Ensuring Technical Readiness For Copilot in Microsoft 365
Wikipedia Slowing Growth and Models
1. Slowing Growth of Wikipedia:Implications for the Future Bongwon Suh, Gregorio Convertino, Ed H. Chi, Peter Pirolli Augmented Social Cognition Area Palo Alto Research Center
2. What’s Happening to Contribution Patterns inside Wikipedia? What’re the Global Activity level patterns? What’re activity patterns by Editor Classes? Are the Population Sizes stable? Analysis of Population by Editor Class
3. Exponential Growth of Wikipedia was an accepted ‘fact’ Number of Articles (Log Scale) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Modelling_Wikipedia’s_growth
7. Slowing Growth in Global Activity Monthly Active Editors *In thousands
8. What’s Happening to Contribution Patterns inside Wikipedia? What’re the Global Activity level patterns? What’re activity patterns by Editor Classes? Are the Population Sizes stable? Analysis of Population by Editor Class
11. Reverts in Wikipedia Undoing the effects of one or more edits The page being restored to a version that existed sometime previously. Reverting may also refer to any action that reverses the actions of other editors. Fighting vandalism This analysis exclude vandalism to model “resistance”
13. Growing Resistance Increased resistance from the Wikipedia community to activities by occasional editors Disparity of treatment of edits Occasional editors have been reverted in a higher rate Photo: http://lianza2009.wordpress.com/
14. What’s Happening to Contribution Patterns inside Wikipedia? What’re the Global Activity level patterns? What’re activity patterns by Editor Classes? Are the Population Sizes stable? Analysis of Population by Editor Class
17. Some Key Takeaways What’re the Global Activity level patterns? No longer following an exponential growth curve. Logistic growth is now a better explanation What’re activity patterns by Editor Classes? Middle class decreasing their proportion of edits Different editor classes experience differing resistances Are the Population Sizes stable? Middle class a smaller portion of the pyramid
18. Exponential Growth Model Exponential growth model Growth rate depends on the current N Preferential Attachment: Edits beget edits The more number of previous edits, the more number of new edits r, growth rate of the population
19. Logistic Growth Model Ecological population growth model r, growth rate of the population K, carrying capacity (due to resource limitation)
20. Number of New Articles Follows a logistic growth curve New Article
22. Struggle for Existence - Darwin Biological system Competition increases as population hit the limits of the ecology Advantage go to members of the population that have competitive dominance over others Analogy Limited opportunities to make novel contributions Increased patterns of conflict and dominance
23. Population Dynamics Model Ecological growth model r, growth rate of the population K, carrying capacity (due to resource limitation) r-Strategist Growth or exploitation Less-crowded niches / produce many offspring K-Strategist Conservation Strong competitors in crowded niches / invest more heavily in fewer offspring [Gunderson & Holling 2001]
24. Factors Affecting the Growth of Wikipedia People-ware Growing resistance to new content Coordination cost and bureaucracy Knowledge-ware Availability of easy topics to write about Tool-ware Quality of tools used by editors and admins
25. Thank you! Monthly Ratio of Reverted Edits ed.chi@parc.com http://asc-parc.blogspot.com Augmented Social Cognition Area Palo Alto Research Center
Typically, r-selected species exploit less-crowded ecological niches, and produce many offspring, each of which has a relatively low probability of surviving to adulthood. In contrast, K-selected species are strong competitors in crowded niches, and invest more heavily in fewer offspring, each of which has a relatively high probability of surviving to adulthood. In the scientific literature, r-selected species are occasionally referred to as "opportunistic", while K-selected species are described as "equilibrium"