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1 pres.harvard university (05 09 14) ultimo

La exposición del Ministro de Economía y Finanzas Públicas Luis Arce Catacora en la Universidad de Harvard, Estados Unidos.

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1 
THE MODEL THAT CHANGED 
BOLIVIA’S ECONOMY 
Harvard University 
Luis A. Arce Catacora 
Minister of Economy and Public Finance of 
the Plurinational State of Bolivia 
September 5th, 2014
CONTENT 
I. General facts of Bolivia 
II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model 
III. Empirical evidence on the Economic Social 
Comunitarian Productive Model’s foundations 
IV. Macroeconomic Results 
V. Social Results 
VI. New Bolivia’s international image 
Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 2
CONTENT 
I. General facts of Bolivia 
Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 3
I. General facts of Bolivia 
Plurinational State of Bolivia: Geographical location 
Location and area 
Bolivia is located in the center of South America. 
It’s area extent is 1,098,581 square kilometers. 
Neighboring countries 
It is bounded on the North and East by Brazil, on 
the South by Argentina, on the West by Peru, on 
the Southeast by the Paraguay and on the 
Southwest by Chile. 
Phisiography 
Andean: 28% Subandean: 13% Plains: 59% 
Population 2012 
10,027,254 people 
5,028,265 women 
4,998,989 men 
Average annual population 
growth rate (Census 2012) 
2001 – 2012: 1.71% 
Population density (Census 2012) 
2012: 9.13 inhabitants per Km2 
Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 4
CONTENT 
II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model 
Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 5
Differences between the neoliberalism and new Economic Model 
Neoliberal Economic Model 
1. Free market economy 
2. Watching State 
3. Model of Privatization 
4. Primary-exporter model “export or 
die” 
5. External demand’s dependence 
6. Income concentration 
7. Economy focused on private initiatives 
8. Investment funding by external debt 
9. Poverty and inequality 
10. Objetive: The Control of Inflation 
11. Dependence on multilatral institutuions 
for economic policy. 
12. Non-existent fiscal and monetary policy 
(recurrent fiscal deficits and 
dollarization) 
Economic Social Comunitarian 
Productive Model 
1. The State intervenes actively in the economy 
2. Planner, entrepreneur, investor, regulator, 
benefactor, promoter and banker State 
3. Model of Nationalization 
4. Model of Industrialization 
5. Growth based on external and domestic demand 
6. Income redistribution by the State 
7. The State promotes the plural economy (State, 
Private sector, Cooperative and Comunitarian) 
8. Investment funding by domestic savings 
9. Further development, oportunities and social 
movility. 
10. Objective: Growth with income redistribution. 
Stability is a social patrimony. 
11. Soverign economic policy. 
12. Fiscal surplus, social policy and de-dollarization. 
Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 6

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1 pres.harvard university (05 09 14) ultimo

  • 1. 1 THE MODEL THAT CHANGED BOLIVIA’S ECONOMY Harvard University Luis A. Arce Catacora Minister of Economy and Public Finance of the Plurinational State of Bolivia September 5th, 2014
  • 2. CONTENT I. General facts of Bolivia II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model III. Empirical evidence on the Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model’s foundations IV. Macroeconomic Results V. Social Results VI. New Bolivia’s international image Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 2
  • 3. CONTENT I. General facts of Bolivia Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 3
  • 4. I. General facts of Bolivia Plurinational State of Bolivia: Geographical location Location and area Bolivia is located in the center of South America. It’s area extent is 1,098,581 square kilometers. Neighboring countries It is bounded on the North and East by Brazil, on the South by Argentina, on the West by Peru, on the Southeast by the Paraguay and on the Southwest by Chile. Phisiography Andean: 28% Subandean: 13% Plains: 59% Population 2012 10,027,254 people 5,028,265 women 4,998,989 men Average annual population growth rate (Census 2012) 2001 – 2012: 1.71% Population density (Census 2012) 2012: 9.13 inhabitants per Km2 Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 4
  • 5. CONTENT II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 5
  • 6. Differences between the neoliberalism and new Economic Model Neoliberal Economic Model 1. Free market economy 2. Watching State 3. Model of Privatization 4. Primary-exporter model “export or die” 5. External demand’s dependence 6. Income concentration 7. Economy focused on private initiatives 8. Investment funding by external debt 9. Poverty and inequality 10. Objetive: The Control of Inflation 11. Dependence on multilatral institutuions for economic policy. 12. Non-existent fiscal and monetary policy (recurrent fiscal deficits and dollarization) Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model 1. The State intervenes actively in the economy 2. Planner, entrepreneur, investor, regulator, benefactor, promoter and banker State 3. Model of Nationalization 4. Model of Industrialization 5. Growth based on external and domestic demand 6. Income redistribution by the State 7. The State promotes the plural economy (State, Private sector, Cooperative and Comunitarian) 8. Investment funding by domestic savings 9. Further development, oportunities and social movility. 10. Objective: Growth with income redistribution. Stability is a social patrimony. 11. Soverign economic policy. 12. Fiscal surplus, social policy and de-dollarization. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 6
