GHG mitigation potential in the transport sector in Mexico

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By Hilda Martinez. Presented on Day Two of Transforming Transportation. Washington, D.C. January 15, 2010.

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  • Mexico, as the majority of the countries in the world is higly dependent of fosil fuels. 89 % of the energy in Mexico is produce by fosil energy, while less than 3% is from renewal energy. Currently the average consumption of fosil fuel in the country is above that of the OCDE countries. In this slide we can see the final energy consumption by sector for the year 2008, where transport is responsabile for more then 50% of this consumption. Between 2006 and 2008 the transport sector had a increase of almost 5% in the final energy connsumption. And in the almost 20 years, transport consumption has double, going from 1200 PJ in 1990 to 2400 PJ in 2008.
  • Talking about GHG emissions, Mexico is the 13 country in the world with the highest emmisions of GHG Based on the 2006 GHG emision inventory, energy consumption is responsible of more than 60% of the emissions, where transport plays an important role with 20% of these emissions During 2006, the GHG emisions per capita in Mexico were 6.84 tons of CO2 eq, the value for energy consumption was of 4,14 ton/ CO2 equivalent. From the total emissions: road transport is responsible for 92% of them , while air is responible for 5%, maritime for 2% and trains for 1%
  • GHG emissions, measure in CO2 equivalents grew around 40% between 1990 and 2006. Being energy the main source of this emissions, where fosil fuel use for power generation and transport are the majot source of emissions. Las emisiones de GEI de México, medidas en unidades de CO2 eq., crecieron 40.3% en el período 1990 a 2006.
  • En tan solo 10 años, de 1996 al 2006 la flota exprimento un crecimiento del 160 %, pasando de 8. 3 millones de vehiculos a mas de 21 millones de vehículos.
  • Dargay, Gately and Sommer point out that vehicle ownership grows slow at a low income level, accelerates steeply as countries go through a middle income level and then slows down again when countries reach a high level income and approach their vehicle saturation stage (Gompertz function) Based on this figure an as for 2008, Mexico has the highest rate for vehicles per 1000 habitants in a Latinamerican country, which is around 107 vehicles per a thousand inhabitants. If Mexico keeps up with that vehicle growth, by 2030 will have 500 vehicles per inhabitant.
  • Vehicle ownership tends to increase twice as fast as per-capita income when the range of income, per-capita, is between $3,000 dls to $10,000 dls. [Dargay et al., 2007] Mexico is today in this range of income and is experiencing an accelerated growth in vehicle ownership La siguiente figura nos muestra el rango de motorización de diferentes países, donde se puede observar que México tiene el rango mas elevado en Latinoamérica con 107 vehículos por mil habitantes. De seguir la tendencia de motorización como hasta ahora este numero podría alcanzar hasta cerca de 500 vehículos por 1000 habitantes al 2030.
  • Subsidy to Gasoline accounted for 20 billion dollars in 2008 According to OECD, in 2008, this represents more than 2.1% of GDP Tax burden accounts for 714 USD per household a year
  • En las proyecciones contenidas en la 3era comunicación Nacional de Cambio Climático, se prevé que para el 2010 el transporte sea responsable del 33.5% de las emisiones totales de GEI en el país.
  • In 2005, import of low efficient used vehicles (+10 years old) from the US amounted 1.3 millions .
  • Esta figura se desprende de estudio MEDEC, y demuestra la proyección en el crecimiento de la flota vehicular por tipo de vehículo en el periodo de estudio (2009-2030). Nos demuestra que de seguir la tendencia de motorización como hasta ahora, al 2030 estaríamos teniendo un parque vehicular de mas de 70 millones de vehículos. Es decir, en tan solo 20 años la flota actual crecería mas del doble.
  • Esta figura se desprende de estudio MEDEC, y demuestra la proyección en las emisiones al 2030 por tipo de vehículo.
