Financial Plan Business Plan Preparation

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  • Step 5 says Timeline, Switch with Step 6
  • Step 5 says Timeline, Switch with Step 6
  • Step 5 says Timeline, Switch with Step 6
  • airlines, toothpaste (Tom’s of Maine) ; government
  • Smoke: virus- reason disappears Trees: get caught in the detail Sales time to get orders need to revise product or service Hi growth effects
  • Development Rapid prototyping Flexible Product Development Growth: requires investment in systems Funding: on-going process day you close one round is the day you start the next Full time Find investors Negotiate Term Sheet Due diligence Sign agreement
  • Questions Why does GP increase from 45% to 52% in yr 2? If we reduce the investment in year 3 from $3KK to $1KK? OR, increase from $3KK to $5KK? Optimism vs Pessimism Investors VC's want size Angels want to be involved & a return Friends and Family want you to succeed Hostage to fortune VIDEO show
  • Financial Plan Business Plan Preparation

    1. 1. Business Plan Preparation Financial Plan Frank Moyes Leeds School of Business University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado 0
    2. 2. Tonight <ul><li>Plan presentation examples </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Plan </li></ul><ul><li>In the Fire – Customer Surveys </li></ul><ul><li>Hand-in: prelim customer surveys </li></ul><ul><li>Team meetings </li></ul>
    3. 3. Next Week <ul><li>Management Plan </li></ul><ul><li>In the Fire - Marketing plan </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Prepare 6 slides </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10 minutes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4 entrepreneurs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Amber Hickory, Greenhouse Partners </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Katarina Brown, Brand Juice </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Scott Heinemann, Aweida </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>David Parkhurst, Alpine Access </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Hand-in: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Marketing Plan - draft </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customer surveys & summary of results </li></ul></ul>
    4. 4. Marketing Plan Outline <ul><li>Customer Research </li></ul><ul><li>Target Market Strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Channel Strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Positioning </li></ul><ul><li>Product/Service Strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Pricing Strategy </li></ul><ul><li>E-commerce </li></ul><ul><li>Communications Strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Sales Strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Revenue Model </li></ul>
    5. 5. Financial Plan <ul><li>Financial Projections </li></ul><ul><li>Key Assumptions </li></ul><ul><li>Business Risks </li></ul>
    6. 6. Business Plan Perspective “ People write-up their business plan with a top-down mentality. They invariably talk about a particular vertical market that has X billions of dollars in sales each year. They’ll tell us that they can get 10% of that market. But when we ask them for the average sale or the cost of customer acquisition, the answer almost always is “I’ll get back to you.” Dan Beldy, Hummer Winblad Venture Partners
    7. 7. Approach <ul><li>Download v6.8.6 </li></ul><ul><li>Learn color codes </li></ul><ul><li>Notes </li></ul><ul><li>Play with example </li></ul><ul><li>Before start, erase all green data </li></ul><ul><li>Don’t mess with the Purple </li></ul>
    8. 8. Financial Projections <ul><li>Income Statement </li></ul><ul><ul><li>By years for 5 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>By months for years 1-2 & by quarters for years 3-5 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Balance Sheet by years for 5 years </li></ul><ul><li>Cash Flow </li></ul><ul><ul><li>By years for 5 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>By months for years 1-2 and by quarters for years 3-5 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Break-even Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Comps </li></ul>
    9. 9. Architecture <ul><li>Outputs </li></ul><ul><li>Inputs </li></ul><ul><li>Funding & Valuation </li></ul>
    10. 10. Architecture - Outputs <ul><li>5-year Income Statement </li></ul><ul><li>5-year Balance Sheet </li></ul><ul><li>5 year Cash Flow </li></ul><ul><li>Break-even Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Income Statement by months & quarters </li></ul><ul><li>Cash Flow by months & quarters </li></ul><ul><li>Summary </li></ul><ul><li>Valuation </li></ul>
    11. 11. Architecture - Inputs <ul><li>Revenue Model </li></ul><ul><li>Cost of Revenue </li></ul><ul><li>Operating Expenses </li></ul><ul><li>Personnel </li></ul><ul><li>Extraordinary </li></ul><ul><li>Taxes </li></ul><ul><li>Property & Equipment </li></ul><ul><li>Working Capital </li></ul><ul><li>Funding </li></ul>
    12. 12. Architecture – Funding & Valuation <ul><li>Look at Cash Flow to determine funding requirements </li></ul><ul><li>Decide how you will fund </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Equity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>What % of company will you offer? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Valuation approaches – will cover week 13 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Debt – what are the repayment terms & interest </li></ul></ul>
    13. 13. Financial Assumptions <ul><li>Describe assumptions critical to success of your business </li></ul><ul><li>Drivers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Revenue model, e.g. prices, market share, new products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost projections, e.g. sourcing agreement, process development </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Capital Expenditures </li></ul><ul><li>Working Capital </li></ul><ul><li>Funding? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Do not be resource constrained at the beginning </li></ul></ul>