  • 7. II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model THE NEW MODEL FOUNDATIONS 1. DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH BASED ON THE USE OF NATURAL RESOURCES AIMING TO BENEFIT ALL BOLIVIANS: Generation of larger economic surplus. Antithesis of the «Resource Curse theory». 2. APPROPRIATION OF THE ECONOMIC SURPLUS BY THE STATE OF BOLIVIA: Bolivia now receives the economic surplus from its strategic sectors and natural resources. 3. INCOME REDISTRIBUTIVE MODEL: The economic surplus must be redistributed mainly to the most needed people: conditional transfers (Bono Juancito Pinto, Bono Juana Azurduy and Renta Dignidad), public investment, inversely proportional wage increase, minimum wage increase, cross subsidies and others. 4. INEQUITY AND POVERTY REDUCTION: The model has a social visión, builds a more equal society with no poverty. More opportunities and social mobility. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 7
  • 8. II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model ECONOMIC SOCIAL COMUNITARIAN PRODUCTIVE MODEL STRATEGIC SECTORS SURPLUS’ GENERATORS INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT GENERATING SECTOR • Hidrocarbons • Mining • Electricity • Environmental resources • Industry, manufacturing and craftsmanship • Turism • Farming development • Housing • Trade, transport and other services Surplus REDISTRIBUTIVE STATE INCOME’s REDISTRIBUTION AND POVERTY REDUCTION • Conditional transfers: • Bono Juancito Pinto • Renta Dignidad • Bono Juana Azurduy • Cross Subsidies • Social Policies INDUSTRIALIZATION Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 8
  • 9. II. Economic Social Communitarian Productive Model Paper: “Structuring the New Economic Social Communitarian Productive Model” Luis Alberto Arce Catacora and David Quiroz Sillo Abstract • This paper presents a theoretical model, supported by empirical evidence, aiming to structure the main characteristics of the Bolivia’s new Economic Social Communitarian Productive Model that this country has been applying since 2006. • The work is based on the super-predator model and arrives to a solution by applying Lokta-Volterra’s equations. In the model, the economy is structured by two sectors, the strategic sector which main activity is the exploitation of non-renewable resources and the income and labor generating sector. The main conclusion of the model is that by transferring resources from the strategic sector (the surplus’ generator) towards the income and labor generating sector, it is possible to achieve sustained economic growth. • The empirical evidence obtained by running simulations and by estimating vector autoregressive models supports the conclusions of the theoretical model. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 9
  • 10. II. Economic Social Communitarian Productive Model Paper: “Structuring the New Economic Social Communitarian Productive Model” By Luis Alberto Arce Catacora David Quiroz Sillo • Policy recommendations from the model suggest that the State must assign the strategic sector’s surplus to the following: (i) aiming to expand the country's productive base and to support industrialization, (ii) aiming to support private sector through improvements in domestic demand, which will inject dynamism to the economy. With these policies the income and labor generating sector can be developed. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 10
  • 11. III. Economic Social Communitarian Productive Model Structuring the New Economic Social Communitarian Productive Model • The economy has two sectors : a strategic sector (X1) and an income and labor generating sector (X2). Both sectors comprise productive activities and thus generate economic surplus. • Strategic sector main activity is the exploitation of non-renewable resources • A share of the income and labor generating sector’s economic surplus belongs to and is administrated by the redistributing state. • Aggregate domestic demand is an important determinant of growth. • The state intervenes in the economy through : (i) government spending toward both sectors (X1 and X2), and (ii) social transfers aiming to reduce poverty and improve the redistribution of income. • State always keeps a balanced budget. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 11
