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India’s Pakistan problem:
Realism needed to solve it
Dr. Mithlesh Jayas Mukherji
PhD (Pol Sc)
 The border between India and
Pakistan has seen a bloody
partition in 1947 that killed
hundreds of thousands; more
than 15,000 dead in three wars
and 25 years spent fighting over
a glacier; more than 40,000
dead in the disputed province of
Kashmir. And now both
countries are armed with
nuclear weapons.
“Most dangerous border in the world”
 The Indo-Pakistan conflict is the direct consequence of the imbalance of
power between the two states and Pakistani non-acceptance of this
imbalance.
 According to Neo-realists, the gross imbalance between India and Pakistan
and Pakistani attempts to balance Indian strength rather than bandwagon
it, will not allow any entente to emerge between the two countries.
 The roots are usually said to lie in Partition but I shall be challenging this.
Indo-Pakistani Conflict
Growing
Imbalance
between Indian
and Pakistani
Capabilities adding
to Pakistani
insecurities
Partition and
its effects
Effects on the People
 Many people were separated from family and friends when the
migration began. 12 million people were homeless refugees in
either Pakistan or India as they had to flee countries because of
discrimination.
 No-one knows how many people died, but most estimates are
around 500,000 dead, but some range up to 1 million.
 Many people had to make long journeys during the move, and
often people were too old, young or sick to complete it and were
left for dead along the way.
The Kashmir Conflict: Origin
 After Independence, Tribesman attacked Jammu and Kashmir and the
Maharaja signed the Instrument of Accession with India on 25th October
1947.
 The pact was implemented from 27th October 1947 and stated that Jammu
and Kashmir is an integral part of union of India.
 The pact is already approved by United Nations, Indian Independence act
1947 and Government of India act 1935. The pact also stated that after law
and order was restored in Jammu and Kashmir, the accession would be
determined by a referendum amongst its people.
 After signing the treaty, Government of India deployed Armed forces in
Jammu and Kashmir which led to the First Kashmir War of 1947-48.
Other Issues of conflict between India and
Pakistan:
Sir Creek
 Western terminus of Pak-India border in Runn of Kutch; Unsolved since
1969; initially dispute between Kutch and Sindh states from 1914.
 Economically important rather than military point of view as oil and gas
reserves below the sea bed.
 India claims that boundary should run in the middle while Pakistan
maintains that it is part of Sindh.
 Eight round of talks have been held till now without a breakthrough
 Pakistan has proposed for international arbitration but India flatly refuses
it.
Siachen Glacier
 Located in the eastern Karakoram
range in the Himalaya Mountains;
70 km long strip; Almost 1 million
dollars expenditure a day
 Longest in the Karakoram and
second largest in the world’s non-
polar regions
 Both the countries have
maintained permanent military
presence in the region
 India wants Pakistan to officially
recognize LoC as permanent
border, a demand that Pakistan
can never accept
Water disputes
 Salal dam on River Chenab
 Wullar Barrage-a storage at Wullar lake in 1980’s
 Project halted in 1987 due to Pakistan’s objection
 Baglihar Dam-project on River Chenab ,conceived in 1992 and construction
began in 1999; Serious implications claimed for Pakistan agriculture. In
2007 the matter decided by World Bank
 Kishenganga Project is 330 mega watt dam located in Muzafarabad;
Diversion will change the course of Neelum by around 100 km and
Pakistan’s Neelum Valley will dry up
 Many water sharing treaties have been signed in the last 50 years, but still
the disputes persist.
 Pakistan formed on basis of an Islamic ideology, though Jinnah wanted secular
Pakistan
 Islamic identity still forms the basis for Pakistan today.
 From inception, the leaders of Pakistan have projected their country as fort of
Islam.
 The Pakistani defence services especially its Army and ISI consider themselves
to be the final arbiter of their nation’s destiny
 Consider “jihad” as an acceptable way of defeating a stronger enemy
notwithstanding its cost to the nation.
Ideology of “Pakistan”
 New post-Zia-ul-Haq era identity of Pakistan based on hatred and animosity
towards India
 Experts blame on the misgovernance of the ruling elites as well as the spread
of jihadi culture and its control over primary education in the rural Pakistani
hinterland.
 The emergence of such semi-educated radicalized masses from madrassas,
untrained for employment make them ideal cannon fodder for the jihadi
machinery.
 This phenomenon nearly complete in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas
(FATA), Frontier Province and is well under way in western and southern
parts of Punjab, Pakistan’s largest province as well as large areas of Sindh.
