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HCI Korea 2012 Keynote Talk on Model-Driven Research in Social Computing

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Model-Driven Research in Social Computing

Research in Augmented Social Cognition is aimed at enhancing the ability of a group of people to remember, think, and reason. Our approach to creating this augmentation or enhancement is primarily model-driven. Our system developments are informed by models such as information scent, sensemaking, information theory, probabilistic models, and more recently, evolutionary dynamic models. These models have been used to understand a wide variety of user behaviors, from individuals interacting with social bookmark search in Delicious and MrTaggy.com to groups of people working on articles in Wikipedia. These models range in complexity from a simple set of assumptions to complex equations describing human and group behaviors.

By studying online social systems such as Google Plus, Twitter, Delicious, and Wikipedia, we further our understanding of how knowledge is constructed in a social context. In this talk, I will illustrate how a model-driven approach could help illuminate the path forward for research in social computing and community knowledge building.

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HCI Korea 2012 Keynote Talk on Model-Driven Research in Social Computing

  1. 1. HCI Korea 2012 | Invited Talk!Model-Driven Research in Social Computing!!Ed H. Chi!!GoogleResearch!!Work done whileat Palo AltoResearch Center(PARC)!!! 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 1
  2. 2. It started with a search engine
  3. 3. This is also Google... 2012-01-12 (and much, much more). HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 3
  4. 4. Our mission remains the same To organize the world s information and make it universally accessible and useful.
  5. 5. 1.8 billion internet users worldwide 4.6 billion mobile subscribers 800 exabytes of digital information in the world -- videos, photos, music, texts, etc.2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 5
  6. 6. !"#$%&""($%!")*+(%!,+,-%!  !"#$###%&()*%+(,%&(-..,/%,+01%2-/3.,%/%4566,(%7% .1+.8*%9:#%2-55-/%&()*%+%)+;%!  <=,(;%>:%*,0/)*%?,?5,%=-,&%,/361%?1.*%@(2% A-0+*+%B,C%D5C32*%.%0=,(%+/%,/.-(,%@.C+55%E,5)%!  <=,(;%F%2-/3.,*$%2(,%?1.*%+(,%=-,&,)%/%A-0+*+% B,C%D5C32*%.1+/%,G-*.%-/%.1,%,/.-(,%H-2,7IJK<%?1.% 055,0.-/%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 7
  7. 7. ."/0/1$%!,+,-%!  >"#%;,+(*%@%L3H3C,%=-),%+(,%&+.01,)%,=,(;)+;%/% K+0,CM%N3?%!O"G%;P;Q%!  ,=,(;%2-/3.,%R##S%.&,,.*%0/.+-/%L3H3C,%5-/M*%% T  N3?%9G%;P;Q%UV>%!#>>>W%!  >##XS%?,?5,%.+M,%+%*0-+5%+0.-/%&-.1%L3H3C,%N5-M,*$% *1+(,*$%022,/.*$%,.0Q%,=,(;%&,,M%N>#P>"P>#Q%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 8
