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A Futurist Perspective on Risk Emergent Futures, Level 27, 101 Collins St, Melbourne, Vic 3000, Ph 039 018 7917, Fax 039 0...
Definitions How to Pick a Futurist   Identify the Problems Avoid the Problems
“ Information is becoming ubiquitous and instantaneous. So what is ‘known’ is becoming a diminishing source of competitive...
The Definitions
From: Garnaut Climate Change Review Draft Report June 2008
From: Owning the Right Risks by Kevin Buehler, Andrew Freeman and Ron Hulme. Harvard Business Review September 08
Foresight Capacity The capacity to think about the future and apply that thinking to strategy
Action without vision is a nightmare but vision without action is daydreaming
The Problems
YOU
Source: How Brains Make Up Their Minds by Walter J Freeman Rational Versus Emotional
 
Brain Energy Drinks
No-one can predict the future
“ Prediction is used by managers who don’t want to spend their time on thinking about uncertainty”   http://subbaraman.wor...
Forecasting
Humans are marginally better than chimps at forecasting Philip E Tetlock – Expert Political Judgement - 2005
The Australian 28 th  May 2008
There is a reason for this!!
 
6 64
45 3.5 trillion
There are other reasons for this!!!
Pattern Entrainment
Brain is hard wired
The Halo Effect www.surrealart.com/html/___suits.htm
 
Assessment by John Kay of Hamel and Prahalad’s Competing for the Future portfolio   http://www.johnkay.com/strategy/437   ...
 
Pre-Hypothesis Convergence http://lifehacker.com/software/digital-photography/enhance-your-photography-with-converging-lin...
Trend Faith
 
HOW  you think is more important than  WHAT  you think!!!
Avoiding The Problems
So how do you avoid the problems?   First admit you have a problem
Get multiple perspectives Be critical of forecasts Keep experts in their place Abstract data and stories Use methods to av...
Five Basic Approaches
Complexity approaches to Strategy
Bring in Different Perspectives
Scenarios
YOU
Sensing Emergent Patterns Through Narrative Inquiry
Exploit other people’s mis- conceptions of risk
Some Advice
So to the two tests of a competent futurist
They are right more than just chance would allow
They can tell you a coherent, logically consistent and cogent story
Thank you Emergent Futures, Level 27, 101 Collins St, Melbourne, Vic 3000, Ph 039 018 7917, Fax 039 012 3580, http//:www.e...
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RMIA Presentation November 19 2008 A Futurist Perspective On Risk By Paul Higgins

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This was a presentation to the Risk Management Industry Association Conference in Perth on how to look a risks from a foresight perspective

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RMIA Presentation November 19 2008 A Futurist Perspective On Risk By Paul Higgins

  1. 1. A Futurist Perspective on Risk Emergent Futures, Level 27, 101 Collins St, Melbourne, Vic 3000, Ph 039 018 7917, Fax 039 012 3580, http//:www.emergentfutures.com RMIA Conference November 2008
  2. 2. Definitions How to Pick a Futurist Identify the Problems Avoid the Problems
  3. 3. “ Information is becoming ubiquitous and instantaneous. So what is ‘known’ is becoming a diminishing source of competitive advantage, and therefore successful futures will increasingly be forged through mastery of the unknown.” Eamon Kelly CEO Global Business Network Financial Times of London March 17, 2006
  4. 4. The Definitions
  5. 5. From: Garnaut Climate Change Review Draft Report June 2008
  6. 6. From: Owning the Right Risks by Kevin Buehler, Andrew Freeman and Ron Hulme. Harvard Business Review September 08
  7. 7. Foresight Capacity The capacity to think about the future and apply that thinking to strategy
  8. 8. Action without vision is a nightmare but vision without action is daydreaming
  9. 9. The Problems
  10. 10. YOU
  11. 11. Source: How Brains Make Up Their Minds by Walter J Freeman Rational Versus Emotional
  12. 13. Brain Energy Drinks
  13. 14. No-one can predict the future
  14. 15. “ Prediction is used by managers who don’t want to spend their time on thinking about uncertainty” http://subbaraman.wordpress.com/2008/02/20/art-of-foresight/
  15. 16. Forecasting
  16. 17. Humans are marginally better than chimps at forecasting Philip E Tetlock – Expert Political Judgement - 2005
  17. 18. The Australian 28 th May 2008
  18. 19. There is a reason for this!!
  19. 21. 6 64
  20. 22. 45 3.5 trillion
  21. 23. There are other reasons for this!!!
  22. 24. Pattern Entrainment
  23. 25. Brain is hard wired
  24. 26. The Halo Effect www.surrealart.com/html/___suits.htm
  25. 28. Assessment by John Kay of Hamel and Prahalad’s Competing for the Future portfolio http://www.johnkay.com/strategy/437 Prediction – a dangerous business
  26. 30. Pre-Hypothesis Convergence http://lifehacker.com/software/digital-photography/enhance-your-photography-with-converging-lines-237435.php
  27. 31. Trend Faith
  28. 33. HOW you think is more important than WHAT you think!!!
  29. 34. Avoiding The Problems
  30. 35. So how do you avoid the problems? First admit you have a problem
  31. 36. Get multiple perspectives Be critical of forecasts Keep experts in their place Abstract data and stories Use methods to avoid early convergence Question Question Question
  32. 37. Five Basic Approaches
  33. 38. Complexity approaches to Strategy
  34. 39. Bring in Different Perspectives
  35. 40. Scenarios
  36. 41. YOU
  37. 42. Sensing Emergent Patterns Through Narrative Inquiry
  38. 43. Exploit other people’s mis- conceptions of risk
  39. 44. Some Advice
  40. 45. So to the two tests of a competent futurist
  41. 46. They are right more than just chance would allow
  42. 47. They can tell you a coherent, logically consistent and cogent story
  43. 48. Thank you Emergent Futures, Level 27, 101 Collins St, Melbourne, Vic 3000, Ph 039 018 7917, Fax 039 012 3580, http//:www.emergentfutures.com [email_address]

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