Estimating Life Expectancy  in Archaeological Populations Palaeodemography  And Palaeoepidemiology Joseph R. Krecioch   Ca...
Demography <ul><li>• “ the study of population statistics” (White and Folkens 2005) </li></ul><ul><li>(mortality and birth...
Epidemiology <ul><li>“ concerned with the distribution of disease and death, and with their determinants and consequences ...
Estimating Life Expectancy <ul><li>Even in modern populations, LE is fraught with inconsistencies and uncertainties. </li>...
LE in Archaeology <ul><li>Age estimation of human remains would ideally provide LE of a population. </li></ul><ul><li>Age ...
Methods  <ul><li>First, determine ages osteologically </li></ul><ul><li>Drop individuals under 20-23yo </li></ul><ul><li>A...
Ageing Skeletal Remains <ul><li>Until Old Adult stage, ageing is based upon generation; after Adult stage, bone degenerati...
 
Auricular Surface <ul><li>Surface Texture </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Fine </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Coarse </li><...
Storey’s  comparison of Statistical methods
Epidemiological Transitions <ul><ul><ul><li>Post-Neolithic:  Agriculture and Sedentarism </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><...
Transitions in the Balearics <ul><li>Pre-Talaiotic </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Epipalaeolithic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chalco...
Further Reading <ul><li>Gage, Timothy (2005)  Are Modern Environments Really Bad for Us? :  Revisiting the Demographic and...
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Session no. 1, 2011: Estimating Life Expectancy in Archaeological Populations, by

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Session no. 1, 2011: Estimating Life Expectancy in Archaeological Populations, by

  1. 1. Estimating Life Expectancy in Archaeological Populations Palaeodemography And Palaeoepidemiology Joseph R. Krecioch Cave & Necropolis Session 1 2011
  2. 2. Demography <ul><li>• “ the study of population statistics” (White and Folkens 2005) </li></ul><ul><li>(mortality and birth rates; population size, growth, and density; life expectancy, etc) </li></ul><ul><li>• Palaeodemography: “vital statistics of past populations” (Brothwell 1981) </li></ul>
  3. 3. Epidemiology <ul><li>“ concerned with the distribution of disease and death, and with their determinants and consequences in population groups” (Omran 1971) </li></ul><ul><li>Palaeoepidemiology not only attempts to describe disease and mortality in prehistoric populations, but also informs future trends. Depends upon osteoarchaeology and palaeopathology. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Estimating Life Expectancy <ul><li>Even in modern populations, LE is fraught with inconsistencies and uncertainties. </li></ul><ul><li>High infant mortality significantly reduces life expectancy, so LE changes according to age </li></ul><ul><li>Famines, wars, epidemics also contribute to misleading LEs </li></ul><ul><li>If LE is ’38’, it doesn’t mean 19 year-olds were ‘middle-aged’ </li></ul>
  5. 5. LE in Archaeology <ul><li>Age estimation of human remains would ideally provide LE of a population. </li></ul><ul><li>Age estimation has been thought unreliable for ages above 50 or 60 years </li></ul><ul><li>Archaeological sample or site does not imply a once living ‘community’ or population </li></ul>
  6. 6. Methods <ul><li>First, determine ages osteologically </li></ul><ul><li>Drop individuals under 20-23yo </li></ul><ul><li>Apply statistics: Bayesian methods </li></ul><ul><li>Newer statistical methods give different LEs </li></ul>
  7. 7. Ageing Skeletal Remains <ul><li>Until Old Adult stage, ageing is based upon generation; after Adult stage, bone degeneration gives clues to age. </li></ul><ul><li>Most important for older age estimation is the pubic symphysis and auricular surfaces </li></ul><ul><li>(Lovejoy et al 1985; Buckberry and Chamberlain 2002) </li></ul>
  8. 9. Auricular Surface <ul><li>Surface Texture </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Fine </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Coarse </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Dense </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Microporosity </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Surface pores <1mm </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Macroporosity </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Surface pores >1mm </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Apical Changes </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>lipping </li></ul></ul></ul>
  9. 10. Storey’s comparison of Statistical methods
  10. 11. Epidemiological Transitions <ul><ul><ul><li>Post-Neolithic: Agriculture and Sedentarism </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Big drop from Mesolithic to Neolithic </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Large increase Neolithic to Copper Age </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Smaller increases Copper to Bronze/Iron </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>European Industrialization and urbanization </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>17 th to 18 th Centuries: Drastic declines in LE </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  11. 12. Transitions in the Balearics <ul><li>Pre-Talaiotic </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Epipalaeolithic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chalcolithic </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Talaiotic </li></ul><ul><li>Roman </li></ul><ul><li>Pre-Arab Transition </li></ul><ul><li>Arab… </li></ul>
  12. 13. Further Reading <ul><li>Gage, Timothy (2005) Are Modern Environments Really Bad for Us? : Revisiting the Demographic and Epidemiologic Transitions. AJPA 48:96-117 </li></ul><ul><li>Konigsberg ande Frankenberg (2002) Deconstructing Death in Palaeodemography. AJPA 117:297-309 </li></ul><ul><li>Roksandic and Armstrong (2011), Using the Life History Model to Set the Stage(s) of Growth and Senescence in Bioarchaeology and Paleodemography. AJPA (online Perspective) </li></ul>

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