2012 Central Texas Education Profile

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Presented by Jim Van Overschelde on April 23, 2012 at the Food for Thought Luncheon at Region XIII Education Service Center in Austin, Texas

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  • We use publicly available aggregated data and ERC student-level data.
  • Source: AskTED for school locations
  • http://www.texasindustryprofiles.com/apps/swap/asp/socTable.asp20 out of 43 are in the STEM fields(employment for these occupations is expected to increase 23%)Projected employment demands through 2018 due to industry growth or employee turnover from 2008 to 2018
  • 126% in Travis County for children 5 and under!
  • 59% for State
  • 2010 Census shows Whites account for <50% of all births.
  • Note also that Grade 11-12 growing fast too, which implies the efforts to keep students in school is working!
  • http://www.elltx.org/bilingual_esl.html , accessed 3/9/12.2009:Texas had 815,998 ELL studentsUS had 2,654000 students aged 5-17 that had difficulty speaking English at school
  • Low income students starting behind. Are they catching up? Are the gaps closing?
  • Students had to be enrolled in 2009-10 and 2010-11 in order to be included in analysis.
  • Includes only ELLs in districts that are required to have a bilingual program. Requirement determine by counting ELLs by grade and language, and where counts >=20 per state law.
  • One way districts are working to close gaps is…
  • Another way we are working to close gaps is…Recognized HS, <20% econ dis, 1900 tested studentsAA HS, 50% econ dis, 1300 tested studentsRecognized HS, 80% econ dis, ~1400 studentsAA MS, >80% econ dis, 500 students
  • Most HS principals report anecdotally that attendance is a problem. Here are the objective data to support this.
  • CTX has more absences overall and even worse in 12th than rest of TX; Also notice that 9th and 11th have same num of absences, dip in 10th and most in 12th.
  • They are missing more than a month of school – almost an entire 6-week grading period!
  • 83% of Retained Freshmen Failed Math TAKS
  • 4-year ranged from 62% to 98%!
  • 2012 Central Texas Education Profile

    1. 1. 2012 CENTRAL TEXASEDUCATION PROFILE Made possible through the investment of: www.e3alliance.org
    2. 2. Agenda• Who is E3 Alliance?• Central Texas Economy• Educational Overview• Student Readiness & Success
    3. 3. E3 Alliance is a Catalyst For Educational Change in Central Texas Mission E3 Alliance uses objective data and focused community collaboration to align our education systems so all students succeed and lead Central Texas to economic prosperity E3 serves as the Central Texas regional P-16 Council © E3 Alliance, 2012
    4. 4. What We Don’t Do• Run school programs• Provide direct services• Write curriculum• Make decisions that school boards or leaders make for their districts We are a catalyst for positive change in education © E3 Alliance, 2012
    5. 5. E3 Alliance Model for ChangeUsing Information to Change Practice • Improved Student Outcomes • Economic Prosperity Regional Strategic PlanBuilding Community Will for Change © E3 Alliance, 2012
    6. 6. Education Research Centers • Authorized in 2006 • UT Austin ERC • Linked data from TEA, THECB, & TWC going back to early 1990s allow long-term student tracking • Contains all 6.3M P-20 students in the state – can answer questions no district or institution ever could • One of the first sources of student data along the entire pipeline in the country • Brought over $11M in funded research to the state of Texas; $6.5M in queue © E3 Alliance, 2012
    7. 7. CENTRAL TEXAS ECONOMY
    8. 8. Central Texas Region © E3 Alliance, 2012
    9. 9. Central Texas Better than Texas and US during Great Recession 12% Unemployment Rates for Central Texas, Texas and the USA 10%Unemployment Rate 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% CTX Unemp. Rate TX Unemp. Rate US Unemp. Rate Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts & US Labor Statistics © E3 Alliance, 2012
    10. 10. Higher Education = Higher Employment Unemployment Rate for Persons Age 25 and Older, 2010 16% 14% 14.9%Unemployment Rate 12% 10% 10.6% 10.3% 8% 9.1% 8.4% 6% 7.4% 4% 4.7% 4.1% 2% 0% Less than High High School Some College or Bachelors degree School graduate graduate Associates degree or higher US Texas Source: US Department of Labor and Census Bureau © E3 Alliance, 2012
