COP19 - Climate change mitigation in emerging economies: From potentials to actions

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This presentation was given during a side event at COP19 in Warsaw "GHG mitigation around the globe: Potentials, instruments and ways towards implementation".

Combining results of two projects, the event presented potentials for GHG mitigation around the globe and national strategies, activities and barriers to their implementation in emerging economies. It illustrated how global sectoral targets can contribute to reducing emissions.

The presentation was held by Hanna Fekete, consultant at Ecofys.

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COP19 - Climate change mitigation in emerging economies: From potentials to actions

  1. 1. Climate change mitigation in emerging economies: From potentials to actions Side event COP 19 19 November 2013 Florian Mersmann, Wuppertal Institute Marion Vieweg, Climate Analytics Hanna Fekete, Ecofys
  2. 2. Research questions and approach 1st report: >How ambitious are the pledges of the different emerging economies? > Pledges compared to recent trends (BAU) > Pledges compared to mitigation potential > Pledges compared to comparable efforts based on equity principles >How do the pledges and mitigation potential relate to the global emissions pathway needed to limit global temperature increase to 2°C? Current report: >How well are countries set up to tap identified mitigation potentials and thus achieve their pledges? > Institutionally > In defining low carbon strategies > In implementing NAMAs and other policies and measures >Which barriers exist to fully tap potentials and where can international support help to overcome these?
  3. 3. Institutional set-up for climate change > GHG mitigation recognised as cross-cutting issue > Main responsibles: Environment ministries, involvement of relevant sector ministries > Set-ups vary in: – Role of high-level government: hierarchy – Intuitional bodies for policy coordination – Stakeholder involvement: Regional governments, experts, civil society, businesses etc. – Oversight and ownership of responsibilities
  4. 4. Institutional set-up for climate change: South Africa
  5. 5. Strategies for GHG mitigation > All six countries have developed strategies that are related to climate change mitigation, although they are not necessarily labelled as ‘low carbon’ strategies > Very different approaches to strategy development in the analysed countries - from inclusive stakeholder processes to top down processes > Different levels of embedding of strategies in ‘mainstream’ development and growth strategies > Most countries have integrated mitigation and adaptation strategies with varying focus > Mitigation strategies largely address those areas with the largest potentials - with some gaps
  6. 6. Policies and actions for GHG mitigation > Translation of strategies into concrete policies and actions is at very different stages in the six countries – Often individual sectors are more advanced, mostly the ones with the largest potentials – Effectiveness of activities can often not yet be evaluated because policies are still under development or have just been implemented > Some of the countries are frontrunners in various fields – Mexico: implementation of the first financed NAMA – Brazil: National funds for climate action – China + South Korea: establishment of emissions trading systems
  7. 7. Focus of NAMAs Focus of policies and measures Low end of pot ental i 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Hi gh end of pot ental i i CO2 ssi on Reducti of non- em i ons from lvestock cul CO2 ssi on Reducti of non- em i ons from agri tural l sois on Decrease deforestati on /afforestati Re- nabl ofuel n l ngs Use of sustai e bi s i buidi i ci Effi ency of applances ng Low energy housi tch n Fuelsw i i transport n m ci Effi ency i provem ents i transport ft M odalshi ssi CO2 on Reducti of non- process em i ons ssi ons Reducti of em i ons from w aste and w astew ater anni Integrated urban pl ng l s n ndustry tch Fuelsw i to other fossi fuel i i n ndustry nabl ofueli i Use of sustai e bi n ndustry Carbon capture and storage i i on ve ternati producti routes Al ci Energy effi ency of processes l ssi ti Decrease of fugi ve em i ons from oi and gas n nabl oenergy i energy suppy Use of sustai e bi y es n bi Non- o renew abl i energy suppl ear Increase use of nucl energy y l n tch Fuelsw i to other fossis i energy suppl y n Carbon capture and storage i energy suppl y n ned Com bi heat and pow er i energy suppl stri on osses Decrease of di buti l ants ci Effi ency of pow er pl n on n Reducti i M tCO2e/a i 2020 Example - Mexico
  8. 8. Remaining barriers to effective mitigation > Example: Energy efficiency of industrial processes in China Potential in Coverage as 2020 priority in MtCO2e/a* national strategy and targets Policies to tap potential Remaining barriers Opportunities for international support 120 - 570 - Top-1 000/ TOP10 000 programme, - Closure of small, inefficient plants - Top-down setting of targets - Lack of enforcement - Lack of capacity and access to capital especially in small companies Sharing of best-practice regarding benchmarking in industry Focus in FYP, Climate action plan of the industrial field
  9. 9. Identified challenges > Broad dissemination of knowledge on mitigation opportunities – Creation of knowledge on opportunities – Enabling finance solutions – Integration in other planning – Enabling technology solutions adapted to local circumstances > Improvement of quality and availability of technologies – Provision of attractive alternative to conventional patterns – Insurance of environmental integrity > Closer cooperation of sectors and of government levels – Coherent and comprehensive implementation of high level targets – Synergies in planning, implementing and monitoring projects
  10. 10. Where can international support help? > Targeted expert training, knowledge networks and information clearing houses > Support of tailor-made solutions and learning from good practice > Financial instruments to decrease risk > Strengthening of UNFCCC institutions for technology, finance and capacity
  11. 11. Key conclusions from qualitative analysis > All countries have built up institutional capacity and coordination as well as MRV expertise over the last years > All countries have defined strategies for low carbon development, although the level of implementation varies between countries, but also within countries between sectors > Countries share a clear deficit in broad dissemination of information especially in sectors where a large number of stakeholders need to be involved Brazil China India Mexico South Africa South Korea Forestry sector implementation well advanced but recent changes make outlook difficult. Frontrunner in establishing national funds. Strategies and actions are well advanced, coherent and tackle relevant sectors. Further dissemination of knowledge and awareness needed Ambitious strategies for renewable energies. Additional human resources could support stronger implementation Examplatory comprehensive institutional and strategic setup. Past implementation slow but further action is under preparation. Ambitious political framework, but implementation lagging. Carbon tax under development Strong topdown approach by former administration, commitment of current administration not yet clear. Ambitious ETS design, but not yet finalised
  12. 12. Thank you for your attention! Contacts Hanna Fekete, h.fekete@ecofys.com Florian Mersmann, florian.mersmann@wupperinst.org Marion Vieweg, marion.vieweg@climateanalytics.org Full reports are available online Emerging economies - potentials, pledges and fair shares of greenhouse gas reduction, April 2012: http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/emergingeconomies-potentials-pledges-fair-shares Climate change mitigation in emerging economies: From potentials to actions, November 2013: http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/climate-changemitigation-in-emerging-economies
  13. 13. Key conclusions from pledge and potential analysis > Immediate action is necessary by both developed and emerging economies: With every year delay in action, the reduction potential by 2020 diminishes > Support from developed countries is needed: For some countries, the mitigation potential goes significantly beyond what the results of various effort sharing approaches imply > Data availability is low and uncertainty is high making it difficult to evaluate and compare countries. Brazil China India Mexico South Africa South Korea Level of ambition of pledge unclear due to high uncertainty of BAU and underlying assumptions on forestry Pledge less ambitious than some effort sharing approaches; likely to be overachieved with national policies Pledge close to BAU but in line with effort sharing approaches; likely to be overachieved Pledge ambitious against potential and effort sharing approaches Pledge ambitious against potential and effort sharing approaches, but uncertainty range limits evaluation Pledge ambitious against most effort sharing approaches; limited information on potential

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