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Jack Vowles presentation

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Jack Vowles presentation

  1. 1. VOTER PARTICIPATION IN NEW ZEALAND WHAT DO WE KNOW? Prof Jack Vowles, Victoria University of Wellington Wellington, New Zealand
  2. 2. Voter Participation in New Zealand: What Do We Know? Jack Vowles Political Science and International Relations Victoria University of Wellington Presentation to the Valuing Our Vote Conference, Wellington, May 29 2014
  3. 3. Where We’re At y = -0.2545x + 584.02 R² = 0.7916 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Switzerland (PR) United States (PL) Canada (PL) Luxembourg(PR) Japan (M) United Kingdom (PL) Ireland (PR) Germany (PR) Finland (PR) Italy (M) Austria (PR) New Zealand (PR) Netherlands (PR) France (M) Israel (PR) Norway (PR) Australia (M, C) Iceland (PR) Denmark (PR) Sweden (PR) Belgium (PR, C) VAP turnout, ‘old’ OECD VAP turnout, New Zealand
  4. 4. Age and Turnout 1996-2011 (% of roll) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 18-30 30 plus
  5. 5. Age and Turnout 1996-2011 (% age-eligible) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 18-29 30 up
  6. 6. What Else? -0.12 -0.24 -0.08 0.12 0.05 -0.07 0.07 Maori Electorate** Asian** Manual Household* Wealth Index Maximum-Minimum** Urban Location Reference: Non-degree qualification Left School at 15 University Degree Source: 2011 NZES
  7. 7. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Actual Actual and Predicted Turnout Change
  8. 8. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Actual Linear (Actual) Actual and Predicted Turnout Change
  9. 9. Actual and Predicted Turnout Change -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Actual Predict Linear (Actual) Changes in - National-Labour country-wide vote gap present and past elections Left-Right policy differences, National-Labour % of new voters at current election
  10. 10. Is Lower Two-party Competition a Trend? R² = 0.0842 0 5 10 15 20 25 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 National-Labour Gap, 1946-2011
  11. 11. Age Cohort Differences 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Probability of Vote Began Voting <1996 Began Voting > 1996
  12. 12. Age Cohort Differences -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 <1955 1955-65 1966-72 1972-82 1983-92 1993- Probability of voting compared to cohorts entering voting before 1955 Began Voting -
  13. 13. What About the Maori Electorates? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Maori electorates Official Turnout
  14. 14. Effects of Political Knowledge Source: NZES 2011. Controls for social and demographic and other variables 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Low Knowledge (0) High Knowledge (4) Probability of Vote
  15. 15. Attitudes/Perceptions (2011 NZES) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Didn't Manage to Vote Chose not to Vote Those Not Voting, 2011 NZES 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Not Any Difference A Big Difference Voting Makes a Difference to What Happens 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 My Vote Doesn't Count My Vote Counts Vote Counts in Elections
  16. 16. Effects of Attitudes/Perceptions on Turnout (2011 NZES) 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 Not Any Difference A Big Difference Probabilit y of Vote Voting Makes a Difference 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 My Vote Doesn't Count My Vote Counts Probabilit y of Vote Vote Counts
  17. 17. What Do We Know Internationally? • Voting is a social act • Being embedded in social networks encourages/reinforces behaviour • ‘Late Maturity’ may explain increased youth nonvoting • Mobilisation works, but needs resources. • There is debate about whether ‘habit’ or ‘norms and values’ can be said to best account for the generational differences
  18. 18. How can decline be reversed? The temporary turnaround, 1975-1984 – revival of party memberships – mobilisation of a new generation of voters, party members, and leaders – new issue dimensions entered politics – Highly competitive elections – Polarised politics and divisive leadership
  19. 19. Voter Participation in New Zealand: What Do We Know? Jack Vowles Political Science and International Relations Victoria University of Wellington Presentation to the Valuing Our Vote Conference, Wellington, May 29 2014

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