  • 12. II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model Structuring the New Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model • The objective function of the state is to reach a production level in each period of time given by: 훼0 푋2 푈 푋1, 푋2 = 푋1 훼1 • Where (X1) and (X2) represent the production level of the strategic sector and of the income and labor generating sector, respectively. Both sectors comprise productive activities and thus generate economic surplus. Strategic sector’s main activity is the exploitation of non-renewable resources • As the state always keeps a balanced budget, then taxes (T) are equal to spendings (G), and the budget constraint of the resdistributing state is : • The optimizing Lagrangian is thus: • And the FOC’s optimal solution is: 푋2 푋1 = 휃1 휃2 훼1 훼0 Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 12
  • 13. II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model Structuring the New Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model • By using the optimal production relation and applying dynamic methods to the budget constraint, the following system is found to express the surplus’ dynamic of both sectors and the dynamic of the income and labor generating sector output’s share : 푣 = 푎1 − 푏1푤 푣 푤 = −푎3 + 푏3푣 − 푐3푢 푤 푢 = − 푎2 − 푏2푣 푢 Where: - represents the dynamic of the income and labor generating sector ’s surplus. - represents the dynamic of the income and labor generating sector output’s share. - represents the dynamic of the strategic sector’s surplus. 푣 = 푎1 − 푏1푤 푣 푤 = −푎3 + 푏3푣 − 푐3푢 푤 푢 = − 푎2 − 푏2푣 푢 • By solving this system a set of solutions are found, these solutions have sinusoidal forms and thus fluctuate. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 13
  • 14. II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model Structuring the New Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model By running simulations of this system, assigning values to the parameters and finding its dynamic solution, the following behavior is found (see graph). It can be seen that the income and labor generating sector’s surplus is increasing over time, whereas (due to the availability’s limitation) strategic sector’s surplus is decreasing over time. 푢푡 푣푡 푤푡 Years Note also that the income and labor generating sector output’s share is increasing over time. Therefore, the new Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model sees the income and labor generating sector as the one that generates sustained economic growth. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 14
  • 15. II. Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model Structuring the New Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model Therefore, the state assign the strategic sector’s surplus to policies: (i) aiming to expand the country's productive base and to industrialize, and (ii) aiming to support private sector through improvements in domestic demand, which will inject dynamism to the economy. With these policies the income and labor generating sector can be developed. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 15
  • 16. CONTENT III. Empirical evidence on the Economic Social Comunitarian Productive Model’s foundations Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 16
  • 17. Distribution, Aggregate Demand and Economic Growth in Bolivia 1950-2012 Distribution, Aggregate Demand and Economic Growth in Bolivia 1950 – 2012 David Quiroz Sillo José Alberto Villegas Gómez Abstract • This paper aims to study the relationships between the distribution, aggregate demand and long-term growth in Bolivia. To do this, the study is based on a Kaleckian model of economic growth since it recognizes the importance of aggregate demand on growth. In this model, a better distribution of the output can have a positive or negative effect on economic growth, capital accumulation and productivity, depending on the relative response of the aggregate demand components and productivity, both define what is called Demand Regime and Productivity Regime. • To estimate the prevailing regimes in Bolivia´s economy, two econometric methodologies are used with data from the period 1950-2012. Initially multivariate behavioral equations are used, subsequently an SVAR is estimated. Both methodologies conclude that Bolivia´s economy has a wages-driven demand regime and a contractionary global regime. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 17
  • 18. Distribution, Aggregate Demand and Economic Growth in Bolivia 1950-2012 Distribution, Aggregate Demand and Economic Growth in Bolivia 1950 - 2012 David Quiroz Sillo José Alberto Villegas Gómez • The results suggest that in Bolivia with an improvement in the distribution of resources benefiting workers (reduction of the profit share), the consumption and demand increase will be greater than the investment disincentive, i.e. better distribution generates higher growth. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 18
  • 19. Distribution, aggregate demand and growth in Bolivia (1950-2012) Estimation of Total’s effect through a SVAR Utilization Productivity Profit share Unemployment rate Accumulated Response of the Profit-share (π) on Accumulated Response of the Profit-share (π on Capital accumulation -0,5% -0,24% Investment Growth Años Años Note.- These two effects are non-significant In Bolivia, a policy that diminishises wages in order to favor competitiviness and benefit entrepreneurs, reduces the aggregate output growth rate. This is due to the fact that lower wages reduces consumption, and this effect is bigger than the increase in investment. Thus, improvements in the distribution of income, accentuate aggregate demand and growth. In Bolivia, an increase of the “profit share” will diminish capital accumulation. A decrease in wages reduces aggregate demand and thus enterprises’ sales, which as diminishes capitalists’ benefits will decrease aggregate investment and output. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 19
