Transforming Fuels and Vehicle Technology - Drew Kodjak - ICCT - Transforming Transportation 2013 - EMBARQ and The World Bank
Transforming vehicle and fuel technologies!! Presented at Transforming Transportation 2013!! Drew Kodjak!! Executive Director!! The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)!Transforming Transportation 2013!
Panel: Transforming vehicleand fuel technologies Conference: “Transforming Transportation”!Drew Kodjak, Executive Director!EMBARQ & World Bank!Washington DC !January 18, 2013!
2012 Summit: Brazil, China, Europe, India, Korea, Mexico, Russia, US!The International Council on Clean Transportation 20! 18.06!2010 Car and Truck Sales (in million 18! 16! 15.11! 14! 11.77! 12! units)! 10! 8! 6! 4.96! 3.52! 3.04! 4! 2.02! 1.58! 1.56! 2! 1.04! 0.85! 0! China! EU - 27! U.S.! Japan! Brazil! India! Russia! Canada! South Australia! Mexico! Korea! ICCT works with government agencies in major vehicle markets that ! 3 account for ~ 85% of new vehicle sales.!
Main Messages!§ Local air pollution from vehicles largely solved technologically but penetration is SLOW across most of the world.! § Most advanced vehicles 99% cleaner than 1960s versions at modest cost and no change to performance or safety.! § Those technologies and policies are expanding SLOWLY across the rest of the world.! § Lack of low sulfur fuels is a pervasive bottleneck to advance standards and technologies.!§ Huge investments in technology innovation to improve vehicle energy efﬁciency is taking place in major markets.! § Tremendous progress taking place in major markets – US, EU, Japan, China – for passenger vehicles, heavy-duty trucks, and on the international level with international marine vessels.! § Government policies are necessary to drive new technologies into the marketplace to transform the energy efﬁciency of all vehicle modes.! § Eventually, transformation must include low carbon fuels and electric drive vehicles fueled on low carbon electrons.!
Technology Conventional transformation is largely complete –Pollutant Emissions! implementation is slow in most of the world!
All regions growing in transportation energy consumption! 90 ! Rest of EU! Rest of Latin America! 80 ! Africa! Russia! 70 ! Australia! Korea! 60 ! Japan!Unit: Mboe/day! Brazil! 50 ! Mexico! Canada! 40 ! Middle East! Rest of Asia-Paciﬁc! 30 ! India! China! 20 ! EU-27! U.S.! 10 ! International Waterborne! (country order in legend! - ! 2000! 2005! 2010! 2015! 2020! 2025! 2030! matches order in chart)! The U.S., EU-27, and China require the most energy for transportation (including passenger vehicles, heavy-duty freight conveyance, and aviation). Fuel demand is expected to increase in all regions. Developing countries and regions, particularly India and the Asia-Paciﬁc region, are expected to grow in relative impact.! Data from: ! ICCT Global Transportation Roadmap model!
Light-duty vehicles, trucks, aviation and waterborne are key modes! 90 ! WATERBORNE, 13%! 80 ! AVIATION, 10%! 70 ! FREIGHT RAIL, 2%! 60 !Unit: Mboe/day! PASSENGER RAIL, 1%! 50 ! TRUCK, 26%! 40 ! 2&3 WHEELERS, 3%! 30 ! BUS, 6%! 20 ! LDV, 40%! 10 ! percentage reﬂects average share over 30 year period! - ! 2000! 2005! 2010! 2015! 2020! 2025! 2030! The share of energy consumption by mode remains consistent over the 30-year period, with all sectors increasing in energy demand. Light-duty vehicles (LDV) and trucks consume the most energy, with a combined share of 66%! Data from: ! ICCT Global Transportation Roadmap model!
Trends in global annual premature mortalities in urban areas fromtransportation-related primary PM2.5 (2000-2030)! Source: ICCT Roadmap Model (preliminary)!
Share of global annual premature mortalities in urban areas fromtransportation-related primary PM2.5 (2000-2030)! Source: ICCT Roadmap Model (preliminary)!
Technology innovationFuel consumption! happening now and at a great pace!
Global CO2 Emissions Stabilized by PassengerVehicle Fuel Economy Standards in 2025 Policies will offset doubling of vehicles on the road from 2000 to 2030(700 million to 1.6 billion passenger vehicles)!
Tremendous progress achieved to lower fuelconsumption from vehicles, and much more opportunityremains . . . ! 13
For more information on the ICCT please visit http://www.theicct.org! 14
Transforming Transportation 2013!! Co-organized by EMBARQ and The World Bank!! More information at:!! EMBARQ.org!! worldbank.org/transport!! Questions? Comments? Contact us at email@example.com!! Follow us on Twitter: @EMBARQnetwork!Transforming Transportation 2013!