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18. Satellite, Yields and Management - Leander Campbell

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The behind the scenes of today’s satellite imagery technology and what it can do for your farm. Leander Campbell, AAFC Ottawa, Chris Olbach, Corteva Agriscience and Alex Whitley, Taranis

Published in: Food
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18. Satellite, Yields and Management - Leander Campbell

  1. 1. Forecasting Canadian Crop Yields …with Satellites! Forecasting Canadian Crop Yields …with Satellites! @LeanderCampbell (AAFC-Ottawa) #EOCC19 @LeanderCampbell (AAFC-Ottawa) #EOCC19
  2. 2. Internal AAFC system that produces regional & national crop yield forecasts during & shortly after the growing season. Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19 • Starting in the 2013, an experimental outlook report was delivered to a group of selected “beta” users for evaluation. • Outlook reports are released around the middle of July, August, September & October (for soybean & corn only). 2018 Forecasted Crops: Spring Wheat, Durum, Canola, Barley, Oats, Flaxseed, Lentils, Soybean, Corn for Grain
  3. 3. @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19 Current CCYF Operational Scale and Input Data Climate Data: Tmax, Tmin and Precip. EO Data: AVHRR NDVI (1987- present) Historical Yield: Census Agricultural Region (CAR) Crop Mask: By crop Soil Information: By station Current CCYF Operational Scale & Input Data
  4. 4. • Process based Versatile Soil Moisture Budget (VSMB) model: to generate agroclimate indices from climate, crop and soil data • Statistical algorithms for predictor selection, model building, data generation and probability forecast. A Simplified Look at the CCYF Methodology @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19 Cdn Water Resource Journal Vol. 35(2): 187–208 (2010) Hayashi et al
  5. 5. Example Output of the CCYF – Wheat Predicted 80% confidence interval range: 19.7 - 23.8 million/t or 724 – 875 million/bu @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
  6. 6. 6 @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
  7. 7. @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
  8. 8. @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
  9. 9. 9 @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
  10. 10. @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
  11. 11. @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
  12. 12. FORECASTED 2018 CROP YIELD & PRODUCTION Summary Table @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
  13. 13. • Demands for early season yield and production estimates from producers, commodity brokers, grain transporters and government policy makers. • Statistics Canada (STC), desire to address some issues associated with traditional survey-based yield estimates:  Heavy questionnaire burden on farmers  Human-related biases  Short lead time MOTIVATION – Why do this? @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
  14. 14. Comparison of National Yield Estimates (AAFC & STC) 2018 Growing Season (Yields are in bushels/acre except for Lentils which are in 10 X pounds/acre) Spring Wheat Canola Oats Durum Wheat Soybeans Barley Corn for Grain Flax Lentils @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
  15. 15. Who Looks at this Information? Groups that are currently on the CCYF Beta Distribution List @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19 AAFC Science & Technology Branch Strategic Policy Branch Market & Industry Services Branch Programs Branch STC University Scientists Provincial Govt At least 1 provincial recipient in each province except BC, NL GoC Departments Private Industry International Orgs Scientific research; Operations International trade Risk Management; Innovation Policy development All beta users provide feedback to aid in creating a more robust product in the future
  16. 16. What’s Next for the CCYF? @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19 • Further investigate results at provincial and CAR levels to find regional patterns in model performance. • Test other combinations of the datasets to find the best option for each crop. • Work out a near real time data acquisition and processing flow to meet operational needs.
  17. 17. Leander.Campbell@canada.ca @LeanderCampbell THANK YOU Questions / Comments?

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