Use of Statistics in civil engineering and in real life

Use of Statics In Civil
Engineering And In Real Life
Presented by:
Engr Habib ur Rehman Chandio
Department of Civil Engineering
University of Wah, Wah Cantt.

Statistics
• the practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical data in large
quantities, especially for the purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from
those in a representative sample.
OR
• A collection of methods for planning experiments, obtaining data, and then then
organizing, summarizing, presenting, analyzing, interpreting, and drawing
conclusions based on the data.
Use of Statics in Real Life

Let's look at some examples Daily Life
Weather Forecasts
• Do you watch the weather forecast sometime during the day? How do you use
that information? Have you ever heard the forecaster talk about weather
models? These computer models are built using statistics that compare prior
weather conditions with current weather to predict future weather.
Emergency Preparedness
• What happens if the forecast indicates that a hurricane is imminent or that
tornadoes are likely to occur? Emergency management agencies move into high
gear to be ready to rescue people. Emergency teams rely on statistics to tell them
when danger may occur

Psychology:
• Although this is attached to both the science and medical field, success in
psychology would impossible without the systematic study of human behavior,
often analyzing results statistically.
Stock Market:
• Another topic that you hear a lot about in the news is the stock market. Stock
analysts also use statistical computer models to forecast what is happening in
the economy

Predicting Disease:
• Lots of times on the news reports, statistics about a disease are reported. If
the reporter simply reports the number of people who either have the disease
or who have died from it, it's an interesting fact but it might not mean much to
your life. But when statistics become involved, you have a better idea of how
that disease may affect you.
For example, studies have shown that 85 to 95 percent of lung cancers are
smoking related. The statistic should tell you that almost all lung cancers are
related to smoking and that if you want to have a good chance of avoiding lung
cancer, you shouldn't smoke

Education:
• Teachers are encouraged to be researchers in their classrooms, to see what
teaching methods work on which students and understand why. They also
should evaluate test items to determine if students are performing in a
statistically expected way. At all levels of education and testing there are
statistical reports about student performance, from kindergarten to an SAT or
GRE.

Genetics:
• Many people are afflicted with diseases that come from their genetic make-up
and these diseases can potentially be passed on to their children. Statistics are
critical in determining the chances of a new baby being affected by the disease
Political Campaigns:
• Whenever there's an election, the news organizations consult their models
when they try to predict who the winner is. Candidates consult voter polls to
determine where and how they campaign. Statistics play a part in who your
elected government officials will be.

Quality Testing:
• Companies make thousands of products every day and each company must
make sure that a good quality item is sold. But a company can't test each and
every item that they ship to you, the consumer. So the company uses statistics
to test just a few, called a sample, of what they make. If the sample passes
quality tests, then the company assumes that all the items made in the group,
called a batch, are good.

Statistics in Banking
• Banks use statistics for a great number of the services they offer. A bank works
on the idea that someone will deposit their money and not withdraw all of it
later on. They earn their profit by lending money to others with interest, and
the money they use is the money other people deposit.
• Bankers use statistical approaches to estimate the number of people who will
be making deposits compared to the number of people requesting loans. A
great example of statistics used in banking is the FDIC’s own quarterly
publication called

Statistics in Business
• If you’re a business major, you’re familiar with the role statistics plays in your
field. However, if you haven’t gotten to that point yet, here’s some
information on statistics in the business field. Statistics involves making
decisions, and in the business world, you often have to make a quick decision
then and there. Using statistics, you can plan the production according to
what the customer likes and wants, and you can check the quality of the
products far more efficiently with statistical methods. In fact, many business
activities can be completed with statistics including deciding a new location,
marketing the product, and estimating what the profit will be on a new
product.

