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WHAT SHOULD THE GOVERNOR DO ABOUT JOBS Sherwin keynote at 2010 Game Changers Conference

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Keynote presentation at the 2010 California Game Changers Conference

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WHAT SHOULD THE GOVERNOR DO ABOUT JOBS Sherwin keynote at 2010 Game Changers Conference

  1. 1. Cleantech, Climate, and Jobs What Should the Governor Do? California GAMEchangers Conference Elton B. Sherwin November 17, 2010
  2. 2. Immediate Problem  12% Unemployment  Construction-related trades much higher  2.3 million unemployed
  3. 3. Longer Term  Very serious problem climate change  Multiple impacts on California and California businesses
  4. 4. Aim Today Convince You That Solution Is Standing In Front Of Us  Building efficiency  Existing buildings  Create jobs  Create investment  Protect planet  Grading buildings  A+ to F
  5. 5. SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002. Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/planning/climate_change/climate_change.shtml 16 Inches of Sea Rise San Jose San Francisco Vallejo San Rafael Oakland
  6. 6. SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002. Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov Foster City East Palo AltoMenlo Park 16 Inches of Sea Rise Silicon Valley
  7. 7. SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002. Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov Moffett Field 237 Sun, Google, and, Cisco all at risk
  8. 8. SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002. Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov Vallejo North Bay 16 Inches of Sea Rise
  9. 9. SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002. Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov Richmond North Bay 16 Inches of Sea Rise San Rafael Larkspur Corte Madera
  10. 10. July Temperatures 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation California’s agricultural regions will be hard hit
  11. 11. Midcentury Increase of 5 Degrees Fahrenheit 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation 5+
  12. 12. Could See Increases of 10 to 14 Degree Fahrenheit in Central Valley* 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy *“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California” Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS 10+
  13. 13. Smaller snowpack More water shortages Less water for agriculture “Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California” Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS
  14. 14. Heat Waves in Los Angeles Basin Will Be Much More Frequent Dan Steinberg, Associated Press
  15. 15. So What Should the Governor Do?
  16. 16. Letter to Fictional Governor  Makes 55 recommendations
  17. 17. Only Five Involve Taxes or Fees 1. DMV fees proportional to oil imports  Gas guzzlers have higher DMV fees 2. Carbon tax on inefficient light bulbs 3. 10¢ bottle tax 4. Congestion pricing on all freeways 5. Mandatory Energy Savings Account for inefficient buildings Blue State Recommendations
  18. 18. Fifty With No Fees or Taxes  Pool pumps  Window films  Motor controls  Smart lighting  Building tune ups  Thermal storage on air conditioners  Green building code recommendations  Research priorities  Nighttime electric rates Pay for themselves Not being done
  19. 19. Focus on Buildings
  20. 20. Why Buildings America has:  Over 50 million inefficient buildings  Upgrades pay for themselves  Millions of out-of-work construction workers
  21. 21. Buildings are the Largest Source of CO2 in America More than all cars, trucks and planes added together
  22. 22. Building energy consumption is almost 40% of U.S. CO2 emissions* *Mitigating Climate Change: What America’s Building Industry Must Do Mahadev Raman. Using DOE data
  23. 23. Create Jobs by Improving Building Efficiency
  24. 24. Need to Improve Existing Buildings  Retail  Commercial  Schools  Government  Residential
  25. 25. It is Not Happening
  26. 26. Unable to Connect the Dots  Over 50 million buildings that need upgrades  Upgrades pay for themselves in reduced utility bills  Millions of unemployed construction workers  Reduced utility bills would pay their salaries
  27. 27. 70% to 80% Energy Used in Buildings Is Wasted  German Passive House uses 1/7 the energy of US code  Why cannot America do this?
  28. 28. Recommendation: Grade Our Buildings A-
  29. 29. 55 Recommendations Two most important  Reduce air pollution  Soot, methane, ozone, carbon monoxide, etc.  Grade buildings
  30. 30. Analyzed 12 Different Building Energy Labels and Their Associated Rating Methodologies
  31. 31. Recommended Label In Monthly Utility Bill C- B+ Electricity** Gas** *125 is highest score 1 is lowest Compared to all federal buildings in America (See Inverted Scale with Progressive Weighting) ** The energy grade is determined comparing this building to other similar buildings in similar climates 74 * Image from iStockphoto
  32. 32. Peer Rating • Similar building types – Office to office – Hospital to hospital • In similar climates • Top 20% get As A+ reserved for net zero • Bottom 20% get Fs • Include + and – • Get the best of either per sq. ft. or per person
  33. 33. National Rating • National standard – Intuitive: scores above 80 are good, below 70 are poor • 125 minus weighted EUI • Source energy (per sq ft.) – Combines natural gas, oil and electricity – All electricity weighted at national average
