 230-235 levels with strict stop loss of 215 for the targets of 240-255 levels. MACRO NEWS Bank branches will remain open for full day on March 29, 30 and 31 to facilitate tax collection. Money supply rose 14.2% YoY in fortnight ended March 7, vs. 12.8% a year earlier, the RBI said yesterday. Money supply was Rs 94.55 tn ($1.55 tn) as on March 7, vs Rs 93.59 tn on February 21, RBI data showed. Reserve money rose an annualized 11.8% in the week to March 14, higher than 9.1% a year earlier, the RBI said. The relief that the central power regulator gave Tata Power and Adani Power, might turn out to be short-lived revelry. Five state governments are all set to challenge the move by the regulator to let these companies pass on their increased fuel costs to power purchasers. Amid Ukraine muddle, global prices for wheat surge 3% to $290-300 a tone. Oil marketing companies (OMCs) may have to pay much more on under-recoveries in FY14 BP, Niko Resources to formally join Reliance Industries (RIL) arbitration against government Anjani Portland open offer at Rs 61.75/share. SKS Microfinance Completes securitization of Rs 26.73 cr.
  3. 3. DAILY REPORT 20th MARCH 2014 YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300 FUTURE & OPTION MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION Symbol Op- tion Type Strike Price LTP Traded Volume (Contracts ) Open Interest NIFTY PE 6,500 33.35 4,08,933 61,71,450 NIFTY PE 6,400 12.95 2,31,323 62,69,700 NIFTY PE 6,600 78.8 1,90,559 26,01,500 BANKNIFTY PE 12,000 94.85 38,658 4,75,325 TCS PE 2,000 17 8,199 1,91,500 INFY PE 3,200 15.45 5,642 1,78,250 SBIN PE 1,700 29.7 4,020 2,65,125 AXISBANK PE 1,350 28.8 3,836 6,91,250 MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol Option Type Strike Price LTP Traded Volume (Contracts) Open Interest NIFTY CE 6,600 28.3 3,58,861 52,29,550 NIFTY CE 6,500 79.85 2,21,111 45,93,450 NIFTY CE 6,700 7.2 1,80,022 43,32,350 BANKNIFTY CE 12,500 94.05 37,225 3,27,000 TCS CE 2,100 16.15 9,398 3,36,875 INFY CE 3,400 11.6 7,090 3,06,000 SBIN CE 1,750 20.7 6,458 6,85,625 TATASTEEL CE 360 7.8 5,057 12,32,000 FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAYSELL No. of Contracts Amount in Crores No. of Contracts Amount in Crores No. of Contracts Amount in Crores NET AMOUNT INDEX FUTURES 51974 1693.87 49265 1605.66 518930 16888.83 88.21 INDEX OPTIONS 347399 11121.20 379333 12105.62 1673954 54384.11 -984.42 STOCK FUTURES 96993 3289.28 106903 3530.20 1080592 35201.29 -240.92 STOCK OPTIONS 69266 2267.12 71026 2331.95 102596 3291.50 -64.82 TOTAL -1201.95 INDICES S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 NIFTY 6488.55 6506.3 6523.75 6541.5 6558.95 NIFTYJUNIOR 12682.51 12734.68 12782.96 12835.13 12883.41 BANK NIFTY 12067.74 12127.14 12191.79 12251.19 12315.84 STOCKS IN NEWS Private equity investor Lighthouse to buy 25% in Bikaji Foods. Reliance MediaWorks completes 400th film. TCIL is close to bagging a nearly Rs 200-cr. contract for upgrading and maintaining Kuwait Telecommunica- tions Co's landline and broadband networks. Home ministry's clearances still pending for India heads of Telenor, Sistema, Vodafone NIFTY FUTURE Nifty Future closed in the red in the last trading session. We advise selling around 6580-6600 levels with strict stop loss of 6625 for the targets of 6550-6510.
