SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 17
Download to read offline
Global	
  Value	
  Chain	
  Analysis	
  of	
  Food	
  Security	
  and	
  Food	
  
Staples	
  for	
  Major	
  Energy-­‐	
  Expor?ng	
  Na?ons	
  in	
  the	
  Middle	
  
East	
  and	
  North	
  Africa:	
  	
  
Russia	
  Focus	
  
Ghada	
  Ahmed	
  
Danny	
  Hamrick	
  
	
  
SMA	
  Lecture	
  Series	
  
Tuesday	
  September	
  8th,	
  2015	
  
	
  
1	
  
•  Mul$-­‐year	
  project	
  supported	
  by	
  US	
  Dept.	
  of	
  Defense	
  MINERVA	
  
Ini?a?ve	
  and	
  Army	
  Research	
  Office	
  for	
  University-­‐Led	
  Research	
  	
  
•  Collabora$on	
  with	
  the	
  Nicholas	
  School	
  of	
  the	
  Environment	
  to	
  
study	
  food	
  security	
  in	
  the	
  Middle	
  East	
  and	
  North	
  Africa	
  (MENA)	
  
•  Rank	
  food	
  security	
  of	
  MENA	
  countries	
  based	
  on	
  mul?ple	
  
variables	
  and	
  data	
  sources	
  
•  Apply	
  GVC	
  approach	
  to	
  iden$fy	
  vulnerabili$es	
  and	
  leverage	
  
points	
  in	
  key	
  food	
  commodi?es	
  in	
  MENA	
  countries	
  
•  Iden$fy	
  risks	
  and	
  strategic	
  op$ons	
  to	
  improve	
  food	
  security	
  in	
  
the	
  region	
  
Minerva	
  Project	
  Overview	
  
2	
  
GVC	
  Analysis	
  
	
  
•  Trace	
  the	
  geographic	
  spread	
  of	
  produc?on	
  
•  Map	
  the	
  ecosystem	
  of	
  firms,	
  ins?tu?ons	
  &	
  policies	
  
•  Analyze	
  governance	
  structures	
  &	
  enabling	
  environment	
  
•  Determine	
  upgrading	
  trajectories	
  &	
  boFlenecks	
  
•  Address	
  economic,	
  social	
  &	
  environmental	
  challenges	
  
Inputs	
   Processing	
   Marke?ng	
  Produc?on	
  
3	
  
Wheat Global Value Chain
Inputs
R&D
Seeds
Fertilizer
Pesticide
Machines
Soft, Hard, Durum wheat
Smallholders
Large farms
Cleaning
Elevators
Feed Milling
Livestock
production
Food
manufacturers
Wholesale
Supermarkets &
Grocers
Production Processing Marketing
Blending
Trade
Trading companies
Domestic
International
Drying
Mills
Flour Milling
Packaging
Offshore production
Labor
Supporting activities and institutions
Government Regulations Futures Trading Food aid Trade Policies
Financial Intermediaries Infrastructure
Logistics
Land
Water
Storage
Blending
Bakeries
4	
  
Algeria	
  	
  
	
  has	
  imported	
  
16.6%	
  
of	
  MENA’s	
  
wheat	
  since	
  
2007	
  
Different	
  regions	
  within	
  MENA	
  rely	
  on	
  different	
  countries	
  as	
  their	
  leading	
  source	
  of	
  imported	
  
wheat.	
  Depending	
  on	
  the	
  country,	
  these	
  rela?onships	
  have	
  persisted	
  since	
  2007	
  
Morocco	
  
has	
  imported	
  
9.3%	
  of	
  
MENA’s	
  wheat	
  
since	
  2007	
  
Egypt	
  
has	
  
imported
25.9%	
  
of	
  MENA’s	
  
wheat	
  
since	
  2007	
  
France	
  Russia	
   Australia	
  No	
  s?ckiness	
  
Libya	
  
Syria	
  
Mauritania	
  
Saudi	
  Arabia	
  
Iran	
  Iraq	
  
Wheat Procurement Across MENA	
  
5	
  
Dependency	
  on	
  Russian	
  Trade	
  
6	
  
Climate	
   Policy	
  
Poli?cal	
  
Tension	
  
Stability	
  	
  
MENA	
  
	
  Commonwealth	
  of	
  
Independent	
  States	
  
Ukraine,	
  	
  
Bal?c	
  countries	
  	
  
	
  
Russian	
  Wheat	
  Policy	
  Timeline	
  
7	
  
1980s	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  1990s	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  2000s	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  2006	
   	
  	
  2008 	
  	
  	
  2010 	
  	
  	
  	
  2014	
  
Soviet	
  Union	
  was	
  a	
  
large	
  grain	
  importer	
  
to	
  support	
  
protected	
  livestock	
  
sector	
  
Market	
  liberaliza?on	
  led	
  
to	
  decrease	
  in	
  livestock	
  
sector	
  subsidies	
  led	
  to	
  
decrease	
  in	
  need	
  for	
  
animal	
  feed,	
  became	
  
small	
  grain	
  exporter	
  and	
  
meat	
  importer	
  
Improvements	
  in	
  grain	
  
yields,	
  despite	
  a	
  drop	
  in	
  
ag	
  subsidies,	
  increased	
  
domes?c	
  supply	
  allowing	
  
for	
  more	
  exports,	
  
emerged	
  as	
  a	
  leading	
  
exporter.	
  Agroholdings	
  
emerge	
  
World	
  food	
  prices	
  
surge,	
  farmers	
  
return	
  to	
  fallow	
  land,	
  
GOR	
  increase	
  
support	
  to	
  ag	
  sector,	
  
livestock	
  sector	
  
receives	
  bulk	
  of	
  
benefits	
  
World	
  economic	
  
crisis	
  hits	
  Russia,	
  
places	
  an	
  export	
  
tax	
  on	
  wheat	
  	
  
Drought	
  causes	
  GOR	
  to	
  
ban	
  exports	
  in	
  August	
  
2010	
  –	
  June	
  2011.	
  GOV	
  
also	
  required	
  all	
  
traders	
  to	
  abrogate	
  
contracts	
  with	
  foreign	
  
buyers,	
  produc?on	
  
decreases	
  
Russia	
  absorbs	
  Crimea	
  &	
  
over	
  2million	
  ppl,	
  bans	
  ag	
  
imports	
  (poultry	
  &	
  beef)	
  
from	
  the	
  West	
  and	
  
imposes	
  stringent	
  export	
  
controls	
  that	
  halts	
  wheat	
  
export	
  	
  	
  	
