‫ﺗﻄﻮرات اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻌﻘﺪ‬
‫اﻷﺧﻴﺮ وﺁﻓﺎق اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬
‫ﺑﺴﺎم ﻋﻮض‬
[(IMF, (2004). Jordan: Selected Issues and Statistical...
‫ﻓﻬﺮس اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮﻳﺎت‬
‫ﻓﻬﺮس اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮﻳﺎت.............................................................................................
‫اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت واﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت .........................................................................................................
‫اﻷردن – ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة وﻣﻠﺤﻖ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬

‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬
‫)1( إن اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ اﻟﺤﺎﺿﺮ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ آﻠﻴﺎ ﻋﻤﺎ آﺎن ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓ...
‫ﺑﺴﺎم ﻋﻮض‬

‫اﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ ﻣﺮﻳﺢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻼت اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ. رﻏﻢ ذﻟﻚ، ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺒﺪو أن ﻋﺐء اﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ إدارﺗﻪ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ‬
‫ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﺼﺪﻣﺎت اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻴﺔ ﻋ...
‫اﻷردن – ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة وﻣﻠﺤﻖ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬

‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ واﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ‬
‫أ. ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬
‫)01( ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎم 3991 ...
‫ﺑﺴﺎم ﻋﻮض‬

‫اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ وﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﻌﻘﺒﺔ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ واﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺷﻤﺎل اﻷردن. وﻻ ﺷﻚ أن‬
‫اﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد ...
‫اﻷردن – ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة وﻣﻠﺤﻖ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬

‫)61( هﻨﺎك اﺗﻔﺎق ﻋﺎم ﻓﻲ اﻷدﺑﻴﺎت اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ ﺑﺄن اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺿﺮوري ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻧﻤ...
‫ﺑﺴﺎم ﻋﻮض‬

‫اﻹﻃﺎر 2-1 أداء اﻟﺼﺎدرات ﻓﻲ 1002-2002‬
‫ﻟﻘﺪ آﺎن ﻧﻤﻮ اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻣﻲ 1002 و 2002 ﻗﻮﻳﺎ ﺟﺪا – ﺿﻤﻦ ﺑﺤﻮاﻟﻲ...
‫اﻷردن – ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة وﻣﻠﺤﻖ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬

‫ﺟﺪول)2-3(: ﻧﻤﻮ اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻟﺴﻠﻌﻴﺔ، 3991-3002‬

‫)02( إن اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻟﺬي ﺷﻬﺪﺗﻪ اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻟﺴﻠ...
‫ﺑﺴﺎم ﻋﻮض‬

‫)32( وﻓﻲ ﻧﺴﺨﺔ ﻣﺤﺪﺛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ، ﻳﺘﺒﻴﻦ ﺣﺪوث اﻧﺘﻌﺎش ﻣﻌﻘﻮل ﻓﻲ اﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻲ 1002‬
‫و2002. وﻳﺪرج ﺟﺪول)2-...
‫اﻷردن – ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة وﻣﻠﺤﻖ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬

‫)82( رﻏﻢ ذﻟﻚ ﻓﺈن اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﺗﻜﻮن ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪرﺟﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺪﻋﻤﻬﺎ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎت ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ...
‫ﺑﺴﺎم ﻋﻮض‬

‫)23( ﻟﻘﺪ ﺗﺒﻌﺖ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎت ﺗﺤﺮﻳﺮ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة ﻣﺘﻌﺪدة اﻷﻃﺮاف ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎت ﺗﺠﺎرﻳﺔ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺑﻬﺪف زﻳﺎدة‬
‫دﺧﻮل اﻟﺼﺎدرات ا...
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
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Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
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Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
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Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
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Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
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Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
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Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
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Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)
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Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)

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This is the IMF country report about Jordan. I have translated this document into Arabic in 2004. Though an old document, but includes valuable information for those interested in Jordan economy.

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Economic Developments and Outlook for the Jordan (1994-2004)

  1. 1. ‫ﺗﻄﻮرات اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻌﻘﺪ‬ ‫اﻷﺧﻴﺮ وﺁﻓﺎق اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﺴﺎم ﻋﻮض‬ [(IMF, (2004). Jordan: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix. Country Report No. (4/121)] ‫أ‬
  2. 2. ‫ﻓﻬﺮس اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮﻳﺎت‬ ‫ﻓﻬﺮس اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮﻳﺎت........................................................................................................................................................................................................... ب‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................1‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................1‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................3‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ واﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ ..........................................................................................................................................................................3‬ ‫أ. ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3‬ ‫ب. اﻟﺪﻻﺋﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار واﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ ..................................................................................................................................................................... 3‬ ‫ج. ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺜﺒﻴﺖ واﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ............................................................................................................................................................................. 8‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 8‬ ‫ﺗﺤﺮﻳﺮ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ................................................................................................................................................................................................................51‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ واﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻬﻴﻜﻞ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷردن ...............................................................................................................................................51‬ ‫51‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬ ‫أ.‬ ‫ب. ﺗﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ واﻟﺪوﻟﻲ )1991-1002( ............................................................................................................................ 51‬ ‫ج. ﺗﺤﺪي اﺳﺘﺪاﻣﺔ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 91‬ ‫د. اﻟﺘﺤﺪي اﻟﺬي ﻳﻔﺮﺿﻪ هﻴﻜﻞ اﻟﻤﻴﺰاﻧﻴﺔ ......................................................................................................................................................................... 12‬ ‫إﺻﻼح ﻧﻈﺎم اﻹﻳﺮادات........................................................................................................................................................................................ 22‬ ‫هـ. إﺻﻼح ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎت ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 42‬ ‫ﺗﺤﺪي اﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎت اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ .................................................................................................................................................................. 