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ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Hazel H. Reinhardt
December 12, 2013
SUMMARY
 Projected enrollment
 Single-family detached housing units projected to
increase by 2,047 units in the next fiv...
SUMMARY
 Immediate effect of the increase in housing units on

middle school and high school enrollments is relatively
sm...
TOTAL ENROLLMENT HISTORY
K-12 TOTAL ENROLLMENT

2004-05

8,091

2005-06

8,397

2006-07

8,585

2007-08

8,662

2008-09

8...
COMPONENTS OF
ENROLLMENT CHANGE
Total

Fall to Fall

#

%

Natural
Increase/Decrease

Net
Migration

2004 to 2005

306

3....
Grade

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

K

639

664

681

605

59...
AVERAGE CLASS SIZE
 “Average” class size
• 681 K-5
• 709 6-8
• 758 9-12
• These “average class sizes point to flat if not...
RESIDENT BIRTHS

RESIDENT LIVE BIRTHS
Year

Minnesota

Carver County

1998

65,207

1,052

1999

65,953

1,086

2000

67,4...
DISTRICT RESIDENT BIRTHS
1998-1999

576

1999-2000

621

2000-2001

664

2001-2002

615

2002-2003

647

2003-2004

658

2...
MACRO TRENDS
 Aging population
• Less mobility
• Decrease in school age population per household
• Shift in size of adult...
PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES
 Cohort survival method
 Projections by grade
 Reflects recent births and current size of grad...
KINDERGARTEN CAPTURE RATES
 Cohort survival method
 Kindergarten Assumptions



Low is 99.2%, the average of the past ...
NET MIGRATION
SCHOOL YEAR TO SCHOOL YEAR
Grade

04 to 05

05 to 06

06 to 07

07 to 08

08 to 09

09 to 10

10 to 11

11 t...
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Year

Low K
Low Mig

Low K
High Mig

High K
Low Mig

High K
High Mig

2013-14

9,246

9,246

9,246
...
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
K-5

6-8

9-12

Total

4,087

2,128

3,031

9,246

Low K/Low Mig

3,743

2,115

3,059

8,917

Low K...
By School
By Attendance Area
GRADE 1-5 ENROLLMENT
School

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

Bluff Creek

477

476

480

492

478

Chanhassen

502

47...
PROJECTED DEVELOPMENT FOR
NEXT FIVE YEARS
Single-Family
Detached

Townhomes

Condos

Carver

786

0

0

Chanhassen

346

3...
PROJECTED SINGLE-FAMILY
DETACHED UNITS
Attendance
Area

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

Total

Bluff Creek

6...
NEW DEVELOPMENT
 637 new single-family detached units in past 3.5 years
 2,047 projected in next 5 years
K-5 RESIDENT YIELD FROM SINGLEFAMILY UNITS
Existing Units
(pre 2010)
Non Movers

2010-June 2013

Movers

New Units

#

Yie...
ATTENDANCE AREA PROJECTIONS
2018-19
RESIDENT STUDENTS ONLY

2013-14

Bluff Creek

Single-Family
Units
486

All Other
Units...
PROJECTION COMPARISON
2018-19
School
589

Attendance Area*
---

Bluff Creek

480

614

Chanhassen

402

516

Chaska

455

...
By School
MIDDLE SCHOOL PROJECTIONS
School

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

Chaska East

707

727

752

758

7...
MIDDLE SCHOOL HOUSING UNIT
PROJECTION
 Immediate effect of new units is small
 205 additional students; some will leave ...
By School
HIGH SCHOOL PROJECTIONS
School

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

Chanhassen

1,613

1,635

1,658

1,6...
HIGH SCHOOL HOUSING UNIT
PROJECTION
 Immediate effect of new units is small
 205 additional students
 Impact after 2018...
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Eastern Carver County Schools School Board Presentation 2013

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Eastern Carver County Schools School Board Presentation 2013