  
Russian	
  Wheat	
  Value	
  Chain	
  
8	
  
Processing	
   Consump$on	
  
Agroholdings	
  –	
  47%	
  
Family	
  Farms	
  –	
  42%	
  	
  
Small	
  Enterprises	
  –	
  9%	
  	
  	
  
	
  
-­‐	
  Agroholdings	
  are	
  mostly	
  ver?cally	
  
integrated	
  (transport,	
  mills,	
  ports,	
  
storage,	
  expor?ng)	
  
-­‐	
  Small	
  producers	
  sell	
  to	
  processors	
  
or	
  traders	
  	
  
Domes?c	
  consump?on	
  –	
  
bread,	
  animal	
  feed	
  
Exports	
  –	
  Egypt,	
  Turkey,	
  
Yemen	
  &	
  Iran	
  
	
  
Production
Vulnerabili?es	
  	
  
Climate	
   Policy	
  &	
  trade	
  bans	
  Logis?cs	
   Infla?on	
  
Leading	
  exporters	
  of	
  grains	
  in	
  Russia	
  
9	
  
38%	
  by	
  
Interna?onal	
  
Firms	
  e.g.	
  
Glencore,	
  
Cargill	
  
35%	
  Domes?c	
  
firms	
  e.g.	
  RIF	
  
26%	
  small	
  local	
  
actors	
  
1%	
  by	
  the	
  state	
  
agency	
  United	
  
Grain	
  Company	
  
Source:	
  Forthcoming	
  Ahmed	
  et	
  al,	
  2015	
  
Wheat	
  export	
  ports	
  
10	
  
Glencore,	
  Kernerl	
  Group	
  of	
  Ukraine	
  &	
  others	
  
United	
  Grain	
  Co.	
  (50%),	
  Summa	
  Group	
  
Outspan	
  Interna?onal	
  	
  
Source:	
  Forthcoming	
  Ahmed	
  et	
  al,	
  2015	
  
What	
  is	
  the	
  impact	
  of	
  Russia’s	
  
economic	
  downturn	
  on	
  the	
  
wheat	
  chain?	
  
11	
  
Economic	
  Sanc?ons	
  
12	
  
March	
  2014	
  
US	
  &	
  EU	
  
Sanc?ons	
  	
  
August	
  	
  2014	
  
Russian	
  
counter	
  
sanc?ons	
  
IMF	
  es?mates	
  
Russian	
  real	
  
GDP	
  reduced	
  
by	
  1-­‐1½	
  %	
  
Source:	
  IMF,	
  2015,	
  Forthcoming	
  Ahmed	
  et	
  al,	
  2015	
  
	
  
•  Russia	
  is	
  the	
  top	
  des?na?on	
  for	
  EU	
  agricultural	
  products	
  aner	
  the	
  
USA	
  
•  	
  Producers	
  from	
  expor?ng	
  countries	
  experienced	
  price	
  drop	
  	
  
•  Counter	
  sanc?ons	
  supported	
  by	
  	
  about	
  87%	
  of	
  the	
  popula?on	
  	
  
•  Import	
  bill	
  for	
  food	
  products	
  decreased	
  by	
  almost	
  42%	
  in	
  January	
  
2015	
  	
  
•  Imposed	
  embargo	
  led	
  to	
  price	
  spikes	
  in	
  domes?c	
  market	
  
Oil	
  Prices	
  Dropped	
  
13	
  
The	
  Ruble	
  Dropped	
  
14	
  
Infla?on	
  remains	
  elevated	
  in	
  Russia	
  
15	
  
Risks	
  to	
  the	
  wheat	
  value	
  chain	
  
•  The	
  private	
  sector	
  is	
  facing	
  many	
  issues	
  
•  Statements	
  to	
  rein	
  in	
  wheat	
  exports	
  
•  Phytosanitary	
  cer?ficates	
  only	
  to	
  four	
  
countries	
  	
  
•  Ships	
  are	
  stuck	
  at	
  Novorossiysk	
  and	
  logis?cal	
  
boolenecks	
  
•  Non-­‐availability	
  of	
  grain	
  at	
  the	
  port	
  implies	
  
shupng	
  down	
  exports	
  
16	
  
THANK	
  YOU!	
  
QUESTIONS?	
  
Ghada	
  Ahmed	
  
Ghada.ahmed@duke.edu	
  
17	
  

More Related Content

What's hot

Wheat for Africa
Wheat for AfricaWheat for Africa
Wheat for AfricaCIMMYT
 
The importance of wheat for food security in Africa: Challenges and potential
The importance of wheat for food security in Africa: Challenges and potentialThe importance of wheat for food security in Africa: Challenges and potential
The importance of wheat for food security in Africa: Challenges and potentialCIMMYT
 
Thesis presention
Thesis presentionThesis presention
Thesis presentionSarah Serag
 
Egg processing Market
Egg processing MarketEgg processing Market
Egg processing MarketVishal CMI
 
Sudan - A Land of High Potential But Low Productivity
Sudan - A Land of High Potential But Low ProductivitySudan - A Land of High Potential But Low Productivity
Sudan - A Land of High Potential But Low ProductivityMalachy Mitchell
 
Why has Africa become a Net Food Importer
Why has Africa become a Net Food ImporterWhy has Africa become a Net Food Importer
Why has Africa become a Net Food ImporterDr Lendy Spires
 
Global Agri-food Investment Environment
Global Agri-food Investment EnvironmentGlobal Agri-food Investment Environment
Global Agri-food Investment EnvironmentMalachy Mitchell
 
KRI Brown Bag Seminar #2 - Malaysia : Current Scenario and Way Forward for th...
KRI Brown Bag Seminar #2 - Malaysia : Current Scenario and Way Forward for th...KRI Brown Bag Seminar #2 - Malaysia : Current Scenario and Way Forward for th...
KRI Brown Bag Seminar #2 - Malaysia : Current Scenario and Way Forward for th...KhazanahResearchInstitute
 