  8. 8. &""($2%!,+,-%!  Y=,(%R#%2-55-/%?,?5,%Z-/,)%[65,%*-/0,%5+3/01O%!  Y=,(%9OR%C-55-/%?1.*%1+=,%+5(,+);%C,,/%*1+(,)%-/% [65,SO%!  A,?5,%+(,%!G79G%.-2,*%2(,%5-M,5;%.%*1+(,%0/.,/.%&-.1% /,%@%.1,-(%0-(05,*%.1+/%.%2+M,%+%?3C5-0%?*.O%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 9
  9. 9. What can you do with all this data? Google Trends Trendalyzer Big Data Analytics!! Google Analytics Google Website Optimizer 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 10
  10. 10. Model-Driven and Living Laboratory Approach Characterization Unlock Understanding Intelligent UI and Modeling of Collective Intelligence and Data-mining Productization Living Laboratory Applications / Products 11
  11. 11. 0+(3%*4%5%6),-%H1,%J2?(.+/0,%@%]0-+5%]-6/+5*%-/%J/@(2+.-/%D00,**% !  D0.%J%H1,%J/=-*-C5,% T  ]0-+5%],+(01% !  D0.%JJ%H1,%^-*-C5,% T  ]0-+5%4(&*-/6%=-+%]1+(,)%D//.+.-/*% !  D0.%JJJ%H1,%DC*.(+0.,)% T  ]1+(,)%_/&5,)6,%]?+0,%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 12
  12. 12. 6),%78%%749*-*1($%!")*+(%!*4+(-%:;"#%,<$%=;">?% `-/.%&(M%&P%H))%X;.M&-0a$%b&+/%c+-(/$%I+&(,/0,%I,,% % Ud1-%+/)%X;.M&-0a$%e;?,(.,G.!##FW% U_+22,(,(%,.%+5O$%deJ!##fW% %
  13. 13. @;$(/?$8%6%A$;-"4+(%($+;4*4%-,";B%H%01-g+02O(6%K(2%4(+)%4+((-*1%hC(+)gi(,2=,)O@(O?(-=+0;iO02j%]3CZ,0.%A+/0(,+.-0%0+/0,(%k+.,%H13$%>%K,C%!##l%!>9l""%A]H%%e,;%<)O%Jm2%+%@,55&%),5O-0-O3*%3*,(%+/)%/.-0,)%;3%CM2+(M%+%5.%%%@%?+/0(,+.-0%0+/0,(%*.3nO%Jm2%+.%12,%&-.1%2;%)+)%&1%&+*%)-+6/*,)%%%+%5-..5,%=,(%+%;,+(%+6%+/)%-*%/&%+.%.1,%.+5,%,/)%@%.1-/6*O%Jm=,%%%5,+(/,)%+%5.%.1(361%1-*%.(,+.2,/.*%+/)%+C3.%&1+.m*%3.%.1,(,O%J%%%)3//%-@%-.m*%*2,.1-/6%;3%(%+%@+2-5;%2,2C,(%1+*$%C3.%Z3*.%&+/.,)%%%.%)(?%;3%+/%,2+-5O%4,%&,55O%%4(+)%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 14
  14. 14. C-*4%74:";#+,*"4%0<$";B%,"%D"?$(%!")*+(%0+*4%EF?%GH%=<*I%0"??%DB,3">*)JI%6=D%GBA$;,$K,%LMMNO% (")%*#+& !"#$%& ,&*-& ."%/0*)+& &()*% !12& .*%"4$)2 3)%"4$)2 !"#!$% 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 15
  15. 15. 0+*4%P$<+9*";%GQ0+R%-<">-%,+%-+,/;+,*"4% GQS")%T%0+RI%1;">-+1*(*,B% 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 16
  16. 16. 7#A(*)+,*"4%!Q"#$U%%&R%%D/,/+(%74:";#+,*"4% V+*-$%*4%+9H%,+%W%1""3#+;3% 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 17
  17. 17. 0+!$+;)<8%D+AV$?/)$%7#A($#$4,+,*"4% Tags URLs P(URL|Tag) P(Tag|URL) !  ]?(,+)-/6%D0.-=+.-/%-/%+%C-76(+?1% !  d2?3.+.-/%=,(%+%=,(;%5+(6,%)+.+%*,.% T  >"#%X-55-/S%CM2+(M*%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 18
  18. 18. 0+!$+;)<8%C-$%!$#+4,*)%64+(B-*-%,"% V$?/)$%X"*-$%%%%%<,,A8WW#;,+BH)"#%%Semantic Similarity Graph Web Tools Reference Guide Howto Tutorial Tips Help Tip Tutorials Tricks 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 19
