2011 expo-post fossil-fuel

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Preparing for the Post-Fossil Fuel Economy
A presentation by Jay Warmke of Blue Rock Station
Presented at Columbus Green Building Forum's 2011 Green Building EXPO

Published in: Technology, News & Politics
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2011 expo-post fossil-fuel

  1. 1. Preparing for the Post- Fossil Fuel Economy Jay Warmke Blue Rock Station © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  2. 2. Columbus Green Building Forum This program is a registered educational program with the Columbus Green Building Forum and AIA/CES . The content within the program is not created or endorsed by the Columbus Green Building Forum and AIA/CES nor should the content be construed as an approval of any product, building method, or service. Information on the specific content can be addressed at the conclusion on the program, by the Registered Provider. Credit earned for completing this program will automatically be submitted to the Columbus Green Building Forum. Completion certificates can be obtained by contacting the Provider directly.© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  3. 3. Learning Objectives: 1. Participants will learn how the evolution of fuel over the past century has led to building practices as well as how cities and society has organized itself. 2. Participants will be exposed to how these fuel systems (for heating/cooling, electrical, and transportation) will change dramatically over the coming decades. 3. Participants will also learn how traditional raw materials used for construction will dramatically increase in cost, if available at all - and what alternatives may arise. 4. We will explore how these changes may dramatically impact how buildings are constructed, as well as how society will organize itself (cities, suburbs, green areas, etc).© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  4. 4. What is Blue Rock Station? © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  5. 5. What is Blue Rock Station? © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  6. 6. What is Blue Rock Station? © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  7. 7. What is Blue Rock Station? “Pollution is nothing but the resources we are not harvesting. We allow them to disperse because weve been ignorant of their value.” - R. Buckminster Fuller © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  8. 8. The Year is 1911World population, 1.7 billion40,000 Model Ts produced, double from 1910 © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  9. 9. The Year is 2011 EVERYTHING is about to change AGAIN... we are entering the post-petroleum economy© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  10. 10. The GaiaStatic Century? Leave her like you found her.© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  11. 11. What are we assuming? In the future, there will be more people on the planet © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  12. 12. The bottom line... But w hat about Me?© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  13. 13. 8 New “Americas”© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  14. 14. The Numbers are SO Huge For Example: US uses 3,741,485,000 MW-h per y Give everyone a 60 W light bulb and let them use them for 8 hours per day... Add 1,576,800,000 MW-h per y or about 42% of the annual US use © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  15. 15. What are we assuming? In the future, there will be more people on the planet Things that we use - that cannot be replaced - will eventually begin to run out © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  16. 16. So, how did we get here?19741956 © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  17. 17. In One Generation... 1933© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  18. 18. © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  19. 19. What are we assuming? In the future, there will be more people on the planet Things that we use - that cannot be replaced - will eventually begin to run out When more people want a limited something, it will cost more. © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  20. 20. It is not about running out! • 4% production drop will result in 177% increase in cost • Estimate 3-10% drop each year “There will be an average of two-percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.” - VP Dick Cheney © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  21. 21. Wonderful world of compounding... Even at half that rate... • 2010 $3.00 per gallon • 2011 x 139% = $4.17 • 2012 x 139% = $5.80 • 2013 x 139% = $8.06 • 2014 x 139% = $11.20 • 2015 x 139% = $15.57 © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  22. 22. What are we assuming? In the future, there will be more people on the planet Things that we use - that cannot be replaced - will eventually begin to run out When more people want a limited something, it will cost more. It’s gonna get worse before it gets better © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  23. 23. The Oil Economy The energy contained in One Barrel of oil contains the equivalent of 25,000 human hours of labor (12 people working 40 hrs per week) Currently 1 barrel = $100 25,000 hrs x $8 = $200,000© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  24. 24. 2006 © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  25. 25. The Electrical Grid Worldwide demandwill double over next 40 years © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  26. 