Ghana: Unlocking Agricultural Values
Ghana: Unlocking Agricultural ValuesGhana: Unlocking Agricultural Values
Ghana: Unlocking Agricultural ValuesJohn Aggrey
 
A Case study food security by Allah Dad Khan
A Case study food security  by Allah Dad Khan A Case study food security  by Allah Dad Khan
A Case study food security by Allah Dad Khan Mr.Allah Dad Khan
 
Food Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province a case Study by Allah ...
Food Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province a case Study by Allah ...Food Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province a case Study by Allah ...
Food Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province a case Study by Allah ...Mr.Allah Dad Khan
 

What's hot (20)

English summary
English summaryEnglish summary
English summary
 
Wheat for Africa
Wheat for AfricaWheat for Africa
Wheat for Africa
 
The importance of wheat for food security in Africa: Challenges and potential
The importance of wheat for food security in Africa: Challenges and potentialThe importance of wheat for food security in Africa: Challenges and potential
The importance of wheat for food security in Africa: Challenges and potential
 
Brussels Briefing 47: Ousmane Badiane "Trends in African regional trade"
Brussels Briefing 47: Ousmane Badiane "Trends in African regional trade"Brussels Briefing 47: Ousmane Badiane "Trends in African regional trade"
Brussels Briefing 47: Ousmane Badiane "Trends in African regional trade"
 
Farm trade policies in major economies: effects on EAC food security and agri...
Farm trade policies in major economies: effects on EAC food security and agri...Farm trade policies in major economies: effects on EAC food security and agri...
Farm trade policies in major economies: effects on EAC food security and agri...
 
Thesis presention
Thesis presentionThesis presention
Thesis presention
 
Wheat4 africa borlaug workshop final
Wheat4 africa borlaug workshop finalWheat4 africa borlaug workshop final
Wheat4 africa borlaug workshop final
 
Egg processing Market
Egg processing MarketEgg processing Market
Egg processing Market
 
The Fertilizer sector in Cambodia- Theng Vuthy
The Fertilizer sector in Cambodia- Theng Vuthy The Fertilizer sector in Cambodia- Theng Vuthy
The Fertilizer sector in Cambodia- Theng Vuthy
 
Sudan - A Land of High Potential But Low Productivity
Sudan - A Land of High Potential But Low ProductivitySudan - A Land of High Potential But Low Productivity
Sudan - A Land of High Potential But Low Productivity
 
Why has Africa become a Net Food Importer
Why has Africa become a Net Food ImporterWhy has Africa become a Net Food Importer
Why has Africa become a Net Food Importer
 
Global Agri-food Investment Environment
Global Agri-food Investment EnvironmentGlobal Agri-food Investment Environment
Global Agri-food Investment Environment
 
KRI Brown Bag Seminar #2 - Malaysia : Current Scenario and Way Forward for th...
KRI Brown Bag Seminar #2 - Malaysia : Current Scenario and Way Forward for th...KRI Brown Bag Seminar #2 - Malaysia : Current Scenario and Way Forward for th...
KRI Brown Bag Seminar #2 - Malaysia : Current Scenario and Way Forward for th...
 
Ghana: Unlocking Agricultural Values
Ghana: Unlocking Agricultural ValuesGhana: Unlocking Agricultural Values
Ghana: Unlocking Agricultural Values
 
Building integrated agri food chains between Asia and Brazil
Building integrated agri food chains between Asia and BrazilBuilding integrated agri food chains between Asia and Brazil
Building integrated agri food chains between Asia and Brazil
 
A Case study food security by Allah Dad Khan
A Case study food security  by Allah Dad Khan A Case study food security  by Allah Dad Khan
A Case study food security by Allah Dad Khan
 
Food Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province a case Study by Allah ...
Food Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province a case Study by Allah ...Food Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province a case Study by Allah ...
Food Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province a case Study by Allah ...
 
WTO's 11th Ministerial Conference – Buenos Aires What's At Stake for Domestic...
WTO's 11th Ministerial Conference – Buenos Aires What's At Stake for Domestic...WTO's 11th Ministerial Conference – Buenos Aires What's At Stake for Domestic...
WTO's 11th Ministerial Conference – Buenos Aires What's At Stake for Domestic...
 
The Fertilizer sector in Tajikistan- Narzimurod Kholov
The Fertilizer sector in Tajikistan- Narzimurod Kholov The Fertilizer sector in Tajikistan- Narzimurod Kholov
The Fertilizer sector in Tajikistan- Narzimurod Kholov
 
Food_Security
Food_SecurityFood_Security
Food_Security
 

Viewers also liked

Rijstketen ervaring Benin - Vredeseilanden
Rijstketen ervaring Benin - VredeseilandenRijstketen ervaring Benin - Vredeseilanden
Rijstketen ervaring Benin - Vredeseilandenatol
 
Kernel Pop Popcorn (direct & digital media marketing ppt)
Kernel Pop Popcorn (direct & digital media marketing ppt)Kernel Pop Popcorn (direct & digital media marketing ppt)
Kernel Pop Popcorn (direct & digital media marketing ppt)Naureen Ansari
 
Gereffi Gary Global Value Chains as a driver for upgrading and innovation CGGC
Gereffi Gary Global Value Chains as a driver for upgrading and innovation CGGCGereffi Gary Global Value Chains as a driver for upgrading and innovation CGGC
Gereffi Gary Global Value Chains as a driver for upgrading and innovation CGGCFOMINDEL
 
Notes on food resources
Notes on food resourcesNotes on food resources
Notes on food resourcesivisdude82
 
GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN MAP: A Template for Mapping Value Chains, Business Models,...
GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN MAP: A Template for Mapping Value Chains, Business Models,...GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN MAP: A Template for Mapping Value Chains, Business Models,...
GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN MAP: A Template for Mapping Value Chains, Business Models,...Rod King, Ph.D.
 