    11. 11. Thriving CTX Economy Will Rely on Bachelor Degrees and STEM Education Top 43 Targeted Occupations in Texas, 2008-2018 Educational Number of Targeted Typical Salary Requirements Targeted Occupations in Range Occupations STEMWork Experience in a 3 1 $32,000 - $57,000Related OccupationOn-the-Job Training 6 0 $33,000 - $67,000Associates Degree or 6 3 $40,000 - $64,000Vocational Certificate Bachelor Degree 28 16 $48,000 - $94,000 or Higher Source: Texas Workforce Commission © E3 Alliance, 2012
    12. 12. EDUCATIONAL OVERVIEW
    13. 13. Texas Largest Growth by State Enrollment Growth Rate, 2001 to 2011 Texas Students 21% CTX Students 40%CTX Low Income Students 93% CTX ELLs 139% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Source: E3 Alliance analysis of AEIS data from TEA © E3 Alliance, 2012
    14. 14. Central Texas Student Population Central Texas Schools and Student Enrollment, 2011-2012 Schools Students35 Independent School Districts 443 299,73815 Charter Organizations 37 6,978Higher Education Institutions 8 127,203 Total = 433,919Source: E3 Alliance analysis of TEA’s AEIS data © E3 Alliance, 2012
    15. 15. Low Income Student Enrollment Doubled Enrollment Growth Rate, 2001 to 2011 Texas Students 21% CTX Students 40%CTX Low Income Students 93% CTX ELLs 139% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Source: E3 Alliance analysis of AEIS data from TEA © E3 Alliance, 2012
    16. 16. Half of Student Enrollment Low IncomePercentage of Students Who are Low Income vs. Non-Low Income, Central Texas, 2000-01 and 2010-11 2000-01 2010-11 Low Income, Non- 35% Low Income, Low Income, 51% 49% Non-Low Income, 65% Source: E3 Alliance analysis of AEIS data © E3 Alliance, 2012
    17. 17. District Income Levels10 Years Ago © E3 Alliance, 2012
    18. 18. District Income LevelsLast Year © E3 Alliance, 2012
    19. 19. Large Increase in Hispanic Student Enrollment Percentage of Student Population, by Ethnicity, Central Texas, 2000-01 and 2010-11 2000-01 2010-11 White, Hispanic, White, Hispanic, 52% 35% 40% 47% Black, 10% Black, Asian, 9% Asian, Native, 4% Native, 3% 0% 0% Source: E3 Alliance analysis of AEIS data © E3 Alliance, 2012
    20. 20. Largest Increase in Younger Student Enrollment Growth in Student Enrollment, 30,000 Central Texas, 2000-01 and 2010-11 25,000Number of Students 20,000 15,000 2010-11 2000-01 10,000 5,000 - PK KG 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Grade Level Source: E3 Alliance analysis of AEIS data © E3 Alliance, 2012
    21. 21. Central Texas ELL Enrollment is Growing 7 Times Faster than the Texas Student Enrollment Enrollment Growth Rate, 2001 to 2011 Texas Students 21% CTX Students 40%CTX Low Income Students 93% CTX ELLs 139% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Source: E3 Alliance analysis of AEIS data from TEA © E3 Alliance, 2012
    22. 22. English Language Learners• ELLs are students who are learning English as another language; once successful, they are excluded from the ELL group• 831,904 ELL students in Texas (2010-11) –  (Texas and Central Texas) – Texas has more ELLs than 28 states have students – 91% speak Spanish – Over 120 languages are spoken – Vast majority are US born Source: TEA website, March 2012 © E3 Alliance, 2012
    23. 23. ELL Enrollment is Highest in Urban Center 2000-01 2010-11Source: E3 Alliance analysis of AEIS data from TEA © E3 Alliance, 2012
    24. 24. Central Texas ELL Collaborative © E3 Alliance, 2012
    25. 25. Summary of Findings Dramatic increases in: 1) # of Students 2) Low Income Students 3) Hispanic Students 4) Youngest Students 5) English Language Learners © E3 Alliance, 2012
    26. 26. EARLY CHILDHOODSCHOOL READINESS
    27. 27. Kindergarten Readiness Collaborative © E3 Alliance, 2012
    28. 28. Half of Central Texas Students Are Not Ready for Kindergarten Kindergarten Readiness, Central Texas, 2011 Not Ready, Ready, 50% 50%Source: E3 Alliance analysis of CTGSR assessment data © E3 Alliance, 2012
    29. 29. Pre-K Programs Associated with Higher Kindergarten ReadinessPercentage of Students Meeting Kindergarten Readiness Components, Low Income vs. Non-Low Income, Fall 2011 100% 80%Kindergarteners Percentage of 60% Statistically Equal 63% 40% 42% 45% 20% 19% 0% Low Income Non-Low Income No Pre-K Any Pre-K Source: CTGSR assessment data, un-weighted sample © E3 Alliance, 2012