26. So where is it coming from? © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  27. 27. Coal?2.5%60 years © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  28. 28. Nuclear? 1977 Build one brand new billion-watt nuclear power plant every 1.6 days until the year 2050, they will generate only about 8 terawatts.© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  29. 29. Natural Gas?© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  30. 30. © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  31. 31. Peak Oil!© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  32. 32. So, whats Next? "The Americans will always do the Right Thing…after they have exhausted all the Alternatives." - Winston Churchill© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  33. 33. Green Technology  Solar  Wind  BioMass  Hydro  Ocean Power  Hydrogen© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  34. 34. © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  35. 35. Wind? • Currently only 2.3% of electricity in US • 20% by 2030 • Capacity has grown 50% each year© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  36. 36. Wind? • 2010 study shows potential of 37 petawatts annually – 9 times the current electrical consumption© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  37. 37. Solar Power? 2010, installed PV doubled  Costs dropped 30% © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  38. 38. © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  39. 39. Solar Power? US Solar Doubled again in 2011  69% of US electricity from solar by 2050  From Scientific American © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  40. 40. So where WILL it come from? ien cies Effic a tion serv Con Fossil Fuels Renewables lec tric e Hy dro © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  41. 41. What if we cut Energy in Half? © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  42. 42. Green Technology Cost of Fossil Fuels 2007 Utility-Scale Wind Cost of Renewable Energy© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  43. 43. Green Technology Cost of Fossil Fuels 2015 Residential Solar Cost of Renewable Energy© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  44. 44. Green Technology Moores Jays Law Cost of Renewable Energy cut in half every 4 years© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  45. 45. Energy is NOT the Problem © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  46. 46. Energy is NOT the Problem It (the Sun) provides enough energy in one minute to supply the worlds energy needs for one year. In one day, it provides more energy than our current population would consume in 27 years. In fact, "The amount of solar radiation striking the earth over a three-day period is equivalent to the energy stored in all fossil energy sources." - NASA © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  47. 47. Ask Yourself... What will the world look like when energy is free, and everything else is very very expensive?© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  48. 48. How will it affect... Transportation? City Structures? Buildings? The Economy?© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  49. 49. Who am I talking about... The Rich? Middle Class? The Poor? © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  50. 50. Downwardly Mobile... as globalization begins to level the playing field.© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  51. 51. Transportation – Short Term Transition to electric – so all buildings require integration of vehicles as load as well as storage devices © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  52. 52. What about Systems Smart Grid creating peer-to- peer energy systems. AC or DC or Wireless? Independent versus municipal systems ($3.5 million for sewers for 200 homes?)© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  53. 53. Power Integrated into Everything © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  54. 54. Transportation – Long Term Ruralification of City Centers? – City clusters for social interaction and resource conservation – Rural give up access for space. Will virtual packaging change this? © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  55. 55. So What is Virtual Packaging? Already exists on Internet – Amazon.com or I-tunes – Is local inventory required? – Virtual Main Street – Cooperative delivery So how does this change the design of retail/commercial? © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  56. 56. What about Virtual Housing?When CGI is cheaper than real... what then? We live in “fake homes” now, why not take the plunge? © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  57. 57. Communal HousingIndependent dwellings contain only what we need, all other “activity rooms” shared. – Result, larger livable space, smaller units per person » Entertainment Room » Kitchen » Dining Room » Bedroom » Bathroom » Foyer » Study © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  58. 58. Building Materials He who has the most garbage, wins (cradle to cradle). Balance energy efficiency with material costs.© 2011, Blue Rock Station
  59. 59. WaterAccess to water will determine where you live. – Is Chicago the next great city? © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  60. 60. The GaiaStatic CenturyPack out what you Pack in... “May you live in Interesting Times” » Chinese Curse © 2011, Blue Rock Station
  61. 61. There will be problems... © 2011, Blue Rock Station

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