    14. 14. Suggested Approach <ul><li>Top down vs. bottoms up </li></ul><ul><li>Keep record of key assumptions </li></ul><ul><li>COMP’s provide reality check </li></ul><ul><li>Revenue projections by months & quarters is key. DETERMINES: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost of Revenue </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Operating Expenses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Working Capital </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Monthly & Quarterly projections </li></ul></ul>
    15. 15. 0
    16. 16. Issues <ul><li>Profitability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gross margins </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Operating expenses </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Assets & Liabilities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Working Capital </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fixed Assets & Capital Expenditures </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Seasonality </li></ul><ul><li>Growth </li></ul>
    17. 17. Powerful Tool <ul><li>Upfront effort </li></ul><ul><li>What if? questions </li></ul><ul><li>Sensitivity analysis </li></ul><ul><li>How tell if projections make sense? </li></ul>0
    18. 18. Risks I <ul><li>What major risks does the venture face? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What can go wrong? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What must go right </li></ul></ul><ul><li>How mitigate? </li></ul>
    19. 19. Risks II <ul><li>Market </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Size of market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Competitor’s response </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sales cycle </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Closing window (12 VC funded companies) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Strategic - establishing strategic partnerships </li></ul><ul><li>Operational - large number of interrelated components </li></ul>
    20. 20. Risks III <ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Will it work </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Time and cost to development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scalability </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Financial </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk/return </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dilution </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Macro-economic </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Volatile industry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Government approval </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Exchange rates </li></ul></ul>
    21. 21. Financial Plan <ul><li>Financial Projections </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Summary goes in Plan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>All Financial Statements go in Appendix </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Assumptions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>~5 key assumptions go in Plan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Detailed assumptions go in Appendix </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Business Risks </li></ul>
    22. 22. 0 Summary of Financial Projections
    23. 23. Critical Mistakes I <ul><li>“Let’s go smoke something” </li></ul><ul><li>“These trees sure are pretty” </li></ul><ul><li>“We can get orders in a month” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sales cycle </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No one knows you </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ We can whip this puppy out in 6 months” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Development time-line longer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More expensive </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“Look at how much they spend on marketing! We won’t have to spend that much” </li></ul>
    24. 24. <ul><li>“Sure, operating expenses are high at the beginning, but then they will go down.” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Operating expenses don’t decline </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Salaries must be realistic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Growth requires spending money </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ This equipment should last us for years.” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Assets must be replaced </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“We’ll lean on our suppliers and not pay them for 90 days.” </li></ul><ul><li>“Our customer will pay us in 30 days.” </li></ul>Critical Mistakes II
    25. 25. Financial Dynamics <ul><li>Who does the financial projections? </li></ul><ul><li>Should my projections be optimistic or pessimistic? </li></ul><ul><li>Investor questions </li></ul>0
    26. 26. Business Plan Perspective “ Entrepreneurs have got to display a clearly articulated vision for what they want to do. And they must tell their story from the bottom up. A bottom-up approach means that they know with absolute certainty whom they’ll sell to, how much it will cost, and what the sales per week will be next March. Sure, a lot of assumptions are involved, but entrepreneurs need to break their business down to the molecular level. That information leads logically to the next step which is saying to an investor, ‘I am going to take this money and do X, Y, and Z with it and here’s what will happen in the end.’ Your survival depends on knowing that stuff cold.” Dan Beldy, Hummer Winblad Venture Partners 0

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