Below 2°C or 1.5°C depends on rapid action from all countries

598 views

Published on

This Climate Action Tracker update re-evaluates the required level of global and regional levels of ambition for 2020, 2025 and 2030 to limit warming to below 2°C or 1.5°C, based on a new analysis of the IPCC AR5 emissions database. The update also looks at past and current global decarbonisation trends and related to that at recent policy developments in the USA, which have announced to reduce emissions from the electricity sector. This presentation was held during a side event of the UNFCCC session in Bonn, June 2014.

Published in: Technology
  • Be the first to comment

Below 2°C or 1.5°C depends on rapid action from all countries

  1. 1. Below 2°C or 1.5°C degrees depends on rapid action from both Annex I and Non-Annex I countries Side-event: Bonn, 7 June 2014
  2. 2. Outline ▶ 1.5°C and 2°C emissions pathways Michiel Schaeffer, Climate Analytics ▶ Decarbonisation Marie Lindberg, Climate Analytics ▶ Effort-sharing Hanna Fekete, Ecofys ▶ Country Updates Hanna Fekete, Ecofys and Louise Jeffery, PIK
  3. 3. What does it take to keep warming below 2°C and 1.5°C? • New analysis of scenarios assessed by IPCC WGIII AR5, including those in the WGIII scenario database • Analyse emissions reductions required to meet climate goals • Scenario analysis method: • Ensure emissions fall within historical limits up to 2010 • This excludes a few studies whose emissions diverge significantly below or above historic emissions • Limit below 2°C with high probability • 85% or greater likelihood • IPCC based on 430-480 ppm CO2eq range • Most (90% of total) likely (>66%) probability of below 2°C • This scenario is the same that reduces warming to at, or below, 1.5°C in 2100 with about 50% probability
  4. 4. What does it take to keep warming below 2°C and 1.5°C? • Total GHG emissions would need to be zero between 2060 and 2080, and likely negative thereafter • About one in ten chance of exceeding 2°C • Contrast with IPCC WGIII 430-480 ppm CO2eq scenario range where GHG emissions eventually have to decline towards zero by 2100 • One in three or greater chance of exceeding 2°C
  5. 5. What does it take to keep warming below 2° C and 1.5° C? • The IPCC AR5 warns that “Delays in mitigation through 2030 or beyond could substantially increase mitigation costs in the decades that follow and the second-half of the century” • Delay of reductions to 2020 in ‘likely’ 2°C pathway increases costs by roughly 40% over 2030-2100 (AR5) • High-probability 2°C and 1.5°C pathways require low energy demand and immediate action – lack of data on possibility and implications of delay
  6. 6. Timeline for global GHG emissions to peak and decline towards zero for 2°C and 1.5°C
  7. 7. Timeline for global CO2 emissions to peak and decline towards zero for 2°C and 1.5°C • ‘Likely below’ (>66% probability) 2°C pathway requires full decarbonisation of energy sector by around 2060 • High probability 2°C pathway, has zero CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industry early as 2045 and no later than 2065 • Negative thereafter
  8. 8. Global CO2 emissions decline towards zero by mid- century for high probability 2°C pathway and 1.5°C
  9. 9. Reversal of current recarbonisation is critical From 2000-2010, the energy sector saw a reversal of the decarbonisation trend that took place over the preceding 30 years from 1970 - 2000. Source: Climate Action Tracker calculation based on numbers from IEA 2012
  10. 10. Carbon intensity for likely 2°C pathway Carbon intensity rates will have to decrease rapidly in the coming decades: Decreasing by -3% annually in the 2030s and close to this level through the 2040s, before gradually alleviating and decreasing by -1.6% annually in the 2050s. - 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 MTCO2EJ Carbon Intensity Historical - 2000-2011 Median Values 5th Percen le 95th Percen le Linear (Historical - 2000-2011) Source: Climate Action Tracker calculation based on numbers from IPCC AR5
  11. 11. Renewable energy: good news for decarbonisation • Remarkable trend seen in renewable energy the last two years • In 2012, renewables made up just over half of total net additions to electric generating capacity from all sources in 2012. • The effect on global GHG emissions from increased renewables is still leveled out by increased use of coal and rising energy consumption. • Still, this could be the start of a new positive trend paving the way to a full decarbonisation of the energy sector
  12. 12. Example: Carbon intensity for the USA • Over the past ten years, there has been a substantial decline in CO2 emissions in the US energy sector. • The decline corresponds to a 15% decrease in carbon intensity from 2002 to 2012 (about 1.4% per annum improvement), • primarily as a result of a fuel switch from coal to gas. • The new policy implies an economy-wide decarbonisation rate of about 0.9% per annum, significantly lower than that achieved in the last decade. • This is not as fast as is needed for a 2°C decarbonisation pathway, and could therefore mean an actual deterioration of the current decarbonisation rate
