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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 634179.
EMPHASIS
Effective Management of Pests and Harmful Alien Species - Integrated Solutions
J Mumford1, A Leach1, P Baranowski1, J Holt1, B Agstner2, G Jones2, J Alden1, M Quinlan1
1 Imperial College London, Centre for Environmental Policy, Ascot, United Kingdom
2 FERA Science Ltd, Sand Hutton, York, United Kingdom
Boston, August 3rd, 2018
An analytical framework for consistent evaluation of pest and disease
management technologies
EMPHASIS
Effective Management of Pests and Harmful Alien Species - Integrated Solutions
Background
• Innovative technologies are being developed within EMPHASIS
• Analytical Framework evaluates technologies against 27
indicators across 4 dimensions
• This allows us to:
• Integrate a multi-actor approach into technology
development
• Identify strengths and weaknesses of individual
technologies
• Compare novel technologies with each other and
conventional measures
• Identify market opportunities and support business plans
EMPHASIS
Effective Management of Pests and Harmful Alien Species - Integrated Solutions
Analytical Framework methodology
Structured
performance
attributes for
multiple
objectives
Expert
elicitations on
each
technology
Bayesian
Network
compares
efficacy,
efficiency,
sustainability
and
development
Support
business model
planning
EMPHASIS assessments:
Efficacy
6 indicators
Efficiency
7 indicators
Technological development
6 indicators
Environment and sustainability (includes Human health)
8 indicators
Dimensions of indicators for expert elicitation
For EMPHASIS elicitations for 6 crops, 6 pests and 14 technologies have been incorporated
into a single database
Conduct expert elicitation
Each elicitation can be retrieved and displayed
Database of elicitations
Each elicitation can be graphically represented
Database of elicitations
• Compares expected performance
• Expert elicitations summarized and communicated
• Comparison tool
Bayesian Network (BN) integrates beliefs about indicators
Bayesian Network integrates indicators - Efficacy
Bayesian Network integrates indicators - Efficiency
Bayesian Network integrates indicators – Tech Development
Bayesian Network integrates indicators – Sustainability
Bayesian Network integrates indicators – Overall structure
Example of Bayesian Summary
1
2
3=
3=
• A comparison tool is integrated into the Analytical Framework
• Technologies can be directly compared to identify unique strengths
against the same pest/crop combinations
• Developers can identify and demonstrate attributes of technologies that
contribute effectively to business plans
Comparisons between technologies
Comparisons between technologies
Technology Readiness Level
Objectives
• Show the current state of development
of novel technologies in key steps from
concept to market
• Monitor progression of a technology
across these stages
• Provide an indication of what needs to
be done to move to market
UNITO Heterobasidion spp. – conventional control in combination with biological methods
Technology Readiness Level
ANT Microbials, isolated from suppressive compost, effective against soil-borne diseases
Progression shows
added value and
future needs
Risk prioritisation of market opportunities
Objectives
• Allow technology developers to evaluate market
opportunities based on risk register analysis
Methodology
• Use plant health risk register to compare
likelihood and impact of each pest with and
without available mitigation
• Identify pests with high risk but low mitigation
• Gaps identify market opportunities
Likelihood Risk Mitigation Potential from UK PHRR
Prioritised Surveillance opportunities
Highlights opportunities for mitigation for non-headline pests
Impact Risk Mitigation Potential from UK PHRR
Prioritised Management opportunities
Highlights opportunities for mitigation
for non-headline pests
Business Planning tools
Objectives
• Support market and uptake of biological
products and increase return on innovative
research investment
Methodology
• Develop a Business Plan template, integrated
with other Business Planning tools (exploitable
result table and lean canvas)
• Business Planning links to Analytical Framework
tools to support technology developers
• Validate with technology developers
• (Optisense, AgriNewTech and AgriBio)
Analytical Framework improves technology development
• Structured consistent approach for multiple technologies
• Indicators represent multiple user objectives
• Elicitation templates form basis for comparison
• Technology development progress is measured
• Risk mitigation potential and markets identified
• Business planning opportunities supported
Conclusion

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An analytical framework for consistent evaluation of pest and disease management technologies