Global Value Chain and technological capabilities
Global Value Chain and technological capabilitiesGlobal Value Chain and technological capabilities
Global Value Chain and technological capabilitiesRoberta Rabellotti
 
Value Chain Analysis and Development Training
Value Chain Analysis and Development Training Value Chain Analysis and Development Training
Value Chain Analysis and Development Training Teshale Endalamaw
 
Global Value Chain Analysis by Gary Gereffi & Karina Fernandez-Stark
Global Value Chain Analysis by Gary Gereffi & Karina Fernandez-StarkGlobal Value Chain Analysis by Gary Gereffi & Karina Fernandez-Stark
Global Value Chain Analysis by Gary Gereffi & Karina Fernandez-StarkConectaDEL
 
Velocity 2015 linux perf tools
Velocity 2015 linux perf toolsVelocity 2015 linux perf tools
Velocity 2015 linux perf toolsBrendan Gregg
 

Viewers also liked (9)

Rijstketen ervaring Benin - Vredeseilanden
Rijstketen ervaring Benin - VredeseilandenRijstketen ervaring Benin - Vredeseilanden
Rijstketen ervaring Benin - Vredeseilanden
 
Kernel Pop Popcorn (direct & digital media marketing ppt)
Kernel Pop Popcorn (direct & digital media marketing ppt)Kernel Pop Popcorn (direct & digital media marketing ppt)
Kernel Pop Popcorn (direct & digital media marketing ppt)
 
Gereffi Gary Global Value Chains as a driver for upgrading and innovation CGGC
Gereffi Gary Global Value Chains as a driver for upgrading and innovation CGGCGereffi Gary Global Value Chains as a driver for upgrading and innovation CGGC
Gereffi Gary Global Value Chains as a driver for upgrading and innovation CGGC
 
Notes on food resources
Notes on food resourcesNotes on food resources
Notes on food resources
 
GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN MAP: A Template for Mapping Value Chains, Business Models,...
GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN MAP: A Template for Mapping Value Chains, Business Models,...GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN MAP: A Template for Mapping Value Chains, Business Models,...
GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN MAP: A Template for Mapping Value Chains, Business Models,...
 
Global Value Chain and technological capabilities
Global Value Chain and technological capabilitiesGlobal Value Chain and technological capabilities
Global Value Chain and technological capabilities
 
Value Chain Analysis and Development Training
Value Chain Analysis and Development Training Value Chain Analysis and Development Training
Value Chain Analysis and Development Training
 
Global Value Chain Analysis by Gary Gereffi & Karina Fernandez-Stark
Global Value Chain Analysis by Gary Gereffi & Karina Fernandez-StarkGlobal Value Chain Analysis by Gary Gereffi & Karina Fernandez-Stark
Global Value Chain Analysis by Gary Gereffi & Karina Fernandez-Stark
 
Velocity 2015 linux perf tools
Velocity 2015 linux perf toolsVelocity 2015 linux perf tools
Velocity 2015 linux perf tools
 

Similar to Global Value Chain Analysis of Food Security and Food Staples for Major Energy- Exporting Nations in the Middle East and North Africa: Russia Focus

Effects of Disasters and Shocks on Africa's Food Systems: a case of the Russi...
Effects of Disasters and Shocks on Africa's Food Systems: a case of the Russi...Effects of Disasters and Shocks on Africa's Food Systems: a case of the Russi...
Effects of Disasters and Shocks on Africa's Food Systems: a case of the Russi...Francois Stepman
 
World food healthy science
World food healthy scienceWorld food healthy science
World food healthy scienceDhineshwaran5
 
Setting the scene - Alexander Muller
Setting the scene - Alexander MullerSetting the scene - Alexander Muller
Setting the scene - Alexander MullerAleksandarGitari
 
Briefing Ukraine-Russia conflict & Global food security: focus "looking for ...
Briefing Ukraine-Russia conflict  & Global food security: focus "looking for ...Briefing Ukraine-Russia conflict  & Global food security: focus "looking for ...
Briefing Ukraine-Russia conflict & Global food security: focus "looking for ...David Laborde
 
2008 Chpa Perkins
2008 Chpa Perkins2008 Chpa Perkins
2008 Chpa Perkinsmesaredonda
 
EPAR_UW_310_National-Level_Maize Yield Trends_5.31.16
EPAR_UW_310_National-Level_Maize Yield Trends_5.31.16EPAR_UW_310_National-Level_Maize Yield Trends_5.31.16
EPAR_UW_310_National-Level_Maize Yield Trends_5.31.16Claire Guilmette (Aylward)
 
African animal agriculture: Grasping opportunities
African animal agriculture: Grasping opportunitiesAfrican animal agriculture: Grasping opportunities
African animal agriculture: Grasping opportunitiesILRI
 
Evolution of animal production in emerging markets: China, Russia, India, Bra...
Evolution of animal production in emerging markets: China, Russia, India, Bra...Evolution of animal production in emerging markets: China, Russia, India, Bra...
Evolution of animal production in emerging markets: China, Russia, India, Bra...ILRI
 
Why invest in livestock-based options for livelihoods, healthy lives and a su...
Why invest in livestock-based options for livelihoods, healthy lives and a su...Why invest in livestock-based options for livelihoods, healthy lives and a su...
Why invest in livestock-based options for livelihoods, healthy lives and a su...ILRI
 
Liquid Feed Market Report
Liquid Feed Market ReportLiquid Feed Market Report
Liquid Feed Market Reportsalaar10
 
Evolution of animal production in africa and other emerging markets
Evolution of animal production in africa and other emerging marketsEvolution of animal production in africa and other emerging markets
Evolution of animal production in africa and other emerging marketsILRI
 
Agricultural Opportunities in Nigeria
Agricultural Opportunities in Nigeria Agricultural Opportunities in Nigeria
Agricultural Opportunities in Nigeria Michael Olorunninwo
 
Food security: Yesterday Today and Tomorrow
Food security: Yesterday Today and Tomorrow Food security: Yesterday Today and Tomorrow
Food security: Yesterday Today and Tomorrow Abhishek Khadka
 

Similar to Global Value Chain Analysis of Food Security and Food Staples for Major Energy- Exporting Nations in the Middle East and North Africa: Russia Focus (20)

Effects of Disasters and Shocks on Africa's Food Systems: a case of the Russi...
Effects of Disasters and Shocks on Africa's Food Systems: a case of the Russi...Effects of Disasters and Shocks on Africa's Food Systems: a case of the Russi...
Effects of Disasters and Shocks on Africa's Food Systems: a case of the Russi...
 
