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PREDICTIVE DATA &
AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE
U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A M B R I D G E P S Y C H O M E T R I C S C E N T R E
A N...
To establish the University of
Cambridge as an international centre
of excellence in computational
behavioural science
M I...
PREDICTING PSYCHOLOGY FROM
DIGITAL FOOTPRINTS
FACEBOOK LIKEIDS
FACEBOOK STATUSES
TWEETS
BROWSING DATA
OPEN TEXT
AND MORE…
...
SOCIAL SCIENCE
T H E L A R G E S T A N D M O S T R I C H S O C I A L S C I E N C E D A T A B A S E I N
H I S T O R Y , C O...
PREDICTIVE
DATA PROJECT
AN AUDIT OF PUBLIC OPINION ON BIG DATA
H O S T E D O N A D A T A D R I V E N P L A T F O R M : P R E D I C T I V E D A T A...
INTRODUCTION TO THE RESEARCH
T H I S I S T H E L A R G E S T A U D I T O F P U B L I C O P I N I O N O N B I G D A T A A N...
CONSUMERS ARE CONCERNED
O N L Y 2 9 % T H O U G H T M O S T C O M P A N I E S W I T H A C C E S S T O T H E I R
P E R S O ...
BUT CONSUMERS ARE INDIVIDUALS
We found that people who are more accepting of predictive
technologies tended to also be mor...
ALIGNING SERVICE WITH DEMAND
YES 38%
YES 84%
NO 62%
NO 16%
0 20 40 60 80 100
47% felt it should be used to determine the p...
CONTRASTING PUBLIC
AND MARKETING
PROFESSIONAL OPINIONS
MARKETING PROFESSIONALS WANT MORE
9 4 % S A I D I T W A S I M P O R T A N T F O R T H E M T O U N D E R S T A N D T H E P ...
RISKS OF OVERESTIMATING PUBLIC DEMAND
9 4 % S A I D I T W A S I M P O R T A N T F O R T H E M T O U N D E R S T A N D T H ...
AND THERE IS INEQUALITY IN TRUST
T H E P U B L I C ’ S S U S P I C I O N O F T H E U S E O F P E R S O N A L D A T A I S C...
Trust-Building Behaviors:
Concerns around Data, Quality and Security
for TechI m p o r t a n c e v s . p e r f o r m a n c...
PRIVACY, TRANSPARENCY
AND RELEVANCE
PRIVACY
P R I V A C Y I S T O P O F M I N D
58% (11,090) of people surveyed reported having not used a
popular digital ser...
PERSONALISATION
of CMOs thought their customers’ experience
of their brand was highly personalised to
their individual att...
AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE
57% of people thought that smart
fridge data should be used to
recommend groceries to them when
they ...
THE BENEFIT OF TRUSTED DATA
W H A T H A P P E N S W H E N Y O U G E T I T R I G H T
ETHICS
BETTER DATA
BETTER
OFFERING
BET...
THANK YOU
U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A M B R I D G E P S Y C H O M E T R I C S C E N T R E
A N D E D E L M A N
J U N E 2 0 ...