Insurance:
• You know that in order to drive your car you are required by law to have car
insurance. If you have a mortgage on your house, you must have it insured as
well. The rate that an insurance company charges you is based upon statistics
from all drivers or homeowners in your area
Consumer Goods:
• Wal-Mart, a worldwide leading retailer, keeps track of everything they sell and
use statistics to calculate what to ship to each store and when. From analyzing
their vast store of information, for example, Wal-Mart decided that people buy
strawberry Pop Tarts when a hurricane is predicted in Florida! So they ship this
product to Florida stores based upon the weather forecast

Management and Administration
• A nation’s government runs on statistics. They use statistical data to make
their decisions regarding any number of things. Most federal and provincial
budgets are designed upon statistical data because it’s the most accurate data
available when estimating expected expenditures and revenue.
• Another great example of statistics in the government is figuring out whether
or not to raise the minimum wage due to a rise in the cost of living. Statistical
data gives the government the best idea regarding whether or not the cost of
living will continue to rise

Medical Studies:
• Scientists must show a statistically valid rate of effectiveness before any drug
can be prescribed. Statistics are behind every medical study you hear about
Large Companies
• Every large company employs its own statistical research divisions or firms to
research issues related to products, employees, customer service, etc.
Business success relies on knowing what is working and what isn't.

Natural and Social Sciences
• Biology, physics, chemistry, meteorology, sociology, communication, and even
information technology all use statistics. For many of these categories, the use
of statistics in that field involves collecting data, analyzing it, coming up with a
hypothesis, and testing that hypothesis.
• In biology, the use of statistics within that field is known as biostatistics,
biometry, or biometrics. Biostatistics often involves the design of experiments
in medicine, , agriculture, and fishery. It also involves collecting, summarizing,
and analyzing the data received from those experiments as well as the
decided results. Medical biostatistics is a separate branch that deals mainly
with medicine and healthPhysics uses probability theory and statistics dealing
mainly with the estimation of large populations. In fact, the
phenomenological results of thermodynamics were developed using the
mechanics of statistics.

• There are further examples of statistics in these sciences fields
including analytical chemistry, which involves the presentation of
problems in data analysis and demonstrating steps to solve them.
Meteorology uses statistics in stochastic-dynamic prediction, weather
forecasting, probability forecasting, and a number of other fields.
• Sociology uses statistics to describe, explain, and predict from data
received. Like many of the sciences, communication uses statistical
methods to communicate data received. Information technology also
uses statistics to predict particular outcomes.

The Role of Statistics in Astronomy
• It is impossible to take out a ruler and measure the distance of the Earth from
the sun. Unless, of course, you somehow manage to invent a suit that can
survive the temperatures of the sun and design a ruler long enough to
measure such a distance. However, it would likely take you a very long time to
measure such a distance anyway.
• Instead, astronomers use estimates and mathematical theories to devise their
best guess to just how far items in the universe are away from each other.
This is why when you read a news report that a star will likely be going
supernova “any day now,” you have to understand that “any day now” could
mean tomorrow, a year from now, or even ten thousand years from now.

Applications of Statistic in Civil Engineering
•The following situations are examples from the field of civil
engineering where variation occurs and statistical method
either are or could be applied. In some instances the
current practice may not be very sound based on statistical
theory. These applications are useful for analyzing and
discussing the use of statistics in the practice of civil
engineering.

Sanitary Engineering
• Given: A series of samples of wastewater ("water" from a sewer) and results of
biological oxygen demand (BOD) tests
Find: The design BOD, which is the value that corresponds to a certain
probability of not being exceeded. This value would be used to design the
wastewater treatment plant.
Commentary: A deterministic approach would use the mean BOD and apply
some factor of safety.

Traffic/Transportation Engineering
• Given: An intersection between a residential street and a major artery in a suburban
community. The residential street has a stop sign, but the artery does not.
• An access road for a new recreation area is to have a toll booth. The distribution of
vehicles per minute, the time required to process each vehicle, and the length of
roadway required for each waiting vehicle are given.
• Find: The probability that a vehicle stopped at the stop sign will have to wait more
than a specified period before making a left turn onto the artery.
• The required "storage area", which is the minimum required length of roadway
between the toll booth and the adjacent highway such that the probability of
waiting vehicles extending onto the highway does not exceed a certain value.

• Commentary: The acceptable probability depends on the consequences of being
exceeded. For example, if the highway is a busy one-lane road, a very low design
value would be used, whereas if it is a low-volume four-lane road, perhaps a higher
probability would be acceptable.
• A similar analysis also could be done based on the probability of exceeding some
maximum acceptable waiting time.
Based on the results of such analyses, we might decided to have more than one toll
booth. If so, how often would both booths need to be in service? (study of waiting
lines)
• If this probability is too high a traffic signal may be warranted. Traffic engineers
perform this kind of analysis to determine where to place traffic signals.