  • 20. Commodity prices, fiscal policy and economic growth 2000-2013 Commodity prices, fiscal policy and economic growth 2000-2013 Luis Alberto Arce Catacora and David Quiroz Sillo Abstract • This paper analyzes the effect of international commodity prices’ changes on fiscal variables and the Bolivian output growth in both the short and long term. • For the short-term analysis a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) is estimated, it suggests that an international commodity prices’ shock has a positive impact on tax revenue and gross domestic product; however, the effect on the latter is small. • To study the long-term relationship a cointegration model is estimated following the methodology proposed by Johansen-Juselius. The results show that the main determinant of output in the long-term is public investment, this effect is greater than that of financial deepening. Interestingly, the effect of international commodity prices on growth in the long term is small and not statistically significant. • These results suggest that with proper management (e.g. public investment), the resources coming from the strategic sectors in Bolivia can generate growth and eliminate any external vulnerability to international commodity prices’ changes. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 20
  • 21. CONTENT IV. Macroeconomic Results Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 21
  • 22. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Sustained economic growth despite the global crisis -1.7 -2.6 2.4 Bolivia: Real GDP growth, 1985 – 2013 3.0 (In percentage) Average 1998-2005 3.8 4.6 3.0 % 5.3 1.6 4.3 4.7 4.7 4.4 Average 2006-2013 5.0 5.0 0.4 5.0 % 2.5 1.7 2.5 2.7 4.2 4.4 4.8 4.6 6.1 3.4 4.1 5.2 5.2 6.8 5.6 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(p) 2010(p) 2011(p) 2012(p) 2013(p) 2014 (Trim I) (p) Preliminary Source: National Statistics Institute (INE) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 22
  • 23. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Higher economic growth despite the global crisis Latin America: Real GDP growth (In percentage) AVERAGE 1998 - 2005 AVERAGE 2006 - 2013 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.5 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Costa Rica Cuba Dominican Republic Panama Nicaragua Honduras Chile Guatemala Mexico Peru Ecuador Bolivia El Salvador Latin America and the Caribbean Latin America Brazil Colombia Venezuela Argentina Uruguay Paraguay Haiti Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance 2.4 2.0 1.6 6.8 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 8.9 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Panama Peru Argentina Dominican Republic Uruguay Paraguay Bolivia Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Ecuador Chile Venezuela Nicaragua Latin America Latin America and the Caribbean Guatemala Brazil Honduras Mexico Haiti El Salvador Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 23
  • 24. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Economic growth based on domestic demand Bolivia: Incidence of domestic demand and net exports on GDP 2.5 2.6 2.0 0.4 -2.2 0.5 1999 - 2013(p) (In percentage) Average 1998-2005 Domestic demand 2.2 External demand 0.7 3.5 1.7 -1.8 2.5 2.7 4.5 3.0 -0.3 4.2 4.4 3.3 0.9 6.0 4.8 4.6 2.2 2.6 4.9 Average 2006-2013 Domestic demand 5.4 External demand -0.4 6.1 8.4 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.4 5.2 5.2 8.6 2.3 2.9 6.8 8.2 -2.0 -1.6 -0.3 -2.3 -0.3 -0.3 -3.4 -1.4 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(p) 2009(p) 2010(p) 2011(p) 2012(p) 2013(p) Domestic demand External demand GDP growth (p) Preliminary Source: National Institute of Statistics (INE) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 24
  • 25. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Sustained increase of the economy size and income per capita Bolivia: Nominal and per cápita Gross Domestic Product Bolivia: Nominal Gross Domestic Product 1986 – 2013(p) (Millions of USD) Bolivia: Gross Domestic Product per cápita 1986 – 2013(p) (USD) 9,521 32,000 28,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (p) Preliminary Source: National Institute of Statistics (INE) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance 30,381 2008(p) 2009(p) 2010(p) 2011(p) 2012(p) 2013(p) 1,010 2,757 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(p) 2009(p) 2010(p) 2011(p) 2012(p) 2013(p) Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 25