  19. 19. 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 20
  20. 20. FKA$;*#$4,%S$-*4%%EY+##$;$;%$,%+(H%=G7LMMZO%!  !%-/.,(@+0,%G%9%.+*M%)2+-/%),*-6/% T  !%J/.,(@+0,%NC,.&,,/7*3CZ,0.*Q% !  <G?5(+.(;%=*O%4+*,5-/,% T  9%.+*M%)2+-/*%N&-.1-/7*3CZ,0.*Q% !  K3.3(,%D(01-.,0.3(,$%[5C+5%B+(2-/6$%B,C%X+*13?*%!  9#%]3CZ,0.*%N!!%2+5,$%F%@,2+5,Q% T  J/.,(2,)-+.,%(%+)=+/0,)%02?3.,(%+/)%&,C%*,+(01%*M-55*% T  e+5@%+**-6/,)%<G?5(+.(;$%1+5@%4+*,5-/,O%!  K(%,+01%)2+-/$%*-/65,%C50M%&-.1%9%.+*M%.;?,*% T  <+*;%+/)%k-o035.%A+6,%d55,0.-/%H+*M%U:2-/%,+01W% T  ]322+(-a+.-/%H+*M%U>!2-/W% T  _,;&()%[,/,(+.-/%H+*M%U!2-/W% 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 21
  21. 21. F9+/+,*"4%V$-/(,-%EY+##$;$;%$,%+(HI%=G7LMMZO%!  <G?5(+.(;%-/.,(@+0,%3*,(*% T  ?,(@(2,)%2(,%p3,(-,*$%% T  .M%2(,%.-2,$%% T  &(.,%C,..,(%*322+(-,*%N-/%!P9%)2+-/*Q$%% T  6,/,(+.,)%2(,%(,5,=+/.%M,;&()*%N-/%!P9%)2+-/*Q$%+/)% T  1+)%+%1-61,(%06/-.-=,%5+)O%!  ]366,*.-=,%@%),,?,(%,/6+6,2,/.%+/)%C,..,(%5,+(/-/6O%!  ]2,%,=-),/0,%@%*0+n5)-/6%@(%/=-0,*%-/%.1,%M,;&()% 6,/,(+.-/%+/)%*322+(-a+.-/%.+*M*O% 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 22
  22. 22. ZeroZero88.com: !Social Contextual Recommendation Engine" Social Recommender Engine 2010-10-22 IBM NPUC 2010 23
  23. 23. ZeroZero88 Recommender System" My Friends’ Network My Tweets ! and Tweeting Pattern ! Topic Relevance Model! My Friends’ Tweets! Social Ranking! Model !My Friends’ Recommendations ! URLs! Recommendation Algorithm: Combining Sources and Models!Popular URLs ! 2010-10-22 IBM NPUC 2010 24
  24. 24. 6),%778%[*-*1($%!")*+(%!*4+(-%:;"#%%!<+;$?%G*<(*<,*4% _3)*%.%I-01+/%e/6$%I,*%c,5*/% % % Ue/6%,.%+5$%D^J!##FW% % Uc,5*/%,.%+5O$%edJJ%!##fW%
  25. 25. *4?*4%+%V$-,+/;+4,%!  D??(?(-+.,%@(% .1,%00+*-/%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 26
  26. 26. G$/;*-,*)-% Poor heuristic Good heuristic 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 27
  27. 27. ]G*4,-^% Solo Cooperative (“good hints”)2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 28
  28. 28. !A+;0+H/-8%!")*+(%G*<(*<,*4%%EG"4%_%=<*I%=G7LMMZO%
  29. 29. !A+;0+H/-8%!")*+(%G*<(*<,*4% !  !"#$%&%.+66-/6%&1-5,%(,+)-/6% !  e-615-61.-/6% !  ]1+(,)%/.,CM-/6%% !  ]1+(-/6q%
  30. 30. G*<(*<,*4%+-%7#A";,+4)$%%74?*)+,";%recall first-visit
  31. 31. <=+53+.-/%H+*M%s%X,.(-0%Uc,5*/%,.%+5O$%edJJ!##fW%!  ],/*,2+M-/6%.+*M% T  K-/)%+/)%(,+)%2+.,(-+5%+C3.% </.,(?(-*,%!O#%2+*13?* %-/%(),(%.% &(-.,%.&%,**+;*%!  ],,)*% ,G?,(. %0/.,/.%@(%*0+n5)-/6% T  H+6*%@(2%),5O-0-O3*% T  rbI*%@(2%[65,PA+6,b+/M% T  d/*.(30.,)%+/)%.1,/%*1+(,)%.1(361%*0-+5%2,01+/-*2*%N-O,O$%+% ]?+(H+6O3*% @(-,/) Q%!  A,(@(2+/0,%X,+*3(,*% T  I,+(/-/6%6+-/%A(,PA*.%_/&5,)6,%H,*.% Posttest score - Pretest score Gain = Max score - Pretest score%