  1. 1. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Hazel H. Reinhardt December 12, 2013
  2. 2. SUMMARY  Projected enrollment  Single-family detached housing units projected to increase by 2,047 units in the next five years  This large increase in housing units creates a divergence in projections made via the cohort survival method and the housing unit method. In 2018-19:  3,809 total K-5 enrollment projected by the cohort model  Reflects the decline in district births and current survival rates  4,606 resident K-5 enrollment via housing starts method  Attendance area specific yields for new units and turnover
  3. 3. SUMMARY  Immediate effect of the increase in housing units on middle school and high school enrollments is relatively small. Most of the effect will come when the elementary students “age” into middle school after 2018-19 and into high school in the 2020s  Eastern Carver County Public School District characterized by a large loss of students through the public options of open enrollment and charter schools  Net loss of about 1,000 students
  4. 4. TOTAL ENROLLMENT HISTORY K-12 TOTAL ENROLLMENT 2004-05 8,091 2005-06 8,397 2006-07 8,585 2007-08 8,662 2008-09 8,630 2009-10 8,838 2010-11 8,908 2011-12 8,976 2012-13 9,179 2013-14 9,246 Excludes Early Childhood but includes the ALC
  5. 5. COMPONENTS OF ENROLLMENT CHANGE Total Fall to Fall # % Natural Increase/Decrease Net Migration 2004 to 2005 306 3.8 138 168 2005 to 2006 188 2.2 66 122 2006 to 2007 77 0.9 2 75 2007 to 2008 -32 0.4 -35 3 2008 to 2009 208 2.4 81 127 2009 to 2010 70 0.8 23 47 2010 to 2011 68 0.8 -22 90 2011 to 2012 203 2.3 45 158 2012 to 2013 67 0.7 4 63
  6. 6. Grade 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 K 639 664 681 605 597 672 645 605 655 678 TOTAL ENROLLMENT 1 668 2 671 3 673 4 727 5 670 6 695 7 727 8 706 9 807 10 748 11 781 12 695 Total 9,246
  7. 7. AVERAGE CLASS SIZE  “Average” class size • 681 K-5 • 709 6-8 • 758 9-12 • These “average class sizes point to flat if not declining enrollment unless kindergarten is larger than today
  8. 8. RESIDENT BIRTHS RESIDENT LIVE BIRTHS Year Minnesota Carver County 1998 65,207 1,052 1999 65,953 1,086 2000 67,451 1,140 2001 66,617 1,183 2002 68,037 1,165 2003 70,053 1,182 2004 70,617 1,253 2005 70,950 1,237 2006 73,515 1,338 2007 73,675 1,269 2008 72,382 1,194 2009 70,617 1,142 2010 68,407 1,186 2011 68,416 1,035
  9. 9. DISTRICT RESIDENT BIRTHS 1998-1999 576 1999-2000 621 2000-2001 664 2001-2002 615 2002-2003 647 2003-2004 658 2004-2005 677 2005-2006 724 2006-2007 715 2007-2008 635 2008-2009 605 2009-2010 605 2010-2011 607 2011-2012 518 2012-2013 552
  10. 10. MACRO TRENDS  Aging population • Less mobility • Decrease in school age population per household • Shift in size of adult age groups  Less demand for single-family detached housing  More births this decade and the next (Gen Y) • Another enrollment cycle (third)   Rising elementary enrollment in the first half of the cycle Another large graduating class about 2040 (end of cycle)
  11. 11. PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES  Cohort survival method  Projections by grade  Reflects recent births and current size of grades  Difficult to calibrate survival rates to reflect additional housing units, especially if a large number of units  Housing starts method  Crude, only a total projection, no projection by grade  Reflects new housing units and turnover  Does not reflect recent births or differences in current grade sizes
  12. 12. KINDERGARTEN CAPTURE RATES  Cohort survival method  Kindergarten Assumptions   Low is 99.2%, the average of the past two years High is 106.8%, this year (fall 2013)
  13. 13. NET MIGRATION SCHOOL YEAR TO SCHOOL YEAR Grade 04 to 05 05 to 06 06 to 07 07 to 08 08 to 09 09 to 10 10 to 11 11 to 12 12 to 13 K-5 139 69 45 16 75 51 17 100 60 6-8 20 14 34 -14 68 32 32 20 -14 9-12 9 39 -4 1 -16 -36 41 38 17 Total 168 122 75 3 127 47 90 158 63
  14. 14. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Year Low K Low Mig Low K High Mig High K Low Mig High K High Mig 2013-14 9,246 9,246 9,246 9,246 2014-15 9,252 9,245 9,298 9,291 2015-16 9,191 9,185 9,285 9,279 2016-17 9,167 9,165 9,309 9,308 2017-18 9,005 9,004 9,190 9,190 2018-19 8,917 8,930 9,146 9,160 2019-20 8,909 8,939 9,192 9,223 2020-21 8,954 8,992 9,291 9,331 2021-22 9,037 9,075 9,432 9,473 2022-23 9,069 9,115 9,525 9,576 2023-24 9,158 9,216 9,680 9,743