  • Financiado por el Banco Mundial, y forma parte del Clean Energy Investment Framework El estudio se enfoca en el análisis de los países emergentes (+5) ya que se espera que sea en estos donde se incremente la intensidad en el uso de la energía a un modo más rápido y dramático en el futuro próximo. La aportación de estos países a las emisiones globales de Gases de Efecto Invernadero, por tanto, se incrementará significativamente. La evaluación realizada en el estudio MEDEC demuestra que para lograr las minimas reducciones en las emisiones de GEI es necesario llevar acabo un enfoque programatico.
  • Descripción de las Medidas 1 Densification Urban Area - seeks to promote a policy for the development and preservation of urban centers, using sustainability criteria that offer conditions of livability (access to work, schools, shopping) Urban planning that incorporates increased density makes it possible to reduce the demand for motorized transportation while revitalizing urban centers with mixed land use, recovering the urban landscape, and rebuilding communities by means of equal access to goods and services, education, and maintenance of environmental and urban quality. High-density urban planning would impose growth limits on urban zones, directly impacting the use of vehicles (private and public) as well as fuel consumption. The main assumption is the reduction of the urban area growth rate by half. 2 Energy Efficiency Standard New Vehicles - would provide a regulatory incentive to promote more efficient technologies. This measure runs the risk of encouraging sales of used cars which could have the overall effect of lowering fuel economy if implemented separately. Therefore, standards for new vehicles should be accompanied by a national vehicle inspection program that prevents the purchase of inefficient used vehicles and the two measures were evaluated simultaneously in the analysis. The standard evaluated for Mexico is similar to the vehicle efficiency standard used for new vehicles in the US known as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standard due to the introduction of a cap & trade market for the light vehicle industry. 3 Hybrid Buses for Public Transit - consists of the introduction and expansion of hybrid buses in the urban transportation bus fleet, encompassing 30 percent of all urban buses in 2030. 4 Optimization of Transportation Routes - refers to the restructuring of the collective transportation system’s routes, while also incorporating improvements in urban infrastructure (roads, bus stops, traffic signs), public information, traffic monitoring and control, as well as vehicle improvements. This measure represents an important option for mitigating GHG emissions in urban public transportation, since the flight to private vehicles has been at least in part the result of inefficient transportation systems, including contributing to the spread and uncontrolled growth of urban transportation routes and traffic congestion. 5 BRT - refers to the introduction of metro-style rapid mass transit systems of the type introduced in Mexico City’s Insurgentes Avenue. It was assumed that the systems would be introduced in Mexican cities that currently have more than 750,000 inhabitants. The target of the program evaluated was to have 1.5 km/100,000 inhabitants of BRT lanes by 2030, equivalent to 122 lines of BRT systems, with a total of 1,830 km nationwide. 6 NMT - is a mobility alternative that gives priority to pedestrians and bicyclists. It is an efficient, accessible, non-polluting means of transportation, is beneficial to health, and also has recreational value. Formal NMT systems are typically used as feeder systems to mass transit systems for longer‑distance trips and should be interconnected with the most important trip destinations (schools, work, shopping centers, tourist sites). Under this scenario, the study quantified a 6 percent national modal share for bicycle trips by 2030. 7 Vehicular Restriction in 21 Metropolitan Areas - is a TDM policy that can influence trip behavior. The TDM´s primary objective is to implement actions that deter the use of private vehicles and promote the use of massive and sustainable public transportation. For this intervention the first assumption was the application of a vehicular inspection and maintenance as well as a restriction program, such as the one in Mexico City’s, in 21 Metropolitan Areas which concentrate about 60% of total vehicle fleet. 8 Vehicle Import Restriction through I & M - propose to regularize the imported-used vehicles of low environmental performance. It is proposed to implement legal procedures that avoid the entrance of low performance imported vehicles. It is assumed that the entrance of vehicles that exceed the 2% CO threshold should be forbidden and that, very likely, would not approve the (simulated acceleration prove). 9 Freight Company Coordination - is aimed at optimizing freight transportation logistics, including the creation of freight enterprises, specialized terminals, freight transportation corridors, and information systems, with benefits for 80 percent of truck drivers. 10 Promotion of Freight Trains - proposes a steady increase in the railroad sector until its share of the national total of transported freight increases from 20 percent currently to 45 percent by 2030. This increase in rail transport will come at the expense of truck freight, although road freight transport will continue to grow in real terms, driven by economic growth. The measure includes programs to expand the length of rail and expand freight capacity on the general railroad transportation route, mobilizing trains that are longer and carry a greater volume of freight.