  4. 4. DAILY REPORT 20th MARCH 2014 YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300 RECOMMENDATIONS SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER(MAY) ABOVE 46050 TGTS 46250/46550 SL 45700 SELL SILVER(MAY) BELOW 45700 TGTS 45500/45150 SL 46050 GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD(APR) ABOVE 30100 TGTS 30180/30280 SL 29980 SELL GOLD(APR) BELOW 29900 TGTS 29820/29720 SL 30000 COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold hit its weakest in three weeks on Thursday as the US dollar jumped on expectations the Federal Reserve could end its bond-buying programme this fall, hurting the metal's safe haven appeal as a hedge against inflation. Even as gold imports fell substantially, those of silver reached a record high in 2013. Sector estimates suggest India imported around 5,500 tonnes of silver, 180 per cent more than the previous year. The only earlier occasion when India imported more than 5,000 tonnes of silver in a year was in 2008. Traders needed to restock on silver; with gold costlier, there was a sudden rise in demand for silver jewellery, in India and in the export market. Also, prices were lower — these averaged $23.85 an ounce in 2013, from $31.17 in 2012, leading to higher demand. The price is down as its industrial demand is lagging, due to an overall slowing of economic activity; in 2014, so far, the average silver price has been $20.53 an oz. The price of copper fell 12% this year due to macroeco- nomic worries on Chinese credit tightening, Russia-Ukraine tensions, sluggish Japanese and US economic data. These have led to an overall slide in industrial commodities. The metal fell sharply 7.7% to hit $6,490 a tonne on the LME on March 14. It marginally recovered on Monday to settle at $6,550 a tonne. This is the lowest point since June 2010. Its demand is being questioned further, as China, the world's largest consumer, sees exports and inflation contracting faster than expected. The Reserve Bank has allowed five domestic private banks to import gold. This could be a significant step towards eas- ing of tough curbs on the metal imposed last year to cut the country's trade deficit. The central bank has allowed im- ports by HDFC Bank , Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, In- dusInd Bank and YES Bank, officials at the respective banks. Nickel prices firmed up marginally to Rs 994.80 per kg in futures market on strong global cues and good industrial demand. At MCX nickel for delivery in March gained Rs 4.90, or 0.48%, to Rs 994.80 per kg in business turnover of 4,014 lots. The metal for delivery in April rose by Rs 4.40, or 0.46%, to Rs 999.90 per kg in 383 lots. Apart from increased domestic demand from alloy-makers, firming trend at LME helped nickel futures to trade higher. Globally, nickel for delivery in three months climbed as much as 0.7% to $16,310 a tonne at the LME. COMMODITY MCX
  5. 5. DAILY REPORT 20th MARCH 2014 YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300 RECOMMENDATIONS GUARSEED BUY GUARSEED APR ABOVE 4785 TGTS 4815,4865 SL 4735 SELL GUARSEED APR BELOW 4720 TGTS 4690,4640 SL 4770 DHANIYA BUY DHANIYA APR ABOVE 9440 TGTS 9470,9520 SL 9390 SELL DHANIYA APR BELOW 9380 TGTS 9350,9300 SL 9430 NCDEX NCDEX INDICES Index Value % Change Castor Seed 4195 +0.29 Chana 3319 +1.78 Coriander 9390 -0.19 Cotton Seed Oilcake 1518 +1.20 Jeera 10070 +1.61 Maize– Feed/Industrial Grade 1231 +1.82 Mustard seed 3494 +1.45 Soy Bean 4325 +1.21 Turmeric 6548 -0.52 NCDEX ROUNDUP Cardamom futures fell marginally to Rs 859 per kg yester- day as traders reduced holdings amid sluggish spot demand. At the MCX, cardamom for May contract declined by Rs 4.30, or 0.49%, to Rs 859 per kg with a business turnover of 62 lots. The spice for delivery in April month fell by Rs 4.10, or 0.48%, to Rs 829.70 per kg with a trading volume of 268 lots. Profit booking by speculators at existing levels and fall in demand at spot markets put pressure on cardamom prices in futures market. Potato prices moved up by Rs 7.20 to Rs 1,182 per quintal in futures trade yesterday, on increased spot demand against restricted arrivals. At the MCX, potato for delivery in March rose by Rs 7.20, or 0.61%, to Rs 1,182 per quintal, with trad- ing volume of just five lots. The potato for delivery in April also moved up by Rs 5.60, or 0.46% to Rs 1,204 per quintal with a trade volume of 36 lots. Increased demand in the spot market against tight supplies from producing regions mainly pushed up potato prices at futures trade. India’s sugar output had fallen eight per cent this season until Saturday, compared to a year before, due to the ear- lier delay in commencing of cane crushing. Data from the ISMA showed 19.4 million tonnes of output till last Satur- day, vs 21.1 mt in the corresponding period last year. Isma lowered its production forecast for this season by 5% to 23.8 mt, as compared to 25.1 mt in the previous one.
