'Meat'ing future food demands

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TEDxUMN talk on meat consumption and the future of global agriculture.

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'Meat'ing future food demands

  1. 1. Meat‟ing Future Food DemandsEmily Cassidy
  2. 2. Thomas Malthus1766 – 1834
  3. 3. Population Growth is exponential...0123456Billions160,000B.C.100,000B.C.10,000B.C.7,000B.C.6,000B.C.5,000B.C.4,000B.C.3,000B.C.2,000B.C.1,000B.C.1A.D.1,000A.D.2,000A.D.8972,150A.D.2011 – 7 Billion1945 – 2.3 Billion2050 – 9.1 Billion1492 – 500 MillionFirst Modern Humans1776 – 1 BillionSource: TCP
  4. 4. Crop production can‟t keep up...
  5. 5. Malthusian
  6. 6. Global population growth isslowing...
  7. 7. Malthus underestimated...
  8. 8. Norman BorlaugDramatically increased wheat yields
  9. 9. Was Malthus wrong?
  10. 10. Image: NASAGrowing Demandsfor Food
  11. 11. 7 2
  12. 12. 4
  13. 13. Image: NASADiets Matter
  14. 14. 130
  15. 15. 10%
  16. 16. million calories per hectareMillion calories per hectare0 4 821 3 5 76
  17. 17. 1 ton maizefoodfeedbiofuelsCaloriesdelivered topeopleCalories available in food systemCalories “lost”
  18. 18. Fraction of crop calories that become food0 0.5 136% of calories used for animal feed
  19. 19. Fraction of crop calories that become food0 0.5 159% of produced calories become food50% of produced protein become food
  20. 20. 33%of calories go to feedChina
  21. 21. 62%of calories are deliveredChina
  22. 22. 67%of calories go tofeedUnited States
  23. 23. 34%of calories aredeliveredUnited States
  24. 24. 5.98.45.4 66.513.51610People fed per hectareassuming 2,700 kcal per day
  25. 25. Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2009PoundspercapitaSource: FAO
  26. 26. ~10 people per hectarePossible people fed per hectare0 2 4 6 8 10~10 billion people
  27. 27. Actual Food Supply~6 people per hectare~6 billion peopleActual people fed per hectare0 2 4 6 8 10
  28. 28. Where do we go from here?
  29. 29. 1992 2008image:s: NASA
  30. 30. Ray et al., 2012MAIZE - yield trendsYields increasingStagnating
  31. 31. Ray et al., 2012RICE - yield trendsYields increasingStagnating
  32. 32. 1 billion 2 billion
  33. 33. Thomas Malthus
  34. 34. What can do aboutthis?
  35. 35. Increase Calories Available by 70%Million calories per hectare0 1 2 3 4+
  36. 36. million people
  37. 37. Image: NASADiets Matter
  38. 38. Image: NASAThanks!

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