Cashin - A Northern MN Perspective: Progress & Challenges
Environmental Initiative Duluth Air Quality Dialogue May 2, 2012 Up in the Air: What Changes in Federal Air Quality Standards Could Mean for Minnesota A Northern Minnesota Perspective Progress and Challenges Michael G. Cashin, PE Minnesota Power (ALLETE)email@example.com
Northern Minnesota Enjoys Good Air Quality• Excursions in air quality degradation areassociated with transport of emissions from theSouth and Southeast• Occasionally, natural events like forest firesexhibit effects• May through September is the typical season forexcursions• Emissions loading in Northern Minnesota andMinnesota in general has been greatly reducedover the last twenty years• Further emissions reductions are planned, helpingassure continued good air quality
Northern Minnesota Enjoys Good Air QualityGround level air quality monitors confirm good air quality • Ground level monitor: 3 consecutive years analyses are needed to make a proper NAAQS Attainment Determination • Monitors have shown a history of good air quality in Northern Minnesota • Scarcity of monitors in some areas suggests modeled attainment (requirement rescinded by EPA). • Use of Modeled air quality overstates degradation relative to ground level monitors (ref. Atlanta area study) • Modeling false nonattainment hits confuse effective resource deployment. Risk wasted $$ better applied ??
Conditions Vulnerable to Air Quality Degradation Thermal Inversions Concentrate Pollutants. Transport Raises Background
Sensitivity of the general population matters The Air Quality Index tool allows developing air quality degradation to be tracked and warnings issued to sensitive group if conditions so warrant. Sensitive Group Varying sensitivities to exposure challenges EPA when updating NAAQS.http://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.main
NAAQS: Set at a level protective of human health and welfare with a margin of safety Death (eventually, life Statistical uncertainty expectancy is 78.1 years) when trying to measure low level Smoking: Extra chance of cancer death (life expectancy shortened avg. 14 years, 19% are risks impedes smokers, > half die prematurely, ref. CDC) accuracy (e.g. isolate Margin of Safety confounding factors) USEPA regulates so risks Equivalent to one person in fall in or below this range the USA (1 in 312 Million) One person in the One in a world (1 in 7 Billion) MillionReference: Dr. John Paling, Risk in Perspective , Paling Perspective Scale
MP SO2 and NOx emission rates M i nne s o t a P o w e r C o a l U ni t E mi s s i o n R a t e s O v e r T i me Minnesota Power is 2.000 1.800 trending with other 1.600 SO2 NOx 1.400 Minnesota sources 1.200 1.000 towards lower emissions 0.800 0.600 0.400 0.200 0.000 1980 A ctual 2000 A ctual 2010 A ctual We i g h t e d A v e r a g e E mi s s i o n R a t e Minnesota EGU NOx emission rates MN EGU SO2 emission rates NOx Emissions and SO2 Emissions and SO2 Average Input-based NOx 100,000 100,000 Output-based Emission Rates 0.6 100,000 120,000 7 90,000 Emission 0.5 100,000 from Minnesota Electric lb/MMBtu energy input 6 80,000 Rate from Minnesota Generating Units 70,000 5 EGUs 0.4 80,000 60,000 Tons tons lb/MWH tons 50,000 0.3 4Tons 60,000 short 40,000 to 3 0.2 to 30,000 40,000 lb 20,000 2 0.1 10,000 20,000 1 0 0 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 0- 0 1995 2000 year 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 year
Diversifying MP Energy Sourcing, 2005 through 2024 Minnesota Power Generation 2005 Retrofit of Emission Controls, Minnesota Power Generation in 2013 Expanded Conservation, Diversification MP Hydro 4% of MP Energy Sourcing: 3% Good MP environmental performance MP Hydro Biom ass 4% Coal Biom ass history and continuous improvement 75% 1% 95% Coal Wind planned going forward. 95% 13% Manitoba Hydro Purchase MP Energy Sources in 2024 5% Latest Integrated Resource Plan Market MP Energy Sources in 2012 Purchases Expanded 8% Conservation Market Purchases 1% 11% Manitoba Existing Manitoba 1% Coal LongTerm Coal MHEB ShortTerm 75% 11% 53% 1% Wind 6% 75% 53% Hydro Wind 4% 21% Biomass 2% Hydro Biomass 4% 2%
Monitoring network documents air quality Duluth SO2 Monitor terminated after 2010 data collected. International Falls SO2 one year monitoring is planned.
Duluth s SO2 Air Quality Monitor (Torrey Building) In Service for 2010 CY Only 2010 SO2 Monitor, One Hour average Highest Values Start Sample Value Month Date Time (ppm) Sample Value (ppb) Count# December 20101215 9:00 0.024 24.00 1 May 20100520 15:00 0.015 15.00 2 January 20100109 15:00 0.01 10.00 3 2010 4th January 20100123 18:00 0.009 9.00 4 12% of NAAQS Highest April 20100428 14:00 0.009 9.00 5Daily Max May 20100528 13:00 0.008 8.00 6 June 20100602 12:00 0.008 8.00 7 June 20100603 11:00 0.008 8.00 8 April 20100406 14:00 0.007 7.00 9 2010 Average 0.15 2010 Maximum 24.00 Primary 1-hour SO2 NAAQS is 75 ppb, calculated as the 3-year average of the 99th percentile of 1-hour daily maximum concentrations This equates to the "high 4th high (H4H)" value … the 4th highest daily max 1-hour concentration in a year
1-Hour SO2 Twin Cities< ½ the SO2 NAAQS 1-Hour SO2 Monitors show real Minnesota NAAQS attainment. Going forward, the Twin Cities is the focal point for SO2 Monitors Role of Modeled Attainment? EPA has rescinded modeled 1-hour SO2 attainment for initial designations. Stakeholder hearings underway.
Five Year Wind Rose, 2006 through 2010 Duluth Sky Harbor Airport2010 SO2 Monitor Duluth, December 14-15 2010
Twin Cities area air quality impacts Duluth during Duluth s air quality excursion periods. Duluth, December 14-15 2010 Wind Speed 5 1/2 to 13 kilometers/hour 1 knot = 1.85 kph or 1.15 mph 50 km
Moving ForwardWe will ensure a regional energy supply that is: • affordable, • reliable, • reduces environmental impact and • promotes a competitive business environment and an exceptional quality of life.