World food healthy science
World food healthy scienceWorld food healthy science
World food healthy science
 
Setting the scene - Alexander Muller
Setting the scene - Alexander MullerSetting the scene - Alexander Muller
Setting the scene - Alexander Muller
 
Key fertilizer price drivers and the impact of conflict in Ukraine on fertili...
Key fertilizer price drivers and the impact of conflict in Ukraine on fertili...Key fertilizer price drivers and the impact of conflict in Ukraine on fertili...
Key fertilizer price drivers and the impact of conflict in Ukraine on fertili...
 
Briefing Ukraine-Russia conflict & Global food security: focus "looking for ...
Briefing Ukraine-Russia conflict  & Global food security: focus "looking for ...Briefing Ukraine-Russia conflict  & Global food security: focus "looking for ...
Briefing Ukraine-Russia conflict & Global food security: focus "looking for ...
 
2008 Chpa Perkins
2008 Chpa Perkins2008 Chpa Perkins
2008 Chpa Perkins
 
EPAR_UW_310_National-Level_Maize Yield Trends_5.31.16
EPAR_UW_310_National-Level_Maize Yield Trends_5.31.16EPAR_UW_310_National-Level_Maize Yield Trends_5.31.16
EPAR_UW_310_National-Level_Maize Yield Trends_5.31.16
 
African animal agriculture: Grasping opportunities
African animal agriculture: Grasping opportunitiesAfrican animal agriculture: Grasping opportunities
African animal agriculture: Grasping opportunities
 
Evolution of animal production in emerging markets: China, Russia, India, Bra...
Evolution of animal production in emerging markets: China, Russia, India, Bra...Evolution of animal production in emerging markets: China, Russia, India, Bra...
Evolution of animal production in emerging markets: China, Russia, India, Bra...
 
Why invest in livestock-based options for livelihoods, healthy lives and a su...
Why invest in livestock-based options for livelihoods, healthy lives and a su...Why invest in livestock-based options for livelihoods, healthy lives and a su...
Why invest in livestock-based options for livelihoods, healthy lives and a su...
 
Challenges in Securing Halal Food Supply 2014
Challenges in Securing Halal Food Supply 2014Challenges in Securing Halal Food Supply 2014
Challenges in Securing Halal Food Supply 2014
 
Liquid Feed Market Report
Liquid Feed Market ReportLiquid Feed Market Report
Liquid Feed Market Report
 
Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s Livestock and Fishery Sectors
Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s Livestock and Fishery Sectors Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s Livestock and Fishery Sectors
Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s Livestock and Fishery Sectors
 
Evolution of animal production in africa and other emerging markets
Evolution of animal production in africa and other emerging marketsEvolution of animal production in africa and other emerging markets
Evolution of animal production in africa and other emerging markets
 
Evolution of animal production in africa by dr. danilo pezo
Evolution of animal production in africa by dr. danilo pezoEvolution of animal production in africa by dr. danilo pezo
Evolution of animal production in africa by dr. danilo pezo
 
The Ukraine crisis: Unraveling the impacts and policy responses in low- and m...
The Ukraine crisis: Unraveling the impacts and policy responses in low- and m...The Ukraine crisis: Unraveling the impacts and policy responses in low- and m...
The Ukraine crisis: Unraveling the impacts and policy responses in low- and m...
 
Agricultural Opportunities in Nigeria
Agricultural Opportunities in Nigeria Agricultural Opportunities in Nigeria
Agricultural Opportunities in Nigeria
 
Food security: Yesterday Today and Tomorrow
Food security: Yesterday Today and Tomorrow Food security: Yesterday Today and Tomorrow
Food security: Yesterday Today and Tomorrow
 
Global Wheat Market
Global Wheat MarketGlobal Wheat Market
Global Wheat Market
 
Big picture overview of challenges and opportunities for achieving food secur...
Big picture overview of challenges and opportunities for achieving food secur...Big picture overview of challenges and opportunities for achieving food secur...
Big picture overview of challenges and opportunities for achieving food secur...
 

More from Duke University Global Value Chains Center (GVCC)

More from Duke University Global Value Chains Center (GVCC) (20)

The Digital Economy & Global Value Chains: Implications for Korea
The Digital Economy & Global Value Chains: Implications for KoreaThe Digital Economy & Global Value Chains: Implications for Korea
The Digital Economy & Global Value Chains: Implications for Korea
 
Global Value Chains, Industry 4.0, and Korean Industrial Transformation
Global Value Chains, Industry 4.0, and Korean Industrial TransformationGlobal Value Chains, Industry 4.0, and Korean Industrial Transformation
Global Value Chains, Industry 4.0, and Korean Industrial Transformation
 
Protectionism, NAFTA and U.S. – Mexico GVCs
Protectionism, NAFTA and U.S. – Mexico GVCsProtectionism, NAFTA and U.S. – Mexico GVCs
Protectionism, NAFTA and U.S. – Mexico GVCs
 
GVCs and FDI Attraction: Case Study and Policy Implications
GVCs and FDI Attraction: Case Study and Policy ImplicationsGVCs and FDI Attraction: Case Study and Policy Implications
GVCs and FDI Attraction: Case Study and Policy Implications
 
POCkeT: Reducing Cervical Cancer in Peru through GVC analysis
POCkeT: Reducing Cervical Cancer in Peru through GVC analysis POCkeT: Reducing Cervical Cancer in Peru through GVC analysis
POCkeT: Reducing Cervical Cancer in Peru through GVC analysis
 
Bass Connections: Global Value Chain Research
Bass Connections: Global Value Chain ResearchBass Connections: Global Value Chain Research
Bass Connections: Global Value Chain Research
 
GVCs and Development - Guest Lecture for “The Politics of Market Competition ...
GVCs and Development - Guest Lecture for “The Politics of Market Competition ...GVCs and Development - Guest Lecture for “The Politics of Market Competition ...
GVCs and Development - Guest Lecture for “The Politics of Market Competition ...
 
