Green schemes 2012_npe_eo_y lecture perth v9

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Green schemes 2012_npe_eo_y lecture perth v9

  1. 1. Australia’s Green Electricity Schemes Costs and Benefits Perth 13 February 2013 Dr Robert Barr Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 2012 National Professional Electrical Engineer of the Year - National Lecture Tour© Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 2012 1 Perfect Storm of Rising Electricity Costs • Conventional Generation • AEMO Market Charges • Metering • Network Charges – N-1 type regulatory requirements – Somerville Report (2004) – P.M. says “gold plating” • Green Electricity Schemes – Carbon TaxElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 2 1
  2. 2. Solar PhotovoltaicElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 3 WindElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 4 2
  3. 3. HydroElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 5 Valley Power, Latrobe Valley, Victoria Australia 300MW Open Cycle Natural Gas 6 x 50MW Peaking Plant – Snowy HydroElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 6 3
  4. 4. Eraring Power Station 4x 660 MW Black CoalElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 7 Yallourn Power Station 1,490 MW Brown Coal – 4 unitsElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 8 4
  5. 5. Tallawarra Power Station 435 MW Combined Cycle Natural GasElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 9 Muja Power Station 2 x 200 MW + 2 x 227 MW CoalElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 10 5
  6. 6. Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 11 Electricity Green Schemes • National Schemes – Large Renewable Energy Target (LRET) • includes large wind, solar & hydro – Small Scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) • including solar water heaters, heat pumps, solar panel systems, small-scale wind systems, small hydro – Carbon TaxElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 12 6
  7. 7. Electricity Green Schemes • NSW Schemes – Energy Saving Scheme (ESS) • incentives to save energy – Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scheme (GHGR) • CO2 abatement scheme – targets with penalties – Solar feed-in tariff (was gross – now net) • Other States – Solar feed-in tariffs – Others?Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 13 Energy Environmental Objectives • Resource Sustainability – How many years can we keep up our current use of resources before they run out? • Reduced Carbon Emissions – How many tonnes of CO2 emissions/year can be saved? • National Energy Independence – Can we sustain our energy needs without undue dependence on overseas supplies?Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 14 7
  8. 8. Australian Fuel Sustainability Proven Reserves (approximate) Fuel At current  At Australian  production rates usage rates Brown Coal 1,000 years 1,000 years Black Coal 100 years 240 years Natural Gas 72 years 112 yearsElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 15 Carbon Intensity Tonnes of  Fuel CO2 /MWh  Brown Coal 1.4  Black Coal 0.9 Natural Gas Open Cycle Gas  0.65 Turbine Natural Gas Combined Cycle  0.4 Gas Turbine Hydro 0 Wind 0 Solar PV 0Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 16 8
  9. 9. Construction Cost $ Capital  Tonnes of  Fuel Construction  CO2 /MWh  Cost/MW Brown Coal 1.4  High Black Coal 0.9 High Natural Gas Open Cycle Gas  0.65 Low Turbine Natural Gas Combined Cycle  0.4 Medium Gas Turbine Extremely  Hydro 0 high Wind 0 High Solar PV 0 Very highElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 17 Dispatch $ Capital  Dispatch  Tonnes of  Fuel Construction  Capable CO2 /MWh  Cost/MW Brown Coal 1.4  High Yes Black Coal 0.9 High Yes Natural Gas Open Cycle Gas  0.65 Low Yes Turbine Natural Gas Combined Cycle  0.4 Medium Yes Gas Turbine Extremely  Hydro 0 Yes high Wind 0 High No Solar PV 0 Very high NoElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 18 9
  10. 10. Ability to Rapidly Change Output $ Capital  Dispatch  Ability to Rapidly Tonnes of  Fuel Construction  Capable Change Output  CO2 /MWh  Cost/MW Brown Coal 1.4  High Yes No Black Coal 0.9 High Yes No Natural Gas Open Cycle Gas  0.65 Low Yes Yes Turbine Natural Gas Combined Cycle  0.4 Medium Yes Moderate Gas Turbine Extremely  Hydro 0 Yes Yes high Wind 0 High No Nil Solar PV 0 Very high No NilElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 19 Wind • Every 100MW of wind generation requires about 90 MW of conventional generation for backup • All wind generation needs a “dancing partner” • Wind is only financially viable with LRET • Will most likely be the main method of reaching the 20% renewable target for 2020Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 20 10
  11. 11. Solar Photovoltaic • Lends itself to distributed use at the domestic level • At 60 c/kWh and other green scheme subsidies it becomes attractive to customers • Is causing network stressElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 21 Embedded Generation Issues • Benefits  Negatives ◦ Voltage rise – Reduce network losses ◦ Cold load pick up – Delay augmentations? ◦ Dual power flow analysis – Voltage support? ◦ Some network – Green kWhs? augmentations required 11
  12. 12. Modeled Conventional DispatchElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 23 Modeled Small WindElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 24 12
  13. 13. Modeled Large Scale Wind 13% WindElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 25 SA WindElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 26 13
  14. 14. Modeled Large Scale Wind Constant Load – Dancing Partner 70% of 0.65 Tonnes CO2/MWH OCG= 0.45 Tonnes CO2/MWH Compare with 0.4 Tonnes CO2/MWH for CCG 30% WindElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 27 CO2 Emissions + > Wind OCG CCGElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 28 14
  15. 15. AEMO Data Carbon Tax Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 29 Conclusions • Renewables are only viable with government legislated green schemes • Wind and solar PV generation require large scale conventional “backup” power generation – dancing partners • Economics will drive much of the “back up” generation to be open cycle gas: – Capital cost – Higher CO2 producing plantElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 30 15
  16. 16. Conclusions • The current policy settings are increasing the use of natural gas – reducing Australia’s sustainability in terms of energy reserves • Greenhouse gas savings are coming mainly from: – the switch from coal to natural gas – Less energy use due to high energy prices and price elasticity • Wind and solar PV in their present form are making little or no direct contribution to CO2 savings • New energy storage breakthroughs are required to make renewables viableElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 31 Important Issues • Increased focus needed on: – end use energy efficiency – Using less electricity – electricity network losses • Research – energy storage • Change of emphasis from: – “feel good” green schemes to policies that have some solid engineering logic • Electricity Network costs – getting away from feast and famine capital investments – improved performance of regulators – taking a longer term viewElectric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 32 16
  17. 17. Questions?Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 33 17

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