    30. 30. 75% of Eligible 4 year olds Attend Public Pre-K Programs 100% Enrollment in Pre-K Programs, Fall 2011Percentage of Eligible Children 31% 25% 80% 75% 60% 69% 40% 20% 0% Texas Central Texas In Public Pre-K Not in Public Pre-K Source: 2010 and 2011 PEIMS enrollment data at UT ERC © E3 Alliance, 2012
    31. 31. ELEMENTARY SCHOOLREADINESS & SUCCESS
    32. 32. Achievement Gaps Appear to be Closing Grade 5 Reading TAKS Scores, Grade 5 Math TAKS Scores, Central Texas, 2003 through 2011 Central Texas, 2003 through 2011 100% 100%Percentage Who Met Minimum Standard 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Test Year Test Year Hispanic African American White Low Income Hispanic African American White Low Income Source: TEA district-level TAKS data © E3 Alliance, 2012
    33. 33. But, Gaps are Persistent – at ALL Grades Grade 5 Reading TAKS Scores Grade 5 Math TAKS Scores Central Texas, 2003 Through 2011 Central Texas, 2003 Through 2011 2500 2500Average Reading TAKS Score Average Math TAKS Score 2400 2400 2300 2300 2200 2200 2100 2100 2000 2000 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Test Year Test Year Hispanic Black White Low Income Hispanic Black White Low Income Source: E3 Alliance analysis of TEA district-level TAKS data © E3 Alliance, 2012
    34. 34. Few Students are Retained in Grade 5 5%Percentage of Students Retained Student Retention Rates by Grade Level, Central Texas, 2009-10 to 2010-11 4% 3% 2.7% 2% 2.2% 1% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0% K 1 2 3 4 5 Grade Level Source: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS 2010 and 2011 enrollment data at UT ERC © E3 Alliance, 2012
    35. 35. ELL Students are Concentrated in Bilingual Programs ELL Student Enrollment by Language Program, 90,000 by Grade Level, Fall 2011 80,000 70,000Number of ELLs 60,000 ESL 50,000 40,000 BIL 30,000 20,000 Neither 10,000 - Pre-K K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Grade Level 3 Source: E Alliance analysis of 2010-11 PEIMS data from UT ERC © E3 Alliance, 2012
    36. 36. Special Education Services Lowest for ELLs in Bilingual Programs Special Education Participation by ELL Program, 2010-11 25%English Language Learners 20% Percentage of 15% ESL Bilingual 10% Neither Non-ELL 5% 0% Pre-K K 1 2 3 4 5 Grade Level Source: E3 Alliance analysis of 2010-11 PEIMS data from UT ERC © E3 Alliance, 2012
    37. 37. Summary of Findings • Low income children in PK are equally K-Ready • Full-day PK => Higher Enrollment • Achievement gaps persist • Grade 5 is NOT high- retention grade • ELLs in bilingual programs better off © E3 Alliance, 2012
    38. 38. MIDDLE SCHOOLREADINESS & SUCCESS
    39. 39. Achievement Gaps• Persist• BUT, gaps are closing faster then in earlier grades
    40. 40. • Helping middle school students reach college & career readiness• 8 schools participated in 2011• All teachers receiving extensive training• Close to 1 in 4 students is a struggling reader © E3 Alliance, 2012
    41. 41. MS & HS Bright Spots, Reading/ELA StateAverage Average Low Growth High Growth Growth © E3 Alliance, 2012
    42. 42. HIGH SCHOOLREADINESS & SUCCESS
    43. 43. HS Students Miss 2+ Weeks of School Student Absences by School Level, Central Texas, 2009-10 15Average Days Absent 10 11.3 7.4 5 6.6 0 Elementary School Middle School High School Source: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS data at UT ERC © E3 Alliance, 2012
    44. 44. Central Texas Student Miss More School Student Absences by Grade Level, 14 Central Texas vs. Texas, 2009-10 14 12Average Days Absent 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 10 6 Texas 4 Central TX 2 0 9 10 Grade Level 11 12 Source: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS data at UT ERC © E3 Alliance, 2012
    45. 45. Grade 9 Retention is Dramatic Central Texas Students, by Grade Level, 2010-11 30,000 1 in 10 Freshmen are 25,000 Retained StudentsStudent Enrollment 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - PK KG Gr1 Gr2 Gr3 Gr4 Gr5 Gr6 Gr7 Gr8 Gr9 Gr10 Gr11 Gr12 Source: E3 Alliance analysis of AEIS data © E3 Alliance, 2012