52‬ ‫و. اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 62‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ ................................................................................................................................................................................................................82‬ ‫دﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺎت اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ واﻻﺳﺘﺪاﻣﺔ ................................................................................................................................................................................82‬ ‫82‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬ ‫أ.‬ ‫ب. ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ إدارة اﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻷردن ............................................................................................................................................................................... 82‬ ‫ج. ﻣﺴﺎر اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 03‬ ‫د. دﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺎت اﻟﺪﻳﻦ ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 33‬ ‫هـ. أﺑﻌﺎد ﻋﺐء اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻟﻸردن .......................................................................................................................................................................... 63‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺎت ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﺪول............................................................................................................................................................................................ 63‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺨﻤﻴﻦ ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 93‬ ‫و. اﻻﺳﺘﺪاﻣﺔ / اﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎت ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 04‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ .............................................................................................................................................................................................................44‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ واﺳﺘﺮاﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻷﺟﻞ .......................................................................................................................................................44‬ ‫أ. اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﻌﺎم ﺧﻼل اﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎت .................................................................................................................................................................. 44‬ ‫ب. ﺗﻄﻮرات ﺗﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ واﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﻌﺎم ﻓﻲ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺒﺎت اﻻﺳﺘﻌﺪاد اﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻧﻲ ....................................................................................................................... 44‬ ‫ج. ﺁﻓﺎق اﻷﺟﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 64‬ ‫د. أوﻟﻮﻳﺎت اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 84‬ ‫هـ. اﻹﻳﺮادات ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 84‬ ‫و. اﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎت ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 94‬ ‫ز. اﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎت ﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﺨﻂ ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 05‬ ‫ح. اﻟﺘﻌﺮﺿﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 15‬ ‫ط. اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺟﺎت ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 15‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺴﺎدس .............................................................................................................................................................................................................25‬ ‫ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﺤﻤﺎﻳﺔ اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ..................................................................................................................................................................................25‬ ‫أ. ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25‬ ‫ب. ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺒﺎت اﻟﺤﻤﺎﻳﺔ اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻗﺒﻴﻞ أزﻣﺔ 8891-9891 .................................................................................................................................................. 35‬ ‫ج. أﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ اﻟﺤﻤﺎﻳﺔ اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ............................................................................................................................................................................. 45‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺄة وإﺻﻼح ﻣﻌﻮﻧﺎت اﻟﻐﺬاء ............................................................................................................................................................................... 45‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻮﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎت اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ ................................................................................................................................................................................... 65‬ ‫ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﻤﻌﻮﻧﺔ اﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ .................................................................................................................................................................................... 85‬ ‫د. اﻟﻀﻤﺎن اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ وأﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﻘﺎﻋﺪ .......................................................................................................................................................................... 06‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻀﻤﺎن اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ...................................................................................................................................................................... 06‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﻘﺎﻋﺪ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﺪﻧﻴﺔ .................................................................................................................................................................................. 26‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﺘﻘﺎﻋﺪ اﻟﻌﺴﻜﺮي ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 26‬ ‫هـ. اﻹﻧﻔﺎق ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ واﻟﺼﺤﺔ ................................................................................................................................................................................. 46‬ ‫اﻹﻧﻔﺎق ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 46‬ ‫اﻹﻧﻔﺎق ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺼﺤﺔ .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 56‬ ‫و. اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 66‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................96‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻤﻮد ﻓﻲ وﺟﻴﻪ اﻻزﻣﺎت واﻟﺠﺪارة اﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﺴﻴﺎدﻳﺔ ...........................................................................................................................................................96‬ ‫أ. ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 96‬ ‫ب. ﻣﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ اﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻧﻲ اﻟﺴﻴﺎدي ....................................................................................................................................................................... 07‬ ‫ج. ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ اﻷردن ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 17‬ ‫د. ﻗﻮاﺋﻢ ﻣﻴﺰاﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﺨﺎص.................................................................................................................................................................................. 47‬ ‫هـ. ﺧﺎرﻃﺔ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻟﻌﻼﻣﺔ اﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ................................................................................................................................................................................ 87‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎت اﻟﺪﺧﻞ وأداء اﻟﻨﻤﻮ ................................................................................................................................................................................ 97‬ ‫ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ وهﻴﻜﻞ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﻌﺎم ................................................................................................................................................................. 08‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 18‬ ‫ﻗﻮاﺋﻢ ﻣﻴﺰاﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﺨﺎص ............................................................................................................................................................................... 18‬ ‫و. اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 28‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻣﻦ ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................48‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ اﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻴﺔ وﺁﻓﺎق اﻟﺼﺎدرات .........................................................................................................................................................................48‬ ‫أ. اﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻴﺔ .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 48‬ ‫ب. ﻣﺼﺎدر اﻟﻌﺮض واﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻴﺰة اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ .......................................................................................................................................................... 88‬ ‫ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ اﻟﻌﺮض.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 88‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮاهﺐ اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 88‬ ‫ب‬
  3. 3. ‫اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت واﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 98‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻜﺘﻼت ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 09‬ ‫ج. ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 09‬ ‫اﻟﺮواﺑﻂ اﻟﺠﻐﺮاﻓﻴﺔ واﻟﺜﻘﺎﻓﻴﺔ ................................................................................................................................................................................. 09‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺒﺎت اﻟﺘﺠﺎرﻳﺔ اﻟﺘﻔﻀﻴﻠﻴﺔ ............................................................................................................................................................................... 19‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺎدر اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺼﺎدرات .............................................................................................................................................................................. 19‬ ‫د. اﻵﻓﺎق واﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎت ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 29‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................79‬ ‫ج‬
  4. 4. ‫اﻷردن – ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة وﻣﻠﺤﻖ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬ ‫)1( إن اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ اﻟﺤﺎﺿﺮ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ آﻠﻴﺎ ﻋﻤﺎ آﺎن ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎت. ﺣﻴﺚ أﺳﻬﻤﺖ‬ ‫ٌ ً‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ اﻟﺤﻜﻴﻤﺔ واﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎت اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ اﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻌﻘﺪ اﻷﺧﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫اﻷردن ﻣﻦ ﺑﻠﺪ ﻣﻐﻠﻖ وﻣﺴﻴﻄﺮ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ وﻋﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﻤﺪﻳﻮﻧﻴﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺑﻠﺪ ذي اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺗﺼﺪﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﻪ اﻟﺨﺎص اﻟﻤﺤﺮك اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي. وﻗﺪ ﺗﺤﺮك اﻷردن ﺑﺨﻄﻰ واﺳﻌﺔ ﻧﺤﻮ‬ ‫ُ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﻋﺐء دﻳﻨﻪ اﻟﻌﺎم اﻟﻤﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺮ وﺗﺤﺮﻳﻜﻪ ﻧﺤﻮ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎت ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺮة، وﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻋﺠﺰ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻴﺰاﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺮﺗﻔﻊ. ورﻏﻢ ذﻟﻚ، ﻓﺈن أﺟﻨﺪة اﻹﺻﻼح اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻓﻲ اﻷردن ﻟﻢ ﺗﻨﺘﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ. وﻗﺪ ﻋﺎﻧﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ.‬ ‫)2( إن اﻟﻘﻀﻴﺔ اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺎدت آﺎﻓﺔ أﺟﺰاء هﺬا اﻟﻜﺘﺎب هﻲ أﻧﻪ "ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ أﻧﻪ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﻠﺤﻮظ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﻜﻠﻲ، وﺗﻌﺰﻳﺰ وﺿﻊ ﻣﻴﺰان اﻟﻤﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎت‬ ‫وﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ وﺗﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ وﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ وﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ، ﻓﺈن اﻷردن ﻻ ﻳﺰال‬ ‫ﻳﻮاﺟﻪ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺎت آﺒﻴﺮة ﻓﻲ اﻷﺟﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ." ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺗﺤﺴﻴﻦ إﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي‬ ‫وﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﻋﺐء دﻳﻨﻪ اﻟﻌﺎم اﻟﺬي ﻻ ﻳﺰال ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌً، وآﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻋﺠﺰ اﻟﻤﻴﺰاﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺮﺗﻔﻊ. وﺗﻨﺒﺜﻖ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎت اﻷﺧﺮى ﻣﻦ اﻗﺘﺮاب اﻷردن ﻣﻦ إﻳﻘﺎف اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺒﺮاﻣﺞ اﻹﺻﻼح اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎون ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﻨﻘﺪ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ، وإﻟﻐﺎء اﻣﺘﻴﺎز ﺣﺼﺺ ﺗﺼﺪﻳﺮ اﻷﻗﻤﺸﺔ اﻟﺬي آﺎن ﻣﻤﻨﻮﺣﺎ ﻟﻸردن ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ. وﺗﻮﺿﺢ اﻟﻨﻘﺎط اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻳﺎت اﻟﻔﺼﻮل اﻟﻼﺣﻘﺔ.‬ ‫)3( ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﺮاﺟﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻄﻮرات ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﻌﻴﺪ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﻜﻠﻲ واﻟﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎ ذات اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻘﺪ اﻷﺧﻴﺮ. وﻳﺮآﺰ هﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﺠﺎﻻت ﻟﻺﺻﻼح، وهﻲ اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫واﻟﻨﻤﻮ، وﺗﺤﺮﻳﺮ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة، واﻟﺨﺼﺨﺼﺔ. وهﺬﻩ اﻟﻤﺠﺎﻻت آﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﺤﺎور أﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﺬي‬ ‫ﺷﻬﺪهﺎ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻘﺪ اﻷﺧﻴﺮ. وﻳﺒﻴﻦ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﻊ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﻳﻌﻜﺴﻬﺎ اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار‬ ‫اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ زﻳﺎدة اﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر اﻷردﻧﻲ وﺗﺰاﻳﺪ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ. آﻤﺎ ﻳﻘﻮم هﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﺪراﺳﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺮواﺑﻂ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺒﺎدرات ﺧﻄﻂ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة وﺗﺤﺴﻴﻦ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ آﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﻟﺠﺬب اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ.‬ ‫وﻳﺘﻮﺻﻞ هﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج ﻣﻔﺎدﻩ أن اﻷردن ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷرﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ آﺒﻴﺮة ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎم ﺑﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻮر ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﺿﻊ اﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ.‬ ‫)4( أﻣﺎ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻓﻴﺘﻄﺮق إﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎت اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ واﺟﻬﻬﺎ اﻷردن ﻓﻲ ﺑﻨﺎء ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﻪ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎت. وﻳﺘﻮﺻﻞ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج ﺗﺮاﺟﻊ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎت ﻋﺠﺰ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ وﻋﺐء‬ ‫اﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﻧﺤﻮ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎت ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺮة، رﻏﻢ أن هﺬا اﻟﺘﻘﺪم آﺎن ﺑﻄﻴﺌﺎ وﺻﻌﺒﺎ ﻓﻲ آﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻷﺣﻴﺎن. آﻤﺎ ﻳﺤﺪد‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﻲ أﺳﻬﻤﺖ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺠﺎح اﻷردن ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺗﺤﺪي ﻋﺪم اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ. آﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻄﺮق‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم اﻟﺬي ﺗﻢ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﻪ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎل ﺗﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻣﺮوﻧﺔ وﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ. آﻤﺎ ﻳﺒﺤﺚ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫آﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ هﺪف ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻘﺪرة اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺪة اﻟﺘﺬﺑﺬب‬ ‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي واﻹﺳﻬﺎم ﻓﻲ إدارة اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ.‬ ‫)5( وﻳﻘﻮم اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻟﻸردن واﺳﺘﺮاﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ إدارة دﻳﻦ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ اﻟﻌﺎم ﺧﻼل‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻘﺪ اﻷﺧﻴﺮ، وﻳﺤﺎول ﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮ دﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻋﺐء اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام إﻃﺎر ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻲ ﻟﻤﻴﺰان‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎت. إﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﺎ ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﺪول ﻟﺘﺨﻤﻴﻦ اﻟﻤﺪى اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻟﻌﺐء اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ،‬ ‫إﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع اﻻﺳﺘﺪاﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺪى اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ. وﻳﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ أﻧﻪ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻟﻤﻼﺋﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ إدارة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﺈن ﻣﻴﺰان اﻟﺤﺴﺎب اﻟﺠﺎري اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ وﻣﻴﺰان ﺣﺴﺎب رأس اﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫واﻻﻧﺨﻔﺎض اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺪام ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻗﺪ اﻧﺘﻘﻠﺖ إﻟﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎت ﻣﻨﺴﺠﻤﺔ. واﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ أن اﻟﺰﻳﺎدة‬ ‫اﻻﺳﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻨﻮات اﻷﺧﻴﺮة ﻗﺪ ﺟﺎءت ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺟﻬﻮد اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎت اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻨﺎء‬ ‫1‬
  5. 5. ‫ﺑﺴﺎم ﻋﻮض‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ ﻣﺮﻳﺢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻼت اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ. رﻏﻢ ذﻟﻚ، ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺒﺪو أن ﻋﺐء اﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ إدارﺗﻪ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﺼﺪﻣﺎت اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻴﺔ ﻋﺪا اﻟﺼﺪﻣﺎت اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻴﺔ ﺷﺪﻳﺪة اﻟﻮﻃﺄة.‬ ‫)6( ﻳﺘﻨﺎول اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ اﻷﺟﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻷردن ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ أهﺪاف ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ‬ ‫اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﻌﺎم, ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ أداء اﻷردن ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺗﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ وﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺒﺎت اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﻨﻘﺪ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ. آﻤﺎ ﻳﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﻋﺎدة ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﻌﺎم ﻓﻲ ﺿﻮء اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات‬ ‫اﻷﺧﻴﺮة. وﻳﺤﺪد هﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ وﻳﻨﺎﻗﺶ أوﻟﻮﻳﺎت اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺟﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ أهﺪاف اﻟﺪﻳﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎم واﺳﺘﺪاﻣﺔ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ.‬ ‫)7( ﻳﺘﻄﺮق اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺴﺎدس إﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم اﻟﻤﻠﺤﻮظ اﻟﺬي ﺣﻘﻘﻪ اﻷردن ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻘﺪ اﻷﺧﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎل ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاﻣﺞ اﻟﺤﻤﺎﻳﺔ اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ واﻟﻤﻜﺎﺳﺐ اﻟﻤﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ وﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎت اﻟﻔﻘﺮ.‬ ‫وﻗﺪ أﺑﺮز اﻻﻧﻬﻴﺎر اﻟﺤﺎد ﻓﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎت اﻟﻔﻘﺮ اﻟﺬي ﻧﺠﻢ ﻋﻦ اﻷزﻣﺔ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ وﻗﻌﺖ ﺧﻼل‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻣﻲ 8891 و9891 اﻟﺤﺎﺟﺔ إﻟﻰ وﺟﻮد ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ رﺳﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﺤﻤﺎﻳﺔ اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷردن. وﻳﻨﺎﻗﺶ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ هﻜﺬا ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ، واﻟﺬي آﺎن ﻣﺴﺘﻨﺪً إﻟﻰ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ أرآﺎن: )1( ﺣﺰﻣﺔ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫أﻣﺎن اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻣﻤﻮﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﻘﺮاء واﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺮوﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ. و)2( ﻧﻈﺎم ﺿﻤﺎن‬ ‫اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﺗﺸﺎرآﻲ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﻳﻮﻓﺮ ﺗﻐﻄﻴﺔ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﻴﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد. و)3( ﻧﻈﺎم إﻧﻔﺎق ﻋﺎم‬ ‫ﻓ ّﺎل وﻣﻮﺟﻪ ﺟﻴﺪا ﻟﻠﺼﺤﺔ واﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ، وﻳﻀﻤﻦ ﺗﺴﺎوي ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﻤﻮاﻃﻨﻴﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻔﺎدة ﻣﻨﻬﺎ، ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻌ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺮآﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻷﻗﻞ ﺣﻈﺎ. وﻳﺨﺘﺘﻢ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ أﺟﻨﺪة إﺻﻼح ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ً‬ ‫)8( أﻣﺎ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ، ﻓﻴﻨﺎﻗﺶ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎت اﻷردن ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺪﺧﻮل أﺳﻮاق رأس اﻟﻤﺎل اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻠﻔﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﺮﺟﻪ اﻟﻘﺎدم ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﺮاﻣﺞ اﻟﻤﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﻨﻘﺪ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ. وﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺘﺤﺴﻦ اﻟﺬي‬ ‫ﻇﻬﺮ ﺣﺪﻳﺜً، ﻓﺈن اﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻔﺎت اﻟﺴﻴﺎدﻳﺔ ﻟﻼﺋﺘﻤﺎن هﻲ أﻗﻞ ﺑﻤﻘﺪار درﺟﺘﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر. وﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻬﻢ ﺗﺤﺴﻦ هﺬﻩ اﻷرﻗﺎم ﺣﺘﻰ ﻻ ﻳﺘﻌﺮض دﺧﻮل اﻷردن إﻟﻰ أﺳﻮاق رأس اﻟﻤﺎل اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ، وﺣﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻳﺤﺼﻞ اﻷردن ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺮوط ﻣﻴﺴﺮة ﻓﻲ اﻻﺳﺘﺪاﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﻮق. وﻳﺒﺪأ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻤﺮاﺟﻌﺔ ﻟﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺎت‬ ‫وآﺎﻻت اﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ اﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻧﻲ اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ وﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ هﺬﻩ اﻟﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷردن ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻋﺪة‬ ‫ﻣﺠﺎﻻت. أوﻻ، ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻣﺮاﺟﻌﺔ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم اﻟﺬي ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﺎرﻳﺨﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ أﻗﻄﺎر أﺧﺮى ﺗﻘﻊ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ذات اﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ، وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ اﻟﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎ اﻟﻤﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﻘﻮاﺋﻢ ﻣﻴﺰاﻧﻴﺎت اﻟﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﺨﺎص. وﺑﻌﺪ ذﻟﻚ ﻳﺤﺎول‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ رﺳﻢ ﺧﺎرﻃﺔ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة. وﻳﺨﺘﺘﻢ هﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج أن إﻃﺎر ﻋﻤﻞ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد‬ ‫اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻷردن واﺳﺘﺮاﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ إدارة اﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﻳﻨﺴﺠﻤﺎن ﻣﻊ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻔﺎت ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ أآﺜﺮ، و، إذ ﺗﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﺪاﻣﺔ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ﻋﻠﻰ هﺬﻩ اﻟﺠﺒﻬﺎت، ﻓﺈن اﻷردن ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﻳﺤﻘﻖ ﺗﻘﺪﻣﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﺧﻼل ﺳﻨﻮات ﻗﻠﻴﻠﺔ.‬ ‫)9( أﻣﺎ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻣﻦ، ﻓﻴﻬﺪف إﻟﻰ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ اﺳﺘﺪاﻣﺔ اﻻﻧﺘﻌﺎش ﻓﻲ اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻟﺬي ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﺆﺧﺮا ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻷﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎر ﻟﻴﺲ ﻓﻘﻂ اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ، وﻟﻜﻦ أﻳﻀﺎ اﻷﺳﺲ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﺠﺰﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﻨﻤﻮ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻟﺼﺎدرات. وﻳﺮاﺟﻊ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ اﻷردن اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺿﻮء اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات اﻟﺤﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﺎدرات. ﺛﻢ ﻳﻘﻮم ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﺼﺎدر اﻟﻌﺮض واﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻴﺰة اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ، واﻟﺘﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬ ‫أن ﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎت اﻟﺼﺎدرات ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ اﻷﺟﻞ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ. وأﺧﻴﺮً،‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ هﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻧﻈﺮة ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ اﻷﺟﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻷردن، وﺗﺨﻤﻴﻨﺎت ﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎت‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎﻋﻪ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻷﺛﺮ ﺗﺠﺎهﻞ ﺣﺼﺺ اﻷﻧﺴﺠﺔ واﻷﻟﺒﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ. وﻳﺮى‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ أن اﻷردن ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻞ أن ﻳﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﺪاﻣﺔ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎت ﺟﻴﺪة ﻟﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ اﻷﺟﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ، ﻣﻊ ﺿﺮورة اﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺤﺪدات ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ اﻟﻌﺮض.‬ ‫2‬
  6. 6. ‫اﻷردن – ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة وﻣﻠﺤﻖ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ واﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ‬ ‫أ. ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬ ‫)01( ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎم 3991 آﺎن اﻷردن ﻗﺪ ﺗﻌﺎﻓﻰ ﻟﺘﻮﻩ ﻣﻦ أزﻣﺔ أﺳﻌﺎر ﺻﺮف وأزﻣﺔ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﺣﺎدﺗﻴﻦ أدﺗﺎ إﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻧﺨﻔﺎض ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻣﻌﻴﺸﺔ اﻟﻤﻮاﻃﻦ اﻷردﻧﻲ ﺑﻤﻘﺪار اﻟﻨﺼﻒ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒً وﺟﻌﻠﺖ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻏﺎرﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎم. وﻗﺪ آﺎن اﻷردن ﻗﺪ ﺗﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ اﻵﺛﺎر اﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﺤﺮب اﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ. آﻤﺎ آﺎن ﻳﻘﺎﺗﻞ‬ ‫ﻻﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎب اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ اﻟﻬﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻐﺘﺮﺑﻴﻦ اﻷردﻧﻴﻴﻦ اﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻓﺮوا ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺤﺮب. وآﺎن اﻟﻘﻄﺎع‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻣﻨﻈﻢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺟﻴﺪ، آﻤﺎ آﺎﻧﺖ ﺻﺎدرات اﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺮآﺰت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎت اﻟﺰراﻋﻴﺔ واﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻨﻴﺔ.‬ ‫وﻓﻲ ذﻟﻚ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ، ﺳﻴﻄﺮت اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺼﺔ آﺒﻴﺮة ﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﺎج اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ وﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﺑﻤﺮاﻗﺒﺔ وﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ‬ ‫أﺳﻌﺎر ﻏﺎﻟﺒﻴﺔ اﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻣﻊ وﺟﻮد ﺗﺸﻮهﺎت واﺿﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ هﻴﻜﻞ اﻷﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ.‬ ‫)11( وﺑﻌﺪ ﻋﻘﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰﻣﺎن، ﻓﺈن اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ ﻳﺒﺪو ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺎ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎ. ﻓﺒﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻵﺛﺎر اﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺮة‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﺮاع اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻲ اﻹﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻠﻲ واﻟﻔﻮﺿﻰ اﻟﺘﻲ أﻋﻘﺒﺖ ﺣﺮب اﻟﻌﺮاق، ﻓﺈن اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻳﺘﺼﺎﻋﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺜﺒﺎت وﻗﻄﺎع اﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﻳﺰدهﺮ. آﻤﺎ أن هﻴﻜﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻳﺘﺤﻮل ﻧﺤﻮ دﻋﻢ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻪ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ، ﻓﻲ ﺣﻴﻦ أن اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ، اﻟﺬي آﺎن ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﻤﺼﺪر اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، ﻗﺪ‬ ‫ﺗﺮاﺟﻊ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ آﺒﻴﺮ. وﻗﺪ ﻗﺎﻣﺖ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺨﺼﺨﺼﺔ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﻤﻠﻮآﺔ ﻟﻠﺪوﻟﺔ‬ ‫وﺣﺮرت أﺳﻌﺎر أﻏﻠﺐ اﻟﺴﻠﻊ. واﻷآﺜﺮ أهﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ذﻟﻚ هﻮ اﻟﺴﻤﻌﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺤﻘﻘﻬﺎ اﻷردن ﺗﺪرﻳﺠﻴﺎ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ آﻤﻼذ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ اﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎم ﺑﺄﻋﻤﺎﻟﻬﻢ. وﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﺤﻘﻖ اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻷﻣﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﻓﺈن ﻓﺮص ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺳﻮف ﺗﺼﺒﺢ أآﺒﺮ.