  13. 13. Example: Carbon intensity for the USA historically and under different scenario projections Source: Climate Action Tracker calculation based Cat update 2013
  14. 14. Global GHG emissions towards zero for 2°C and 1.5°C ~ -30%
  15. 15. Sharing the reductions in 2030 www.climateactiontracker.org ~ -30% GHGemissionsin2030relativeto2010levels -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Annex I Non-Annex I OECD 1990 EITs LAM MAF ASIA
  16. 16. Sharing the reductions in 2030 www.climateactiontracker.org -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Annex I Non-Annex I OECD 1990 EITs LAM MAF ASIA Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost ~ -30% GHGemissionsin2030relativeto2010levels
  17. 17. -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Annex I Non-Annex I OECD 1990 EITs LAM MAF ASIA Sharing the reductions in 2030 www.climateactiontracker.org Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost ~ -30% GHGemissionsin2030relativeto2010levels Average Average Average Average Average Average Average
  18. 18. -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Annex I Non-Annex I OECD 1990 EITs LAM MAF ASIA Sharing the reductions in 2030 www.climateactiontracker.org Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost Globalleastcost ~ -30% GHGemissionsin2030relativeto2010levels Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Equalcumpercap Equalcumpercap Equalcumpercap Equalcumpercap Equalcumpercap Equalcumpercap Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Equalcumpercap
  19. 19. Sharing the reductions in 2025 www.climateactiontracker.org -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Globalleastcost Average Equalcumpercap Capability Annex I Annex I OECD 1990 EITs LAM MAF ASIA GHGemissionsin2025relativeto2010levels ~ -30% Non-
  20. 20. Sharing the reductions - Summary www.climateactiontracker.org • Annex I countries will need to reduce emissions beyond global average, for some approaches significantly • Trading of emission allowances necessary as expected developed country emission reductions of developed countries go beyond mitigation potentials
  21. 21. China: substantial emission increase even with potential absolute cap • Personal statement by high level official on absolute caps starting in 2016, 20-25% non-fossil energy and peaking emissions at 11 Gt in 2030. • Potential emission targets follow current ambition trends • Non-fossil energy target may go beyond this 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 TotalGHGemissions[MtCO2e/a] Current policy projections (CAT assessment) high/low Peaking in 2030 25% non-fossil in 2030 Pledge pathway (45%, CAT assessment) Historic emissions, incl. LULUCF
  22. 22. US: New regulation important but insufficient step • New regulation aims to reduce GHG emissions from the electricity sector by 30% below 2005 by 2030 • First comprehensive federal regulation of power sector and positive development beyond current emissions projections • Not sufficient to reach 2020 pledge, nor compatible with US’ long-term target or 2°C
  23. 23. Mexico: New RE target as step to 2024 objectives • Target for 2024 (35% of electricity generation) in General Law on Climate Change • Interim target for 2018 to increase RE to 33% of total capacity • Implies relevant reduction below baseline and stabilizes current emission levels of electricity sector, more needed to achieve pledge 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 TotalGHGemissions[MtCO2e/a] Reference level for pledge according to National Strategy Pledge pathway (CAT assessment) 2013 current policy projections (CAT assessment, low) Updated current policy projections including RE targets (CAT assessment) Historic emissions, incl. LULUCF
  24. 24. Japan: Future energy-mix still uncertain • New ‘Strategic Energy Plan’ released in April 2014 • Nuclear energy supply will be restarted when given approval by nuclear regulation authority, subject to local vote • All energy supply options still under consideration; coal is “now being re-evaluated as an important base-load power supply”
  25. 25. Australia: Recommended to increase ambition by CCA www.climateactiontracker.org • Current government continuing with repeal of existing climate legislation • Funds reserved for Direct Action Plan are insufficient to achieve 5% reduction target (Source: Reputex) • Australian Climate Change Authority recommends: • Raising ambition of the 2020 target to a 15% reduction below 2000 by 2020. • Setting a 40-60% reduction target by 2030 • Using surplus from CP1 to increase 2020 target by another 4% • Renewable Energy Target • Current target: ~20% electricity from renewables by 2020 • Currently under review (due mid-2014) • Likely to be reduced or cut
  26. 26. Australia: CCA recommendations
  27. 27. BACKGROUND SLIDES www.climateactiontracker.org
  28. 28. Global emissions pathway to 2°C and 1.5°C for 2020, 2025, 2030, 2050 and 2100

×