 In her book “Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War” C
Christine Fair asserted that the Pakistani Army’s agenda goes beyond
“wresting Kashmir from India” or avenging 1971.
 Aimed at fostering an unending enmity with India to prevent its pre-
eminence in South Asia. The animus of the Pakistani establishment has
also been studied by Stephen Cohen in his book “The Idea of Pakistan”.
 Promote its image as the “final bulwark for the Islamic culture of South Asia
against Indian Hindu cultural and economic colonialism” and thereby
maintain its dominance over the Pakistani state.
 1953, Nehru-Liaquat Ali Talks: Nehru agreed to hold plebiscite in Kashmir, if
an impartial Plebiscite Administrator could be found. Talks failed after
Pakistan joined the US led CENTO & SEATO.
 Indus Treaty (1961): division of Indus basin waters between Indian and
Pakistan.
 Tashkent (1965) and Simla (1971) Pacts: India was willing to give up the
advantages of a better post war security position in return for a Pakistani
commitment to resolving disputes through bilateral negotiations.
Agreement on LOC.
 Lahore Talks (1999): India again tried resolving issues with Pakistan. Kargil
war led to Lahore failure.
Peace talks with Pakistan: Talk to whom?
 2001 Agra Summit: Talks failed despite promise of resolution in Kashmir because
of intransigence by Musharraf and Advani.
 2009 Shatt-al-Arab Talks: Talks failed after Pakistan accused India of interference
in Baluchistan.
 Ufa Talks (2015): India again tried discussing issues with Pakistan; ceasefire
violations at border ended the initiative.
 Pakistani Army determines relations with India and any politician wishing for a
peace treaty with India frequently finds him or herself out of favour or power.
 Pakistani leadership claimed that resolution of Kashmir dispute and other
outstanding disputes such as the Sir Creek or Indus water division is central to
improving relations with India but their actions have not been consistent with
their claims
Peace talks with Pakistan: Talk to whom?
Peace talks with Pakistan: Talk to whom?
 New Indian leadership taken
hardline view.
 Trying to isolate Pakistan
regionally and internationally
 New aggressiveness in India
after 2014 border incidents
and Myanmar cross border
attack – will it be fruitfull?
 Source of India-Pakistan conflict: natural imbalance of power between India and
Pakistan, and the Pakistani refusal to accept this and come to terms with the existing
reality.
 The ruling class of Pakistan: Punjabi aristocrats and industrialists or the military class
(80% of its officer class from the landed Punjabi gentry). This class views itself as the
natural heir to the Mughal and post Mughal ruling class of the Indian subcontinent
(C Christine Fair. Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War. Oxford University Press, May 2014)
 Over the last three decades, this belief in an ultimate victory of Islam over non-
believers has been ingrained very deeply in the psyche of the nation.
 The Pakistani Army’s lower and younger ranks are getting even more radicalized and
it accepts the “hadith” that it is their destiny as Muslim warriors to take part in the
final conquest of the Indian subcontinent.
Realistic Options for India
 Younger radicalised generations will lead the Pakistani Army very soon and therefore
Pakistan will continue to use terrorism or “non-state actors” and indulge in
asymmetric warfare.
 India cannot afford to wait for the 1971 generation who pine for revenge to die out.
This monster has been institutionalized and is going to keep attacking India under
any pretext.
(C Christine Fair. Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War. Oxford University Press, May 2014)
 General Pervez Musharraf, the architect of Kargil, in an interview in India in March
2009 warned India of many future Kargils and Siachens unless it agreed to Pakistani
demands.
 What India needs to do is change the existing ideology of Pakistan that Islam is the
basis of Pakistan’s existence and that Pakistan is the citadel of Islam.
Realistic Options for India
 To allow for a genuine middle class, trade, democracy and development to happen in
Pakistan; it would require the complete dismantling of the Pakistani defence forces
and reshaping of the political and social climate.
 The Pakistani Army would have to be reformed as a nationally representative,
professional and apolitical force which would not have any say in political power.
 For such changes to occur, the Pakistani state would need to be occupied and
defanged. Any forcible occupation of Pakistan in the presence of a hostile if not
totally defeated military, jihadi groups and vested interests from China and the Gulf
would make the Afghanistan experience look like a bed of roses.
 An occupying force would have to defeat a half million professionally trained,
nuclear capable and well-armed defence force and if successful then face a hostile
nation of nearly 200 million with hundreds of thousands of religious fanatics in
densely populated urban and semi-urban clusters as well as remote mountainous
terrain.
Realistic Options for India
 A better option for India would be to take advantage of the inherent divisions in the
country and create internal weakness and if possible divisions within Pakistan.
