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Wikipedia Slowing Growth and Models

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BayCHI presentation on WikiSym paper results

Wikipedia Slowing Growth and Models

  1. 1. Slowing Growth of Wikipedia:Implications for the Future<br />Bongwon Suh, Gregorio Convertino, Ed H. Chi, Peter Pirolli<br />Augmented Social Cognition Area <br />Palo Alto Research Center<br />
  2. 2. What’s Happening to Contribution Patterns inside Wikipedia?<br />What’re the Global Activity level patterns?<br />What’re activity patterns by Editor Classes?<br />Are the Population Sizes stable? Analysis of Population by Editor Class<br />
  3. 3. Exponential Growth of Wikipedia was an accepted ‘fact’<br />Number of Articles (Log Scale)<br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Modelling_Wikipedia’s_growth<br />
  4. 4. Growth of Edits<br />Monthly Edits<br />
  5. 5. Growth of Active Editors<br />Active Editors<br />
  6. 6. Something happened in early 2007<br />Monthly Edits<br />
  7. 7. Slowing Growth in Global Activity<br />Monthly Active Editors<br />*In thousands<br />
  8. 8. What’s Happening to Contribution Patterns inside Wikipedia?<br />What’re the Global Activity level patterns?<br />What’re activity patterns by Editor Classes?<br />Are the Population Sizes stable? Analysis of Population by Editor Class<br />
  9. 9. Activity By Editor Classes<br />Monthly Edits by Editor Class (in thousands)<br />
  10. 10. Monthly % of Edits by Editor Class<br />
  11. 11. Reverts in Wikipedia<br />Undoing the effects of one or more edits<br />The page being restored to a version that existed sometime previously. <br />Reverting may also refer to any action that reverses the actions of other editors.<br />Fighting vandalism<br />This analysis exclude vandalism to model “resistance”<br />
  12. 12. Ratio of Reverted Contributions <br />Monthly Ratio of Reverted Edits<br />
  13. 13. Growing Resistance<br />Increased resistance from the Wikipedia community to activities by occasional editors<br />Disparity of treatment of edits<br />Occasional editors have been reverted in a higher rate<br />Photo: http://lianza2009.wordpress.com/<br />
  14. 14. What’s Happening to Contribution Patterns inside Wikipedia?<br />What’re the Global Activity level patterns?<br />What’re activity patterns by Editor Classes?<br />Are the Population Sizes stable? Analysis of Population by Editor Class<br />
  15. 15. Population Analysis<br />Monthly Active Editors<br />
  16. 16. Population by Editor Class<br />
  17. 17. Some Key Takeaways<br />What’re the Global Activity level patterns?<br />No longer following an exponential growth curve.<br />Logistic growth is now a better explanation<br />What’re activity patterns by Editor Classes?<br />Middle class decreasing their proportion of edits<br />Different editor classes experience differing resistances<br />Are the Population Sizes stable? <br />Middle class a smaller portion of the pyramid<br />
  18. 18. Exponential Growth Model<br />Exponential growth model<br />Growth rate depends on the current N<br />Preferential Attachment: Edits beget edits<br />The more number of previous edits, the more number of new edits<br />r, growth rate of the population<br />
  19. 19. Logistic Growth Model<br />Ecological population growth model<br />r, growth rate of the population<br />K, carrying capacity (due to resource limitation)<br />
  20. 20. Number of New Articles<br />Follows a logistic growth curve<br />New Article<br />
  21. 21. A modified logistic model<br />Carrying Capacity as a function of time.<br />
  22. 22. Struggle for Existence - Darwin<br />Biological system<br />Competition increases as population hit the limits of the ecology<br />Advantage go to members of the population that have competitive dominance over others<br />Analogy<br />Limited opportunities to make novel contributions<br />Increased patterns of conflict and dominance <br />
  23. 23. Population Dynamics Model<br />Ecological growth model<br />r, growth rate of the population<br />K, carrying capacity (due to resource limitation)<br />r-Strategist<br />Growth or exploitation<br />Less-crowded niches / produce many offspring<br />K-Strategist<br />Conservation<br />Strong competitors in crowded niches / invest more heavily in fewer offspring<br />[Gunderson & Holling 2001]<br />
  24. 24. Factors Affecting the Growth of Wikipedia<br />People-ware<br />Growing resistance to new content<br />Coordination cost and bureaucracy<br />Knowledge-ware<br />Availability of easy topics to write about<br />Tool-ware<br />Quality of tools used by editors and admins<br />
  25. 25. Thank you!<br />Monthly Ratio of Reverted Edits<br />ed.chi@parc.com<br />http://asc-parc.blogspot.com<br />Augmented Social Cognition Area <br />Palo Alto Research Center<br />
  26. 26. http://strategy.wikipedia.org<br />
  27. 27. User-Block and Vandalism<br />
  28. 28. Page-Protection and Vandalism<br />

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