An Introduction to (Client Oriented) Global Value Chain Analysis
An Introduction to (Client Oriented) Global Value Chain AnalysisAn Introduction to (Client Oriented) Global Value Chain Analysis
An Introduction to (Client Oriented) Global Value Chain Analysis
 
Global Value Chains and Development - Presentation at Nazarbayev University i...
Global Value Chains and Development - Presentation at Nazarbayev University i...Global Value Chains and Development - Presentation at Nazarbayev University i...
Global Value Chains and Development - Presentation at Nazarbayev University i...
 
Global Value Chains and Industrial Clusters
Global Value Chains and Industrial ClustersGlobal Value Chains and Industrial Clusters
Global Value Chains and Industrial Clusters
 
Quantifying the Nanotechnology Workforce: Methods, Barriers & Estimates
Quantifying the Nanotechnology Workforce: Methods, Barriers & EstimatesQuantifying the Nanotechnology Workforce: Methods, Barriers & Estimates
Quantifying the Nanotechnology Workforce: Methods, Barriers & Estimates
 
Can Public-Private Partnerships Actually Benefit the Poor?
Can Public-Private Partnerships Actually Benefit the Poor?Can Public-Private Partnerships Actually Benefit the Poor?
Can Public-Private Partnerships Actually Benefit the Poor?
 
North Carolina in the Global Economy
North Carolina in the Global EconomyNorth Carolina in the Global Economy
North Carolina in the Global Economy
 
Philippines Participation in GVCs: Analysis and Findings
Philippines Participation in GVCs: Analysis and FindingsPhilippines Participation in GVCs: Analysis and Findings
Philippines Participation in GVCs: Analysis and Findings
 
Duke Social Science Research Institute (SSRI): An Overview
Duke Social Science Research Institute (SSRI): An OverviewDuke Social Science Research Institute (SSRI): An Overview
Duke Social Science Research Institute (SSRI): An Overview
 
Global Value Chains and Duke CGGC’s Collaboration in Kazakhstan
Global Value Chains and Duke CGGC’s Collaboration in KazakhstanGlobal Value Chains and Duke CGGC’s Collaboration in Kazakhstan
Global Value Chains and Duke CGGC’s Collaboration in Kazakhstan
 
Productive Development Policies and Upgrading: Linking Value Chains, Regions ...
Productive Development Policies and Upgrading: Linking Value Chains, Regions ...Productive Development Policies and Upgrading: Linking Value Chains, Regions ...
Productive Development Policies and Upgrading: Linking Value Chains, Regions ...
 
From Value Chain Mapping to Policy Recommendations
From Value Chain Mapping to Policy RecommendationsFrom Value Chain Mapping to Policy Recommendations
From Value Chain Mapping to Policy Recommendations
 
Global Value Chains and Development - Concepts and Methodologies
Global Value Chains and Development - Concepts and MethodologiesGlobal Value Chains and Development - Concepts and Methodologies
Global Value Chains and Development - Concepts and Methodologies
 
The Economic Impact of the High Point Market
The Economic Impact of the High Point MarketThe Economic Impact of the High Point Market
The Economic Impact of the High Point Market
 

Recently uploaded

一比一原版(Cornell毕业证书)康奈尔大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(Cornell毕业证书)康奈尔大学毕业证成绩单学位证书一比一原版(Cornell毕业证书)康奈尔大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(Cornell毕业证书)康奈尔大学毕业证成绩单学位证书atedyxc
 
一比一原版(Caltech毕业证书)加利福尼亚理工学院毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(Caltech毕业证书)加利福尼亚理工学院毕业证成绩单学位证书一比一原版(Caltech毕业证书)加利福尼亚理工学院毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(Caltech毕业证书)加利福尼亚理工学院毕业证成绩单学位证书atedyxc
 
Production and Cost of the firm with curves
Production and Cost of the firm with curvesProduction and Cost of the firm with curves
Production and Cost of the firm with curvesArifa Saeed
 
Rapport annuel de Encevo Group pour l'année 2023
Rapport annuel de Encevo Group pour l'année 2023Rapport annuel de Encevo Group pour l'année 2023
Rapport annuel de Encevo Group pour l'année 2023Paperjam_redaction
 
Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2024 [SlideShare]
Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2024 [SlideShare]Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2024 [SlideShare]
Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
 
Tourism attractions in Lesotho katse dam
Tourism attractions in Lesotho katse damTourism attractions in Lesotho katse dam
Tourism attractions in Lesotho katse dammataekepule
 
amil baba in australia amil baba in canada amil baba in london amil baba in g...
amil baba in australia amil baba in canada amil baba in london amil baba in g...amil baba in australia amil baba in canada amil baba in london amil baba in g...
amil baba in australia amil baba in canada amil baba in london amil baba in g...israjan914
 
一比一原版(UCSD毕业证书)加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(UCSD毕业证书)加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校毕业证成绩单学位证书一比一原版(UCSD毕业证书)加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(UCSD毕业证书)加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校毕业证成绩单学位证书atedyxc
 
Shrambal_Distributors_Newsletter_May-2024.pdf
Shrambal_Distributors_Newsletter_May-2024.pdfShrambal_Distributors_Newsletter_May-2024.pdf
Shrambal_Distributors_Newsletter_May-2024.pdfvikashdidwania1
 
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 13 May 2024.pptx
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 13 May 2024.pptxSlideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 13 May 2024.pptx
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 13 May 2024.pptxOffice for National Statistics
 
Retail sector trends for 2024 | European Business Review
Retail sector trends for 2024  | European Business ReviewRetail sector trends for 2024  | European Business Review
Retail sector trends for 2024 | European Business ReviewAntonis Zairis
 
Managing personal finances wisely for financial stability and
Managing personal finances wisely for financial stability  andManaging personal finances wisely for financial stability  and
Managing personal finances wisely for financial stability andraqibmifysolutions
 
一比一原版(Concordia毕业证书)康卡迪亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(Concordia毕业证书)康卡迪亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书一比一原版(Concordia毕业证书)康卡迪亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(Concordia毕业证书)康卡迪亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书atedyxc
 
Pension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdf
Pension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdfPension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdf
Pension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdfHenry Tapper
 
