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NZ Delphi overview of findings

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Exercise involving New Zealand transport experts (from the transport sector, councils, government and researchers). Over four surveys the Energy Cultures project asked about things like their perspectives on trends and shocks that might affect NZ’s transport system, and what NZ’s future transport system might look like. Some of the findings are reported in this presentation

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NZ Delphi overview of findings

  1. 1. THE FUTURE OF NEW ZEALAND'S TRANSPORT SYSTEM: FINDINGS FROM NZ DELPHI SURVEY Debbie Hopkins, Alaric McCarthy, Janet Stephenson Energy Cultures II Project Centre for Sustainability (CSAFE) Debbie.hopkins@otago.ac.nz
  2. 2. • Why is it important to think about New Zealand’s future transport system? • The Delphi Technique • The Delphi Panel • Results – Trends – Innovations – Step changes – Time frames – Characteristics of a sustainable transport system • Concluding remarks STRUCTURE
  3. 3. Reliance on imported fuel: • Imported crude oil accounts for 99.85% of New Zealand’s transport fuel requirements (MBIE, 2012) Used primarily by light passenger vehicles: • 94% of transport petrol is used for light passenger vehicles, 6% commercial and other uses. High car ownership rate: • Second highest private car ownership rate in the OECD; 604 cars per thousand people in 2013 Relatively old vehicle fleet: • Relatively old vehicle fleet – average of 13.2 years in 2012, compared to 11.4 years in the USA and 10.0 years for Australia Transport emissions: • New Zealand’s transport sector emissions per capita are approximately 3 t CO2-e and put New Zealand in the middle of the Annex 1 countries; higher than the EU (2t CO2-e/person) and below Australia (nearly 4t CO2-e/person) CONTEXT Source: MBIE, 2014
  4. 4. THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE… … a structured process enabling the collection and synthesis of knowledge from a group of experts … generates levels of agreement through iterative investigations of opinions Benefits:  Reduces power dynamics  Overcomes geographical constraints of bringing together geographically scattered experts  Valuable for issues with high uncertainty or disagreement
  5. 5. Round One (n=75) •Qualitative survey •Inviting Panel to list influential trends, innovations & step changes (free text) Round Two (n=67) •Quantifying the likelihood of the trends, innovations & step changes occurring, and their potential to transform the transport system •Time frames in which the stated changes would be likely to occur Round Three (n=55) •Quantifying levels of agreement/ disagreement arising from Rounds 1 & 2. •Identifying areas of high priority for interventions •Levels of agreement with International Delphi panel on features of a sustainable transport system for NZ Round Four (n=44) •Inviting Panel to describe the types of interventions required to support priorities (free text) NZ DELPHI 2014 86 PANELLISTS ACROSS 4 ROUNDS
  6. 6. DELPHI PARTICIPANT CHARACTERISTICS 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Consultant Other Academia Independent researcher Industry Non-governmental organisation Government (central + local) Number of expert participants Fields of expertise: Areas of highest reported expertise: ‘active transport’, ‘policy and planning’, ‘personal transport’ and ‘transport-related infrastructure’. Locally specified areas of expertise: Auckland = 19 Wellington = 14 Dunedin = 6 Bay of Plenty/ Waikato = 3
  7. 7. DEFINITIONS TRENDS: ‘things that are already changing’ INNOVATIONS: ‘novel technological, behavioural and policy developments’ STEP CHANGES: ‘possible rapid or sudden shifts, shocks, or changes in context’ BUSINESS-AS-USUAL (BAU): ‘the continuation of transport systems and practices that rely on finite resources and support automobile dependence’.
