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Lukas Brun & Bill Lester
Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness
Duke University
October 19, 2012
Website:http://cggc.duke.edu/
©2013 Duke CGGC
Recent Clients
Overview
• Summary of Methods, Key Terms, and Activities Modeled
• Summary Impacts
• Results by Major Activity
• Fiscal Impacts
© 2013 Duke CGGC
Methods
• Goal: Calculate the economic activity generated annually by the High Point
Market
– capture all impacts associated with the Market
– activity that would not have occurred ‘but-for’ the Market
• Study area: 75 mile radius from High Point, NC
– includes 22 NC counties and 8 in VA
• Methodology:
– IMPLAN 3.0 (IMpact Analysis for PLANners) software
– Original Survey
• Web-based survey of 1,668 companies conducted July 3-16, 2013.
• Key purposes of the survey:
– Estimate sales figures generated at the Market
– Estimate vendor & visitor spending figures by major category
– Estimate share of companies that manufacture within the study area
– Supplementary data from HPMA and NC Dept. of Commerce
© 2013 Duke CGGC
Key Terms
• Direct: Impacts resulting from the increase in final demand in a
given economic sector
• Indirect: Impacts resulting from industry to industry purchasing
(i.e., business to business/supplier relationships)
• Induced: Impacts resulting from increases in household spending
© 2013 Duke CGGC
Activities Modeled
• Visitor Spending
• HPMA budgeted expenditures
• Vendor Spending
• Furniture and related sales from the Market
• Rental income from vendor leasing
© 2013 Duke CGGC
Total Economic Impact: $5.39 Billion
Category Amount
Visitor Spending $ 604 Million
HPMA Spending $ 8 Million
Vendor Spending $ 452 Million
Furniture Sales $4,229 Million
Vendor Rents* $ 95 Million
Total $ 5.39 Billion
* local portion only
© 2013 Duke CGGC
Jobs Created
Category # of Jobs
Visitor Spending 6,189
HPMA 90
Vendor Spending 4,374
Vendor Rents 832
subtotal 11,485
Furniture Sales 26,131
Total 37,616
© 2013 Duke CGGC
Fiscal Impact
Type Amount
Federal $327 Million
State of North Carolina $123 Million
Guilford/High Point $25.5 Million
© 2013 Duke CGGC
Activity 1: Visitor Spending
• In 2012, the HP Market attracted 150,000 visitors
• GIS analysis of zip codes indicated that 116,000 were non-local
• Resulting in 622,762 visitor days per-year
• Used NC Dept. of Commerce Tourism figures for average visitor spending
© 2013 Duke CGGC
Impact Type Employment Labor Income Value Added Output
Direct Effect 4,040 $109,749,029 $185,402,534 $354,801,848
Indirect Effect 1,026 $43,208,450 $69,970,714 $124,415,437
Induced Effect 1,124 $42,165,380 $75,806,342 $124,927,343
Total Effect 6,189 $195,122,859 $331,179,591 $604,144,628
Activity 2: HPMA Budget
• Modeled direct annual spending of the HPMA
• Categorized budget into transportation, parking, marketing and general
organizational services
• Excluded capital expenditures
© 2013 Duke CGGC
Impact Type Employment Labor Income Value Added Output
Direct Effect 63 $1,826,935 $2,741,970 $4,648,565
Indirect Effect 10 $405,625 $676,379 $1,179,450
Induced Effect 17 $618,145 $1,112,560 $1,832,122
Total Effect 90 $2,850,705 $4,530,909 $7,660,138
©2013 Duke CGGC
Activity 3: Vendor Expenses
• Figures obtained directly from survey
– Construction/venue set up $211,186,800
– Photography $39,858,581
– Printed materials $25,568,060
– Other marketing expenses $47,685,725
– Catering $24,006,169
Impact Type Employment Labor Income Value Added Output
Direct Effect 2,808 $100,098,361 $133,432,002 $278,256,098
Indirect Effect 632 $26,534,879 $40,460,372 $69,652,303
Induced Effect 934 $35,006,279 $62,980,188 $103,741,166
Total Effect 4,374 $161,639,519 $236,872,561 $451,649,567
Activity 4: Market Sales
• Used survey response data to calculate the total sales garnered from the
market (or within 90 days)
Impact Type Employment Labor Income Value Added Output
Direct Effect 13,920 $630,760,911 $1,111,034,805 $2,680,148,872
Indirect Effect 5,624 $268,274,110 $426,515,902 $816,681,056
Induced Effect 6,587 $247,255,774 $444,259,652 $732,421,143
Total Effect 26,131 $1,146,290,795 $1,981,810,359 $4,229,251,072
© 2013 Duke CGGC
Activity 5: Rental Income
• Expert interview with Major Leasing Company Associate who controls 5.4
million sq. ft.