‬ ‫)21( اﻟﻄﺮح اﻟﺬي ﻳﺮآﺰ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ هﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ هﻮ أن اﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﺬي ﺷﻬﺪﻩ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻌﻘﺪ اﻷﺧﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﻳﺮﺟﻊ إﻟﻰ ﺣﺪ آﺒﻴﺮ إﻟﻰ اﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎت اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ أﻧﺠﺰﺗﻬﺎ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎون ﻣﻊ‬ ‫)1( ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار‬ ‫ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﻨﻘﺪ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ. وﻗﺪ ﺟﺎءت اﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎت ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ اﻷهﺪاف اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ:‬ ‫اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻌﺰﻳﺰ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، و)2( ﺗﺤﺮﻳﺮ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻴﺔ واﻷﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ،‬ ‫و)3( ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﻌﺎم، و)4( اﻟﺨﺼﺨﺼﺔ )ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎرﻳﻊ اﻟﻤﻤﻠﻮآﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ(. وهﺬﻩ اﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎت ﻗﺪ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫أدت ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺗﺤﻮل هﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﺑﺪأ ﺣﺪﻳﺜﺎ ﻳﻘﻄﻒ ﺛﻤﺎرﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺗﺰاﻳﺪ ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺼﺎدرات واﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ وﺑﺎﻟﺪرﺟﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ وﺗﻴﺮة اﻹﺻﻼح وﻳﺘﺤﺴﻦ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻮﺿﻊ اﻷﻣﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﺳﻴﺘﺰاﻳﺪ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﺴﺎرع وﻳﺆدي إﻟﻰ ﺣﺪوث‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻮل ﺟﺎد وﻣﻠﺤﻮظ وهﺎم ﻓﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎت اﻟﻔﻘﺮ واﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ.‬ ‫)31( اﻟﺒﻨﺪ )ب( ﻣﻦ هﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻳﻘﺪم اﻟﺪﻻﺋﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻹﺻﻼح واﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ ﺧﻼل‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻘﺪ اﻷﺧﻴﺮ. ﻓﻲ ﺣﻴﻦ ﻳﻨﺎﻗﺶ اﻟﺒﻨﺪ )ج( ﻳﻨﺎﻗﺶ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ أدت إﻟﻰ هﺬا اﻟﺘﺤﻮل،‬ ‫وﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪا اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﻟﻜﻠﻲ، وﺗﺤﺮﻳﺮ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة واﻟﺘﺨﺎﺻﻴﺔ ) ﺗﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ هﻮ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺿﻮع اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ(. أﻣﺎ اﻟﺒﻨﺪ )د(، ﻓﻴﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻣﺮاﺟﻌﺔ ﻣﺨﺘﺼﺮة ﻟﻠﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎت اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫وﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﻨﻘﺪ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ، آﻤﺎ ﻳﻨﺎﻗﺶ ﺑﺈﻳﺠﺎز أﺛﺮ ﺣﺮب اﻟﻌﺮاق.‬ ‫ب. اﻟﺪﻻﺋﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار واﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫)41( إن اﻟﺪﻻﺋﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار واﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻨﻮات اﻷﺧﻴﺮة واﺿﺤﺔ. وآﻞ‬ ‫زاﺋﺮ ﻟﻌﻤﺎن ﺑﻌﺪ ﻏﻴﺎب ﻋﺸﺮ ﺳﻨﻮات ﺳﻮف ﻳﻠﺤﻆ إﻋﺎدة ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻧﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة‬ ‫اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻴﺔ واﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ واﻟﺨﺪﻣﺎت اﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ اﻷﺧﺮى. إن اﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﺬي أﺻﺎب ﻃﺎﺑﻊ اﻟﻤﺪﻳﻨﺔ ﻟﻢ ﻳﻜﻦ ﻓﻘﻂ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﺟﻤﺎ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻟﻔﻨﺎدق اﻟﺪرﺟﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ وﻟﻜﻦ أﻳﻀﺎ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔﻴﺎت، ﻧﺎهﻴﻚ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻤﺮاآﺰ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻟﻄﺒﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﺮوﻓﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺎ واﻟﺠﺎﻣﻌﺎت وﻣﺮاآﺰ اﻟﺘﺪرﻳﺐ واﻟﻤﻌﺎرض اﻟﺘﺠﺎرﻳﺔ اﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ. واﻷآﺜﺮ أهﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻣﻦ هﺬا هﻮ أن ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ إﻋﺎدة ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺗﻨﺘﺸﺮ ﺧﺎرج ﻋﻤﺎن أﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫3‬
  7. 7. ‫ﺑﺴﺎم ﻋﻮض‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ وﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﻌﻘﺒﺔ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ واﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺷﻤﺎل اﻷردن. وﻻ ﺷﻚ أن‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد آﺒﻴﺮ، ﺳﻮاء ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت أو ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ.‬ ‫ً‬ ‫)51( هﺬا اﻟﺒﻨﺪ ﻳﺒﻴﻦ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻷدﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ، وﻳﺮآﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻘﺎط اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ: )1( اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار‬ ‫اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﻟﻜﻠﻲ واﻟﺜﻘﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﺰاﻳﺪة ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر اﻷردﻧﻲ، و)2( اﻷهﻤﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﺰاﻳﺪة ﻟﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ، و)3(‬ ‫واﻟﺪﻻﺋﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ. وﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺟﺪول)2-1( اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ واﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻨﻮات اﻹﺣﺪى ﻋﺸﺮة اﻷﺧﻴﺮة. وﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎم، ﻓﺈن اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺒﻨﻰ ﺗﺤﻮﻻ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻣﻐﻠﻖ إﻟﻰ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺗﺼﺪﻳﺮي ﻳﻘﻮدﻩ ﻗﻄﺎع ﺧﺎص دﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ ﻟﻸﺳﺒﺎب اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻴﻌﺮﺿﻬﺎ اﻟﺒﻨﺪ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ.‬ ‫ﺟﺪول )2-1(: ﻣﺆﺷﺮات اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة‬ ‫7991‬ ‫6991‬ ‫5991‬ ‫4991‬ ‫)اﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮات اﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ اﻟﻤﺌﻮﻳﺔ(‬ ‫اﻹﻧﺘﺎج واﻷﺳﻌﺎر‬ ‫3.3‬ ‫1.2‬ ‫2.6‬ ‫0.5‬ ‫2.1‬ ‫1.2‬ ‫9.1‬ ‫9.6‬ ‫6.4‬ ‫2.4‬ ‫2.8‬ ‫2.21‬ ‫0.3‬ ‫5.6‬ ‫3.2‬ ‫6.3‬ ‫3.6‬ ‫6.2‬ ‫1.4‬ ‫1.5‬ ‫3991‬ ‫اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﺴﻮق‬ ‫ﻣﺨﻔﺾ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﺴﻮق‬ ‫اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻻﺳﻤﻲ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﺴﻮق‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻷﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ )ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺳﻨﻮي(‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻷﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ )ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة(‬ ‫اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻻﺳﻤﻲ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﺴﻮق‬ ‫)ﻣﻠﻴﻮن دﻳﻨﺎر(‬ ‫إﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ‬ ‫أﺧﺮى‬ ‫إﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻻدﺧﺎر اﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ‬ ‫أﺧﺮى‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺰان اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر-اﻻدﺧﺎر‬ ‫اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ‬ ‫أﺧﺮى‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎت اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫اﻹﻳﺮادات واﻟﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫وﻣﻨﻬﺎ اﻟﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎت وﺻﺎﻓﻲ اﻹﻗﺮاض )ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﺎت ﺧﺎرج‬ ‫ﺑﻨﻮد اﻟﻤﻮازﻧﺔ(‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺰان اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ )ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﻤﻨﺢ(‬ ‫دﻳﻦ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ واﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﻤﻜﻔﻮل ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ /1‬ ‫وﻣﻨﻬﺎ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺰان اﻟﺤﺴﺎب اﻟﺠﺎري )ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﻤﻨﺢ(‬ ‫5.4‬ ‫8.2‬ ‫4.7‬ ‫3.3‬ ‫6.1‬ ‫529,3‬ ‫6.72‬ ‫3.6‬ ‫4.12‬ ‫1.61‬ ‫7.5‬ ‫4.01‬ ‫5.11-‬ ‫5.0-‬ ‫9.01-‬ ‫104,4‬ ‫477,4‬ ‫289,4‬ ‫831,5‬ ‫)ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ(‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر واﻻدﺧﺎر‬ ‫8.12‬ ‫4.32‬ ‫5.52‬ ‫3.52‬ ‫6.5‬ ‫3.7‬ ‫0.7‬ ‫0.6‬ ‫3.61‬ ‫1.61‬ ‫5.81‬ ‫2.91‬ ‫2.22‬ ‫2.02‬ ‫7.12‬ ‫9.81‬ ‫1.3‬ ‫4.4‬ ‫1.3‬ ‫6.4‬ ‫2.91‬ ‫7.51‬ ‫6.81‬ ‫2.41‬ ‫4.0‬ ‫2.3-‬ ‫8.3-‬ ‫4.6-‬ ‫5.2-‬ ‫8.2-‬ ‫9.3-‬ ‫4.1-‬ ‫9.2‬ ‫4.0-‬ ‫1.0‬ ‫0.5-‬ ‫8991‬ ‫9991‬ ‫0002‬ ‫1002‬ ‫2002‬ ‫3002‬ ‫0.3‬ ‫0.6‬ ‫2.9‬ ‫1.3‬ ‫8.0-‬ ‫1.3‬ ‫2.0-‬ ‫8.2‬ ‫6.0‬ ‫8.2‬ ‫1.4‬ ‫2.0-‬ ‫8.3‬ ‫7.0‬ ‫9.1-‬ ‫2.4‬ ‫0.0‬ ‫4.5‬ ‫8.1‬ ‫8.3‬ ‫0.5‬ ‫4.0‬ ‫4.5‬ ‫8.1‬ ‫5.0‬ ‫2.3‬ ‫9.1‬ ‫1.5‬ ‫3.2‬ ‫6.3‬ ‫016,5‬ ‫767,5‬ ‫989,5‬ ‫013,6‬ ‫356,6‬ ‫199,6‬ ‫8.12‬ ‫0.6‬ ‫8.51‬ ‫1.22‬ ‫1.0‬ ‫1.22‬ ‫3.0‬ ‫0.6-‬ ‫2.6‬ ‫6.12‬ ‫8.5‬ ‫9.51‬ ‫6.62‬ ‫2.2‬ ‫4.42‬ ‫0.5‬ ‫5.3-‬ ‫5.8‬ ‫2.22‬ ‫2.5‬ ‫9.61‬ ‫9.22‬ ‫5.0‬ ‫4.22‬ ‫7.0‬ ‫7.4-‬ ‫4.5‬ ‫2.22‬ ‫8.5‬ ‫4.61‬ ‫2.22‬ ‫2.2‬ ‫0.02‬ ‫0.0‬ ‫7.3-‬ ‫6.3‬ ‫5.22‬ ‫7.6‬ ‫8.51‬ ‫0.72‬ ‫7.1‬ ‫3.52‬ ‫5.4‬ ‫0.5-‬ ‫4.9‬ ‫3.22‬ ‫8.8‬ ‫5.31‬ ‫3.33‬ ‫7.7‬ ‫6.52‬ ‫1.11‬ ‫1.1-‬ ‫1.21‬ ‫8.43‬ ‫1.4‬ ‫6.23‬ ‫0.4‬ ‫4.43‬ ‫6.3‬ ‫6.33‬ ‫5.4‬ ‫5.13‬ ‫4.4‬ ‫4.03‬ ‫7.3‬ ‫0.13‬ ‫5.3‬ ‫1.03‬ ‫2.4‬ ‫5.03‬ ‫3.4‬ ‫2.03‬ ‫2.5‬ ‫9.53‬ ‫1.21‬ ‫4.63‬ ‫5.43‬ ‫0.63‬ ‫6.63‬ ‫5.43‬ ‫8.63‬ ‫9.43‬ ‫8.43‬ ‫2.43‬ ‫2.53‬ ‫0.73‬ ‫5.0‬‫...