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David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

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Presentation by David Elzinga titled "Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future"

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David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

  1. 1. Tapping technology’s potentialto secure a clean energy future25th October 2012David Elzinga © OECD/IEA 2012
  2. 2. ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures 2DS 4DS 6DSa vision of a sustainable reflecting pledges by where the world is nowenergy system of reduced countries to cut heading with potentiallyGreenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and boost devastating resultsand CO2 emissions energy efficiency The 2°C Scenario The 4°C Scenario The 6°C Scenario © OECD/IEA 2012
  3. 3. Sustainable future still in reach Is a clean energy Are we on track to Can we get ontransition urgent? reach a clean track? energy future? YES ✓ NO ✗ YES ✓ © OECD/IEA 2012
  4. 4. Recommendations to Governments 1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy 2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future 3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D) © OECD/IEA 2012
  5. 5. The Global Energy system today Dominated by fossil fuels in all sectors © OECD/IEA 2012
  6. 6. The future low-carbon energy systemThe 2DS in 2050 shows a dramatic shift in energy sources and demands © OECD/IEA 2012
  7. 7. Only collective efforts of all sectorslead to the 2DSThe core of a clean energy system is low-carbonelectricity that diffuses into all end-use sectors. © OECD/IEA 2012
  8. 8. A variety of technologies is requiredto achieve the 2DS Power generation efficiency and fuel switching Nuclear 3% 8% CCS 20% End-use fuel switching 9% End-use fuel and electricity Renewables efficiency 29% 31%Energy efficiency is the hidden fuel that increases energy security and mitigates climate change. © OECD/IEA 2012
  9. 9. A smart, sustainable energy system Co-generation Renewable energy resources Centralised fuel production, power and storage Distributed energy resourcesSmart energysystem control H2 vehicle Surplus heat EV A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system © OECD/IEA 2012
  10. 10. Clean energy: slow lane to fast track Cleaner coal power Nuclear power Renewable power CCS in power CCS in industry Progress is too slow in Industry almost all technology areas Significant action is required Buildings to get back on track Fuel economy Electric vehicles Biofuels for transport © OECD/IEA 2012
  11. 11. Industry must become more efficient 12 6DS 10 Other industries 8 Chemicals and petrochemicalsGtCO2 6 Aluminium 4 Pulp and paper 2 Iron and steel 0 Cement 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies. © OECD/IEA 2012
  12. 12. The CCS infant must grow quickly Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2Mt CO2Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year © OECD/IEA 2012
  13. 13. Electric vehicles need to come of age 200 FCEV Electric Vehicles Fuel Cell ElectricityPassenger LDV sales (million) 150 Plug-in hybrid diesel Plug-in hybrid gasoline 100 Diesel hybrid Gasoline hybrid 50 CNG/LPG Diesel 0 Gasoline 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050. © OECD/IEA 2012
  14. 14. Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future Total energy savings 33 EJ Space heating 22% Other 15% Water heating Services 12% Lighting, 3% Residential Cooling and ventilation, 3% Water heating, 2% Cooking 15% Space heating, 7% Appliances Cooling and ventilation 10% Lighting 5% 6% About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector. © OECD/IEA 2012
  15. 15. Building sector challenges differ 2.5 2.0Billion households 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 OECD Non OECD 75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050 © OECD/IEA 2012
  16. 16. Heating & Cooling: huge potential Renewable heat Integration with electricity District heating and cooling network Co-generation Surplus heat Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected. © OECD/IEA 2012
  17. 17. Energy and CO2 impacts ofelectricity generation Other transformation AgricultureOther transformation Agriculture 2% 5% 2% 6% Buildings 9% Buildings 15% Power Transport Power Transport 38% 20% 38% 18% Industry Industry 21% 26% Total primary energy Total energy-related use: 509 EJ in 2009 CO2 emissions: 31.4 Gt in 2009 Power sector accounted in 2009 for almost 40% of global primary energy use and energy-related CO2 emissions. © OECD/IEA 2012
  18. 18. Key technologies to decarbonise power generation 25 Additional emissions 6DS Electricity savings 28% (21%) 20 Fuel switching and efficiency 5% (2%) Other renewables 5% (7%) 15GtCO2 Wind, offshore 7% (7%) Wind, onshore 7% (5%) 10 CSP 5% (8%) PV 7% (8%) 5 Hydro 4% (3%) Nuclear 14% (17%) 0 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 CCS 18% (22%) Note: The first percentage number refers to its share in cumulative CO2 reductions between 2009 and 2050, while the percentage in parentheses refers to the annual reduction, in 2050. Electricity demand savings and renewables are each responsible for one-third of the cumulative CO2 reductions in the power sector in the 2DS. © OECD/IEA 2012