  32. 32. @;")$?/;$% ]?+(H+6O3*% SF &-.1% K(-,/) % ]?+(H+6O3*%k,26(+?1-0*% SO Y/5;% A*..,*.% s%A(,.,*.% B-.13.% WS ]?+(H+6O3*%
  33. 33. V$-/(,-8%`$+;4*4%&+*4%ct>F%%!A+;0+H/-%2%;*$4?%-/A$;*";%,"%1",<%*4?*9*?/+(%)"4?*,*"4-%c%)-n,(,/0,%C,.&,,/%.1,%.&%0/.(5%0/)-.-/*% 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 34
  34. 34. rbI%_-/)% d),% 456% 4%a1-$;9+,*"4% d/@,(,/0,% d% <2?5;2,/.% <% X;O]?+(.+6O3*% X% c,&*% c% URL KindY?,/]3(0,% Code Y% Blog ],+(01%B ]% Conference C ^,/)(% ^% Employment E B-M-?,)-+% MySpartagus M B% News d/*35.+/.% N u% OpenSource O Search S Vendor V Wikipedia W Consultant X 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 35
  35. 35. ["4%V$-,";b%7-"(+,*"4%Fb$),%EcZ55O%!  D*%+??5-,)%.%1-615-61.*$%.1,%(#)*+,-.#/0*1-#2&.1#)*,0,$.* *366,*.*%.1+.%(,+),(*%!  ()*#&+",#&-#.-/$#-"#+/)%%!  (0*#1+)2"#34)&#%$#5)26+,$%%!  &1,.1,(%.1,%-/@(2+.-/%-*%-2?(.+/.%(%/.O% T  c-*.%+/)%e6(,C,%Fl%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 36
  36. 36. 6),%7778%%61-,;+),$?%Y4">($?$8%0<$%!)*$4)$%":%C4?$;-,+4?*4%d*3*A$?*+% _3)*%.%4/6&/%]31$%c-M-%_-..3(% % U_-..3(%,.%+5O$%deJ!##lW% U]31%,.%+5O$%B-M-];2%!##fW% %
  37. 37. FKA"4$4,*+(%&;">,<%":%d*3*A$?*+8%+4%+))$A,$?%e:+),f% Number of Articles (Log Scale) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Modelling_Wikipedia’s_growth2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 38
  38. 38. &;">,<%":%F?*,-%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 39
  39. 39. !"#$,<*4%<+AA$4$?%*4%$+;(B%LMMg%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 40
  40. 40. &;">,<%":%6),*9$%F?*,";-%*In thousands 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 41
  41. 41. !(">*4%&;">,<%*4%&("1+(%6),*9*,B%*In thousands 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 42
  42. 42. F+;(*$;%FKA"4$4,*+(%&;">,<%D"?$(% !  A(,@,(,/.-+5%D..+012,/.%<)-.*%C,6,.%,)-.*% T  2(,%/32C,(%@%?(,=-3*%,)-.*$%2(,%/32C,(%@%/,&%,)-.*% Growth rate depends on: N = current population r = growth rate of the population N(t) = N 0 " e rt dN = r" N dt Growth rate Current of population ! population! 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 43
  43. 43. `"*-,*)%&;">,<%D"?$(%!  <056-0+5%??35+.-/%6(&.1%2),5% T  D5*%),?,/)%/%,/=-(/2,/.+5%0/)-.-/*% T  _$%0+((;-/6%0+?+0-.;%N)3,%.%(,*3(0,%5-2-.+.-/Q% dN N = rN(1" ) dt K 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 44
  44. 44. D+,)<%,"%S+,+8%h%":%X$>%6;,*)($-%!  K55&*%+%56-*.-0%6(&.1%03(=,% New Article2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 45