  15. 15. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS K-5 6-8 9-12 Total 4,087 2,128 3,031 9,246 Low K/Low Mig 3,743 2,115 3,059 8,917 Low K/High Mig 3,769 2,133 3,027 8,930 High K/Low Mig 3,972 2,115 3,059 9,146 High K/High Mig 4,000 2,133 3,027 9,160 Low K/Low Mig 4,227 1,898 3,033 9,158 Low K/High Mig 4,257 1,935 3,023 9,216 High K/Low Mig 4,548 2,043 3,089 9,680 High K/High Mig 4,581 2,083 3,079 9,743 2013-14 2018-19 2023-24
  16. 16. By School By Attendance Area
  17. 17. GRADE 1-5 ENROLLMENT School 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Bluff Creek 477 476 480 492 478 Chanhassen 502 478 455 407 417 Chaska 505 469 444 428 433 Clover Ridge 672 686 704 709 692 East Union 191 188 199 201 166 Jonathan 499 520 511 501 516 Victoria 590 637 625 607 623 41 84 3,345 3,409 LAA Total 3,436 3,454 3,418 2013-14
  18. 18. PROJECTED DEVELOPMENT FOR NEXT FIVE YEARS Single-Family Detached Townhomes Condos Carver 786 0 0 Chanhassen 346 366 0 Chaska 415* 0* 0 Victoria 445 10 0 1,992 376 0 City Total * A major new mixed residential development (City of Chaska) slated to begin in 2016. Between 200-300 may be built. These units are not included in the above counts
  19. 19. PROJECTED SINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED UNITS Attendance Area 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Total Bluff Creek 67 67 47 56 49 286 Chanhassen 14 14 10 12 10 60 Chaska 0 0 0 0 0 0 Clover Ridge 51 *[30] **[60] [60] [60] 51[261] East Union 110 ***[95] [95] [95] [95] 110[490] Jonathan 104 252 59**[30] [30] [30] 415[505] Victoria 180 202 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 526 535 [660] 179 [364] 68 [253] 59 [244] 1,367 [2,047] Victoria South Total **Less certain as to single-family 455
  20. 20. NEW DEVELOPMENT  637 new single-family detached units in past 3.5 years  2,047 projected in next 5 years
  21. 21. K-5 RESIDENT YIELD FROM SINGLEFAMILY UNITS Existing Units (pre 2010) Non Movers 2010-June 2013 Movers New Units # Yield # Yield # Yield Bluff Creek 1,301 0.21 234 0.30 164 0.34 Chanhassen 2,003 0.14 231 0.28 41 0.24 Chaska 1,374 0.20 196 0.24 33 0.21 Clover Ridge 1,604 0.34 309 0.29 111 0.37 East Union 638 0.25 102 0.31 3 0.33 Jonathan 1,483 0.23 226 0.22 159 0.31 Victoria 1,448 0.27 270 0.36 122 0.52 253 0.15 40 0.10 4 0.00 Victoria South
  22. 22. ATTENDANCE AREA PROJECTIONS 2018-19 RESIDENT STUDENTS ONLY 2013-14 Bluff Creek Single-Family Units 486 All Other Units 128 Total 614 Total 524 Chanhassen 396 120 516 483 Chaska 331 210 541 537 Clover Ridge 737 117 854 790 East Union 351 1 352 193 Jonathan 589 162 751 594 Victoria 870 108 978 703 3,760 846 4,606 3,824 Attendance Area District wide Increase of 782 resident students
  23. 23. PROJECTION COMPARISON 2018-19 School 589 Attendance Area* --- Bluff Creek 480 614 Chanhassen 402 516 Chaska 455 541 Clover Ridge 642 854 East Union 124 352 Jonathan 499 751 Victoria 618 978 LAA 206 Kindergarten 3,809 District wide Difference 797 students 4,606
  24. 24. By School
  25. 25. MIDDLE SCHOOL PROJECTIONS School 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Chaska East 707 727 752 758 765 737 Chaska West 777 799 818 827 808 755 Pioneer Ridge 644 583 559 550 545 559 LAA Sum 84 2,128 2,109 2,129 2,135 2,118 2,051
  26. 26. MIDDLE SCHOOL HOUSING UNIT PROJECTION  Immediate effect of new units is small  205 additional students; some will leave middle school before others arrive  Large impact after 2018-19 as elementary students “age” into middle school
  27. 27. By School
  28. 28. HIGH SCHOOL PROJECTIONS School 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Chanhassen 1,613 1,635 1,658 1,665 1,639 1,669 Chaska 1,346 1,366 1,334 1,324 1,284 1,303 3,045 3,032 3,034 2,970 3,027 IAA District wide 72 3,031
  29. 29. HIGH SCHOOL HOUSING UNIT PROJECTION  Immediate effect of new units is small  205 additional students  Impact after 2018-19 and continuing into the 2020s as elementary students “age” into high school

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