  • In adition of reducing GHG emissions, seven of the transport interventions evaluated had significant co-benefits. By reducing the distance travel by the vehicle fleet, the reduction in congestion leads to time savings. The reduction in local pollution leads to lower health cost by reducing the rate of respiratory ilinnes. Time was value as minimum wage The health benefit analysis was done with INE asistance, and they use exposure response relationship between pollution exposure and health impacts including cardiovascular, pulmonary, infant respiratory mortality chronic bronchitis, lost work days and restricted activity days. Time Benefits: Externalities: Mainly Health Impacts (With INE´s assistance)
  • Descripción de las Medidas 1 Densification Urban Area - seeks to promote a policy for the development and preservation of urban centers, using sustainability criteria that offer conditions of livability (access to work, schools, shopping) Urban planning that incorporates increased density makes it possible to reduce the demand for motorized transportation while revitalizing urban centers with mixed land use, recovering the urban landscape, and rebuilding communities by means of equal access to goods and services, education, and maintenance of environmental and urban quality. High-density urban planning would impose growth limits on urban zones, directly impacting the use of vehicles (private and public) as well as fuel consumption. The main assumption is the reduction of the urban area growth rate by half. 2 Energy Efficiency Standard New Vehicles - would provide a regulatory incentive to promote more efficient technologies. This measure runs the risk of encouraging sales of used cars which could have the overall effect of lowering fuel economy if implemented separately. Therefore, standards for new vehicles should be accompanied by a national vehicle inspection program that prevents the purchase of inefficient used vehicles and the two measures were evaluated simultaneously in the analysis. The standard evaluated for Mexico is similar to the vehicle efficiency standard used for new vehicles in the US known as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standard due to the introduction of a cap & trade market for the light vehicle industry. 3 Hybrid Buses for Public Transit - consists of the introduction and expansion of hybrid buses in the urban transportation bus fleet, encompassing 30 percent of all urban buses in 2030. 4 Optimization of Transportation Routes - refers to the restructuring of the collective transportation system’s routes, while also incorporating improvements in urban infrastructure (roads, bus stops, traffic signs), public information, traffic monitoring and control, as well as vehicle improvements. This measure represents an important option for mitigating GHG emissions in urban public transportation, since the flight to private vehicles has been at least in part the result of inefficient transportation systems, including contributing to the spread and uncontrolled growth of urban transportation routes and traffic congestion. 5 BRT - refers to the introduction of metro-style rapid mass transit systems of the type introduced in Mexico City’s Insurgentes Avenue. It was assumed that the systems would be introduced in Mexican cities that currently have more than 750,000 inhabitants. The target of the program evaluated was to have 1.5 km/100,000 inhabitants of BRT lanes by 2030, equivalent to 122 lines of BRT systems, with a total of 1,830 km nationwide. 6 NMT - is a mobility alternative that gives priority to pedestrians and bicyclists. It is an efficient, accessible, non-polluting means of transportation, is beneficial to health, and also has recreational value. Formal NMT systems are typically used as feeder systems to mass transit systems for longer‑distance trips and should be interconnected with the most important trip destinations (schools, work, shopping centers, tourist sites). Under this scenario, the study quantified a 6 percent national modal share for bicycle trips by 2030. 7 Vehicular Restriction in 21 Metropolitan Areas - is a TDM policy that can influence trip behavior. The TDM´s primary objective is to implement actions that deter the use of private vehicles and promote the use of massive and sustainable public transportation. For this intervention the first assumption was the application of a vehicular inspection and maintenance as well as a restriction program, such as the one in Mexico City’s, in 21 Metropolitan Areas which concentrate about 60% of total vehicle fleet. 