  6. 6. DAILY REPORT 20th MARCH 2014 YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300 USD/INR SELL USD-INR BELOW 61.00 TGTS 60.87, 60.72 SL 61.28. BUY USD-INR ABOVE 61.50 TGTS 61.63, 61.78 SL 61.22. EUR/INR SELL EUR-INR BELOW 84.88 TGTS 84.75, 84.60 SL 85.16. BUY EUR-INR ABOVE 85.40 TGTS 85.54, 85.69 SL 85.12. CURRENCY ROUNDUP Currency in circulation grew 10% YoY in the week to March 14, lower than 10.6% a year earlier. The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note in yesterday’s trad- ing session. The currency appreciated in initial part of the trade due to surge in domestic markets at the record high level. Further, inflow of foreign funds into the equity mar- kets supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, fa- vorable inflation data from the country in last week acted as a positive factor. However, in later part of the trade cur- rency erased its gains and depreciated on the back of dollar demand from oil importers and its companies. Further, strength in the DX in later part of the trade acted as a nega- tive factor for the Indian Rupee. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day low of 61.20 and closed at 61.10 on Tuesday. For the month of March 2014, FII inflows totaled at Rs.6471.80 crores ($1056.57 million) as on 18th March 2014. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.8590.40 crores ($1410.10 million) as on 18th March 2014. From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to trade on a mixed note on the back of mixed market sentiments cou- pled with strength in the DX will exert downside pressure in the currency. Further, dollar demand from the importers will act as a negative factor. While on the other hand, ease of geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia can cushion sharp fall or reversal in the currency. The dollar shot up against most major currencies on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut its monthly bond- buying program to $55 billion from $65 bn, while comments from Janet Yellen suggesting a possible timetable as to when rates may rise spooked markets and sent investors chasing safe-haven greenback positions. Fed bond pur- chases spur recovery by suppressing interest rates, weaken- ing the dollar in the process. In U.S. trading on Wednesday, EUR/USD was down 0.75% at 1.3829. The Fed earlier said it was leaving interest rates unchanged and reduced the amount of bonds it buys in the open market each month to $55 bn from $65 bn, both moves in line with expectations. CURRENCY RBI Reference Rate Currency Rate Currency Rate Rupee- $ 61.0970 Yen-100 60.1800 Euro 85.0790 GBP 101.4149
  7. 7. DAILY REPORT 20th MARCH 2014 YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300 CALL REPORT PERFORMANCE UPDATES Date Commodity/ Currency Pairs Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark 19/03/14 MCX GOLD APR. BUY 30270 30350-30450 30150 NOT EXECUTED 19/03/14 MCX GOLD APR. SELL 30150 30070-29970 30270 BOOKED FULL PROFIT 19/03/14 MCX SILVER MAY BUY 46050 46250-46550 45700 NOT EXECUTED 19/03/14 MCX SILVER MAY SELL 45700 45500-45150 46050 BOOKED PROFIT 19/03/14 NCDEX GUARSEED APR.. BUY 4870 4900-4950 4820 NOT EXECUTED 19/03/14 NCDEX GUARSEED APR. SELL 4700 4670-4620 4750 NOT EXECUTED 19/03/14 NCDEX DHANIYA APR. BUY 9435 9465-9515 9385 BOOKED PROFIT 19/03/14 NCDEX DHANIYA APR. SELL 9380 9350-9300 9430 BOOKED PROFIT 19/03/14 EUR/INR MAR. SELL 84.88 84.74-84.60 85.18 NOT EXECUTED 19/03/14 EUR/INR MAR. BUY 85.34 85.48-85.62 85.04 NOT EXECUTED 19/03/14 JPY/INR MAR. SELL 59.93 59.80-59.66 60.21 NOT EXECUTED 19/03/14 JPY/INR MAR. BUY 60.65 60.78-60.92 60.37 NOT EXECUTED Date Scrip CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark 19/03/14 NIFTY FUTURE SELL 6580-6600 6550-6510 6625 NOT EXECUTED 19/03/14 TATA MOTROS FUTURE SELL 385-388 381-375 392 CALL OPEN 19/03/14 ARVIND FUTURE BUY 148-150 152-155 145 BOOKED PROFIT 19/03/14 POLARIS FINANCIAL CASH BUY 150-155 165-170 140 BOOKED FULL PROFIT 18/03/14 LT FUTURE BUY 1250-1260 1290-1325 1220 CALL OPEN 18/03/14 SOMANI CERAMICS CASH BUY 155-160 170-185 145 CALL OPEN 14/03/14 NIFTY FUTURE SELL 6550-6540 6500-6450 6595 CALL OPEN 11/03/14 OBEROI REALITY CASH BUY 210 220-235 200 CALL OPEN 10/02/14 KRBL CASH BUY 45-46 50-54 40 CALL OPEN
  8. 8. DAILY REPORT 20th MARCH 2014 YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300 NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS ECONOMIC CALENDAR The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility. The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making invest- ment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular invest- ments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views ex- pressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. We are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid or Unpaid), any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken. Disclaimer TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL CONSENSUS FORECAST PREVIOUS MONDAY, MARCH 17 8:30 am Empire state index March 5.4 4.5 9:15 am Industrial production Feb. 0.2% -0.3% 9:15 am Capacity utilization Feb. -- 78.5% 10 am Home builders' index March 50 46 TUESDAY, MARCH 18 8:30 am Consumer price index Feb. 0.1% 0.1% 8:30 am Core CPI Feb. 0.1% 0.1% 8:30 am Housing starts Feb. 913,000 880,000 8:30 am Building permits Feb. -- 945,000 WEDNESDAY, MARCH 19 8:30 am Current account deficit 4Q -- -$95 bln 2 pm FOMC announcement $55 bln $65 bln 2:30 pm Yellen press conference THURSDAY, MARCH 20 8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 3-15 326,000 315,000 10 am Existing home sales Feb. 4.58 mln 4.62 mln 10 am Philly Fed March 4.3 -6.3 10 am Leading economic indicators Feb. 0.1% 0.3% FRIDAY ,MARCH 21 8:30 am Producer price index, final demand Feb. 0.2% 0.2%