  45. 45. !,;/($%:";%FK*-,$4)$%i%S+;>*4%!  4-56-0+5%*;*.,2% T  d2?,.-.-/%-/0(,+*,*%+*% ??35+.-/%1-.%.1,%5-2-.*%@%.1,% ,056;% T  D)=+/.+6,%6%.%2,2C,(*%@%.1,% ??35+.-/%.1+.%1+=,%02?,.-.-=,% )2-/+/0,%=,(%.1,(*%!  D/+56;% T  I-2-.,)%??(.3/-.-,*%.%2+M,% /=,5%0/.(-C3.-/*% T  J/0(,+*,)%?+..,(/*%@%0/v-0.%+/)% )2-/+/0,%% 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 46
  46. 46. ]!<">$;*4^%GBA",<$-*-%B1+.%)(-=,*%0/.(-C3.-/*%.%B-M-?,)-+w%d?,(+.-/%-*%/.%.1,%2+-/%)(-=,(w%!  e;?.1,*-*%d/v-0.*%)(-=,*%2*.%@%.1,%0/.(-C3.-/*O% T  e&%)%&,%2,+*3(,%0/v-0.*w%!  d/v-0.*%0+3*,%0()-/+.-/%0*.*%.%6%3?O% T  e&%.%2,+*3(,%0()-/+.-/%0*.*w%!  x/,6.-+.-/%-*%0(-.-0+5%.%1,5?-/6%235.-?5,%?,(*?,0.-=,*% .%0/=,(6,%/%*1+(,)%M/&5,)6,Oy%% T  ].+15$%[(3?%d6/-.-/$%d1F$%!##R%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 47
  47. 47. ="4j*),W="";?*4+,*"4%Fb$),-%*4%d*3*A$?*+% (Kittur, Suh, Pendleton, Chi, CHI2007) 100% 95% Maintenance 90%Percentage of total edits Other 85% 80% User Talk 75% User 70% Article Talk 65% Article 60% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 48
  48. 48. V+,*"%":%V$9$;,$?%="4,;*1/,*"4-%% Monthly Ratio of Reverted Edits2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 49
  49. 49. [*-/+(%64+(B,*)-%"9$;%d*3*A$?*+%?+,+%D$?*+,";%@+,,$;4%i%0$;;*%!)<*+9" % %E!/<I%$,%+(HI%[6!0LMMgO% Anonymous (vandals/ spammers) Sympathetic to husband Mediators Sympathetic to parents 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 50
  50. 50. d*3*S+-<1"+;?H)"#%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 51
  51. 51. d<+,%S*?%d$%`$+;4k%!  H1,%d22/%H1(,+)% T  r.-5-a+.-/%@%]0-+5%]-6/+5*%@(%I,+(/-/6%+/)%J/@(2+.-/%D00,**% T  B1,.1,(%-.%-*%-/=-*-C5,$%=-*-C5,$%+/)%+C*.(+0.,)O%!  H1,%<*.+C5-*12,/.%@%d22/%[(3/)% T  J2?5-0-.%d()-/+.-/% T  <G?5-0-.%d()-/+.-/% T  c,6.-+.-/%!  xD55%055,0.-=,%+0.-/*%+(,%C3-5.%/%022/%6(3/)%+/)% -.*%+003235+.-/Oy% T  d5+(M%+/)%4(,//+/$%>ff>%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 52
  52. 52. `">$;*4%@+;,*)*A+,*"4%W%74,$;+),*"4%="-,-%!  J/.,(+0.-/%0*.*% # People willing to produce for “free” ),.,(2-/,%/32C,(%@% ?,?5,%&1%?+(.-0-?+.,%!  ]3(?53*%@%+..,/.-/%s% 2.-=+.-/%+.%*2+55% .(+/*+0.-/%0*.*%!  74+2+.-2+i%!  J2?(.+/.%.%M,,?% -/.,(+0.-/%0*.*%5&% Cost of participation2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 53
  53. 53. 0<+43%B"/l% !  01-g+02O(6% !  1..?PP,)01-O/,.%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 54
  54. 54. C-*4%D+)<*4$%`$+;4*4%,"%S$,$),%="4j*),-%!  d3/.-/6%zd/.(=,(*-+58%5+C,5*%!  "G%0(**7=+5-)+.-/$%b!%t%#OFfl% 10000 9000 Actual controversial revisions 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Predicted controversial revisions 2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 55
  55. 55. ="?+8%6%=<+(($4$8%6%#"?*m$?%("*-,*)%#"?$(%!  d+((;-/6%d+?+0-.;%+*%+%@3/0.-/%@%.-2,O%2012-01-12 HCI Korea 2012 Invited Talk 56

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