8 Vehicle Import Restriction through I & M - propose to regularize the imported-used vehicles of low environmental performance. It is proposed to implement legal procedures that avoid the entrance of low performance imported vehicles. It is assumed that the entrance of vehicles that exceed the 2% CO threshold should be forbidden and that, very likely, would not approve the (simulated acceleration prove). 9 Freight Company Coordination - is aimed at optimizing freight transportation logistics, including the creation of freight enterprises, specialized terminals, freight transportation corridors, and information systems, with benefits for 80 percent of truck drivers. 10 Promotion of Freight Trains - proposes a steady increase in the railroad sector until its share of the national total of transported freight increases from 20 percent currently to 45 percent by 2030. This increase in rail transport will come at the expense of truck freight, although road freight transport will continue to grow in real terms, driven by economic growth. The measure includes programs to expand the length of rail and expand freight capacity on the general railroad transportation route, mobilizing trains that are longer and carry a greater volume of freight.
  • Metrobus, 3 lines and it is starting its 4 th line will starts operation in 2011 Macrobus: 1 line in operation and its second line start operation in 2011 León : 3 lines in operation During 2008, The Federal Government under the framework of Fondo Nacional de Infraestructura (FONADIN ) in BANOBRAS Developed through SHCP with World Bank assistance The first Federal Mass Transit Program (PROTRAM ) ever to be exist in the country Together with BRT, the FONADIN supports other mass transit systems like, Suburban train, metro, Light trains and infraestructure for multimodal integration
  • INE and SEMARNAT working on an energy efficiency proposal for new light duty vehicles
  • By the end of 2009 CTS was hired by ECOFYS to develop two NAMA. Both of the proposed NAMAs builds on the National Climate Change Program objectives. One of them is part of the ADB &IDB Climate Instruments in the Transport sector project The first NAMA: aims to create a comprehensive scrapping program by supporting the development of a funding scheme for the non-regulated federal transport, known as man-truck, which promotes the scrapping of units older than 10 year. Decrease are due to the incorporation of more efficient vehicles. The second NAMA focuses on the optimization of the conventional bus system in Mexico City. The reductions are due to the decrease in the number of buses, optimized bus size and decrease in the route length.
  • GHG mitigation potential in the transport sector in Mexico

    1. 2. Transforming Transportation GHG mitigation potential in the transport sector in Mexico Hilda Martínez Centro de Transporte Sustentable de México January 15, 2010
    2. 3. Content <ul><li>National context </li></ul><ul><li>The role of transport in GHG emissions </li></ul><ul><li>GHG mitigations strategies (MEDEC) </li></ul><ul><li>Tackling the problem </li></ul>
    3. 4. Content <ul><li>National context </li></ul>
    4. 5. Final energy consumption by sector Source: National Energy Balance, SENER, 2008 Final energy consumption (2008) : 4815 PJ
    5. 6. National GHG Inventory (2006): CO 2 equivalents per sector 711 millones ton of CO 2 equivalents Fugitive emissions 6% Point sources 35% Industrial Processes 9% Agriculture 6% Land use 10 % Waste 14% Source: Mexico’s Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework. Convention on Climate Change, INE, 2009 Transport 20 % Energy 61%
    6. 7. GHG Emissions by energy production and consumption, by sector Source: Mexico’s Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework. Convention on Climate Change, INE, 2009 42.9 % 2.7 % 25.8 % 63.3 % 1.5 % 65.2 %
    7. 8. Content <ul><li>The role of transport in GHG </li></ul><ul><li>emissions (MEDEC) </li></ul>