  8. 8. TRENDS
  9. 9. TRENDS (I) 1 2 3 4 5 Reducing cost of air transport relative to road… Urban form that supports active transport and… Rising concern about health implications of… Uptake of shared personal transport (e.g. car… Increasing political concern about climate change Uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) Increasing investment in active transport… Consolidation of ports and freight hubs Uptake of active transport (walking, cycling) Uptake of public transport Increasing investment in public transport… Increasing public concern about climate change Decreasing drivers licensing amongst youth Increasing truck size and carrying capacity Road congestion Decreasing car ownership amongst youth Use of travel substitution technologies (Internet,… Increasing percent of population in urban areas Aging population Rising fuel prices Lkelihood of TREND becoming widespread in 10 years (1= low, 5 = high) Top 5 trends most likely to become widespread in the next 10 years: 1. Rising fuel prices 2. Aging population 3. Increasing urbanisation 4. Use of travel substitution 5. Decreasing car ownership for youth
  10. 10. TRENDS (II) 1 2 3 4 5 Reducing cost of air transport relative to road transport Increasing truck size and carrying capacity Rising concern about health implications of transport… Consolidation of ports and freight hubs Road congestion Decreasing drivers licensing amongst youth Aging population Uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) Uptake of shared personal transport (e.g. car sharing,… Use of travel substitution technologies (Internet,… Decreasing car ownership amongst youth Uptake of active transport (walking, cycling) Increasing percent of population in urban areas Increasing public concern about climate change Uptake of public transport Increasing investment in active transport infrastructure Increasing political concern about climate change Increasing investment in public transport infrastructure Urban form that supports active transport and public… Rising fuel prices Potential for TREND to transform transport system away from BAU within 10 years (1 = low, 5 = high) Top 5 trends most likely to transform the transport system away from BAU in the long term: 1. Rising fuel prices 2. Urban form supporting AT 3. Increasing investment in PT infrastructure 4. Increasing political concern about climate change 5. Increasing investment in active transport infrastructure
  11. 11. TRENDS (III) 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 LikelihoodofTRENDbecomingwidespreadin10years Potential for TREND to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term AF D C B I H E G J K L P T S R N M O Q A - Rising fuel prices B - Increasing percent of population in urban areas C - Increasing public concern about climate change D - Increasing investment in PT infrastructure E - Use of travel substitution technologies F - Aging population G - Decreasing car ownership among youth H - Uptake of PT I - Increasing investment in AT infrastructure J - Uptake of AT K - Decreasing drivers licensing among youth M - Increasing political concern about climate change N - Urban form that supports AT and PT O - Uptake of shared personal transport P - Road congestion Q - Consolidation of ports and freight hubs R - Increasing truck size and carrying capacity S - Rising concern about health implications of transport T - Reducing cost of air transport relative to road LOW likelihood HIGH potential LOW likelihood LOW potential HIGH likelihood HIGH potential HIGH likelihood LOW potential
  12. 12. TRENDS (IV) TOP PRIORITIES FOR INTERVENTION 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 LikelihoodofTRENDbecomingwidespreadin10years Potential for TREND to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term AF D C B I H E G J K L P T S R N M O Q A - Rising fuel prices B - Increasing percent of population in urban areas C - Increasing public concern about climate change D - Increasing investment in PT infrastructure E - Use of travel substitution technologies F - Aging population G - Decreasing car ownership among youth H - Uptake of PT I - Increasing investment in AT infrastructure J - Uptake of AT K - Decreasing drivers licensing among youth M - Increasing political concern about climate change N - Urban form that supports AT and PT O - Uptake of shared personal transport P - Road congestion Q - Consolidation of ports and freight hubs R - Increasing truck size and carrying capacity S - Rising concern about health implications of transport T - Reducing cost of air transport relative to road LOW likelihood HIGH potential LOW likelihood LOW potential HIGH likelihood HIGH potential HIGH likelihood LOW potential
  13. 13. INNOVATIONS
  14. 14. INNOVATIONS (I) 1 2 3 4 5 Large scale biofuel production Autonomously guided vehicles Wireless induction charging for electric vehicles Demand management through road pricing Electric vehicle charging infrastructure Measures that reduce parking availability in city centres Multi-modal, integrated public transport Intelligent transport systems (Vehicle to infrastructure communication, collision… Improvements in battery technologies for electric vehicles Bicycle infrastructure (e.g. protected bike lanes, bike sharing schemes, electric… Real-time driver feedback software (analysing driver behaviour and fuel… Small electrified vehicles (e.g. bikes, scooters, small cars) High quality video conferencing Ultra fast broadband Likelihood of INNOVATION becoming widespread in 10 years (1 = Low, 5 = High) Top 5 innovations most likely to become widespread in the next 10 years: 1. Ultra fast broadband internet 2. High quality video conferencing 3. Small electrified vehicles 4. Real-time driver feedback software 5. Bicycle infrastructure