  34. 34. What Would Happen?  Put a grade in monthly utility bill  Mail window sticker quarterly  Optional for the building owner to display
  35. 35. What Would Happen?  Hotels with As get more business  Hotels with Ds would upgrade  Energy efficiency would be important  Some businesses and employees would hunt down their energy hogs
  36. 36. What Would Happen?  Best energy auditors become very popular  Backlog of work upgrading:  Lighting systems  Windows  Cooling towers  Insulation  Fans, pumps, and motor controls  Building controls, VAV boxes, etc.
  37. 37. What Would Happen?  Millions of new jobs  Skills would improve  Burn less coal and natural gas  Send less money out-of-state to buy hydrocarbons  Spend more money locally  Efficient products outsell inefficient products
  38. 38. Why This Label  Grades motivate change  + and - reward small improvements  Does not require audits  Universal participation  Automatic monthly updates  Fair: works for all sizes of buildings  Drive dramatic reductions in energy consumption
  39. 39. Need better Labels on Products Also
  40. 40. Need More Information On-line www.energyrating.gov.au 1 Brand Refrigerators- Freezers Model Total Volume (litres) Energy Consumption (kWh/annum) 10 Yr Energy Cost Star Rating DAEWOO FRN-U20__I 603 515 $875 ***** WHIRLPOOL 6E_2__XR_ 640 614 $1,043 ***** SAMSUNG SRS767DGB 768 731 $1,242 **** GENERAL ELECTRIC PCG25 GSG25MIP__ 761 729 $1,239 **** 1 There is much to like about the Australian government’s site, foremost is showing the ten-year cost of Also
  41. 41. Utility Bills are the Single Best Yardstick  Ensure green buildings disclose utility bills  Start grading buildings based on ACTUAL ENERGY USE
  42. 42. Summary Recommendations 1. Grade buildings: A+ to F  Optional quarterly window stickers 2. Disclose energy consumption of all buildings claiming to be green  Include all government buildings and builders requesting variances  Identify the architect
  43. 43. In Closing Building grades will motivate action: 1. Create private investment 2. Create jobs 3. Improve skills 4. Encourage innovation 5. Reduce emissions A+ For more information: www.EltonSherwin.com Information on building grades: http://www.slideshare.net/EltonSherwin/presentations Specifically two presentations: http://tinyurl.com/34dp6qx and http://tinyurl.com/34vrhl6
  44. 44. Appendix
  45. 45. World- wide Next 20 Years (Soot) Soot and Smoke Also Damage Our Environment
  46. 46. McKinsey
  47. 47. Pay for Themselves “Negative” Costs
  48. 48. Real Costs
  49. 49. Coal
  50. 50. Savings “Pay” for Most Non-coal Upgrades =
  51. 51. Pay for Themselves “Negative” Costs Building-Related:  Residential lighting  Residential electronics  Commercial insulation  Motor systems  Residential appliances  Water heaters  Air conditioning  Building “tune-ups”  HVAC zoning  Fan/pump controls Non-Building:  Standby power  Industrial efficiency  Hybrid cars  Landfill methane  Waste recycling  Agriculture nutrient management  Agriculture tillage/residue McKinsey, DOE, UK Gov. Author’s experience
  52. 52. Real Costs Less Expensive Capturing CO2 From Coal-fired Power Agriculture-Related:  Cropland management  Grassland management  Soil restoration  Protecting rainforests  Pastureland afforestation  Reforestation  Manure management  Feedstock substitution  Fertilizer management Non-Agriculture:  Ultra-efficient new buildings  Plug-in Hybrids  Concentrating solar  Solar PV  Wind McKinsey, DOE, UK Gov. Author’s experience
  53. 53. Questions  More Information: www.EltonSherwin.com eltonsherwin.wordpress.com facebook.com/EltonSherwin
  54. 54. McKinsey 2007
  55. 55. Sector Specific Abatement Cost Curves Agriculture in the UK The First Report of the UK Committee on Climate Change December 2008
  56. 56. US DOE. CO2 in America. Excludes other greenhouse pollutants: methane, Soot, CFCs, etc. Also excludes embedded energy in imports and most impacts from Agriculture. CO2 Emissions: Circled sources are mostly buildings
  57. 57. Which Building Types Use the Most Energy Overall?
  58. 58. Which Building use the Most Energy per Square Foot?
  59. 59. Electricity Consumption in Healthcare Buildings
  60. 60. Checklists www.EltonSherwin.com  What Can Cities and Counties Do?  Simple Green Building Code  Homes  Commercial Property  What are Your Company’s Top Energy Wasters?  Schools and public buildings  What are Your Home’s Top Energy Wasters?  How Do I Find the Energy Hogs in My House?  Reducing Your Carbon Footprint www.Amazon.com
  61. 61. Encourage the Disclosure of Building Energy Consumption Cities have leverage:  Requesting permit  Requesting variance  Bidding for city business  Selling building  Challenge other city governments  Prohibit “green” or efficiency claims without disclosure  Give window stickers to all homes and businesses who disclose their data Cities can encourage disclosure • Last 2 yrs utility bills • Next 10 yrs
  62. 62. Use Signage Laws to Ban Advertising Without Disclosure Energy Saving Green Home (Data not disclosed) Require • Last 2 yrs utility bills • Next 10 yrs
  63. 63. Why Grades Based on Energy? Energy => CO2 => Environmental Damage Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK) Awards based on anything other than actual energy consumption are not helpful.
  64. 64. http://www.slideshare.net/EltonSherwin/presentations http://tinyurl.com/34dp6qx and http://tinyurl.com/34vrhl6 Also, see Response to the National Energy Rating Program for Homes Request for Information

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