 Punjab constitutes less than 40% of the Pakistani landmass but controls most of the
vast natural resources of the Baluchistan province or the waters of the Indus.
Similarly Punjab accounts for nearly 70% of the military personnel, 75-80% of the
officer class and about the same strength in the administrative services.
 In 1948 Baluchistan was forcibly annexed into Pakistan and revolted in the mid-1960s
as well as in 1974-77 and after 1995, which have been often put down ruthlessly by
military force. Similar movements by the Mohajir community in Karachi city and by
the local Sindhi population in the hinterlands of the Sindh province have been taking
place.
 Similar movements are to be seen in POK and in the Khyber Agency which are put
down by the military and attacked by Sunni militants.
Realistic Options for India
 India could take advantage of these and use both hard and soft power to cause the
implosion of the Pakistani state.
 Soft power can mean moral support to the Balochis and Sindhis in International fora
especially by skillful use of the print and electronic media
 In addition, India could then wield its hard power options in the form of training to
separatists, encouraging the leaders of the various state movements to establish
bases as well as providing monetary and material support.
 The aim should be to help in the process of break-up of Pakistan and removal of
Pakistani ability to limit Indian reach into central Asia or the north Arabian Sea.
Realistic Options for India
 The Indian establishment should realize that “Pakistan” is run by a group of landed
elite and a patrician military maintaining a façade of democracy for moralist
consumption.
 It has been long taught to Indians that a united, stable and secure Pakistan is in
India’s best interests to avoid nuclear weapons falling into Jihadi hands.
 This is a myth as Pakistan will keep plotting the next war (conventional or
unconventional) against India in its quest to keep the ideological battle against
India going.
 Also use of nuclear weapons, their maintenance, weaponization and delivery
requires a robust military-industrial-scientific complex which can only be run by a
nation-state and not by jihadi groups.
Conclusion
 The only way India is going to get peace is to use every means possible to
help Pakistani state disintegrate thus busting the Citadel of Islam myth of
Pakistan.
 It also gives India the best possible means of reintegrating Pakistan
Occupied Kashmir, gain direct access to Central and South-west Asia and
will leave the troublesome Punjabi core of Pakistan a landlocked state with
much less strategic depth or resources to wage war against India.
 This would free up the Indian western flank allowing it to concentrate on
China as well as also establish India as a major Power in South-west Asia
with influence over both Iran and the Gulf.
Conclusion
Thank You

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India's Pakistan problem

  • 1. India’s Pakistan problem: Realism needed to solve it Dr. Mithlesh Jayas Mukherji PhD (Pol Sc)
  • 2.  The border between India and Pakistan has seen a bloody partition in 1947 that killed hundreds of thousands; more than 15,000 dead in three wars and 25 years spent fighting over a glacier; more than 40,000 dead in the disputed province of Kashmir. And now both countries are armed with nuclear weapons. “Most dangerous border in the world”
  • 3.  The Indo-Pakistan conflict is the direct consequence of the imbalance of power between the two states and Pakistani non-acceptance of this imbalance.  According to Neo-realists, the gross imbalance between India and Pakistan and Pakistani attempts to balance Indian strength rather than bandwagon it, will not allow any entente to emerge between the two countries.  The roots are usually said to lie in Partition but I shall be challenging this. Indo-Pakistani Conflict
  • 6. Effects on the People  Many people were separated from family and friends when the migration began. 12 million people were homeless refugees in either Pakistan or India as they had to flee countries because of discrimination.  No-one knows how many people died, but most estimates are around 500,000 dead, but some range up to 1 million.  Many people had to make long journeys during the move, and often people were too old, young or sick to complete it and were left for dead along the way.
  • 7. The Kashmir Conflict: Origin  After Independence, Tribesman attacked Jammu and Kashmir and the Maharaja signed the Instrument of Accession with India on 25th October 1947.  The pact was implemented from 27th October 1947 and stated that Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of union of India.  The pact is already approved by United Nations, Indian Independence act 1947 and Government of India act 1935. The pact also stated that after law and order was restored in Jammu and Kashmir, the accession would be determined by a referendum amongst its people.  After signing the treaty, Government of India deployed Armed forces in Jammu and Kashmir which led to the First Kashmir War of 1947-48.
  • 8.