• Total: Calculated as IMPLAN industry impact for Real Estate
Establishments
• Allowed IMPLAN to estimate share of local ownership
Impact Type Employment Labor Income Value Added Output
Direct Effect 630 $6,830,623 $51,166,612 $71,500,257
Indirect Effect 122 $4,050,589 $8,334,727 $14,493,809
Induced Effect 80 $3,013,160 $5,423,373 $8,930,813
Total Effect 832 $13,894,371 $64,924,712 $94,924,879
© 2013 Duke CGGC
©2013 Duke CGGC
North Carolina Fiscal Impact
Type of Tax Amount (2013$)
Sales Taxes $44,031,909
Income Taxes $32,399,763
Dividends $19,537,895
Other Taxes on Production and Imports $15,331,823
Corporate Profits Tax $7,616,622
Social Insurance Taxes $2,398,406
Motor Vehicle License Revenue $1,883,210
Total State Revenue $123,199,628
Guilford/High Point Fiscal Impact
• Includes both county and municipal governments
• Excludes impact of furniture sales (Activity 4)
• Modeled impact of 75% (by assumption) of Visitor and Vendor Spending in
Guilford County
• Adjusted sales tax for local portion (2% local / 4.75% state)
Type of Tax Amount (2013$)
Sales Taxes (local portion only) $6,649,286
Property Taxes $17,246,014
Fines and Fees $1,586,886
Other Personal Taxes/License revenue $49,923
Total Guilford County $25,532,109
© 2013 Duke CGGC
THANK YOU
Questions?
Lukas Brun
Senior Research Analyst
lukas.brun@duke.edu

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The Economic Impact of the High Point Market

  • 1. Lukas Brun & Bill Lester Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness Duke University October 19, 2012
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  • 5. Overview • Summary of Methods, Key Terms, and Activities Modeled • Summary Impacts • Results by Major Activity • Fiscal Impacts © 2013 Duke CGGC
  • 6. Methods • Goal: Calculate the economic activity generated annually by the High Point Market – capture all impacts associated with the Market – activity that would not have occurred ‘but-for’ the Market • Study area: 75 mile radius from High Point, NC – includes 22 NC counties and 8 in VA • Methodology: – IMPLAN 3.0 (IMpact Analysis for PLANners) software – Original Survey • Web-based survey of 1,668 companies conducted July 3-16, 2013. • Key purposes of the survey: – Estimate sales figures generated at the Market – Estimate vendor & visitor spending figures by major category – Estimate share of companies that manufacture within the study area – Supplementary data from HPMA and NC Dept. of Commerce © 2013 Duke CGGC
  • 7. Key Terms • Direct: Impacts resulting from the increase in final demand in a given economic sector • Indirect: Impacts resulting from industry to industry purchasing (i.e., business to business/supplier relationships) • Induced: Impacts resulting from increases in household spending © 2013 Duke CGGC
  • 8. Activities Modeled • Visitor Spending • HPMA budgeted expenditures • Vendor Spending • Furniture and related sales from the Market • Rental income from vendor leasing © 2013 Duke CGGC
  • 9. Total Economic Impact: $5.39 Billion Category Amount Visitor Spending $ 604 Million HPMA Spending $ 8 Million Vendor Spending $ 452 Million Furniture Sales $4,229 Million Vendor Rents* $ 95 Million Total $ 5.39 Billion * local portion only © 2013 Duke CGGC
  • 10. Jobs Created Category # of Jobs Visitor Spending 6,189 HPMA 90 Vendor Spending 4,374 Vendor Rents 832 subtotal 11,485 Furniture Sales 26,131 Total 37,616 © 2013 Duke CGGC
  • 11. Fiscal Impact Type Amount Federal $327 Million State of North Carolina $123 Million Guilford/High Point $25.5 Million © 2013 Duke CGGC