  • 26. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Records of public investment boosts economic growth Bolivia: Executed public investment by economic sector, 1991-2014* Average 1998 - 2005 USD 572 millions 505 531 583 639 585 500 245 265 285 295 251 187 (Millions of USD) 602 629 221 194 177 177 203 230 222 228 297 326 879 263 Average 2006 - 2013 USD 1,882 millions 2,182 1,521 1,351 1,439 1,005 284 427 475 472 481 551 650 694 725 72 98 122 147 184 232 566 960 551 2,897 743 1,158 810 3,781 1,084 1,503 1,016 4,519 1,144 1,695 1,530 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 PGE Productive Infrastructure Social Multisectoral (*) The datum for 2014 is the amount of planned public investment in the General State Budget Source: Vice Ministry of Public Investment and External Financing (VIPFE) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 26
  • 27. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Public investment financed mostly by internal resources Bolivia: Public investment by funding source, 1998 – 2014* 58 Domestic resources External resources 56 53 52 54 46 64 36 (In percentage) 66 34 63 37 62 69 68 42 44 47 48 38 31 32 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (*) The datum for 2014 is the amount of planned public investment in the General State Budget Source: Vice Ministry of Public Investment and External Financing (VIPFE) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance 72 67 69 73 82 82 28 33 31 27 18 18 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 PGE Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 27
  • 28. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Industrialization of natural resources Industrialization Projects Hydrocarbons Name of the Project Total investment (In millions of USD) Status Río Grande Liquid Separation Plant 183 In operation Gran Chaco Liquid Separation Plant 608 In process Ammonia and Urea Plant 862 In process Propylene and Polypropylene Plant 1,700 In process Ethylene and Polyethylene Plant 1,760 In process Plant pipes, fittings and polyethylene films 14 In process Liquefied Natural Gas - LNG "Virtual Pipeline" 146 In process Name of the Project Total investment (In millions of USD) Status Mining Pilot Plant of Lithium Carbonate and Potassium Chloride- Uyuni 19 In operation Industrial Plants of Lithium Carbonate (Li2CO3) and Potassium Chloride (KCl): Phase II – Uyuni 485 In process Industrialization of Lithium - Phase III - Palca, Potosí 4 In process Ausmelt Furnace’s Construction 39 In process Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 28
  • 29. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Industrialization of natural resources Industrialization Projects Name of the Project Total investment (In millions of USD) Status Food Sector Bolivian Company of Almonds (EBA) 2 In operation Palm Hearth Plant in Shinahota 1 In operation Seed Production Strategic Company 6 In operation Industrial Plant of Herbal Tea (Stevia and Coca) 0.5 In operation Palm hearth Plant in Ivirgarzama 1 In operation Citrus Plant in Caranavi 2 In operation Public Company of Milk (LACTEOSBOL) 6 In operation Citrus Processing Plant in Valle de Sajta 63 In process Apicultural Production Public Company (PROMIEL) 6 In process Fertilizers Company Production Strategic 6 In process Sugar and Derivatives Industrial Plant (EASBA) 215 In process Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 29
  • 30. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Highest total investment by public investment South America: Total investment as percentage of GDP 2005 2013 23.0 22.0 21.6 20.8 20.2 17.9 17.7 17.0 16.2 14.3 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Venezuela Chile Ecuador Argentina Colombia Peru Uruguay Paraguay Brazil Bolivia Source: International Monetary Fund Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance 19.7 19.3 19.2 16.6 28.2 27.9 25.7 24.2 24.0 23.7 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Ecuador Peru Chile Argentina Venezuela Colombia Uruguay Bolivia Brazil Paraguay Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 30
  • 31. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Prudent fiscal administration Bolivia: Fiscal Balance, 1980-2014(p) (As percentage of GDP) -6,4 -22,3 -30,6 -8,3 -6,1 -1,8 -4,7 -8,8 4,5 -2,2 3,2 1,7 1,7 0,1 6,0 0,0 -6,0 -12,0 -18,0 -24,0 -30,0 -36,0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (p) Preliminary, up o July 2014 Source: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance – Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB). Latin American: International Monetary Fund (IMF). Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance 2,0 July 1,8 0,8 0,7 Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 31
  • 32. IV. Macroeconomic Results – The second country with the highest fiscal surplus Latin America: Fiscal Balance (As percentage of GDP) Average 1998-2005 Average 2006-2013 -4.4 -5.1 -2.6 -2.8 -3.2 -1.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 -5.5 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 Chile Ecuador Paraguay Peru Uruguay Colombia Mexico Brazil Argentina Bolivia -2.5 -2.8 -0.5 -1.4 -1.4 -2.9 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 Chile Bolivia Peru Paraguay Ecuador Colombia Uruguay Argentina Brazil Mexico Source: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance – Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB). Latin American: International Monetary Fund (IMF). Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance 2.1 1.8 1.3 0.6 Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 32