    46. 46. Retained Freshmen Missed 5 Weeks of School Absences for First Time 9th Graders in 2006-07 Average Number of Absences 25 24 20 15 10 5 6 0 Retained in 9th Promoted to 10th Status in 2007-2008 School Year Source: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS data at UT ERC © E3 Alliance, 2012
    47. 47. Only 17% of Retained Freshmen Passed TAKS Math 100% Percentage of Students Passing Math TAKS, Central Texas, 2006-07Percentage of Students 80% 74% 60% 57 Percentage Point Difference 40% 20% 17% 0% Retained in 9th Promoted to 10th 2008 Student Status Source: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS and TAKS data at UT ERC © E3 Alliance, 2012
    48. 48. Retained Freshman 10x More Likely to Dropout 50% Percentage of Students Dropping Out in 9th Grade, 40% Central Texas, 2010-11 Percentage of Students Dropping Out 30% 20% 10 Times 19% Difference 10% 1.7% 0% Retained in 9th Promoted to 10th Source: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS and TAKS data at UT ERC © E3 Alliance, 2012
    49. 49. Graduation Rates Improving Slowly Percentage of 9th Graders Graduating Within 4 & 5 Years, Central Texas, Classes of 2007 through 2010Percentage of 9th Graders 100 90 80 85 84 86 80 79 82 70 76 60 4-Year Rate 50 40 5-Year Rate 30 20 10 0 Class of 2007 Class of 2008 Class of 2009 Class of 2010 Source: E3 Alliance analysis of AEIS data © E3 Alliance, 2012
    50. 50. Summary of Findings • 1 in 4 MS students is struggling reader • E3 is working to identify bright spot campuses • Poor attendance associated with host of negative academic outcomes © E3 Alliance, 2012
    51. 51. POST-SECONDARYREADINESS & SUCCESS
    52. 52. Only 1 in 4 Freshmen College and Career Ready 2003-04 9th Grade Cohort Milestones to College Enrollment, Central Texas, Class of 2007 20,000 9th Graders in 2003-04 18,200Number of Students 15,000 Graduated on Time 11,700 (64%) On-Time Graduate with RHSP or DAP RHSP/DAP On-Time 10,000 9,640 (53%) Graduate & Took SAT or ACT 7,600 (42%) 5,000 RHSP/DAP Graduate & College Ready in Math & ELA 4,540 (25%) 0 Source: E3 Alliance analysis of TEA ad hoc data © E3 Alliance, 2012
    53. 53. Gaps in College Readiness Exist 100% TAKS College and Career Readiness Rates of Texas Graduates, by Ethnicity, Central Texas, Class of 2011 80%Percentage of Graduates 82% 80% 60% 59% English 55% 52% Language 40% Arts (ELA) 42% 20% Math 0% African American Hispanic White Source: E3 Alliance analysis of AEIS data © E3 Alliance, 2012
    54. 54. African American & Hispanic Students Receive More Minimum DiplomasTypes of Diplomas Received by Ethnicity, Central Texas, Class of 2010 100% 7% 8% 22%Percentage of Graduates 80% Distinguished 60% 70% 74% Recommended 66% 40% Minimum 20% 23% 18% 12% 0% African American Hispanic White Source: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS data at UT ERC © E3 Alliance, 2012
    55. 55. Distinguished Diploma Shows Highest Degree Completion CTX 2004 HS Graduates Enrolling in 100% Higher Education Fall/Spring after GraduationPercentage of Graduates 80% 71% 61% 60% 45% 40% 26% 21% 20% 2% 0% Minimum Recommended Distinguished High School Diploma Enrolled IHE 6-Year Degree Source: E3 Alliance analysis of Data at UT ERC © E3 Alliance, 2012
    56. 56. Direct to College Enrollment = Higher Degree Attainment Degree Attainment Within 6 Years, 50% Central Texas, Class of 2004Percentage of Graduates 40% Earning Credential 35.6% 30% Non-Low Income 20% 20.2% 19.7% Low Income 10% 5.9% 0% 2004 High School Graduates Direct Enrollment into Postsecondary Source: E3 Alliance analysis of state data at UT ERC © E3 Alliance, 2012
    57. 57. Conclusions • Region’s demographics changing dramatically • Performance improving and gaps closing in later grades • Attendance key to success • Now time for qualitative exploration of bright spots • Distinguished diploma = most likely to graduate from college/university © E3 Alliance, 2012
    58. 58. Next Food For ThoughtAttendance: Using Datato Drive Action & Policy Late July © E3 Alliance, 2012
    59. 59. The conclusions of this research do not necessarily reflect the opinions or official position of the Texas Education Agency, the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, or the State of Texas. www.e3alliance.org/moreinfo

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