  • 12. Activity 1: Visitor Spending • In 2012, the HP Market attracted 150,000 visitors • GIS analysis of zip codes indicated that 116,000 were non-local • Resulting in 622,762 visitor days per-year • Used NC Dept. of Commerce Tourism figures for average visitor spending © 2013 Duke CGGC Impact Type Employment Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 4,040 $109,749,029 $185,402,534 $354,801,848 Indirect Effect 1,026 $43,208,450 $69,970,714 $124,415,437 Induced Effect 1,124 $42,165,380 $75,806,342 $124,927,343 Total Effect 6,189 $195,122,859 $331,179,591 $604,144,628
  • 13. Activity 2: HPMA Budget • Modeled direct annual spending of the HPMA • Categorized budget into transportation, parking, marketing and general organizational services • Excluded capital expenditures © 2013 Duke CGGC Impact Type Employment Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 63 $1,826,935 $2,741,970 $4,648,565 Indirect Effect 10 $405,625 $676,379 $1,179,450 Induced Effect 17 $618,145 $1,112,560 $1,832,122 Total Effect 90 $2,850,705 $4,530,909 $7,660,138
  • 14. ©2013 Duke CGGC Activity 3: Vendor Expenses • Figures obtained directly from survey – Construction/venue set up $211,186,800 – Photography $39,858,581 – Printed materials $25,568,060 – Other marketing expenses $47,685,725 – Catering $24,006,169 Impact Type Employment Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 2,808 $100,098,361 $133,432,002 $278,256,098 Indirect Effect 632 $26,534,879 $40,460,372 $69,652,303 Induced Effect 934 $35,006,279 $62,980,188 $103,741,166 Total Effect 4,374 $161,639,519 $236,872,561 $451,649,567
  • 15. Activity 4: Market Sales • Used survey response data to calculate the total sales garnered from the market (or within 90 days) Impact Type Employment Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 13,920 $630,760,911 $1,111,034,805 $2,680,148,872 Indirect Effect 5,624 $268,274,110 $426,515,902 $816,681,056 Induced Effect 6,587 $247,255,774 $444,259,652 $732,421,143 Total Effect 26,131 $1,146,290,795 $1,981,810,359 $4,229,251,072 © 2013 Duke CGGC
  • 16. Activity 5: Rental Income • Expert interview with Major Leasing Company Associate who controls 5.4 million sq. ft. • Total: Calculated as IMPLAN industry impact for Real Estate Establishments • Allowed IMPLAN to estimate share of local ownership Impact Type Employment Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 630 $6,830,623 $51,166,612 $71,500,257 Indirect Effect 122 $4,050,589 $8,334,727 $14,493,809 Induced Effect 80 $3,013,160 $5,423,373 $8,930,813 Total Effect 832 $13,894,371 $64,924,712 $94,924,879 © 2013 Duke CGGC
  • 17. ©2013 Duke CGGC North Carolina Fiscal Impact Type of Tax Amount (2013$) Sales Taxes $44,031,909 Income Taxes $32,399,763 Dividends $19,537,895 Other Taxes on Production and Imports $15,331,823 Corporate Profits Tax $7,616,622 Social Insurance Taxes $2,398,406 Motor Vehicle License Revenue $1,883,210 Total State Revenue $123,199,628
  • 18. Guilford/High Point Fiscal Impact • Includes both county and municipal governments • Excludes impact of furniture sales (Activity 4) • Modeled impact of 75% (by assumption) of Visitor and Vendor Spending in Guilford County • Adjusted sales tax for local portion (2% local / 4.75% state) Type of Tax Amount (2013$) Sales Taxes (local portion only) $6,649,286 Property Taxes $17,246,014 Fines and Fees $1,586,886 Other Personal Taxes/License revenue $49,923 Total Guilford County $25,532,109 © 2013 Duke CGGC
  • 19. THANK YOU Questions? Lukas Brun Senior Research Analyst lukas.brun@duke.edu