  • 1. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 634179. EMPHASIS Effective Management of Pests and Harmful Alien Species - Integrated Solutions J Mumford1, A Leach1, P Baranowski1, J Holt1, B Agstner2, G Jones2, J Alden1, M Quinlan1 1 Imperial College London, Centre for Environmental Policy, Ascot, United Kingdom 2 FERA Science Ltd, Sand Hutton, York, United Kingdom Boston, August 3rd, 2018 An analytical framework for consistent evaluation of pest and disease management technologies
  • 2. EMPHASIS Effective Management of Pests and Harmful Alien Species - Integrated Solutions Background • Innovative technologies are being developed within EMPHASIS • Analytical Framework evaluates technologies against 27 indicators across 4 dimensions • This allows us to: • Integrate a multi-actor approach into technology development • Identify strengths and weaknesses of individual technologies • Compare novel technologies with each other and conventional measures • Identify market opportunities and support business plans EMPHASIS Effective Management of Pests and Harmful Alien Species - Integrated Solutions
  • 3. Analytical Framework methodology Structured performance attributes for multiple objectives Expert elicitations on each technology Bayesian Network compares efficacy, efficiency, sustainability and development Support business model planning
  • 4. EMPHASIS assessments: Efficacy 6 indicators Efficiency 7 indicators Technological development 6 indicators Environment and sustainability (includes Human health) 8 indicators Dimensions of indicators for expert elicitation
  • 5. For EMPHASIS elicitations for 6 crops, 6 pests and 14 technologies have been incorporated into a single database Conduct expert elicitation
  • 6. Each elicitation can be retrieved and displayed Database of elicitations
  • 7. Each elicitation can be graphically represented Database of elicitations
  • 8. • Compares expected performance • Expert elicitations summarized and communicated • Comparison tool Bayesian Network (BN) integrates beliefs about indicators
  • 9. Bayesian Network integrates indicators - Efficacy
  • 10. Bayesian Network integrates indicators - Efficiency
  • 11. Bayesian Network integrates indicators – Tech Development
  • 12. Bayesian Network integrates indicators – Sustainability
  • 13. Bayesian Network integrates indicators – Overall structure
  • 14. Example of Bayesian Summary 1 2 3= 3=
  • 15. • A comparison tool is integrated into the Analytical Framework • Technologies can be directly compared to identify unique strengths against the same pest/crop combinations • Developers can identify and demonstrate attributes of technologies that contribute effectively to business plans Comparisons between technologies
  • 17. Technology Readiness Level Objectives • Show the current state of development of novel technologies in key steps from concept to market • Monitor progression of a technology across these stages • Provide an indication of what needs to be done to move to market
  • 18. UNITO Heterobasidion spp. – conventional control in combination with biological methods Technology Readiness Level ANT Microbials, isolated from suppressive compost, effective against soil-borne diseases Progression shows added value and future needs
  • 19. Risk prioritisation of market opportunities Objectives • Allow technology developers to evaluate market opportunities based on risk register analysis Methodology • Use plant health risk register to compare likelihood and impact of each pest with and without available mitigation • Identify pests with high risk but low mitigation • Gaps identify market opportunities
  • 20. Likelihood Risk Mitigation Potential from UK PHRR Prioritised Surveillance opportunities Highlights opportunities for mitigation for non-headline pests
  • 21. Impact Risk Mitigation Potential from UK PHRR Prioritised Management opportunities Highlights opportunities for mitigation for non-headline pests
  • 22. Business Planning tools Objectives • Support market and uptake of biological products and increase return on innovative research investment Methodology • Develop a Business Plan template, integrated with other Business Planning tools (exploitable result table and lean canvas) • Business Planning links to Analytical Framework tools to support technology developers • Validate with technology developers • (Optisense, AgriNewTech and AgriBio)
  • 23. Analytical Framework improves technology development • Structured consistent approach for multiple technologies • Indicators represent multiple user objectives • Elicitation templates form basis for comparison • Technology development progress is measured • Risk mitigation potential and markets identified • Business planning opportunities supported Conclusion