FUTURE perspective #1 trends newsletter


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FUTURE Perspective is a quarterly newsletter written by Elaine Cameron, head of Strategic Research & Trend Analysis at Burson-Marsteller EMEA. The newsletter focuses on trends that have concrete communication takeouts.

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FUTURE perspective #1 trends newsletter

  1. 1. August 2009
  2. 2. CONSUMER/TECH: COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT ➔ The European Union's Emergence Project found that by 2010, 27 million Europeans will work from home at least part Virtual Tourism of their work week, with employees in the United Kingdom leading the trend. The number of jobs filled by telecommuters Is Virtual Tourism the way of the future or is Home could grow nearly fourfold to 19 million by 2012. set to be the new Abroad? Insurance/Legal Issues ➔ Annually over 700 million people engage in international travel. Tourism’s contribution to national economies goes ➔ Companies will need increasingly sophisticated insurance, way beyond foreign exchange earnings and revenue from healthcare and legal liability policies to deal with an absent taxes and employment. – home-based – and ageing workforce. http://photoskml.googlepages.com/gallery.htm#sftour ➔ For the most part, it will be about adapting existing policy ➔ From being very beach-orientated, tourism has become types to the many specific life situations that older adults more sophisticated and fragmented; particularly with the find themselves in. After all, a 70-year old man married to advent of low cost airlines offering a gateway to previously inaccessible destinations. HR: 40-year old woman needs just as much insurance as a 40-year old man. ➔ Technology presents both an opportunity and a threat to Survival of the Eldest ➔ Laws about age discrimination will become more robust. tourism as increasingly savvy travelers cut out travel agents An ageing workforce will bring employers a Mental Agility/Memory Protection and trawl the net for information on destinations, climate, ratings and the best deals. multitude of issues to deal with, not least ensuring that brain power matches staying power. ➔ The elderly, being the most resistant to change, will have to ➔ This is already changing the whole competitive framework cope with radically and rapidly evolving technologies and but imagine a time where tourists choose NOT to visit a ➔ The world's 65 and older population is expected to reach environments. country with a bad ecological record or where the damage 1.53 billion by the year 2050, three times more than the ➔ There will be an increased need for cognitive training and caused by long haul flights completely transforms our travel 516 million alive today. By mid-century, 16 percent of the tools that will ensure that the silver workforce maintains its options. When it is no longer possible to hop on a plane and world's population is expected to be 65 or older. mental fitness as well as keeps up to date with technologies be on another continent 9 or 12 hours later because the that will be evolving exponentially. environmental fall-out can no longer be countenanced. ➔ The 85-and-older group will increase from 40 million in 2009 in the world to 219 million by mid-century. ➔ To save the planet we may even need to limit our tourism COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT ➔ By 2050, 100 countries will have an older population to the virtual world. This could provide opportunities for accounting for 20 percent or more of their country, with Second Life, GoogleEarth or any number of new start ups Europe remaining the world's oldest region. able to offer experiential products and services. Flexibility/Human Rights ➔ On the other hand, that would decimate travel operators, airlines and the hotel industry. And Home would have to ➔ As the workforce ages, employers will have to build become the new Abroad. flexibility into working hours to allow workers to build in more rest, as well as the possibility of absences for care giving to their own even more elderly parents. http://games.lumosity.com/chimp.html