  19. 19. Electricity generation scenarios 45 000 Other 100% 40 000 4DS Wind 19% 35 000 80% 36% Solar 13% 30 000 Renewables HydroTWh 25 000 60% 12% Nuclear Nuclear 3% 20 000 Fossil w CCS Biomass and waste 40% Fossil w/o CCS 15 000 67% 10 000 Oil 49% Gas 20% 5 000 0 Coal 0% 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 2009 2050 45 000 Other 100% 40 000 2DS Wind 19% 35 000 80% Solar 13% 57% Renewables 30 000 HydroTWh 60% Nuclear 25 000 Nuclear Fossil w CCS 20 000 Biomass and waste 40% Fossil w/o CCS 15 000 67% 19% 10 000 Oil 20% 5 000 Gas 14% Coal 9% 0 0% 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 2009 2050 In the 2DS, global electricity supply becomes decarbonised by 2050. © OECD/IEA 2012
  20. 20. Electricity generation capacityGeneration capacity is higher in the 2DS due to great deployment of variable renewables with lower capacity factors. © OECD/IEA 2012
  21. 21. Electricity system flexibilityPower system flexibility expresses the extent to which a power system can modify electricity production or consumption in response to variability, expected or otherwise. ± MW / time © OECD/IEA 2012
  22. 22. Flexibility needs and resources Existing and new flexibility needs can be met by a range ofresources in the electricity system – facilitated by power system markets, operation and hardware. © OECD/IEA 2012
  23. 23. T&D infrastructure investments inthe 4DS and 2DS are similar ...but sectoral allocation differs © OECD/IEA 2012
  24. 24. Smart grid benefits exceed costs by a factor of between 1.5 and 4.5..., but direct benefits of investment in one sector may be found in other sectors. © OECD/IEA 2012
  25. 25. ASEAN ContextLow-carbon electricity is at the core of a sustainable energy system © OECD/IEA 2012
  26. 26. ASEAN : Sectoral Contributions toachieve the 2DS from the 4DSCO2 emissions in the 2DS are brought back to today’s level. © OECD/IEA 2012
  27. 27. ASEAN : Electricity generation in the 4DS and 2DSWhile the electricity mix in the 4DS is dominated by coal, renewablesprovide more than half of the electricity in the 2DS in 2050. © OECD/IEA 2012
  28. 28. Key technologies to decarbonise ASEAN power generationRenewables provide almost half of the CO2 reductions in the power sector inthe 2DS. © OECD/IEA 2012
  29. 29. Regional electricity mixes in the 2DS in 2050 US 4% 24% 22% 6% 15% 18% 12%South Africa 2% 23% 24% 2% 28% 16% 6% Russia 5% 8% 28% 28% 1% 14% 17% Mexico 20% 10% 8% 7% 21% 19% 15% India 19% 14% 17% 16% 21% 6% 7% EU 2% 6% 22% 13% 10% 29% 18% China 7% 21% 24% 14% 10% 15% 9% Brazil 2% 5% 0% 60% 6% 7% 19% ASEAN 25% 14% 5% 18% 6% 10% 22% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Fossil w/o CCS Fossil w CCS Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Other renewablesPortfolios to decarbonise the power sector depend on regional challengesand opportunities. © OECD/IEA 2012
  30. 30. In the 2DS, electricity becomes a near zero carbon fuel by 2050 1 000 900 800g CO2-eq / kWh 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2009 2030 2050 2030 2050 4DS 2DS World European Union United States China India ASEAN Carbon intensity drops by 90% by 2050 in the 2DS . © OECD/IEA 2012
  31. 31. Natural gas is not a panaceaThe global average CO2 intensity from power generation falls belowthe carbon intensity of CCGTs in 2025 in the 2DS; CCS can play a role in reducing emissions from gas © OECD/IEA 2012
  32. 32. Two very different profiles for natural gas use in power generation Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the 2DS and the 4DS. From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.Notes: Natural gas-fired power generation includes generation in power plants equipped with CCS units. Biogas is not included here. © OECD/IEA 2012
  33. 33. Buildings energy consumptionStrong population growth in ASEAN countries will drive energy demand upwards © OECD/IEA 2012
  34. 34. Passenger light-duty vehicle salesPassenger LDV’s are expected to grow significantly in the coming decades. © OECD/IEA 2012
  35. 35. Transport energy use in 2050Shipping energy use is substantial and efficiency improvements are expected to be limited © OECD/IEA 2012
  36. 36. Final Global Comments © OECD/IEA 2012
  37. 37. Clean energy investment pays off Additional Additional investment investment Power Power WithFuel savings Industry price effect Industry Transport Without price effect Residential Transport Commercial UndiscountedTotal savings Fuel savings Residential 3% Biomass Commercial Coal 10% Oil Gas - 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40 USD trillion Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return. © OECD/IEA 2012
  38. 38. Key messages1. A sustainable energy future is still feasible and technologies exist to take us there2. Despite potential of technologies, progress is too slow at the moment3. A clean energy future requires systemic thinking and deployment of a variety of technologies4. It even makes financial sense to do it.5. Government policy is decisive in unlocking the potential © OECD/IEA 2012
  39. 39. For much more, please visitwww.iea.org/etp © OECD/IEA 2012

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