Concepts & country specific strategies for the post-2012 carbon market


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Despite its successes, the current situation of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is characterised by very low demand for international carbon credits.Ecofys was contracted by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety in cooperation with TÜV SÜD to evaluate and analyse the status of CDM projects facing such difficulties. This presentation refers to interim results of the research project "Concepts and country specific strategies for the post-2012 carbon market”. Carsten Warnecke, Senior Consultant International Climate Policies at Ecofys, presented it at the Carbon Expo 2014 in Cologne, Germany.

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Concepts & country specific strategies for the post-2012 carbon market

  1. 1. Concepts and country specific strategies for the post-2012 carbon market BMUB Side Event: Market Based Mechanisms – Taking stock of the portfolio and looking towards new instruments Carbon Expo 2014, Cologne Carsten Warnecke 29.05.2014
  2. 2. © ECOFYS | | Content Interim results of research project: “Concepts and country specific strategies for the post-2012 carbon market” > CDM portfolio analysis > Duration: Aug 2013 – Sept 2015 > Partner: TÜV SÜD This presentation: > Background > Objectives > Approach > First Insights 29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
  3. 3. © ECOFYS | | Background > Lack of international ambition and record lows in CER demand lead to substantial challenges for CDM projects – Implemented projects may no longer be able to cover their operational costs and/or transaction costs – Projects might not be implemented, shut down or modified for continuation outside the CDM > Results in loss of human capacity and trust > Ongoing decoupling from the international regime complicates transfer in future systems > Existing project-based mitigation activities are individually threatened > Efficient and effective support requires tailored approaches 29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
  4. 4. © ECOFYS | | Objectives > Empirical analysis of the situation and current decision-making processes of CDM project activities > Creation of a previously not existing source of information on the level of project-types and host countries > Basis with great value for type-specific conclusions and recommendations > Identification of circumstances under which projects are dis- continued and fall back to the pre-CDM situation (emitting GHG) > Identification of impacts by already existing or emerging national or international support and policy schemes > Disclosure of projects which could be reactivated or continued > Input to concepts and country specific strategies for further cooperation with regards to international carbon markets 29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
  5. 5. © ECOFYS | | Approach 29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke Output: Conclusions & Recommendations Definition of population (countries & project types) Selection of project cases (sampling) Compilation of project status database / Questionnaire Status inquiry / evaluation of projects (Analysis of data sources, direct communication, secondary contacts) In-country trips / on-side verification Analysis Establishing a contact database Periodic evaluation phases ∑ > 7,000 projects 1,311 projects for evaluation => 5,682 projects in population
  6. 6. © ECOFYS | | Approach > Stratified sampling for technologies and host countries > Desk-research of publicly available information > Status inquiry / evaluation of projects in the sample via – Web-based questionnaires (English, Spanish, Chinese) – Telephone interviews – Full evaluation started in March > Starting points are Focal Point Entities for CDM projects – Often outdated or incomplete – Significant reduction in staff – ERPA terminated no updated MOC > Manual closing of gaps with initial PDD contact details and further research > Inquiries involve all relevant stakeholders (developer, buyer, consultants, DOEs, DNAs) 29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
  7. 7. © ECOFYS | | First insights > Caution should be taken in the interpretation of the data presented > Current data cannot be representative for the entire sample > Most active projects answer first while confirmation for inactive projects is difficult to get > This early stage of the evaluation does not allow an accurate analysis (35% completed) > High quality and completeness of responses > Current response rate differs per country and technology type and is up to 75% 29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke Who has provided the data?
  8. 8. © ECOFYS | | What share of projects is up and running? 29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke 67% of responding projects are still or already fully implemented 81% of implemented projects claim to be in regular operation Corresponding to ~55% of responding projects > Expectation that the share of implemented and operational projects remains the same or slightly increases (12 months period)
  9. 9. © ECOFYS | | How do projects react to the current situation? 29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke Changes to the verification & issuance approach? > 14% of projects have stopped an operating monitoring system (hydro 3%; LFG 20%)
  10. 10. © ECOFYS | | Why do project activities continue? > Various reasons beyond CER revenues > Only 22% state having their initial ERPA > Almost 50% stated to have stopped CER marketing or don‘t know how to marketing CERs currently 29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke Despite the recent drop in CER prices, what are the reasons to continue with the CDM GHG mitigation activity?
  11. 11. © ECOFYS | | Support 29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke What type of immediate support is required for project continuation in addition to financial support? What type of support has the GHG mitigation project received on national level?
  12. 12. © ECOFYS | | … > … no conclusions yet > The analysis is ongoing > Thanks to all that contributed already > Good chance for stakeholders and participants to draw the real picture and create attention to the real needs of the market 29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
  13. 13. © ECOFYS | | Thank you. Ecofys: Carsten Warnecke Contact: More information at evaluating-the-state-of-cdm- projects/ 29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke