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Sea-Level Decline
                                                     v 0.9 20090730 - Please comment
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Data Analysis, done through mean values, referenced in the                                                           The s...
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Sealevel

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Sealevel

  1. 1. Sea-Level Decline v 0.9 20090730 - Please comment Ecotretas (ecotretas@gmail.com) http://ecotretas.blogspot.com The analysis of 53 sea level stations, 2000- 2003- 2006- Country Station GLOSS 2009 2009 2009 distributed all over the world, suggests a Chile Easter 137 -129 -460 -319 decline of sea level by almost two feet, by Chile Antofagasta 174 -127 -309 -139 Chile Puerto Montt 178 -110 -139 -30 2100, if it continues the downward trend Kiribati Christmas 146 -92 -199 -400 observed over the last three years. Even USA Prudhoe Bay 151 -90 -247 -30 Japan Chichijima 103 -88 -141 -479 considering the average value for the last 9 Hong Kong Quarry Bay 77 -71 -4 268 years, this would lead to a rise of only one USA Wake Island 105 -56 -52 -295 Kiribati Tarawa 113 -54 -144 -310 inch during the XXI century. USA Unalaska 102 -49 -143 -181 South Africa Port Elizabeth 76 -49 -99 16 The analysis started by a search of data for the sea level France Brest 242 -49 33 -99 stations referenced in Douglas (1997) 1). The data used2) Australia Cocos Island 46 -23 26 244 was obtained from the University of Hawaii, which has the Australia Sydney 57 -23 46 212 most updated data available on the Internet. For the study, Ecuador Galapagos 169 -21 -90 -269 Thailand Ko Taphao Noi 42 -21 93 297 all stations without data in 2009 were excluded, as all that Japan Wakkanai 324 -19 -126 -193 did not have relevant data from 07/01/2000. USA Midway Islands 106 -17 27 -5 France Marseille 205 -13 -19 150 Since it was not possible to collect even half of the stations Japan Mera 86 -10 -39 -35 in Douglas (1997), this study was extended to include a United Newlyn 241 -9 33 -161 Kingdom reasonable amount of GLOSS stations 3) worldwide. With USA San Francisco 158 -3 -127 -139 the exception of some regions of the world, which had no Puerto Rico San Juan 206 0 -2 -237 data on the University of Hawaii's site, a distribution Japan Naha 81 2 -87 -371 covering almost all continents / oceans was obtained. This Tuvalu Funafuti 121 3 6 -15 distribution of stations is clear in Figure 1, with each New Zealand Wellington 101 6 28 114 USA Sitka 154 7 -91 -327 station being used marked by a cross. Spain La Coruna 243 7 149 -80 France Kerguelen 23 12 -122 -171 Micronesia Kapingamarangi 117 14 -17 98 Brazil Ilha Fiscal 195 14 57 -19 USA Atlantic City 220 16 -21 -129 USA Pensacola 288 18 -88 99 Spain Las Palmas 251 18 -13 4 USA Galveston 217 19 -40 -4 Australia Thevenard 308 19 154 560 USA La Jolla 159 20 -91 -340 Canada St-Johns 223 21 11 -213 USA Key West 216 22 9 -154 USA Honolulu 108 26 -144 -357 USA San Diego 30 -80 -214 Figure 1: Stations used in the study Sweden Gothenburg 233 31 3 -505 United Kingdom Port Stanley 305 38 30 136 The following table shows the trends of sea level rise, from Germany Cuxhaven 284 48 -2 -686 2000, 2003 and 2006 till present. Values are in centimeters, Belau Malakal 120 51 318 616 and refer to the value of the trend extended to 100 years. Cape Verde Palmeira 329 54 31 16 The values show increases in red, while green means a Australia Darwin 62 62 265 778 decrease in sea level. The table is ordered so that stations Cabo San Mexico 161 68 -35 -117 Lucas which are expected to obtain greater decline in the level of Portugal Ponta Delgada 245 78 77 129 the seas, appear first, according to the trend observed Mauritius Port Louis 18 128 152 318 between 2000 and 2009. Tanzania Zanzibar 297 132 115 178 Cook Islands Rarotonga 139 140 170 -59 Seychelles Point la Rue 273 161 168 -105 Average (all values in cm.) 3 -22 -56
  2. 2. Data Analysis, done through mean values, referenced in the The sea-level rise is clear betw een 2000 and late 2006, but last line of the table, leads to a conclusion that sea level seems to level off after that. Nevertheless, current sea-level will rise only one inch during the XXI century, if the trend is slightly 5 inches higher that it was 9 years ago. during the last 9 years (07/01/2000 - 06/30/2009) is maintained. But if we look at the trend of the last six years, Other stations exhibit somewhat the global behavior. the sea level decline would be almost 9 inches this century, Japan’s Naha station is the one nearest the overall trend. enough to offset the increase observed in the last century. Measurements for the last 9 years can be seen in Figure 4. But using the trend of the last three years, there would be a And while maximum values have dropped a lot, so have drop by almost two feet by the year 2100! minimum values gone up. These seasonal variations are visible in all stations, and are normal. The overall trend for Why is the official data from the IPCC, and others, so the last 9 years is a sea-level that is clearly stable. different? Simply because it does not take into account updated and recent data. According to the Wikipedia page 3200 y = 0.0005x + 2593.6 about sea level rise, the most recent data used in 3100 international studies is related to 2003! The data used in 3000 2900 this study is updated up to May this year (with the notable 2800 exception of Marseille, which is included because it is 2700 referenced in Douglas (1997)), and many already have data 2600 2500 after June 30 (not included in the study). 2400 2300 Geographical analysis of the data shows that the Pacific 2200 7/1/2000 7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 coast of North, Central and South America, has the largest Figure 4: Naha – Japan (GLOSS #81) decline trend. The station with the biggest downward trend, Easter Island, in Chile, is shown in Fig ure 2. Sea-level rise The main concern of climate alarmists is that there will be is clear between 2000 and mid-2006, but afterwards a clear major damage with sea level rise. Major criticism for this decline is observed, with minimum values decreasing by 8 study will come from the reduced timeframe used for the inches in a period of only one year. trend analysis. But as can be seen from Figure 5, which shows us the data for the sea level station of Honolulu, 2100 y = -0.0353x + 2875.3 while the trend is pointing upward for the last 9 years, it 2000 1900 has been going down for the last six years. 1800 1700 1700 y = 0.0071x + 1164.2 1600 1650 1500 1600 1550 1400 1500 1300 1450 1200 7/1/2000 7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 1400 1350 Figure 2: Easter Island – Chile (GLOSS #137) 1300 1250 On the other hand, data shows the Indian Ocean is clearly 1200 7/1/2000 7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 rising. Data from the Point La Rue, in Seychelles, the Figure 5: Honolulu – USA (GLOSS #108) station with the biggest rising trend, is shown in Figure 3. Finally, in the last nine years trend, the three biggest 1500 y = 0.0441x - 653.29 absolute changes are sea level rises. And in the last three 1400 years trend, three of the four largest variations are also 1300 rises. When things occur these way, and when the averages 1200 are the ones referenced, data outlier exclusion would 1100 increase even more sea level decline! 1000 1) 900 www.springerlink.com/content/p364381652174757/ 2) 800 Data obtained from http://ilikai.soest.hawaii.edu/uhslc/wocestc.html on 700 July 23th, 2009 3) 7/1/2000 7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 www.gloss-sealevel.org/ Figure 2: Point La Rue – Seychelles (GLOSS #273)

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