Surveying and Mapping
• Given: A series of measurements from the field, each of which is made using an
instrument that has a certain precision.
• Commentary: Many measurements in surveying are made using a series of
instrument setups. For example, consider a piece of property whose boundary
consists of 8 line segments. The orientation of one of these segments with
respect to true north is known to a precision of 20" of arc. A surveyor sets up a
"total station" (an instrument that measures angles and distances) at each of
the 8 corners, and measures the angles to a precision of 20" and the distances
to a precision of 0.01 ft. These measurements are then "adjusted" so that
satisfy the rules of geometry.
Find: The precision of the computed orientations of the other property lines. It
is not 20"!

Coastal and Port Engineering
• Given: Anticipated distribution of cargo ship arrivals at a port in the year 2010,
and the mean time required for a ship to occupy a berth.
Find: The number of berths required so the probability of a ship having to wait
more than a certain number of hours to enter a berth is no more than x.
Commentary: A large amount of construction is currently under way at the ports
in Long Beach and Los Angeles. Portions of this construction would be based on
these kinds of analysis.

Geotechnical Engineering
• Given: Four soil samples obtained from a certain stratum of soil and the results
of laboratory consolidation tests on each sample. These test results are used to
compute the settlement that will occur if a certain load is placed on this strata.
Find: Considering only variations due to the sample locations (i.e., assuming the
sampling method, testing, and analysis introduce no uncertainty), compute the
probability that the settlement will exceed some specified value.
Commentary: I've seen data that indicate COV values of 0.26 to 0.52 from
multiple samples obtained from "homogeneous" strata. Thus, analyses based on
mean values could produce results that are seriously in error.
Related analysis: Given the cost of sampling and testing, how many samples
should be taken

Hydrology
• Given: Stream flow records for the Santa Ana River near Corona.
Find: The stream flow (ft^3/s) that corresponds to a particular recurrence interval. This flow can
then be used to design dams, levees, etc.
• Commentary: After a devastating flood in 1938, the Army Corps of Engineers built Prado Dam to
protect Orange County. This dam and its spillway can be seen from the 91 freeway (the spillway
has 1776-1976 painted on it). The reservoir behind this dam is normally empty, and is intended to
capture the excess flood waters in the event of another major flood, thus keeping the stream flow
below the dam at manageable levels. This dam was designed based on the best hydrologic data
and analyses then available. However, subsequent analyses performed in the 1970s and 1980s
found the flood that corresponds to a certain recurrence interval (200 years?) is much greater
than had previously been considered. Such a flood could overtop the dam, causing it to fail, thus
producing massive flooding in Orange County. Because of this, the Army Corps of Engineers is
currently building a massive flood control project along the Santa Ana River, which includes a new
dam upstream of Prado (Seven Oaks Dam), new levees, and the raising of Prado Dam. This is a
massive construction project, all of which is based on a statistical analysis of hydrologic data.

Environmental Engineering
• Given: A series of groundwater samples obtained at different locations and
depths in an aquifer, and the concentration of a certain chemical in each
sample.
Find: The probability that the concentration at any point in the aquifer
exceeds some specified value.

Earthquake Engineering/Seismology
• Given: A proposed dam to be built at a certain site, the probability of
earthquakes of various sizes occurring on faults at various locations, the
predicted peak horizontal ground acceleration at the dam site from each of
these earthquakes.
Find: The design peak ground acceleration, which is the one that corresponds
to a certain probability of being exceeded during the design life of the dam.

• Structural Engineering
• Given: The Uniform Building Code dictates certain design values for the live load on
building elements (live load is that load induced by furniture, inventory, occupants,
moveable objects, etc., as contrasted to dead load (the structure itself), earthquake
load, wind load, etc.). For example, the code-specified design load for classrooms is
40 lb/ft^2.
Find: The probability that this design load will be exceeded.
buildings. I couldn't
• Commentary: I've seen some statistical data on live loads based on actual
measurements in find it in my files, but I think the COV is about 0.10, and the
probability of exceeding is about 0.05.
A design method called "load and resistance factor design" (LRFD), which our
students learn in a junior-level course, uses "load factors" and "resistance factors"
that have been developed from extensive reliability analyses. Although design
engineer simply uses the specified factors in a typical design, it is important to
understand how the building codes developed them.

Thank you …
… for paying attention

Use of Statistics in civil engineering and in real life

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