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# 04 - Risk analysis - ESTIEM Lean Six Sigma Green Belt Course

These slides are part of the ESTIEM Lean Six Sigma Green Belt course which also includes 13hr of video by Gregory H. Watson.

These slides are part of the ESTIEM Lean Six Sigma Green Belt course which also includes 13hr of video by Gregory H. Watson.

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### 04 - Risk analysis - ESTIEM Lean Six Sigma Green Belt Course

1. 1. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Risk analysis for publication 1
2. 2. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org It’s Feedback time! 2 Persons giving feedback Link to the feedback form (can be found on Schoology and WhatsApp) Instructor to give feedback toPersons giving feedback INSTRUCTOR 1 INSTRUCTOR 2
3. 3. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org What is the Y measure? The training today will comprise three phases Fishbone Potential Problem Analysis (PPA) 1 2 3 3
4. 4. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org What do you remember about DMAIC? Project Charter SIPOC EDA VA vs. NVA DEFINE Deployment Diagram Identifying the Bottleneck MEASURE 4
5. 5. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Fishbone Diagram and PPA as part of the Measure phase Fishbone Diagram Deployment Diagram MEASURE PPA Measure, Analyze & Improve 5 Identifying the Bottleneck
6. 6. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org What methods will we use today? Defining the Y measure Fishbone diagram Potential Problem Analysis 6
7. 7. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org What is the definition of the Y measure ? 7
8. 8. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Y = f(x) 8
9. 9. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Characteristics of a good catapult Shoots fast Low Variation Hits the target 9
10. 10. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Why is it important to understand what is the Y measure of the process? Why is it important to understand what the x measures of the process are? 10
11. 11. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Next method Fishbone diagram! Defining the Y measure Fishbone diagram Potential Problem Analysis 11
12. 12. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org What is the purpose of doing a Fishbone diagram? It serves as a long list of possible factors (x’s of the process) affecting the Y
13. 13. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Fishbone Diagram 13 Desired output
14. 14. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Have you heard of the 7M categories? Can you remember them all? 14
15. 15. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org 7M categories ▪ Measurements ▪ Material ▪ Methods ▪ Manpower ▪ Machinery ▪ Mother Nature ▪ Money 15
16. 16. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Fishbone Diagram 16 Materials Methods Machinery Mother Nature Measurement Manpower Money Desired output
17. 17. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Can you think of other methods to list the factors that could possibly affect the Y? 17
18. 18. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Time to work… 18
19. 19. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org SPONSOR MESSAGE 19
20. 20. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Sometimes the items are labelled as controllable (C) or noise (N) What do these terms mean? 20
21. 21. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Sometimes the items are labelled as controllable (C) or noise (N) Why do we distinguish between the two? 21
22. 22. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org SPONSOR MESSAGE 22
23. 23. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org In which phase of the DMAIC process should you use the Fishbone diagram? 23
24. 24. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Fishbone is often created in the Measure phase but used throughout the DMAIC. 1) When suck – Helps to find a new approach. 2) New things can come up later in the DMAIC - Add them 24
25. 25. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Ask why 5 or as many times as needed, to identify the possible root Are you familiar with 5 why’s technique? 25
26. 26. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Let’s think about the Method 5 Why’s 26 It is to warm when distributed Thermostat is broken Cooling is varying Not enough maintenance Ice cream melts too fast Cooling has to be adjusted manually No maintenance planned Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? This causes ? This causes ? This causes ? This causes ? This causes ? This causes ?
27. 27. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Next we’ll jump to PPA Defining the Y measure Fishbone diagram Potential Problem Analysis 27
28. 28. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Which tools you know can be helpful to understand the potential risks? Deployment Diagram Fishbone Potential Problem Analysis (PPA) EDA 28
29. 29. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Often the different risks are linked – there is often one risk that causes several others 29 Risk / Problem Likely causes Effects
