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Policies That Work: Cities Edition

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This presentation identifies important city-level policies and the design principles that make them successful, especially as they relate to the China context.

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Policies That Work: Cities Edition

  1. 1 有效的政策 城市篇 POLICIES THAT WORK CITIES EDITION HAL HARVEY 何好
  2. 2 提纲OUTLINE 1. 中国城市的重要性Chinese cities are at the frontline 2. 政策不可或缺Policy is required 3. 中国城市需要哪些政策? Which policies matter for Chinese cities? 4. 设计城市政策的五个原则Five principles for policy design in cities
  3. 3 前线在于城市CITIES AT THE FRONTLINE 1. 城市占国内生产总值的 重要部分Cities are a significant part of GDP 2. 中国的城市正在成长 China’s cities are growing 3. 空气质量Air quality 4. 气候变化Climate change
  4. 4 总共人口 中国城市人口 前线在于城市CITIES AT THE FRONTLINE 预测 历史数据来自国际银行预测来自联合国 1. 城市占国内生产总值的 重要部分Cities are a significant part of GDP 2. 中国的城市在快速增长 China’s cities are growing 3. 空气质量Air quality 4. 气候变化Climate change 中国乡村人口 中国城市人口在快速增长China’s growing urban population
  5. 5 前线在于城市CITIES AT THE FRONTLINE Haze in Wuhan, June 2012 武汉浓雾(2012年6月) Source: Phys.org 1. 城市占国内生产总值的 重要部分Cities are a significant part of GDP 2. 中国的城市在快速增长 China’s cities are growing 3. 空气质量Air quality 4. 气候变化Climate change
  6. 6 前线在于城市CITIES AT THE FRONTLINE Source: The Atlantic 1. 城市占国内生产总值的 重要部分Cities are a significant part of GDP 2. 中国的城市在快速增长 China’s cities are growing 3. 空气质量Air quality 4. 气候变化Climate change
  7. 7 提纲OUTLINE 1. 中国城市的重要性Chinese cities are at the frontline 2. 政策不可或缺Policy is required 3. 中国城市需要哪些政策? Which policies matter for Chinese cities? 4. 城市政策设计的五个原则Five principles for policy design in cities
  8. 8 政策不可或缺POLICY IS REQUIRED 为了鼓励科研 To encourage R&D 杜伦大学 金丝雀可变光学镭射 Canary Adaptive Optics Laser – Durham University Source: 链接:http://www.stfc.ac.uk/2858.aspx
  9. 9 北京:不同日子, 同一个景观 SAME VIEW OF BEI J ING, DIFFERENT DAYS Source: Reddit user, SallyImpossible 政策不可或缺POLICY IS REQUIRED
  10. 10 快速公交系统前 广州 BEFORE BRT Guangzhou Source: www.fastcoexist.com 政策不可或缺POLICY IS REQUIRED
  11. 11 政策不可或缺POLICY IS REQUIRED 快速公交系统后 广州 AFTER BRT Guangzhou Source: ITDP
  12. 12 提纲OUTLINE 1. 中国城市上了前线Chinese cities are at the frontline 2. 政策不可或缺Policy is required 3. 中国城市需要哪些政策? Which policies matter for Chinese cities? 4. 城市政策设计的五个原则Five principles for policy design in cities
  13. 13 城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR CITIES? San Francisco 旧金山Vancouver 温哥华New York 纽约市 Shanghai 上海Beijing 北京Portland 波特兰 1. 城市形态Urban form 2. 交通Transportation 3. 机动车管制Car control 4. 建筑物Buildings 5. 再生能源Renewable energy 6. 经济质量Economic quality
  14. 14 城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR CITIES? 以人为本的城市建设 繁荣低碳的城市化之道 1. 城市形态Urban form 2. 交通Transportation 3. 机动车管制Car control 4. 建筑物Buildings 5. 再生能源Renewable energy 6. 经济质量Economic quality
  15. 15 城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR CITIES? Bike paths in Bogota 波哥大的自行车道 1. 城市形态Urban form 2. 交通Transportation 3. 机动车管制Car control 4. 建筑物Buildings 5. 再生能源Renewable energy 6. 经济质量Economic quality Source: Mother Nature Network