  15. 15. INNOVATIONS (II) 1 2 3 4 5 Real-time driver feedback software (analysing driver behaviour and fuel… Large scale biofuel production High quality video conferencing Wireless induction charging for electric vehicles Ultra fast broadband Autonomously guided vehicles Electric vehicle charging infrastructure Intelligent transport systems (Vehicle to infrastructure communication,… Small electrified vehicles (e.g. bikes, scooters, small cars) Improvements in battery technologies for electric vehicles Measures that reduce parking availability in city centres Bicycle infrastructure (e.g. protected bike lanes, bike sharing schemes,… Multi-modal, integrated public transport Demand management through road pricing Potential for INNOVATION to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term (1 = Low, 5 = High) Top 5 innovations most likely to transform the transport system away from BAU in the long term: 1. Demand management through road pricing 2. Multi-modal, integrated public transport 3. Bicycle infrastructure 4. Measures to reduce inner city parking 5. Improvements in battery technologies for EVs
  16. 16. INNOVATIONS (III) 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 LikelihoodofINNOVATIONbecomingwidespreadin10years Potential for INNOVATION to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term A B E D C I H G FJ K LM N A - Bicycle infrastructure B - Multi-modal, integrated public transport C - Improvements in battery technologies for electric vehicles D - Small electrified vehicles E - Reduce parking availability in city centres F - Intelligent transport systems G - Demand management through road pricingL - Autonomously guided vehicles M - Wireless induction charging for electric vehicles N - Large scale biofuel production H - Ultra fast broadband I - High quality video conferencing J - Electric vehicle charging infrastructure K - Real-time driver feedback software HIGH likelihood HIGH potential LOW likelihood HIGH potential HIGH likelihood LOW potential LOW likelihood LOW potential
  17. 17. INNOVATIONS (IV) TOP PRIORITIES FOR INTERVENTION A B E D C I H G FJ K LM N A - Bicycle infrastructure B - Multi-modal, integrated public transport C - Improvements in battery technologies for electric vehicles D - Small electrified vehicles E - Reduce parking availability in city centres F - Intelligent transport systems G - Demand management through road pricingL - Autonomously guided vehicles M - Wireless induction charging for electric vehicles N - Large scale biofuel production H - Ultra fast broadband I - High quality video conferencing J - Electric vehicle charging infrastructure K - Real-time driver feedback software HIGH likelihood HIGH potential LOW likelihood HIGH potential HIGH likelihood LOW potential LOW likelihood LOW potential
  18. 18. STEP CHANGES
  19. 19. STEP CHANGES (I) 1 2 3 4 5 Radical societal shift to healthier lifestyles in NZ* Major investment in NZ rail system* Sustainability (e.g. GHG emissions reductions) become a major driver… Decreasing the proportion of transport spend on roads in NZ* Significant global economic decline Catastrophic natural disaster or disease outbreak Substantial increase in cost of air travel (NZ domestic)* Global price on carbon Mass production of low cost electric vehicles Significant breakthrough in cheap battery/ storage technologies Constraints in oil supply Political instability in oil rich countries Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels Likelihood of STEP CHANGE becoming widespread in 10 years (1 = Low, 5 = High) Top 5 step changes most likely to become widespread in the next 10 years: 1. Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels 2. Political instability in oil rich countries 3. Constraints in oil supply 4. Significant breakthrough in cheap battery/ storage technologies 5. Mass production of low cost EVs
  20. 20. STEP CHANGES (II) 1 2 3 4 5 Catastrophic natural disaster or disease outbreak Substantial increase in cost of air travel (NZ domestic)* Radical societal shift to healthier lifestyles in NZ* Mass production of low cost electric vehicles Major investment in NZ rail system* Significant global economic decline Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels Decreasing the proportion of transport spend on roads in NZ* Global price on carbon Significant breakthrough in cheap battery/ storage technologies Political instability in oil rich countries Constraints in oil supply Sustainability (e.g. GHG emissions reductions) become a major driver of… Potential for STEP CHANGE to transform the transport system away from BAU in the long term (1 = Low, 5 = High) Top 5 step changes most likely to transform the transport system away from BAU in the long term: 1. Sustainability becomes a major driver of NZ policy 2. Constraints in oil supply 3. Political instability in oil rich countries 4. Significant breakthrough in cheap battery/ storage technologies 5. Global price on carbon