30. 30. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Have you heard about FMEA (Failure Mode Effective Analysis)? FMEA is a widely used methodology for risk analysis that was developed in the 1950s 30
31. 31. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org In FMEA Risk Priority Number can be calculated Failure Mode Severity Occurrence Detection RPN A 4 5 10 200 B 4 8 2 64 C 9 2 1 18 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 SEVERITY O C C U R R A N C E B C Risk Priority Number (RPN) = S * O * D Which failure mode has the biggest impact? A 31
32. 32. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org In the ESTIEM Lean Six Sigma Green Belt course we teach the Potential Problem Analysis which is a developed version of the FMEA 32
33. 33. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org PLAN/ ACTIONS/TA SKS PROBLEMS EFFECTS LIKELY CAUSES SEV OCC PREVENTIVE ACTIONS CONTINGENT ACTIONS TRIGGERS FOR CONTINGENT 33 Potential Problem Analysis (PPA)
34. 34. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org PLAN/ ACTIONS/T ASKS PROBLEMS EFFECTS LIKELY CAUSES SEV OCC PREVENTIVE ACTIONS CONTINGENT ACTIONS TRIGGERS FOR CONTINGENT 34 Potential Problem Analysis (PPA) We are going to focus on this part now
35. 35. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org An example of filling PPA 35 Plan / Action / Task Problem Effects likely causes Pulling the catapult arm Finger slips Ball does not fly as long as it could Wet finger Shaking hands
36. 36. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Time to work… 36
37. 37. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org SPONSOR MESSAGE 37
38. 38. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Did you find problems linked to each other? 38
39. 39. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org PLAN/ ACTIONS/T ASKS POTENTIAL PROBLEMS EFFECTS LIKELY CAUSES SEV OCC Potential Problem Analysis (PPA) 39
40. 40. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Risks are often categorized from 1-10 (10 highest) How would categorize (1-10) the risk: The catapult is instable 40
41. 41. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Don’t start by voting on the number values… 41 Define the scale Fill in the risk values Prioritize the risks
42. 42. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org If possible, use data! 42
43. 43. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Example of the severity table 43
44. 44. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Example of an occurrence table 44
45. 45. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Matrix can be helpful to visualize the prioritizing process for risk Severity Occurrence 45
46. 46. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Excel is a good tool to create a PPA Potential problem Effect Likely causes Severity Occurance 46
47. 47. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Time to work… 47
48. 48. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org SPONSOR MESSAGE 48
49. 49. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org PLAN/ ACTIONS/T ASKS POTENTIAL PROBLEMS EFFECTS LIKELY CAUSES SEV OCC PREVENTIVE ACTIONS CONTINGENT ACTIONS TRIGGERS FOR CONTINGENT ACTIONS Potential Problem Analysis (PPA) 49
50. 50. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org What is the difference between? 1) Preventive action 2) Contingent action 3) Trigger for contingent action 50
51. 51. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org An example of the items in the case of a burning house 51 Preventive Trigger Contingent No open fire in house Hear fire alarm Fire extinguisher
52. 52. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Time to work… 52
53. 53. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org SPONSOR MESSAGE 53
54. 54. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Question 1/2: Which other tools can link to the creation of a PPA? 54
55. 55. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Question 2/2: How should the risks be prioritised, and why is it important to follow that process? 55
56. 56. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org PPA can be started in Measure but continues throughout Analyse, Improve & Control Measure Analyze Improve Potential Problem Likely Causes Effects SEVERITY OCCURANCEAction Trigger for contingent action Contingent Action Preventive Action Need for data! 56
57. 57. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Time for reflection and questions 57
58. 58. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org It’s Feedback time! 58 Persons giving feedback Link to the feedback form (can be found on Schoology and WhatsApp) Instructor to give feedback toPersons giving feedback INSTRUCTOR 1 INSTRUCTOR 2
59. 59. European Students of Industrial Engineering and Management www.estiem.org Usage license of the materials https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode Contact leansixsigma@estiem.org for commercial usage of the materials Materials of the trainings have been created based on the materials provided by ESTIEM Summer Academy Professor Gregory H. Watson