  • 9. Other Issues of conflict between India and Pakistan: Sir Creek  Western terminus of Pak-India border in Runn of Kutch; Unsolved since 1969; initially dispute between Kutch and Sindh states from 1914.  Economically important rather than military point of view as oil and gas reserves below the sea bed.  India claims that boundary should run in the middle while Pakistan maintains that it is part of Sindh.  Eight round of talks have been held till now without a breakthrough  Pakistan has proposed for international arbitration but India flatly refuses it.
  • 10. Siachen Glacier  Located in the eastern Karakoram range in the Himalaya Mountains; 70 km long strip; Almost 1 million dollars expenditure a day  Longest in the Karakoram and second largest in the world’s non- polar regions  Both the countries have maintained permanent military presence in the region  India wants Pakistan to officially recognize LoC as permanent border, a demand that Pakistan can never accept
  • 11. Water disputes  Salal dam on River Chenab  Wullar Barrage-a storage at Wullar lake in 1980’s  Project halted in 1987 due to Pakistan’s objection  Baglihar Dam-project on River Chenab ,conceived in 1992 and construction began in 1999; Serious implications claimed for Pakistan agriculture. In 2007 the matter decided by World Bank  Kishenganga Project is 330 mega watt dam located in Muzafarabad; Diversion will change the course of Neelum by around 100 km and Pakistan’s Neelum Valley will dry up  Many water sharing treaties have been signed in the last 50 years, but still the disputes persist.
  • 12.
  • 13.  Pakistan formed on basis of an Islamic ideology, though Jinnah wanted secular Pakistan  Islamic identity still forms the basis for Pakistan today.  From inception, the leaders of Pakistan have projected their country as fort of Islam.  The Pakistani defence services especially its Army and ISI consider themselves to be the final arbiter of their nation’s destiny  Consider “jihad” as an acceptable way of defeating a stronger enemy notwithstanding its cost to the nation. Ideology of “Pakistan”
  • 14.  New post-Zia-ul-Haq era identity of Pakistan based on hatred and animosity towards India  Experts blame on the misgovernance of the ruling elites as well as the spread of jihadi culture and its control over primary education in the rural Pakistani hinterland.  The emergence of such semi-educated radicalized masses from madrassas, untrained for employment make them ideal cannon fodder for the jihadi machinery.  This phenomenon nearly complete in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Frontier Province and is well under way in western and southern parts of Punjab, Pakistan’s largest province as well as large areas of Sindh.
  • 15.  In her book “Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War” C Christine Fair asserted that the Pakistani Army’s agenda goes beyond “wresting Kashmir from India” or avenging 1971.  Aimed at fostering an unending enmity with India to prevent its pre- eminence in South Asia. The animus of the Pakistani establishment has also been studied by Stephen Cohen in his book “The Idea of Pakistan”.  Promote its image as the “final bulwark for the Islamic culture of South Asia against Indian Hindu cultural and economic colonialism” and thereby maintain its dominance over the Pakistani state.
  • 16.  1953, Nehru-Liaquat Ali Talks: Nehru agreed to hold plebiscite in Kashmir, if an impartial Plebiscite Administrator could be found. Talks failed after Pakistan joined the US led CENTO & SEATO.  Indus Treaty (1961): division of Indus basin waters between Indian and Pakistan.  Tashkent (1965) and Simla (1971) Pacts: India was willing to give up the advantages of a better post war security position in return for a Pakistani commitment to resolving disputes through bilateral negotiations. Agreement on LOC.  Lahore Talks (1999): India again tried resolving issues with Pakistan. Kargil war led to Lahore failure. Peace talks with Pakistan: Talk to whom?
  • 17.  2001 Agra Summit: Talks failed despite promise of resolution in Kashmir because of intransigence by Musharraf and Advani.  2009 Shatt-al-Arab Talks: Talks failed after Pakistan accused India of interference in Baluchistan.  Ufa Talks (2015): India again tried discussing issues with Pakistan; ceasefire violations at border ended the initiative.  Pakistani Army determines relations with India and any politician wishing for a peace treaty with India frequently finds him or herself out of favour or power.  Pakistani leadership claimed that resolution of Kashmir dispute and other outstanding disputes such as the Sir Creek or Indus water division is central to improving relations with India but their actions have not been consistent with their claims Peace talks with Pakistan: Talk to whom?
  • 18. Peace talks with Pakistan: Talk to whom?
  • 19.  New Indian leadership taken hardline view.  Trying to isolate Pakistan regionally and internationally  New aggressiveness in India after 2014 border incidents and Myanmar cross border attack – will it be fruitfull?