  16. 16 城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR CITIES? 1. 城市形态Urban form 2. 交通Transportation 3. 机动车管制Car control 4. 建筑物Buildings 5. 再生能源Renewable energy 6. 经济质量Economic quality Source: http://auto.hsw.cn/system/2012/10/30/051521933.shtml
  17. 城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR CITIES? Green building in Shenzhen 深圳绿色建筑17 1. 城市形态Urban form 2. 交通Transportation 3. 机动车管制Car control 4. 建筑物Buildings 5. 再生能源Renewable energy 6. 经济质量Economic quality
  18. 城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR CITIES? Harvard-Tsinghua study – Wind energy alone can meet China’s energy demand in 2030 (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/news/415311/chinas-potent- 18 wind-potential/page/1/ ) 容量因素 哈佛清华联合研究- 风力发电可于2030年单独满足中国能源需求- 更多资讯: 1. 城市形态Urban form 2. 交通Transportation 3. 机动车管制Car control 4. 建筑物Buildings 5. 再生能源Renewable energy 6. 经济质量Economic quality
  19. 19 城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR CITIES? 1. 城市形态Urban form 2. 交通Transportation 3. 机动车管制Car control 4. 建筑物Buildings 5. 再生能源Renewable energy 6. 经济质量Economic quality Source: Opli
  20. 20 城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR CITIES? 1. 城市形态Urban form 2. 交通Transportation 3. 机动车管制Car control 4. 建筑物Buildings 5. 再生能源Renewable energy 6. 经济质量Economic quality
  21. 21 提纲OUTLINE 1. 中国城市的重要性Chinese cities are at the frontline 2. 政策不可或缺Policy is required 3. 中国城市需要哪些政策? Which policies matter for Chinese cities? 4. Five principles for policy design in cities 设计城市政策的五个原则
  22. 22 城市政策设计的五个原则FIVE POLICY DESIGN PRINCIPLES 1. 设立明确政策目标,包括每年阶段性目标Set clear policy goals with annual interim targets 2. 针对成效,而非投资Focus on performance and not investment 3. 要求不断地进步Require continuous improvements 4. 于新的基础设施鼓励投资,不要留待将来翻新或替换Influence investment in new infrastructure when it is designed, rather than waiting to retrofit or replace it 5. 认真投资于数据分析、牌照发放及执行,确保执行过程中杜绝腐败 Invest seriously in analytics, permitting, and enforcement. Ensure that enforcement is incorruptible.
  23. 23 1.设立明确政策目标,包括每年阶段性目标SET CLEAR POLICY GOALS WITH ANNUAL INTERIM TARGETS 蒙特利尔公约禁用含氯氟烴,要求生产商寻求其他可能性 The Montreal Protocol banned CFCs, required manufacturers to figure out alternatives for their products Montreal Protocol signed CFCs HCFCs HFCs 让市场找出最佳 对策 Let the market find the best solution 蒙特利尔公约签署 氯氟化碳 氯氟烃 氟烃 10 立 方 公 吨 年份 Source: Down to Earth Blog
  24. 24 1.设立明确政策目标,包括每年阶段性目标SET CLEAR POLICY GOALS WITH ANNUAL INTERIM TARGETS Country comparison of fuel economy standards and targets 各国能源经济标准及目标比较 每 英 里 消 耗 汽 油 ( 加 仑 ) (按 企 业平均燃油消耗调整) 美国 加拿大 欧盟 日本 中国 南韩 澳洲 墨西哥 Beware unintended consequences: Cars v. trucks. Weight v. size 当心未能预见的后果:机动车vs货车,重量vs体积 Source: E&E Publishing