  • 33. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Important increments on tax revenues Bolivia: Tax revenues, 1990 - 2013 1,979 4,083 3,079 1,691 1,963 2,325 8,604 7,137 21% 5,947 4,478 3,171 3,351 3,523 5,397 4,659 1,288 6,371 1,740 2,233 5,813 5,366 1,266 1,301 4,100 4,512 402 601 (Millions of USD) Direct Tax to Hydrocarbons IDH Revenues without IDH 760 957 1,254 1,278 1,154 9,000 7,500 6,000 4,500 3,000 1,500 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 2014 Note: In 2009 and 2010 a statistical correction was made because of the repetition in the IUE’s tax payment made by YPFB in 2009. Source: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 33
  • 34. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Fourth place in the tax burden Latin American: Tax Burden 2000 and 2012 (As percentage of GDP) 2000 2012 21.6 21.5 18.8 16.9 14.7 14.6 14.5 13.9 10.1 30.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Brazil Uruguay Argentina Chile Mexico Bolivia Colombia Paraguay Peru Ecuador Source: The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance 20.8 20.2 19.6 19.6 18.1 17.6 26.3 26.0 37.3 36.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Argentina Brazil Uruguay Bolivia Chile Ecuador Colombia Mexico Peru Paraguay Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 34
  • 35. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Public debt reduction to sustainable levels Latin America: Total public debt, 2005 and 2013 (p) (As percentage of GDP) 2005 2013 7 46 39 39 38 35 33 69 87 84 80 0 20 40 60 80 100 Argentina Uruguay Bolivia Brazil Venezuela Mexico Colombia Peru Ecuador Paraguay Chile 24 20 13 13 33 32 50 47 46 66 59 0 20 40 60 80 Brazil Uruguay Venezuela Argentina Mexico Bolivia Colombia Ecuador Peru Paraguay Chile ( p) Preliminary Nota: The most important thresholds are 60% for the Maastricht Treaty (European Union), 50% for CAN (Andean Community of Nations) and 40% for MERCOSUR (Common Trade area of the South). Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Economic Outlook, Abril 2014 Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 35
  • 36. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Solid external profile Bolivia: Current account (% of GDP) 2.0 -4.1 -7.2 -1.2 -4.9 -7.8 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 (p) ]Preliminary Source: Central Bank of Bolivia and International Monetary Fund Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance 1985 - 2013(p) -5.3 1.0 3.7 5.9 11.2 11.9 4.3 3.9 3.3 0.3 7.2 -3.4 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(p) 2012(p) 2013(p) Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 36
  • 37. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Solid external profile South America: Current account (% of GDP) Average 1998 - 2005 Average 2006 - 2013 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 1.2 0.8 7.8 Venezuela Paraguay Argentina Chile Uruguay -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Ecuador Colombia Brazil Bolivia Peru Source: Central Bank of Bolivia and International Monetary Fund Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance -1.5 -1.6 -2.8 Bolivia Venezuela Paraguay Argentina Ecuador Chile Brazil Peru Colombia -3.1 -0.1 1.7 1.1 0.8 6.8 6.1 Uruguay -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 37
  • 38. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Higher foreing investment than in the privatization period Bolivia: Net Foreign Direct Investment 10 13 36 30 35 66 94 1985 - 2013(p) (Millions of USD) PRIVATIZATION PERIOD 372 472 1,024 599 1,008 734 195 83 278 -291 362 508 426 672 1,060 859 1,750 703 674 128 120 122 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (p) 2012 (p) 2013 (p) (p) ]Preliminary Source: Central Bank of Bolivia and Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 38
  • 39. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Second with the highest percentage of FDI received South America: Net Foreign Direct Investment (% of GDP) 2005 2013 -3.1 2.2 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.4 4.7 4.0 3.8 3.2 Uruguay Chile Colombia Peru Argentina South America Brazil Ecuador Venezuela Paraguay Bolivia -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Peru Bolivia Uruguay Colombia Chile Brazil South America Argentina Paraguay Venezuela Ecuador Source: Central Bank of Bolivia and Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance 0.8 0.5 1.8 1.4 2.8 2.8 3.6 3.4 5.8 5.8 5.6 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 39
  • 40. IV. Macroeconomic Results – High levels of reserves Bolivia: Central Bank’s Net International Reserves 1976- 2014* 14,937 14,430 13,927 12,019 9,730 8,580 7,722 5,319 3,178 1,714 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 (Millions of USD) , 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (*) Data for 2014 is up to August 22th Source: Central Bank of Bolivia and Central Banks of each country Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 40
  • 41. IV. Macroeconomic Results – First place on international reserves as percentage of GDP Latin America: International reserves (% of GDP), July 2014 7 6 5 12 0 10 20 30 40 50 Bolivia Uruguay Peru Paraguay Brazil Chile Mexico Colombia Argentina Venezuela Ecuador Source: Central Bank of Bolivia and Central Banks of each country Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance 17 15 15 21 31 30 48 Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 41
