Canadian Consumer Attitudes in Hard Times




                 January 2009
Consumer confidence plummets to levels seen in recessions
of early 80’s and 90’s – but rebounded slightly in December


  ...
Western outlook rosier but concern rises across Canada over the last
few months




                                      ...
Declining enthusiasm for consumption well before the
meltdown




                                     To spend, to buy my...
Canadians are less enthusiastic consumers than Americans already


Agree (Strongly & Somewhat) –
                         ...
Enthusiasm for consumption is stronger among New
Canadians

    Agreement with “To spend, to buy             Agreement wit...
Certain grocery trends likely to be accelerated
Reduced channel repertoire…Fewer trips and more spent per trip




       ...
Continued growth of discount grocery and mass
merchandise channels




            Source: AC Nielsen Homescan Panel
Flyer use ….including online

                      Checked Flyers Before Last Trip




              Male                ...
Understanding changes in consumer brand adoption requires an understanding of
many behaviours…starting with an understandi...
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Canadian Consumer Response to Recession

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A short speculation on responses and trends in the recession among Canadian consumers

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Canadian Consumer Response to Recession

  1. 1. Canadian Consumer Attitudes in Hard Times January 2009
  2. 2. Consumer confidence plummets to levels seen in recessions of early 80’s and 90’s – but rebounded slightly in December Consumer confidence 2000 - 2008 62 48 52 44 36 Good time to buy Bad time to buy Neither good nor bad 27 6 7 7 Ja Ap Jl O O O Ja Mr Jn O D Ap Jl O D Mr Jl O D Mr Jn O D Mr Jn O D Mr Jn O D 00 00 00 00 01 02 03 03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 Source: Environics Focus Canada 2008-3 survey
  3. 3. Western outlook rosier but concern rises across Canada over the last few months 58 57 56 52 52 49 48 49 46 44 44 40 38 35 B.C. Alb. Sask. Man. Ont. Que. Atl. June 2008 October 2008 Source: Environics Focus Canada 2008-3 survey
  4. 4. Declining enthusiasm for consumption well before the meltdown To spend, to buy myself something new is one of my greatest pleasures in life I like to be informed of new products and services immediately so I can use them Source: Environics Social Values Monitor
  5. 5. Canadians are less enthusiastic consumers than Americans already Agree (Strongly & Somewhat) – 59 Top 2 Box % 60 44 43 40 34 33 31 Canada U.S. 20 0 I like to be immediately I am prepared to pay Typically, I am the first informed of new products more for products that person I know to try a and services so that I can are a bit different from new product or service use them those one sees all over the place
  6. 6. Enthusiasm for consumption is stronger among New Canadians Agreement with “To spend, to buy Agreement with “I like to be myself something new, is for me one of immediately informed of new products the greatest pleasures in life” and services so that I can use them” 58 56 55 51 50 46 46 42 East Asian South Asian East Asian South Asian 2003-2005 2006-2008 2003-2005 2006-2008
  7. 7. Certain grocery trends likely to be accelerated Reduced channel repertoire…Fewer trips and more spent per trip Source: AC Nielsen Homescan Panel
  8. 8. Continued growth of discount grocery and mass merchandise channels Source: AC Nielsen Homescan Panel
  9. 9. Flyer use ….including online Checked Flyers Before Last Trip Male Female Checked Online 4% 12% 5% 6% 10% 7% 9% 6% 9
  10. 10. Understanding changes in consumer brand adoption requires an understanding of many behaviours…starting with an understanding of the category Will the category decline? Yes No Will category consumption occasions decline? Will the brand be substituted? No Yes Yes No What could motivate Will the need be met Which categories will substitution? by other occasions? be substituted for that occasion? What motivates substitution? Shopper behaviour? Planned? At the shelf? Trade off? Reduced purchase occasion? Change in needs/usage? Change in channel use or trip?

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