Urban Air Pollution in Developing Country Megacities - Michael P. Walsh

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Urban Air Pollution in Developing Country Megacities.

A Workshop On
Transportation in Developing Urban Areas:
Addressing Air Quality and Climate Change Issues by Michael P. Walsh

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  • Urban Air Pollution in Developing Country Megacities - Michael P. Walsh

    1. 1. A Workshop On Transportation in Developing Urban Areas: Addressing Air Quality and Climate Change Issues Michael P. Walsh
    2. 3. Growth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, 1988-2002 E:Changhong CHEN 对外合作 能源基金会 交通项目 基础数据 机动车统计报表 .xls
    3. 4. Beijing November 2004 Shanghai November 2004 China is Rapidly Moving From Coal Based Pollution To Motor Vehicle Related Pollution
    4. 5. Current US EPA Annual PM 10 Standard (50) More Stringent WHO PM10 Annual Air Quality Guideline (20) Levels of PM 10 in Latin American Cities (2004 data PAHO) Progress Made, New Concerns as science finds effects at lower exposure levels
    5. 8. Delhi
    6. 9. Status of Air Quality PM10 levels in Major Chinese Cities (1999 – 2005) NAAQS Class II PM10 limit = 100µg/m 3 But WHO Recommends 20
    7. 10. Status of Air Quality NO 2 levels in Major Chinese Cities (1999 – 2005) NAAQS Class II NO 2 limit = 80µg/m 3 But WHO Recommends 40
    8. 13. Adverse Health Effects From Vehicle Emissions Beyond Dispute <ul><li>WHO Concludes ~ 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PM; 35,000 in Latin America Alone </li></ul><ul><li>Numerous Studies Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc. </li></ul><ul><li>No Evidence of a Threshold </li></ul><ul><li>Ozone Also A Serious Health Concern </li></ul><ul><li>NO 2 , Various Toxics Also Problematic </li></ul>
    9. 14. <ul><li>OZONE AND PM CAUSE SERIOUS ADVERSE HEALTH EFFECTS INCLUDING PREMATURE DEATH </li></ul>
    10. 15. PM And Black Carbon Emissions Important For Both Urban Air Pollution and Global Climate Change <ul><li>In Urban Areas – Major Cause of Premature Death and Morbidity </li></ul><ul><li>Black Carbon A Potent Greenhouse Pollutant- GWP Estimates Vary But All Are High </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hansen et al – 2000 for 20 Year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Jacobsen 800-1200 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Delucchi CEF ~ 4700 </li></ul></ul>
    11. 16. Health Impacts Clearly Linked To Traffic <ul><li>Over the past decade, dozens of studies from all over the world have shown that spending time in close proximity to heavy traffic, especially diesel truck traffic, is associated with a wide range of morbidity effects, as well as increased mortality </li></ul><ul><li>Diesel exhaust particulate declared a toxic air contaminant by ARB in 1998; Many other organizations raise similar concerns </li></ul>
    12. 17.
    13. 18. Fixed Site Monitors Tend To Underestimate the Vehicle Problem!
    14. 19. ARB In-Vehicle Study Real-Time Fine Particle Counts (L.A. Freeway, AM Rush Hour, Vent Open) Total Particle Counts / cc Fixed Site Monitors Tend To Underestimate the Vehicle Problem (2)
    15. 21. Sources of Air Pollution in Latin American Cities (PM10 contribution) Mobile sources significant contributor in urban areas Source: PAHO 2005 Assessment, emissions inventory
    16. 22. Sources of Air Pollution in Bangkok
    17. 23. RESPIRABLE SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER (RSPM) LEVELS IN AMBIENT AIR
    18. 24. OXIDES OF NITROGEN (NO X ) LEVELS IN AMBIENT AIR
    19. 26. Emissions From Real Vehicles in Actual Use Are What Impacts On Air Quality
    20. 27. Life-cycle Emission Control Note: I/M (Inspection and Maintenance)
    21. 28. In Use Results in the US <ul><li>About 65 million vehicles recalled for emissions-related problems since 1971 </li></ul><ul><li>Over the last 2 years, 6 million vehicles recalled for emission-related problems </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturers motivated to produce high quality and durable emission components in order to reduce in-use liability </li></ul>Slide --
    22. 29. Actual NOx Levels Are Much Higher Than Type Approval Indicates in EU How have specific NOx emissions of diesel passenger cars evolved in the past? EU 5 Limit
    23. 30. China’s In Use Compliance Program <ul><li>2007 First Year of Testing </li></ul><ul><li>10 Cars/all Passed </li></ul><ul><li>9 Motorcycles/4 Failed </li></ul><ul><li>Motorcycles Had Different Parts than Type Approval </li></ul><ul><li>India Bus Company Removed All Catalysts To Prevent Stealing the “Precious Metals” </li></ul>
    24. 31. Low Sulfur Fuel is Critical to Get Maximum Benefits Sensitivity to Sulfur With Catalyzed Soot Filters
    25. 32. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 #90 #93 #97 #90 #93 #97 Reg Pre. Beijing Whole Countries (w/o Beijing) Reference (Japan) Sulfur , ppmw Sulfur Content in Chinese Gasoline Octane Grade 2006 Winter & Summer Euro4 Euro3 (less than 10)
    26. 33. 0 10 20 30 40 Manganese, ppmw #90 #93 #97 Reg Pre. Whole Countries (w/ Beijing) Reference (Japan) Octane Grade 2006 Winter & Summer not contain Gasoline Quality in China : Manganese
    27. 34. Bellagio Principles <ul><li>Design Programs & Policies That Reduce Conventional, Toxic, Noise and Greenhouse Emissions in Parallel </li></ul><ul><li>Treat Vehicles and Fuels As A System </li></ul><ul><li>Expect & Require Best Technologies and Fuels Worldwide – in Both Industrialized and Developing Countries </li></ul>

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