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Predictive Data & Ambient Intelligence

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A data driven study into privacy, prediction and personalisation by Edelman & The University of Cambridge Psychometrics Centre

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Predictive Data & Ambient Intelligence

  1. 1. PREDICTIVE DATA & AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A M B R I D G E P S Y C H O M E T R I C S C E N T R E A N D E D E L M A N J U N E 2 0 1 6
  2. 2. To establish the University of Cambridge as an international centre of excellence in computational behavioural science M I S S I O N
  3. 3. PREDICTING PSYCHOLOGY FROM DIGITAL FOOTPRINTS FACEBOOK LIKEIDS FACEBOOK STATUSES TWEETS BROWSING DATA OPEN TEXT AND MORE… DEMOGRAPHICS o Age o Gender o Relationship status o Location o Big 5 Personality o Intelligence o Life Satisfaction o Political Views o Religious Views o Sexuality o Profession o Risk Propensity The trait prediction engine is based on actual psychological data and the corresponding social media profiles of over 6 MILLION individuals. INDIVIDUAL INSIGHTSDIGITAL FOOTPRINTS APPLY MAGIC SAUCE PSYCHOGRAPHICS
  4. 4. SOCIAL SCIENCE T H E L A R G E S T A N D M O S T R I C H S O C I A L S C I E N C E D A T A B A S E I N H I S T O R Y , C O N T A I N I N G R I C H P S Y C H O - D E M O G R A P H I C P R O F I L E S O N T H E A U D I E N C E S O F O V E R 2 0 0 , 0 0 0 B R A N D S Over 6 MILLION unique participants Data shared with 150 academic collaborators Responses to 25-30 validated psychological assessments 40+ peer-reviewed publications since 2011 Privacy-preserving INDIVIDUAL INSIGHTS Better-than-spouse personality prediction published in PNAS ”The most interesting thing for me is the predictive power of a few minuscule “likes,” revealing a person’s feelings about a current event, a friend’s haircut or a picture of a dancing cat. Remarkably, from these little pixels of disconnected opinion, a pattern-seeking computer can create a detailed pointillist picture of each of us in all our individuality.
  5. 5. PREDICTIVE DATA PROJECT
  6. 6. AN AUDIT OF PUBLIC OPINION ON BIG DATA H O S T E D O N A D A T A D R I V E N P L A T F O R M : P R E D I C T I V E D A T A P R O J E C T . C O M P R E D I C T I V E B I G D A T A R E S E A R C H A I M S To scientifically examine and monitor public attitudes towards predictive technologies. To explore the diverse opinions and psychological attributes of global consumers, and marketing and communications professionals.
  7. 7. INTRODUCTION TO THE RESEARCH T H I S I S T H E L A R G E S T A U D I T O F P U B L I C O P I N I O N O N B I G D A T A A N D P R E D I C T I V E T E C H N O L O G I E S I N H I S T O R Y W I T H 34,267 PEOPLE ( A N D C O U N T I N G ) T H A T H A V E E N G A G E D W I T H T H E P R E D I C T I V E D A T A P R O J E C T A S S E S S M E N T P L A T F O R M 13% (1,868) of the participants were marketing or communications professionals 8, 877 people answered all questions, including 20 personality items A truly global sample; 43% Europe, 27% North America, 15% South America. Top countries were USA (23%), UK (8%) Brazil (7%) and France (5%) Demographic data shows an average age of 30 (distribution 10-78); 54% male; 16% tech, 11% education, 5% advertising, 4% financial services
  8. 8. CONSUMERS ARE CONCERNED O N L Y 2 9 % T H O U G H T M O S T C O M P A N I E S W I T H A C C E S S T O T H E I R P E R S O N A L D A T A U S E I T E T H I C A L L Y AGE BIG5 PERSONALITY GENDER LOCATION O U R D A T A S H O W S T H A T C O N C E R N S A B O U T P E R S O N A L P R E D I C T I O N S A R E U N I V E R S A L To scientifically examine and monitor public attitudes towards predictive technologies. To explore the diverse opinions and psychological attributes of global consumers, and marketing and communications professionals. A clear, consistent message on predictive data could therefore resonate well with large segments of the public without alienating specific personality segments
  9. 9. BUT CONSUMERS ARE INDIVIDUALS We found that people who are more accepting of predictive technologies tended to also be more open-minded, cooperative and extraverted than those who are more reserved on the topic. This supports previous research: People who trust the government also tend to be more emotionally stable, more cooperative and more extraverted Zhou & Lu (2011): high extraversion and low neuroticism related to greater degrees of trust in digital technologies Korukonda (2007): high openness and agreeableness negatively related to computer anxiety, while neuroticism was positively correlated.
  10. 10. ALIGNING SERVICE WITH DEMAND YES 38% YES 84% NO 62% NO 16% 0 20 40 60 80 100 47% felt it should be used to determine the price of car insurance 71% of patients were happy to share social media information with their doctor (add reference here) Should predictive technologies be used to improve thequality of healthcare, for example by helping doctors to recommend personalised nutrition and exercise plans? Should predictive technologies be used assess your eligibility for a mortgage?