  21. 21. STEP CHANGES (III) 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 LikelihoodofSTEPCHANGEbecomingwidespreadin10years Potential for STEP CHANGE to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term A B E D C I H G F J K L M A - Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels B - Political instability in oil rich countries C - Constraints in oil supply D - Significant breakthrough in cheap battery / storage technology E - Mass production of low cost electric vehicles F - Sustainability becomes driver of policy in NZ G - Global price on carbon H - Decreasing the proportion of transport spend on roads in NZ I - Significant global economic decline J - Major investment in NZ rail system K - Substantial increase in cost of air travel (NZ domestic) L - Catastrophic natural disaster or disease outbreak M - Radical societal shift to healthier lifestyles HIGH likelihood HIGH potential High likelihood Low potential Low likelihood Low potential Low likelihood High potential
  22. 22. STEP CHANGES (IV) TOP PRIORITIES FOR INTERVENTION 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 LikelihoodofSTEPCHANGEbecomingwidespreadin10years Potential for STEP CHANGE to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term A B E D C I H G F J K L M A - Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels B - Political instability in oil rich countries C - Constraints in oil supply D - Significant breakthrough in cheap battery / storage technology E - Mass production of low cost electric vehicles F - Sustainability becomes driver of policy in NZ G - Global price on carbon H - Decreasing the proportion of transport spend on roads in NZ I - Significant global economic decline J - Major investment in NZ rail system K - Substantial increase in cost of air travel (NZ domestic) L - Catastrophic natural disaster or disease outbreak M - Radical societal shift to healthier lifestyles HIGH likelihood HIGH potential High likelihood Low potential Low likelihood Low potential Low likelihood High potential
  23. 23. TIME FRAMES
  24. 24. TIME FRAMES Item Median time frame Readily available battery technologies enabling a 300km range for personal EVs 5-10 years Inclusion of international aviation in post-Kyoto negotiations on global greenhouse gas emissions 5-10 years A 20% increase in energy efficiency of freight movements in NZ 5-10 years 15% decrease in VKT for the private vehicle fleet in NZ 10-15 years 30% increase in the uptake of PT in NZ 10-15 years Global price on carbon 10-15 years Oil prices average $200/ barrel 10-15 years Fully integrated, mixed modal transport system available in all NZ cities with a population over 100,000 15-20 years EVs make up 20% of NZ’s private vehicle fleet 15-20 years Autonomous vehicles make up 20% of NZ’s private vehicle fleet 20 years +
  25. 25. TIME FRAMES Median – 5-10years 0 5 10 15 20 25 0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years15-20 years Beyond 20 years Never Don't know Numberofrespondents Readily available battery technologies enabling a 300km range for personal electric vehicles 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years 15-20 years Beyond 20 years Never Don't know Numberofrespondents Oil prices average $200/barrel Median – 10-15 years
  26. 26. TIME FRAMES 0 5 10 15 20 25 0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years 15-20 years Beyond 20 years Never Don't know Numberofrespondents Electric vehicles make up 20% of New Zealand's private vehicle fleet 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years 15-20 years Beyond 20 years Never Don't know Numberofrespondents 30% increase in the Uptake of public transport in New Zealand Median – 15-20 years Median – 10-15 years
  27. 27. CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT SYSTEM
  28. 28. CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT SYSTEM High levels of agreement • Integrated multi-modal transport system in urban areas over 100,000 people (96% strongly agree or agree) • Cross-modal ticketing systems ( 92%) • Making the full cost of car ownership evident to the public so that all modes are on a level playing field (82%) • Ensuring rural areas have access to information and communication technologies to support ICT (80%) • Technologies to support modal choice (72%) Lower levels of agreement • Targeted design of transport for the needs of different segments of the population (56% neutral, disagree, or strongly disagree) • Electrifying the entire rail system (40%)
  29. 29. DISCUSSION
  30. 30. THE FUTURE OF NEW ZEALAND'S TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: THE FINDINGS OF A FOUR-STAGE DELPHI SURVEY Debbie Hopkins, Alaric McCarthy, Janet Stephenson Energy Cultures II Project Centre for Sustainability (CSAFE) Debbie.hopkins@otago.ac.nz
  31. 31. MBIE (2014) Energy in New Zealand http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors- industries/energy/energy- modelling/publications/energy-in-new- zealand/Energy-in-New-Zealand-2014.pdf REFERENCES

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