    8. 9. The problem <ul><li>The country’s vehicle fleet triple from 8.3 millions vehicles in 1996 to 21.5 millions in 2006 (average growth rate: 9.6%) </li></ul><ul><li>Mexico has followed a diffuse urbanization pattern, contributing for urban sprawl. </li></ul><ul><li>Deteriorating quality of public transport </li></ul>
    9. 10. Motor vehicle ownership: Historical trend and projected growth for selected countries Source: Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, World Wide, 1960-2030, Dargay, et al, 2007
    10. 11. Ownership /per capita income Source: Ownership/Per Capita Income [CTS with data from Dargay et al., 2007 ]
    11. 12. Specific factors of vehicle ownership growth in Mexico Source: CTS Mexico with SENER and INEGI data 1. Constant fuel real prices: Makes the ownership of vehicles cheap
    12. 13. Source: Banxico, 2009 2. Credit access: facilitates the acquisition of vehicles by a greater proportion of the population Source: SHCP, 2007
    13. 14. Source: SEMARNAT, 2008 3. Import of used vehicles : also facilitates the acquisition of vehicles by a greater proportion of the population
    14. 15. Mexico projection of total fleet by type of vehicle (2009- 2030) Source: MEDEC study, CTS Mexico 2008
    15. 16. Mexico projection of total emission per mode (2009- 2030) Source: MEDEC study, CTS Mexico 2008
    16. 17. Content <ul><li>GHG mitigations strategies </li></ul><ul><li>(MEDEC) </li></ul>
    17. 18. Proposed Strategy To face the difficulties that the transport sector represent ,an integrated strategy is required
    18. 19. Alternate Scenario CTS / MEDEC Source: MEDEC study, CTS Mexico 2008
    19. 20. People Mobility Technology Source: MEDEC study, CTS Mexico 2008
    20. 21. Externality and time costs for MEDEC Transport Interventions
    21. 22. Marginal Abetment cost curves
    22. 23. MEDEC findings <ul><li>A dense urban growth policy helps to increase the demand for mass transit systems and hence improves their efficiency. </li></ul><ul><li>Measures that improved mobility (travel time and life quality) for people where the ones that offered more social savings. </li></ul><ul><li>Transport should be considered as an integrated system formed by a combination of elements </li></ul><ul><li>Failing to recognize these interrelations in the design of a transport policy may jeopardize its overall success </li></ul>
    23. 24. Content <ul><li>Tackling the problem </li></ul>
    24. 25. BRT Systems <ul><li>BRT Systems operating in 3 cities: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mexico (Metrobus) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Guadalajara (Macrobus) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>León (Optibus) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Federal Support Program for Mass Transit (PROTRAM): 32 cities applying to the program </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Objectives: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Support cities in developing Mass Transit Investment Projects with high social justification </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Support projects that are integrated to Sustainable Mobility Plans </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Complement local government investment & maximize private investment </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Strengthen local institutions in urban transport planning , regulation & management. </li></ul></ul></ul>
    25. 26. Energy efficiency proposal for new light duty vehicles <ul><li>Objective: to achieve18 km/l corporate average fuel economy for the new light duty vehicle fleet in 2015 (equivalent 130 gr CO2/km) </li></ul><ul><li>Policy to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mitigate GHG emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Curve fossils fuels consumption </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To cut fossil fuels subsidies (2.01% of the GDP, 2008) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To diminish fossil fuels imports (44% of the total consumption in 2008) </li></ul></ul>
    26. 27. Nationally appropriate mitigation action (NAMA) <ul><li>Optimization of conventional bus system (e.g. unified pricing system for all public transport modes, etc.). </li></ul><ul><li>Financing scheme for a comprehensive scrapping program </li></ul>
    27. 28. THANK YOU [email_address] http://www.ctsmexico.org

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