  25. 25 1.设立明确政策目标,包括每年阶段性目标SET CLEAR POLICY GOALS WITH ANNUAL INTERIM TARGETS 示例: 温哥华交通模式分类目标 EXAMPLE: Transportation mode share targets set by Vancouver 市 内 总 交 通 ( 程 数 ) 2008:交通量40%为人行、自行车或公交 2020:交通量不少于一般为人行、自行车或公交 2040:交通量不少于三分之二为人行、自行车或公交 机动车公交人行自行车 目标草案方向支持绿色城市交通目标,并为2040年设立新目标 Source: http://pricetags.wordpress.com/2012/06/22/transportation-2040-the-extraordinary-slides/
  26. 26 2.奖励成效,而非投资REWARD PERFORMANCE, NOT INVESTMENT 生产扣抵税额Production Tax Credit: • 奖励以风力产能Credit for electricity generation from wind 投资扣抵税额Investment Tax Credit: • 支付部分风能项目发展支出 Covers portion of wind project development costs 美国总风能电力电容及发电 百万瓦 十亿瓦小时 发电量 电容量 美国风能发电量 (十亿瓦小时) 美国风能电容量 及按年增长值 总量(千万瓦)|增长百分率
  27. 27 2.奖励成效,而非投资REWARD PERFORMANCE, NOT INVESTMENT 英国对再生能源的需求 UK’s Renewables Obligation • 要求在2020年前以再生能源生产15%能源 Committed to generating 15% of power from renewables by 2020 • 再生能源生产者按每百万瓦小时获发再生能 源证书Generators of renewable electricity earn certificates (ROC) on a per MWh basis • 本土:0.9 证书/百万瓦小Onshore: 0.9 ROC/MWh • 离岸:2 证书/百万瓦小时Offshore: 2 ROC/MWh Source: UK Government
  28. 28 2.奖励成效,而非投资REWARD PERFORMANCE, NOT INVESTMENT 堵塞漏洞,重视正确指标(发电量,而非电容量) Avoid loopholes, value the cor rect metric (generation, not capacity) 风能器材安装及非电网连接(2006-2012) 增 加( 千 万 瓦) 非 电 网 连 接 电 容量(%) 新安装非连接电容量 Source: Business Green
  29. 29 3.不断地要求进步REQUIRE CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT  鼓励动态科技Incentivizes dynamic technologies  分配部分进步于公众利益Allocates some improvement to the public good 领先者计划 由最高效者 订立指标 功能系数 领先者标准 于1999年实施 目标年份:2004 发热功能系数制冷功能系数
  30. 30 3.不断地要求进步REQUIRE CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT 缺乏持续进步的政策示例 Example of policy without steady improvements:  企业平均燃油消耗标准CAFE Standards Nearly two decades of unimproved policy 政策停滞近二十年 每 加 仑 行 驶 英 里 数 1978-2025载客车辆燃油消耗指标 1. 国会订立客车指标(1978-1985) 2. 交通部将卡车指标订于最大可能值(1979-1995) 3. 交通部降低客车指标(1985-1989) 4. 交通部将客车标准订于27.5英里/加仑(1990-2010) 5. 国会将卡车标准冻结于20.7英里/加仑(1997-2001) 6. 布什政府新卡车目标(2005-2007) 7. 《能源独立及安全法案》修订企业平均燃油消耗至环境影响标准(2008至 今) 8. 欧巴马政府发布新订客车和卡车标准(2012-2016) 9. 欧巴马政府发布新订客车和卡车标准(2017-2025)
  31. 31 3.不断地要求进步REQUIRE CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT 设立持续要求进步的法规 Building codes that require continuous improvement 加州建筑规定
  32. 32 3.不断地要求进步REQUIRE CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT 反复行为造就我们。超群(非凡) 并非一单纯的行为,而是一习性。 -亚里斯多德 We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit. - Aristotle
  33. 33 4. 鼓励投资于新的基础设施INFLUENCE INVESTMENT IN NEW INFRASTRUCTURE • 基建设施可持续使用数十年,甚至数世纪 Infrastructure can last for decades or centuries • 从一开始就锁定效率‘Lock in’ efficiency from the start • 以资金股票回报统一投资Synchronize investment with capital stock turnover • 避免非必要升级及替换开支Avoid unnecessary upgrade or replacement costs 切勿留待更新或替换 DO NOT WAIT TO RETROFIT OR REPLACE Source: World Finance
  34. 34 5.认真投资于数据分析、牌照发放及执行INVEST SERIOUSLY IN ANALYTICS, PERMITTING, AND ENFORCEMENT 示例:京津冀地区空气质素数据分析 EXAMPLE: AIR QUALITY DATA ANALYSIS FOR JJJ REGION Beijing Tianjin Hebei 按行动计划措施所得PM2.5改善值 Source: Clean Air Alliance of China
  35. 35 谢谢! THANK YOU HAL HARVEY WWW.ENERGYINNOVATION.ORG 加州三藩市 S A N F R A N C I S C O , C A D A V I D Y U / C C B Y - N C - N D 2 . 0

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