  • 42. Jul IV. Macroeconomic Results – Population´s saving capacity has increased Bolivia: Financial System Deposits Source: Financial System’s Supervision Authority (ASFI) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance 1995 - July 2014 (Millions of USD) Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 42
  • 43. IV. Macroeconomic Results – The accounts number is almost four times the 2005´s level Bolivia: Number of Deposits Accounts in the Financial System, by stratification amount, 2005 – July 2014 1,911 1,511 2,240 1,782 (Thousands of accounts) 2,719 2,159 3,479 2,833 4,259 3,528 4,952 4,209 5,623 4,785 6,330 5,423 7,140 7,540 6,101 6,540 129 131 148 162 185 195 219 239 276 259 169 210 266 307 346 348 396 428 494 466 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 jul.-14 Thousands of accounts Higher than USD 2.000.001 Between USD 1.000.001 and USD 2.000.000 Between USD 500.001 and USD 1.000.000 Between USD 200.001 and USD 500.000 Between USD 100.001 and USD 200.000 Between USD 50.001 and USD 100.000 Between USD 30.001 and USD 50.000 Between USD 20.001 and USD 30.000 Between USD 15.001 and USD 20.000 Between USD 10.001 and USD 15.000 Between USD 5.001 and USD 10.000 Between USD 1.001 and USD 5.000 Between USD 501 and USD 1.000 Lower than USD 500 87% Source: Financial System’s Supervision Authority (ASFI) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 43
  • 44. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Upward credit trend due to economic dynamism Bolivia: Financial System Net Credit Portfolio and NPL rate (Millions of USD and percentage) Source: Financial System’s Supervision Authority (ASFI) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance 1995-July 2014 Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 44
  • 45. IV. Macroeconomic Results – Bolivia is the country with the lowest non-performing loan rate Selected Countries: Non-Performing Loans (NPL) Rate (In percentage) 2005 2013 Bolivia Argentina Uruguay Paraguay Chile Ecuador Colombia Brazil United States Mexico 10.1 7.6 5.5 6.3 6.5 2.7 3.5 3.6 0.7 0.9 1.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 United States Chile Mexico Colombia Brazil Uruguay Ecuador Peru Paraguay Argentina Bolivia 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Peru Source: World Bank and Financial System’s Supervision Authority (ASFI) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 45
  • 46. IV. Macroeconomic Results – De-Dollarization contributes to solidity the financial system Bolivia: De-Dollarization of Deposits and Credits, 1995-July 2014 14 13 Deposits Credits (In percentage) 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 10 16 23 36 58 71 46 47 56 64 81 72 89 92 77 78 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 4 8 15 20 35 40 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Percent DOLLARIZED ECONOMY DE-DOLLARIZATION Source: Financial System Supervisory Authority (ASFI) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 46
  • 47. CONTENT V. Social Results Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 47
  • 48. V. Social Results – Unemployment rate reduction 7.2 Bolivia: Urban open unemployment rate 7.5 8.5 1999 – 2013(p) (In percentage) 8.7 8.7 8.1 8.0 7.7 4.4 4.9 3.8 3.2 3.2 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012(p) 2013(p) (p) Preliminary Source: National Statistics Institute (INE) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 48
  • 49. V. Social Results – The lowest unemployment rate Latin America: Unemployment rate (In percentage) 2005 2013(p) 7.6 8.1 8.5 9.2 9.6 9.8 11.6 12.2 12.4 14.3 4.7 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 Mexico Paraguay Bolivia Ecuador Chile Peru Brazil Argentina Uruguay Venezuela Colombia 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Bolivia(*) Ecuador Brazil Mexico Chile Peru Uruguay Argentina Venezuela Paraguay Colombia (p) Preliminary Source: (*) National Statistics Institute (INE); Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance. 10.6 3.2 4.7 5.4 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.7 7.1 7.8 8.1 Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 49
  • 50. V. Social Results – Outstanding extreme poverty reduction Bolivia: Extreme poverty, 1999 – 2013(p) 40.7 45.2 38.8 39.5 (In percentage) 34.5 38.2 37.7 37.7 30.1 26.1 20.9 21.6 18.8 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012(p) 2013(p) (p) Preliminary Source: National Statistics Institute (INE) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 50
  • 51. 28.0 V. Social Results – Bolivia is not anymore the poorest country in the region Latin America: Extreme poverty (In percentage) 2005 2012 18.7 9.7 9.9 10.4 14.2 1.2 1.7 3.1 5.4 6.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Uruguay Argentina Chile(c) Brazil Peru Venezuela Ecuador Colombia Mexico Bolivia(c) Paraguay(c) 32.1 34.7 9.1 10.6 11.6 15.9 17.4 19.0 20.2 3.2 4.1 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 Chile(b) Uruguay Argentina Brazil Mexico(a) Venezuela Peru Ecuador(a) Colombia Paraguay Bolivia(a) (a) Datum for 2004, (b) Datum for 2006, (c) Datum for 2011 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance. Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 51