  11. 11. CONTRASTING PUBLIC AND MARKETING PROFESSIONAL OPINIONS
  12. 12. MARKETING PROFESSIONALS WANT MORE 9 4 % S A I D I T W A S I M P O R T A N T F O R T H E M T O U N D E R S T A N D T H E P S Y C H O L O G I C A L A T T R I B U T E S O F T H E I R C U S T O M E R S 7 8 % S A I D T H E I R O R G A N I S A T I O N N E E D S T O I N V E S T I N P R E D I C T I V E T E C H N O L O G I E S YES 53% YES 78% NO 47% NO 22% 0 20 40 60 80 100 NON-CMOS CMOS There’s also a gap in desire for personalisation using predictive technologies, with 78% of CMOs saying Yes compared to 53% of non-CMOs
  13. 13. RISKS OF OVERESTIMATING PUBLIC DEMAND 9 4 % S A I D I T W A S I M P O R T A N T F O R T H E M T O U N D E R S T A N D T H E P S Y C H O L O G I C A L A T T R I B U T E S O F T H E I R C U S T O M E R S 7 8 % S A I D T H E I R O R G A N I S A T I O N N E E D S T O I N V E S T I N P R E D I C T I V E T E C H N O L O G I E S 50% CMOs think future behaviour can be predicted accurately from personal data compared to 36% non-CMO 62% CMOs have heard of the right to be forgotten compared to 47% non-CMOs Across all domains, marketing and communications professionals (CMOs) were more accepting of uses of predictive technologies and found their adoption generally more desirable than people who do not work in marketing AWARENESS ACCEPTANCE
  14. 14. AND THERE IS INEQUALITY IN TRUST T H E P U B L I C ’ S S U S P I C I O N O F T H E U S E O F P E R S O N A L D A T A I S C L E A R This lack of trust, and unease amongst consumers, could become a real problem – unless we tackle it now through the adoption of best practices and the right ethical approaches 53 58 56 56 60 44 47 46 46 48 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 • Percent trust in the four institutions of government, business, media and NGOs, 2012 to 2016 Informed Public Mass Population 12pt Gap 9pt Gap in trust inequality-- which jumps to a 5-point increase among the GDP5 3-point increase
  15. 15. Trust-Building Behaviors: Concerns around Data, Quality and Security for TechI m p o r t a n c e v s . p e r f o r m a n c e o f b e h a v i o r i n b u i l d i n g t r u s t i n a c o m p a n y % Importance % Performance Gap
  16. 16. PRIVACY, TRANSPARENCY AND RELEVANCE
  17. 17. PRIVACY P R I V A C Y I S T O P O F M I N D 58% (11,090) of people surveyed reported having not used a popular digital service because of privacy concerns 27% would pay $3 a month to use Facebook without their behaviour being recorded, given that the average revenue per user is around $1.33/month ”The most interesting thing for me is the predictive power of a few minuscule “likes,” revealing a person’s feelings about a current event, a friend’s haircut or a picture of a dancing cat. Remarkably, from these little pixels of disconnected opinion, a pattern-seeking computer can create a detailed pointillist picture of each of us in all our individuality.
  18. 18. PERSONALISATION of CMOs thought their customers’ experience of their brand was highly personalised to their individual attributes, whereas 55% of non-CMOs thought this was the case 64% 66% 56% of people would prefer to see personalised advertising, assuming they have to see some advertising of people thought predictive technologies should be used to personalise their online and mobile experience
  19. 19. AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE 57% of people thought that smart fridge data should be used to recommend groceries to them when they go shopping. 42% of people thought that the benefits of smart appliances pre-ordering groceries and adjusting room temperature outweighed the privacy risks related to the data generated on patterns in their home life
  20. 20. THE BENEFIT OF TRUSTED DATA W H A T H A P P E N S W H E N Y O U G E T I T R I G H T ETHICS BETTER DATA BETTER OFFERING BETTER BUSINESS TRUST
  21. 21. THANK YOU U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A M B R I D G E P S Y C H O M E T R I C S C E N T R E A N D E D E L M A N J U N E 2 0 1 6

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