Big developments in Lesotho Butha-Buthe.
Big developments in Lesotho Butha-Buthe.Big developments in Lesotho Butha-Buthe.
Big developments in Lesotho Butha-Buthe.ntlhabeli12
 
快速制作(otago毕业证书)新西兰奥塔哥大学毕业证 毕业文凭证书-国外文凭
快速制作(otago毕业证书)新西兰奥塔哥大学毕业证 毕业文凭证书-国外文凭快速制作(otago毕业证书)新西兰奥塔哥大学毕业证 毕业文凭证书-国外文凭
快速制作(otago毕业证书)新西兰奥塔哥大学毕业证 毕业文凭证书-国外文凭vytqf
 
一比一原版(UPenn毕业证书)宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(UPenn毕业证书)宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书一比一原版(UPenn毕业证书)宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(UPenn毕业证书)宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书atedyxc
 
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to miningNeal Brewster
 

Recently uploaded (20)

一比一原版(Cornell毕业证书)康奈尔大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(Cornell毕业证书)康奈尔大学毕业证成绩单学位证书一比一原版(Cornell毕业证书)康奈尔大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(Cornell毕业证书)康奈尔大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
 
一比一原版(Caltech毕业证书)加利福尼亚理工学院毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(Caltech毕业证书)加利福尼亚理工学院毕业证成绩单学位证书一比一原版(Caltech毕业证书)加利福尼亚理工学院毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(Caltech毕业证书)加利福尼亚理工学院毕业证成绩单学位证书
 
Production and Cost of the firm with curves
Production and Cost of the firm with curvesProduction and Cost of the firm with curves
Production and Cost of the firm with curves
 
Rapport annuel de Encevo Group pour l'année 2023
Rapport annuel de Encevo Group pour l'année 2023Rapport annuel de Encevo Group pour l'année 2023
Rapport annuel de Encevo Group pour l'année 2023
 
Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2024 [SlideShare]
Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2024 [SlideShare]Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2024 [SlideShare]
Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2024 [SlideShare]
 
Tourism attractions in Lesotho katse dam
Tourism attractions in Lesotho katse damTourism attractions in Lesotho katse dam
Tourism attractions in Lesotho katse dam
 
DIGITAL COMMERCE SHAPE VIETNAMESE SHOPPING HABIT IN 4.0 INDUSTRY
DIGITAL COMMERCE SHAPE VIETNAMESE SHOPPING HABIT IN 4.0 INDUSTRYDIGITAL COMMERCE SHAPE VIETNAMESE SHOPPING HABIT IN 4.0 INDUSTRY
DIGITAL COMMERCE SHAPE VIETNAMESE SHOPPING HABIT IN 4.0 INDUSTRY
 
amil baba in australia amil baba in canada amil baba in london amil baba in g...
amil baba in australia amil baba in canada amil baba in london amil baba in g...amil baba in australia amil baba in canada amil baba in london amil baba in g...
amil baba in australia amil baba in canada amil baba in london amil baba in g...
 
一比一原版(UCSD毕业证书)加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(UCSD毕业证书)加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校毕业证成绩单学位证书一比一原版(UCSD毕业证书)加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(UCSD毕业证书)加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校毕业证成绩单学位证书
 
Shrambal_Distributors_Newsletter_May-2024.pdf
Shrambal_Distributors_Newsletter_May-2024.pdfShrambal_Distributors_Newsletter_May-2024.pdf
Shrambal_Distributors_Newsletter_May-2024.pdf
 
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 13 May 2024.pptx
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 13 May 2024.pptxSlideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 13 May 2024.pptx
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 13 May 2024.pptx
 
Retail sector trends for 2024 | European Business Review
Retail sector trends for 2024  | European Business ReviewRetail sector trends for 2024  | European Business Review
Retail sector trends for 2024 | European Business Review
 
Managing personal finances wisely for financial stability and
Managing personal finances wisely for financial stability  andManaging personal finances wisely for financial stability  and
Managing personal finances wisely for financial stability and
 
一比一原版(Concordia毕业证书)康卡迪亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(Concordia毕业证书)康卡迪亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书一比一原版(Concordia毕业证书)康卡迪亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(Concordia毕业证书)康卡迪亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
 
Pension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdf
Pension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdfPension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdf
Pension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdf
 
SAUDI ARABIYA | +966572737505 |Jeddah Get Cytotec pills for Abortion pills
SAUDI ARABIYA | +966572737505 |Jeddah Get Cytotec pills for Abortion pillsSAUDI ARABIYA | +966572737505 |Jeddah Get Cytotec pills for Abortion pills
SAUDI ARABIYA | +966572737505 |Jeddah Get Cytotec pills for Abortion pills
 
Big developments in Lesotho Butha-Buthe.
Big developments in Lesotho Butha-Buthe.Big developments in Lesotho Butha-Buthe.
Big developments in Lesotho Butha-Buthe.
 
快速制作(otago毕业证书)新西兰奥塔哥大学毕业证 毕业文凭证书-国外文凭
快速制作(otago毕业证书)新西兰奥塔哥大学毕业证 毕业文凭证书-国外文凭快速制作(otago毕业证书)新西兰奥塔哥大学毕业证 毕业文凭证书-国外文凭
快速制作(otago毕业证书)新西兰奥塔哥大学毕业证 毕业文凭证书-国外文凭
 
一比一原版(UPenn毕业证书)宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(UPenn毕业证书)宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书一比一原版(UPenn毕业证书)宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
一比一原版(UPenn毕业证书)宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证成绩单学位证书
 
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining
 

Global Value Chain Analysis of Food Security and Food Staples for Major Energy- Exporting Nations in the Middle East and North Africa: Russia Focus