  • 52. V. Social Results – Greater equity on income distribution Bolivia: Gini Index, 1999 - 2005 (Values between 0 and 1) 0.58 0.63 0.59 0.65 0.63 0.61 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.47 0.45 1999 2000 2001 2002 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012(p) (p) Preliminary Source: National Statistics Institute (INE) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance. 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.50 0.46 0.47 Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 52
  • 53. V. Social Results – Sixth country with better income distribution Latin America: Gini Index (Values between 0 and 1) 2005 2012 0.38 0.41 0.44 0.45 0.47 0.47 0.49 0.50 0.52 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.57 Uruguay Venezuela El Salvador Peru Ecuador Bolivia(c ) Mexico Costa Rica Chile(c ) Domincan Republic Panama(c ) Colombia Paraguay(c) Brazil 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.46 0.47 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.52 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.60 0.61 Uruguay(d) Costa Rica Venezuela El Salvador(b) Peru(d) Chile(a) Paraguay Mexico Panama Ecuador Colombia Domincan Republic Bolivia Brazil (a) Datum for 2006 (b) Datum for 2004 (c) Datum for 2011 (d) Datum for 2007 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance. 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 53
  • 54. V. Social Results – Reduction of the gap between rich and poor Bolivia: Income ratio between the richest 10% and the 113 poorest 10%, 1996-2012 (Frequency) 28 79 128 1996 2005 2012(p) 35 157 46 18 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 National Urban Rural (p) Preliminary Source: Unit Analysis of Social and Economic Policy (UDAPE) information from Household Surveys (EH) National Statistics Institute (INE) Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance. 89 Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 54
  • 55. CONTENT VI. New Bolivia’s international image Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 55
  • 56. VI. New Bolivia’s international image Historic: Standard & Poor's grants a rating "BB" to Bolivia Standard & Poor’s Justification: B-B stable B+ positive B+ stable BB-negative positive stable BB Oct20,2003 May6,2010 May19,2011 Aug22,2011 May18,2012 May15,2014 Fitch Ratings Moody’s B-B positive BB-stable stable B B+ B+ BB-stable Mar17,2004 Sep8,2009 Oct5,2010 Oct18,2011 Oct2,2012 Aug12,2014 Source: Fitch Rating, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance  Sustained economic growth  Permanent fiscal and current account surplus  Decrease of public debt  Creditor international investment position  Record level of international reserves  Increasing economic stability B3 B2 stable B1 positive B1 stable Ba3 Apr16,2003 Sep28,2009 Dec2,2010 Dec12,2011 Jun8,2012 Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 56
  • 57. VI. New Bolivia’s international image South America: Global Competitiveness Index, 2005 and 2013 (Score 1 - 7) 2005 2013 4.09 4.08 4.07 3.95 3.83 3.71 3.59 3.39 3.36 4.84 2 3 4 5 Chile Argentina Brazil Colombia Uruguay Peru Venezuela Ecuador Bolivia Paraguay Source: World Economic Forum Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance 4.61 4.33 4.25 4.19 4.18 4.05 3.84 3.76 3.61 3.35 2 3 4 5 Chile Brazil Peru Colombia Ecuador Uruguay Bolivia Argentina Paraguay Venezuela Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 57
  • 58. VI. New Bolivia’s international image South America: Global Competitiveness Index, Category: Macroeconomic environment, 2005 and 2013 (Score 1 - 7) 2005 2013 5.2 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.8 Chile Ecuador Venezuela Argentina Colombia Peru Paraguay Brazil Bolivia Uruguay 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Source: World Economic Forum Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance 5.8 3.1 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.1 Chile Peru Bolivia Colombia Ecuador Paraguay Brazil Uruguay Argentina Venezuela 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 58
  • 59. VI. New Bolivia’s international image Latin America: The Economic Climate Index (In points) 2005(1) Apr-2014 Jul-2014 140 136 136 130 116 110 108 100 100 92 92 Uruguay Chile Perú Brazil Argentina Latin America 50 100 150 Colombia Paraguay Bolivia Ecuador Mexico 140 136 136 130 116 110 108 100 100 92 92 50 100 150 Bolivia Peru Colombia Paraguay Uruguay Ecuador Mexico Latin America Chile Brazil Argentina 131 113 112 105 104 102 89 84 73 57 55 50 100 150 Colombia Bolivia Peru Paraguay Uruguay Mexico Chile Latin América Ecuador Argentina Brazil (1) October 2005 Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation, Economic Survey of Latin America - November 2007 and the Economic Survey of Latin America May and August 2014 Elaborated by: Ministry of Economy and Public Finance Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 59
  • 60. Thanks… Luis A. Arce Catacora – Minister of Economy and Public Finance Harvard University – September 2014 60