  3. 3. HEALTHCARE: ➔ Increased longevity is a triumph for public health and the result of social and economic development. Nevertheless, ➔ It has the potential to form a link between business ethics, business basics, consumer engagement and bottom line Age shall not many individuals will face, as they age, the risk of having at least one chronic disease, such as diabetes, hypertension or benefits, while also benefiting the health and prosperity of the wider community. wither them osteo-muscular conditions. ➔ Consumers in the UK are now purchasing a product The elderly population will also shape healthcare ➔ On a positive note, looming on the horizon are some associated with a good cause every second. the world over. very promising drug discoveries. The biotech industry is developing new therapies that can cure such diseases as ➔ Cause-related marketing can increase sales as much as ➔ 65% of health care costs are spent on over 65 yr olds. Alzheimer’s — treatments that are bound to lead to the 74 percent in certain consumer-goods categories, and world’s first “lifestyle” drugs that deal with forgetfulness. consumers spend twice as long looking at cause-related ➔ 75% of pharma shares are owned by the over 65s. ads than generic corporate ones. ➔ The pharma industry is owned by older people for older COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT ➔ In 2009 Tesco announced staff and customers had raised people and yet you would be forgiven for not realising this. over £6.1 million for their Charity of the Year, Marie Curie Cancer Care. This total was the result of 14 months of ➔ Media headlines shriek of abuse, neglect or carelessness, fundraising in stores, distribution centres and offices across inappropriate medication, malnutrition and a lack of dignity, the UK. The amount raised breaks all previous fundraising privacy and confidentiality. records for a Tesco Charity of the Year partnership and – significantly – comes despite the recent economic downturn. The reality is that: • Treatment for minor strokes is often covertly rationed for people over 80 years of age. COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT http://tiny.cc/LywZo • Angina sufferers are less likely to see a specialist or to have tests if they are over 65. CSR: • Priorities for health and social care restrict targets for reducing heart disease, strokes and cancer to people under 75. It’s good to give As consumers come to grips with the new world • Invitations to breast screening stop for women over 70. order post the global banking crisis and world recession, they are increasingly looking to http://tiny.cc/ejc3C • Older people tend to be excluded from drug trials. organisations that share their concerns and reflect that in their marketing. ➔ In addition, the majority of older people will be living in developing countries that are often the least prepared to ➔ Cause Related Marketing is not philanthropy, nor is it confront the challenges of rapidly ageing societies. altruism; it is consumer-led and market driven. Used correctly and efficiently, Cause Related Marketing can also impact directly on the bottom line.
  4. 4. ENERGY/LOGISTICS: ➔ These issues are just one part of the complex issue of energy security. Beyond the threat of terrorism, energy security is CONTACT: Oil terrorism becoming an issue of increasing importance to the United States and its European allies, as some energy producers are Elaine Cameron The possibility of energy terrorism - attacks on the showing a tendency to use oil and gas as political leverage. Manager world’s energy infrastructure - may not generate the Strategic Research & Innovation EMEA same attention as potential chemical or biological or ➔ The world’s vulnerability to supply disruptions will increase elaine.cameron@bm.com nuclear terrorism. But the economic implications of as international trade expands. Recent geopolitical developments and surging energy prices have brought that such attacks are potentially enormous. Stéphanie Bonnet message dramatically home. Managing Director ➔ Many believe that there is a ‘‘terror premium’’ factored into ➔ Flourishing trade will strengthen the mutual dependence Strategic Research & Innovation EMEA the price of a barrel of oil and that oil terrorism is emerging among exporting and importing countries. But it will also stephanie.bonnet@bm.com as a major threat to the global economy. exacerbate the risks that wells or pipelines could be closed or tankers blocked by piracy, terrorist attacks or accidents. ➔ The vulnerability of Saudi Arabia to energy terrorism http://www.burson-marsteller.eu is a particular concern. Saudi Arabia is the world’s most important oil-producing country, being the largest exporter and the only country with significant excess production COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT capacity. Over the last few years there have been several deadly attacks on Western oil workers. These have disrupted oil markets and had the effect of driving up insurance premiums. ➔ Pipelines, which carry one-half the world’s oil and most of its natural gas, are generally built above ground, making them common targets for terrorists and insurgents. There is concern that insurgents, having gained expertise from attacking Iraqi pipelines, will transfer their skills elsewhere. ➔ Global shipping “chokepoints” [such as the Strait of Malacca] are vulnerabilities in the world’s energy system. http://tiny.cc/eNsBh Various troubling scenarios are possible, including a terrorist hijacking of an oil tanker, to be turned into a floating bomb that could be detonated in a busy seaport.