  • 20.  Source of India-Pakistan conflict: natural imbalance of power between India and Pakistan, and the Pakistani refusal to accept this and come to terms with the existing reality.  The ruling class of Pakistan: Punjabi aristocrats and industrialists or the military class (80% of its officer class from the landed Punjabi gentry). This class views itself as the natural heir to the Mughal and post Mughal ruling class of the Indian subcontinent (C Christine Fair. Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War. Oxford University Press, May 2014)  Over the last three decades, this belief in an ultimate victory of Islam over non- believers has been ingrained very deeply in the psyche of the nation.  The Pakistani Army’s lower and younger ranks are getting even more radicalized and it accepts the “hadith” that it is their destiny as Muslim warriors to take part in the final conquest of the Indian subcontinent. Realistic Options for India
  • 21.  Younger radicalised generations will lead the Pakistani Army very soon and therefore Pakistan will continue to use terrorism or “non-state actors” and indulge in asymmetric warfare.  India cannot afford to wait for the 1971 generation who pine for revenge to die out. This monster has been institutionalized and is going to keep attacking India under any pretext. (C Christine Fair. Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War. Oxford University Press, May 2014)  General Pervez Musharraf, the architect of Kargil, in an interview in India in March 2009 warned India of many future Kargils and Siachens unless it agreed to Pakistani demands.  What India needs to do is change the existing ideology of Pakistan that Islam is the basis of Pakistan’s existence and that Pakistan is the citadel of Islam. Realistic Options for India
  • 22.  To allow for a genuine middle class, trade, democracy and development to happen in Pakistan; it would require the complete dismantling of the Pakistani defence forces and reshaping of the political and social climate.  The Pakistani Army would have to be reformed as a nationally representative, professional and apolitical force which would not have any say in political power.  For such changes to occur, the Pakistani state would need to be occupied and defanged. Any forcible occupation of Pakistan in the presence of a hostile if not totally defeated military, jihadi groups and vested interests from China and the Gulf would make the Afghanistan experience look like a bed of roses.  An occupying force would have to defeat a half million professionally trained, nuclear capable and well-armed defence force and if successful then face a hostile nation of nearly 200 million with hundreds of thousands of religious fanatics in densely populated urban and semi-urban clusters as well as remote mountainous terrain. Realistic Options for India
  • 23.  A better option for India would be to take advantage of the inherent divisions in the country and create internal weakness and if possible divisions within Pakistan.  Punjab constitutes less than 40% of the Pakistani landmass but controls most of the vast natural resources of the Baluchistan province or the waters of the Indus. Similarly Punjab accounts for nearly 70% of the military personnel, 75-80% of the officer class and about the same strength in the administrative services.  In 1948 Baluchistan was forcibly annexed into Pakistan and revolted in the mid-1960s as well as in 1974-77 and after 1995, which have been often put down ruthlessly by military force. Similar movements by the Mohajir community in Karachi city and by the local Sindhi population in the hinterlands of the Sindh province have been taking place.  Similar movements are to be seen in POK and in the Khyber Agency which are put down by the military and attacked by Sunni militants. Realistic Options for India
  • 24.
  • 25.  India could take advantage of these and use both hard and soft power to cause the implosion of the Pakistani state.  Soft power can mean moral support to the Balochis and Sindhis in International fora especially by skillful use of the print and electronic media  In addition, India could then wield its hard power options in the form of training to separatists, encouraging the leaders of the various state movements to establish bases as well as providing monetary and material support.  The aim should be to help in the process of break-up of Pakistan and removal of Pakistani ability to limit Indian reach into central Asia or the north Arabian Sea. Realistic Options for India
  • 26.
  • 27.  The Indian establishment should realize that “Pakistan” is run by a group of landed elite and a patrician military maintaining a façade of democracy for moralist consumption.  It has been long taught to Indians that a united, stable and secure Pakistan is in India’s best interests to avoid nuclear weapons falling into Jihadi hands.  This is a myth as Pakistan will keep plotting the next war (conventional or unconventional) against India in its quest to keep the ideological battle against India going.  Also use of nuclear weapons, their maintenance, weaponization and delivery requires a robust military-industrial-scientific complex which can only be run by a nation-state and not by jihadi groups. Conclusion
  • 28.  The only way India is going to get peace is to use every means possible to help Pakistani state disintegrate thus busting the Citadel of Islam myth of Pakistan.  It also gives India the best possible means of reintegrating Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, gain direct access to Central and South-west Asia and will leave the troublesome Punjabi core of Pakistan a landlocked state with much less strategic depth or resources to wage war against India.  This would free up the Indian western flank allowing it to concentrate on China as well as also establish India as a major Power in South-west Asia with influence over both Iran and the Gulf. Conclusion