ITF Transport Outlook: Meeting the needs of 9 billion people
ITF Transport Outlook Meeting the needs of 9 billion peoplePlenary 2: Towards a Green EconomyITF Transport Outlook Transforming TransportationTransforming Transportation Plenary 2: Towards a Green EconomyWashington DC Washington DC26 January 2012 26 January 2012
2Global passenger transport activity 2000 – 2050Index of pkm (2000 = 100) High: European saturation levels in BRICs Low: Japanese saturation levels in BRICsSource: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.
3Global passenger transport activity 2000-2050• Meeting the needs of 9 billion people• Outlook fraught with uncertainty over such a long period• Global passenger-km increase 3-4 times by 2050• Outside OECD pkm could increse 5 or 6 fold• Range is not measure of uncertainty but illustrates potential impact of modest changes in assumptions• Low scenario – IEA base case in WEO 2008, Emerging economies reach Japanese levels of car ownership and use levels• High scenario: European saturation levels• Share of car trips seems set to rise from <10% in China to >50%
4Aviation• Medium term in line with IEA and IATA• Longer term:• Low scenario lower than IATA especially in OECD countries• High OECD continues to grow non-OECD accelerates with deregulation and open skies• High is still much lower than aircraft makers forecasts
5Global freight transport activity, 2000 - 2050Index of tkm (2000 = 100) High: Constant freight intensity Low: Dematerialisation of growth Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.
6Freight Transport Activity 2000-2050• Global freight tonne-km to rise 2.5 – 3.5 times by 2050• Low scenario: Dematerialisation of growth, eg shift to services• High scenario: GDP growth continues at 2005 freight intensity levels• Developing countries may be embarking on a relatively freight intensive growth path, so full upside risk not reflected in graph
7High Scenarios• Best interpreted as where demand would like to go• Realistic? Policy intervention?• Eg fast urbanisation might slow growth of car ownership and use• High energy prices would suppress• But high scenarios far from impossible
8 Impact of Economic Crisis USA External trade by sea and air, percentage change from pre- crisis peak Jun-08 (Tonnes, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted) USA external trade by Sea, total USA external trade by Air, total (tonnes) (tonnes) Sep-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Jun-11 Jul-08Jul-08 2% 3% 1% -3% -4% -16% -20% Source: ITF Trade and Transport Database
9Impact of Economic Crisis• Total trade by sea and air in US• 2 years to recover, but now flatlining or falling again• End of stimulus, cooling of Chinese growth, in Europe bite of austerity• Outlook incorporated 5 year shift• Next will look at longer stagnation
10 EU External trade by sea and air, percentage change from pre-crisis peak (Tonnes, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted) EU 27 external trade by sea, total EU 27 external trade by air, total (tonnes) (tonnes) Jun-11 Sep-11 14% Jul-08 Sep-11 Jun-11Jul-08 8% 4% -4% -4% -17% -20% Source: ITF Trade and Transport Database
11Shift in centre of gravity from OECD to non-OECD countries(halfway case between high and low scenarios) Passenger mobility Passenger mobility (pkm) 2000 (pkm) 2050 OECD 22% Non- OECD OECD 46% 54% Non- OECD 78% Surface freight (tkm) 2000 Surface freight (tkm) 2050 OECD Non-OEC 31% OECD D 48% Non- 52% OECD 69% Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.
12 Global CO2 emissions from transport index (2000 = 100) High: European car saturation levels in BRICs air liberalisation Low: Japanese saturation levels in BRICs and dematerialisationSource: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.
13Global CO2 emissions from transport• CO2 emissions rise less quickly than mobility through fuel economy improvement• Increase 2.5 to 3 times
Car Fuel Economy/CO2 Targets 12 Historical performance US-3% Enacted targets US-6% 11 Proposed targets California Unannounced proposal Canada 10 Uncertain targets EULiters per 100km, normalized to NEDC Japan 9 China S. Korea 8 7 6 5 4 3 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source:  Based on 3% annual fleet GHG emissions reduction between 2017 and 2025 in the September 30th NOI .  Based on 6% annual fleet GHG emissions reduction between 2017 and 2025 in the September 30th NOI .  Chinas target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower. March 2011
15Global CO2 emissions from transport• Maximisation of cost effective fuel economy improvement around the world, eg through continues progress with emissions standards would stabilise emissions• GFEI target• 8 l/100km ave new fleet economy in 2008 rise to 4 l/100km in 2030; whole fleet 2005• Impressive but not enough to for IPCC 450ppm CO2 limit
16Average LDV on-road fuel-intensity,baseline and stabilization of emissions(litres gasoline equivalent per 100km)Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.
17Peak Travel?Passenger-kilometres by private car and light trucks, 1970 – 2009index (1990 = 100)160150 Germany140 Australia130 France120 United Kingdom United110 States Japan10090 Oil price shock and start of crisis80 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Source: ITF 2011 Transport Outlook from Household Survey Data
18Peak travel?• Evidence of reduced responsiveness of car and light truck travel to increasing incomes in advanced economies• As the effect of income on travel (vkm) diminishes, it leaves a larger role to other determinants such as fuel prices, urbanisation, ageing and network management• But economic cycle visible in US in particular• And income distribution may have a large role. Income growth in last decade concentrated on wealthiest 10%. Incomes decreased in many of the lower deciles.
19Peak travel?• High income households are less responsive due to saturation, low income households very responsive• Whether or not growing income translates into more driving (VMT) thus also depends on the distribution of income growth• Uncertainty over future income likely to play a role in medium term• Demographics becoming increasingly important• These factors have strong implications for the projection of long run transport demand
20 Passenger Modal Split, 2005 and 2050 halfway case between high and low scenario, p-km (%) OECD Non-OECD80% 80%70% 70%60% 60%50% 50%40% 2005 40% 2005 2050 205030% 30%20% 20%10% 10% 0% 0% Car+LT Air Rail Buses Other Car+LT Air Rail Buses OtherSource: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.
21Freight modal split by region, 2005 and 2050halfway case between high and low scenarios, t-km (%) OECD Non-OECD 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 2005 40% 2005 2050 2050 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Trucks Rail Trucks Rail Source: International Transport Forum calculations using MoMo version 2011.
Thank youMichael KlothT +33 (0)1 45 24 95 96E firstname.lastname@example.orgPostal address2 rue Andre Pascal75775 Paris Cedex 16
23Total annual vehicle miles by householdincome, USA, 1995, 2001, 2009