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Confirmation bias

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Some slides about the confirmation bias of our reasoning.

Published in: Science
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Confirmation bias

  1. 1. Reasoning helps the lone reasoner arrive at better beliefs and make better decisions, often through self-scrutiny and correction of mistaken intuitions The classical view of reasoning René Descartes Daniel Kahneman
  2. 2. A bat and a ball cost $1.10. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? a) 0.05€ b) 0.10€ c) Ne peut être déterminé The Bat & Ball Problem
  3. 3. A bat and a ball cost $1.10. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? a) 0.05€ b) 0.10€ c) Ne peut être déterminé The Bat & Ball Problem
  4. 4. A bat and a ball cost $1.10. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? a) 0.05€ b) 0.10€ c) Ne peut être déterminé What reasoning is actually doing Because 1 + 0.10 = $1.10 Because the bat costs $1 so the ball has to be $0.10
  5. 5. Reasoning helps the lone reasoner arrive at better beliefs and make better decisions, often through self-scrutiny and correction of mistaken intuitions The classical view of reasoning
  6. 6. Reasoning can help the lonely reasoner correct mistaken intuitions and arrive at better beliefs But it often doesn’t Because it does precisely the opposite « [The] confirmation bias is perhaps the best known and most widely accepted notion of inferential error to come out of the litterature on human reasoning ». (Evans 198,. p.41)
  7. 7. Is robust and prevalent Is not a cognitive limitation People become skilled falsifiers… when they disagree with someone Is not an emotional problem People have a confirmation bias on abstract problems with no commitment Is specific to reasoning Intuitive mechanisms show no consistent confirmation bias The confirmation bias

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