  • 1. Global  Value  Chain  Analysis  of  Food  Security  and  Food   Staples  for  Major  Energy-­‐  Expor?ng  Na?ons  in  the  Middle   East  and  North  Africa:     Russia  Focus   Ghada  Ahmed   Danny  Hamrick     SMA  Lecture  Series   Tuesday  September  8th,  2015     1  
  • 2. •  Mul$-­‐year  project  supported  by  US  Dept.  of  Defense  MINERVA   Ini?a?ve  and  Army  Research  Office  for  University-­‐Led  Research     •  Collabora$on  with  the  Nicholas  School  of  the  Environment  to   study  food  security  in  the  Middle  East  and  North  Africa  (MENA)   •  Rank  food  security  of  MENA  countries  based  on  mul?ple   variables  and  data  sources   •  Apply  GVC  approach  to  iden$fy  vulnerabili$es  and  leverage   points  in  key  food  commodi?es  in  MENA  countries   •  Iden$fy  risks  and  strategic  op$ons  to  improve  food  security  in   the  region   Minerva  Project  Overview   2  
  • 3. GVC  Analysis     •  Trace  the  geographic  spread  of  produc?on   •  Map  the  ecosystem  of  firms,  ins?tu?ons  &  policies   •  Analyze  governance  structures  &  enabling  environment   •  Determine  upgrading  trajectories  &  boFlenecks   •  Address  economic,  social  &  environmental  challenges   Inputs   Processing   Marke?ng  Produc?on   3  
  • 4. Wheat Global Value Chain Inputs R&D Seeds Fertilizer Pesticide Machines Soft, Hard, Durum wheat Smallholders Large farms Cleaning Elevators Feed Milling Livestock production Food manufacturers Wholesale Supermarkets & Grocers Production Processing Marketing Blending Trade Trading companies Domestic International Drying Mills Flour Milling Packaging Offshore production Labor Supporting activities and institutions Government Regulations Futures Trading Food aid Trade Policies Financial Intermediaries Infrastructure Logistics Land Water Storage Blending Bakeries 4  
  • 5. Algeria      has  imported   16.6%   of  MENA’s   wheat  since   2007   Different  regions  within  MENA  rely  on  different  countries  as  their  leading  source  of  imported   wheat.  Depending  on  the  country,  these  rela?onships  have  persisted  since  2007   Morocco   has  imported   9.3%  of   MENA’s  wheat   since  2007   Egypt   has   imported 25.9%   of  MENA’s   wheat   since  2007   France  Russia   Australia  No  s?ckiness   Libya   Syria   Mauritania   Saudi  Arabia   Iran  Iraq   Wheat Procurement Across MENA   5  
  • 6. Dependency  on  Russian  Trade   6   Climate   Policy   Poli?cal   Tension   Stability     MENA    Commonwealth  of   Independent  States   Ukraine,     Bal?c  countries      
  • 7. Russian  Wheat  Policy  Timeline   7   1980s            1990s                    2000s                          2006      2008      2010        2014   Soviet  Union  was  a   large  grain  importer   to  support   protected  livestock   sector   Market  liberaliza?on  led   to  decrease  in  livestock   sector  subsidies  led  to   decrease  in  need  for   animal  feed,  became   small  grain  exporter  and   meat  importer   Improvements  in  grain   yields,  despite  a  drop  in   ag  subsidies,  increased   domes?c  supply  allowing   for  more  exports,   emerged  as  a  leading   exporter.  Agroholdings   emerge   World  food  prices   surge,  farmers   return  to  fallow  land,   GOR  increase   support  to  ag  sector,   livestock  sector   receives  bulk  of   benefits   World  economic   crisis  hits  Russia,   places  an  export   tax  on  wheat     Drought  causes  GOR  to   ban  exports  in  August   2010  –  June  2011.  GOV   also  required  all   traders  to  abrogate   contracts  with  foreign   buyers,  produc?on   decreases   Russia  absorbs  Crimea  &   over  2million  ppl,  bans  ag   imports  (poultry  &  beef)   from  the  West  and   imposes  stringent  export   controls  that  halts  wheat   export        
  • 8. Russian  Wheat  Value  Chain   8   Processing   Consump$on   Agroholdings  –  47%   Family  Farms  –  42%     Small  Enterprises  –  9%         -­‐  Agroholdings  are  mostly  ver?cally   integrated  (transport,  mills,  ports,   storage,  expor?ng)   -­‐  Small  producers  sell  to  processors   or  traders     Domes?c  consump?on  –   bread,  animal  feed   Exports  –  Egypt,  Turkey,   Yemen  &  Iran     Production Vulnerabili?es     Climate   Policy  &  trade  bans  Logis?cs   Infla?on  
  • 9. Leading  exporters  of  grains  in  Russia   9   38%  by   Interna?onal   Firms  e.g.   Glencore,   Cargill   35%  Domes?c   firms  e.g.  RIF   26%  small  local   actors   1%  by  the  state   agency  United   Grain  Company   Source:  Forthcoming  Ahmed  et  al,  2015  
  • 10. Wheat  export  ports   10   Glencore,  Kernerl  Group  of  Ukraine  &  others   United  Grain  Co.  (50%),  Summa  Group   Outspan  Interna?onal     Source:  Forthcoming  Ahmed  et  al,  2015  
  • 11. What  is  the  impact  of  Russia’s   economic  downturn  on  the   wheat  chain?   11  
  • 12. Economic  Sanc?ons   12   March  2014   US  &  EU   Sanc?ons     August    2014   Russian   counter   sanc?ons   IMF  es?mates   Russian  real   GDP  reduced   by  1-­‐1½  %   Source:  IMF,  2015,  Forthcoming  Ahmed  et  al,  2015     •  Russia  is  the  top  des?na?on  for  EU  agricultural  products  aner  the   USA   •   Producers  from  expor?ng  countries  experienced  price  drop     •  Counter  sanc?ons  supported  by    about  87%  of  the  popula?on     •  Import  bill  for  food  products  decreased  by  almost  42%  in  January   2015     •  Imposed  embargo  led  to  price  spikes  in  domes?c  market  
  • 15. Infla?on  remains  elevated  in  Russia   15  
  • 16. Risks  to  the  wheat  value  chain   •  The  private  sector  is  facing  many  issues   •  Statements  to  rein  in  wheat  exports   •  Phytosanitary  cer?ficates  only  to  four   countries     •  Ships  are  stuck  at  Novorossiysk  and  logis?cal   boolenecks   •  Non-­‐availability  of  grain  at  the  port  implies   shupng  down  exports   16  
  • 17. THANK  YOU!   QUESTIONS?   Ghada  Ahmed   Ghada.ahmed@duke.edu   17