‬ ‫...‬ ‫4.1‬‫...‬ ‫...‬ ‫9.3-‬ ‫...‬ ‫...‬ ‫8.2-‬ ‫...‬ ‫...‬ ‫5.2-‬ ‫3.49‬ ‫2.98‬ ‫0.6-‬ ‫5.401‬ ‫3.98‬ ‫5.3-‬ ‫3.111‬ ‫5.59‬ ‫7.4-‬ ‫0.001‬ ‫2.48‬ ‫7.3-‬ ‫0.79‬ ‫7.87‬ ‫0.5-‬ ‫5.001‬ ‫4.08‬ ‫1.1-‬ ‫5.101‬ ‫1.77‬ ‫0.5‬ ‫7.0‬ ‫0.0‬ ‫5.4‬ ‫1.11‬ ‫6.1‬ ‫3.3-‬ ‫7.3‬ ‫7.32‬ ‫8.02‬ ‫6.5‬ ‫8.02‬ ‫5.3‬ ‫2.8‬ ‫8.01‬ ‫4.01‬ ‫0.21‬ ‫6.21‬ ‫2.01‬ ‫8.1‬ ‫8.5‬ ‫4.5‬ ‫0.7‬ ‫4.11‬ ‫0.11‬ ‫576,1‬ ‫717,1‬ ‫167,1‬ ‫008,1‬ ‫247,2‬ ‫565,2‬ ‫474,3‬ ‫547,4‬ ‫4.6‬ ‫0.6‬ ‫8.7‬ ‫7.9‬ ‫2.33‬ ‫1.03‬ ‫1.83‬ ‫5.64‬ ‫572,2‬ ‫111,2‬ ‫230,3‬ ‫634,4‬ ‫5.11-‬ ‫اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻟﺴﻠﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻮاردات اﻟﺴﻠﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫3.2‬ ‫6.6-‬ ‫ﺻﺎﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدات اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ اﻟﻮاﺳﻊ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻮد‬ ‫7.1-‬ ‫3.8‬ ‫3.0‬ ‫4.0‬ ‫2.3-‬ ‫8.3-‬ ‫4.6-‬ ‫)اﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮات اﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ اﻟﻤﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪوﻻر اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ(‬ ‫8.1-‬ ‫0.1‬ ‫6.2‬ ‫4.42‬ ‫1.41‬ ‫7.6-‬ ‫4.4-‬ ‫2.61‬ ‫5.9‬ ‫6.4-‬ ‫)اﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮات اﻟﻤﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ اﻟﻮاﺳﻊ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻮد ﻓﻲ ﺑﺪاﻳﺔ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة(‬ ‫9.1‬ ‫1.8‬ ‫4.0‬ ‫5.2‬ ‫8.2‬ ‫6.7‬ ‫8.7‬ ‫3.0‬ ‫5.6‬ ‫1.8‬ ‫ﺑﻨﻮد اﻟﻤﺬآﺮة‬ ‫اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﻔﺮدي اﻻﺳﻤﻲ )ﺑﺎﻟﺪوﻻر‬ ‫اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ(‬ ‫إﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻴ ﺎت اﻟﺪوﻟﻴ ﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﺑﻠ ﺔ ﻟﻼﺳ ﺘﺨﺪام )ﻣﻠﻴ ﻮن‬ ‫079,1‬ ‫941,1‬ ‫376,1‬ ‫876‬ ‫704‬ ‫114‬ ‫595‬ ‫دوﻻر أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ( /2 /3‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴ ﺘﻮردات اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌ ﺔ ﻣ ﻦ اﻟﺴ ﻠﻊ واﻟﺨ ﺪﻣﺎت ﻏﻴ ﺮ‬ ‫8.4‬ ‫3.3‬ ‫6.4‬ ‫8.1‬ ‫1.1‬ ‫2.1‬ ‫9.1‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻹﻧﺘﺎج )أﺷﻬﺮ( /4‬ ‫آﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ اﻟﻮاﺳﻊ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﺪ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر‬ ‫6.52‬ ‫9.61‬ ‫0.52‬ ‫1.11‬ ‫6.6‬ ‫8.6‬ ‫6.01‬ ‫اﻷردﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺻﺎﻓﻲ اﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻴﺎت اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﺔ )ﻣﻠﻴﻮن دوﻻر أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ(‬ ‫364,1‬ ‫769‬ ‫805,1‬ ‫244‬ ‫435‬ ‫364‬ ‫216‬ ‫/2‬ ‫ﺳﻌﺮ ﺻﺮف اﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ اﻟﺪوﻻر أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ )ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫14.1‬ ‫14.1‬ ‫14.1‬ ‫14.1‬ ‫34.1‬ ‫34.1‬ ‫44.1‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺘﺮة(‬ ‫3.711‬ ‫6.611‬ ‫7.111‬ ‫9.301‬ ‫0.99‬ ‫3.601‬ ‫9.601‬ ‫ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺼﺮف اﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ اﻟﻔﻌﺎل )ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة(‬ ‫6.0‬ ‫3.4‬ ‫5.7‬ ‫0.5‬ ‫8.6-‬ ‫6.0-‬ ‫...‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺌﻮي )+: ارﺗﻔﺎع(‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺼﺎدر: اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ، وﺗﺨﻤﻴﻨﺎت وﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎت آﺎدر ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﻨﻘﺪ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ.‬ ‫1/ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻋﺪا وداﺋﻊ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻟﺪى اﻟﺠﻬﺎز اﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ، واﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺳﻨﺪات ﺑﺮﻳﺪي.‬ ‫2/ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺎت اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻗﺼﻴﺮة اﻷﺟﻞ، وﻋﺪا وداﺋﻊ اﻟﺒﻨﻮك اﻟﺘﺠﺎرﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﺪى اﻟﺒﻨﻚ اﻟﻤﺮآﺰي.‬ ‫3/ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدات اﻟﻤﺮهﻮﻧﺔ اﺳﺘﻨﺎدا ﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ إﻋﺎدة ﺟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺪﻳﻮن اﻟﺘﺠﺎرﻳﺔ ﻋﺎم 3991 واﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﺴﻨﻮي ﻟﻤﻘﺎﺿﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ.‬ ‫4/ﻣﺴﺘﻮردات اﻟﺴﻠﻊ واﻟﺨﺪﻣﺎت ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻹﻧﺘﺎج ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮردات ﻹﻋﺎدة اﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﻓﻲ 21 ﺷﻬﺮا ﻻﺣﻘﺎ.‬ ‫ً‬ ‫َ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫404,1‬ ‫4‬ ‫705,1‬ ‫965,1‬ ‫955,1‬ ‫575,1‬ ‫466,1‬ ‫066,1‬ ‫14.1‬ ‫14.1‬ ‫14.1‬ ‫14.1‬ ‫0.321‬ ‫9.2‬ ‫1.131‬ ‫6.6‬ ‫5.121‬ ‫3.7-‬ ‫5.111‬ ‫3.8-‬
  8. 8. ‫اﻷردن – ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة وﻣﻠﺤﻖ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫)61( هﻨﺎك اﺗﻔﺎق ﻋﺎم ﻓﻲ اﻷدﺑﻴﺎت اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ ﺑﺄن اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺿﺮوري ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻧﻤﻮ‬ ‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻋﺎدل وﻣﺴﺘﻘﺮ. آﻤﺎ أﺛﺒﺘﺖ اﻷدﺑﻴﺎت اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ أن ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ اﻟﻤﺮﺗﻔﻊ هﻮ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﺆذ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي وﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ، ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ذﻟﻚ ﻓﺈن ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻢ اﻟﻤﺮﺗﻔﻊ أﺛﺮ‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺒﻲ آﺒﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻔﻘﺮاء ﻷﻧﻪ ﻳﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺒﺌﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎ أآﺒﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ذوي اﻟﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺪود ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ ذوي‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻟﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺮﺗﻔﻊ. وﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺪول اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﺼﻐﻴﺮة، ﻓﺈن ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫واﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻳﻔﺮﺿﺎن ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺎ إﺿﺎﻓﻴﺎ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻲ اﺧﺘﻴﺎر اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ وﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎت أﺳﻌﺎر‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻟﺼﺮف اﻟﻤﻼﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺴﺠﻤﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻬﺪف اﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ.‬ ‫)71( إن ﻣﺎ واﺟﻬﻪ اﻷردن ﻣﻨﺬ اﻟﺜﻤﺎﻧﻴﻨﻴﺎت هﻮ ﻣﺜﺎل ﻋﻠﻰ أهﻤﻴﺔ اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﻟﻜﻠﻲ. ﻓﺄزﻣﺔ‬ ‫أﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﺼﺮف اﻟﺘﻲ وﻗﻌﺖ ﻋﺎم 9891، واﻟﺘﻲ أدت إﻟﻰ ﺗﺮاﺟﻊ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺻﺮف اﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر اﻷردﻧﻲ‬ ‫اﻹﺳﻤﻲ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺗﻘﺎرب 05% ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ اﻟﺪوﻻر أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ، آﺎن ﻟﻬﺎ أﺛﺮ ﺳﻠﺒﻲ ﺣﺎد ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻣﻌﻴﺸﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮاﻃﻦ اﻷردﻧﻲ، وﺧﺎﺻﺔ اﻟﻔﻘﻴﺮ. ﻓﻔﻲ ﻋﺎم 9891 وﺣﺪﻩ، اﻧﺨﻔﺾ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ 31 %، ﻓﻲ ﺣﻴﻦ زاد اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﻋﻦ 52%. ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺤﺴﻦ اﻟﻤﻠﺤﻮظ اﻟﺬي ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﻋﺎم‬ ‫2991، ﻓﺈن اﻷﺛﺮ اﻟﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻟﻼزﻣﺔ ﻗﺪ اﺳﺘﻤﺮ ﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ، ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺮاﺟﻊ ﻧﺼﻴﺐ اﻟﻔﺮد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻦ 732,2 دوﻻر أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎم 7891 إﻟﻰ 404,1 ﻋﺎم 3991. وﺗﻀﺎﻋﻒ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒً ﻟﻴﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ 02%. وأآﺜﺮ اﻵﺛﺎر ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ آﺎن ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻔﻘﺮ، ﺣﻴﺚ زادت اﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﻦ هﻢ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺧﻂ اﻟﻔﻘﺮ ﻣﻦ 3% ﺑﻴﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻲ 6891 و7891 إﻟﻰ 4.41% ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎم 2991.‬ ‫ً‬ ‫)81( وﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﻬﺬﻩ اﻷزﻣﺔ، ﻓﺈن اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﻟﻜﻠﻲ واﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر اﻷردﻧﻲ ﻟﻢ ﻳﻌﻮدا إﻟﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺗﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫إﻻ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻋﺪة ﺳﻨﻮات ﻣﻦ اﻧﺘﻬﺎﺋﻬﺎ. وﻗﺪ آﺎﻧﺖ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﺘﺜﺒﻴﺖ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ رﺑﻂ اﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر ﺑﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﻼت ﺗﻜﻮن وﺣﺪة ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﺴﺤﺐ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﻟﺪى ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﻨﻘﺪ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺪة‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ. ﺟﺪول)2-2(. ورﻏﻢ ذﻟﻚ ﻓﺈن اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ واﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻗﺪ ﺑﻘﻴﺎ إﻟﻰ ﺣﺪ ﻣﺎ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻤﻴﻦ ﺣﺴﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻻﻧﺤﺮاف اﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎري ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻔﻴﺪﻳﻦ. إن اﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر اﻷردﻧﻲ ﻗﺪ اﺣﺘﺎﺟﺖ إﻟﻰ وﻗﺖ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻌﻮد إﻟﻰ ﺳﺎﺑﻖ ﻋﻬﺪهﺎ، وﺗﺠﺬرت‬ ‫ﺟﺪول)2-2(: ﻣﺆﺷﺮات اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ آﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ رﺑﻂ اﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر ﺑﺎﻟﺪوﻻر أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ: اﻟﻨﻤﻮ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ:‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ: أزﻣﺔ ﺳﻌﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺪام‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار‬ ‫اﻟﺼﺮف‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﻦ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ 2991. وﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫)0002-3002(‬ ‫)2991-9991(‬ ‫)7891-1991(‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﻣﺪى اﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ‬ ‫1.4‬ ‫4.5‬ ‫3.0-‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫اﻻﻧﺤﺮاف‬ ‫8.0‬ ‫5.4‬ ‫8.7‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ اﻟﺮﺑﻂ اﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪة ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎري‬ ‫ﺗﺮاﺟﻊ ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺼﺮف اﻟﺴﻨﻮي‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺰون اﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻲ ﻟﺪى‬ ‫0.0‬ ‫5.0‬ ‫8.51‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫اﻻﻧﺤﺮاف‬ ‫اﻟﺒﻨﻚ اﻟﻤﺮآﺰي اﻷردﻧﻲ. وﻗﺪ‬ ‫0.0‬ ‫7.0‬ ‫3.22‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎري‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ‬ ‫وﺻﻠﺖ اﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻴﺎت اﻟﺮﺳﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻚ‬ ‫7.1‬ ‫3.3‬ ‫4.7‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫اﻻﻧﺤﺮاف‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺮآﺰي اﻷردﻧﻲ إﻟﻰ 9 أﺿﻌﺎف‬ ‫7.0‬ ‫7.1‬ ‫2.11‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎري‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺼﺪر: اﻹﺣﺼﺎءات اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﺔ، ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﻨﻘﺪ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ.‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﺬي آﺎﻧﺖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺪاﻳﺔ‬ ‫رﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺪوﻻر أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ، ووﺻﻠﺖ‬ ‫إﻟﻰ 7.4 ﻣﻠﻴﺎر دوﻻر أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻋﺎم 3002. وﻗﺪ أدت اﻟﺰﻳﺎدة ﻓﻲ اﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻴﺎت إﻟﻰ ﺗﺰاﻳﺪ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻻهﺘﻤﺎم ﺗﺪرﻳﺠﻴﺎ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﻟﻜﻠﻲ، ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻢ إﺗﺒﺎع ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻣﺘﺤﺮرة، اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي ﻧﺠﻢ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻪ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ رﻗﻢ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻻﻧﺨﻔﺎض أﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪة. وهﺬﻩ اﻟﺪرﺟﺔ اﻟﻤﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺧﻠﻘﺖ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻧﻤﻮ ﻣﺴﺘﺪام.‬ ‫5‬
  9. 9. ‫ﺑﺴﺎم ﻋﻮض‬ ‫اﻹﻃﺎر 2-1 أداء اﻟﺼﺎدرات ﻓﻲ 1002-2002‬ ‫ﻟﻘﺪ آﺎن ﻧﻤﻮ اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻣﻲ 1002 و 2002 ﻗﻮﻳﺎ ﺟﺪا – ﺿﻤﻦ ﺑﺤﻮاﻟﻲ 8.02% آﻞ ﺳﻨﺔ، ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫ً ً‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮ ﺳﻨﻮي 1% ﺧﻼل اﻟﺴﻨﻮات اﻟﺨﻤﺲ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ. وﻗﺪ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﻧﻤﻮ اﻟﺼﺎدرات ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺮاﺟﻊ ﺷﺮوط اﻟﺘﺒﺎدل اﻟﺘﺠﺎري ﻓﻲ 1002 –‬ ‫2002. ﺗﺤﺮﻳﺮ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة، ﻣﺼﺤﻮﺑﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺧﻮل اﻟﺘﻔﻀﻴﻠﻲ ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ، ﻳﺒﺪو أﻧﻪ آﺎن اﻟﻤﺤﺮك ﺧﻠﻒ هﺬا اﻟﺘﺤﺴﻦ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻔﺎﺟﺊ ﻓﻲ أداء اﻟﺼﺎدرات.‬ ‫وﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ وﺿﻊ اﻷﻃﺮ اﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ ﻋﺎم 6991 ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻣﻨﺤﺖ اﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪة اﻷﻣﻴﺮآﻴﺔ دﺧﻮل ﻣﻌﻔﻰ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﻴﻮد اﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ واﻟﺠﻤﺮآﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻊ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﺤﺪدة ﺑﺤﺪ أدﻧﻰ ﻣﺤﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮﻳﺎت اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ أو اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ أو اﻹﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻠﻴﺔ. وﻳﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫وﺿﻊ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ، واﻟﻤﺼﻨﻌﻴﻦ ﻓﻲ هﺬﻩ اﻟﻤﺼﺎﻧﻊ ﻳﺠﺐ أن ﻳﺤﺼﻠﻮا ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮاﻓﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺗﻬﻢ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻟﺠﻨﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻠﻪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻠﻤﻮس، ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﻮن 53% ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ اﻟﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻓﻲ إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻞ، أو ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﺆهﻠﺔ أردﻧﻴﺔ، أو اﻟﻀﻔﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ وﻗﻄﺎع ﻏﺰة. وﻣﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ 53% هﺬﻩ، ﻳﺠﺐ أن ﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﺎ ﻻ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ 7.11% ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﺆهﻠﺔ أردﻧﻴﺔ، وﻣﺎ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻻ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ 8% ﻓﻲ اﻷردن )7% ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ( واﻟﻤﺘﺒﻘﻲ 3.51% ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﺆهﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻞ أو اﻟﻀﻔﺔ اﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ /‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع ﻏﺰة، أو ﻳﺠﺐ أن ﻳﺴﺎهﻢ اﻟﻤﺼﻨﻌﻮن اﻷردﻧﻴﻮن واﻹﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻠﻴﻮن ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ 02% ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﻧﺘﺎج. وﻗﺪ آﺎﻧﺖ‬ ‫اﻷﻗﻤﺸﺔ واﻷﻟﺒﺴﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ اﻟﻤﺮآﺰي ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎط ﻓﻲ هﺬﻩ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ، وذﻟﻚ ﻷن هﺬﻩ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﺗﺘﻌﺮض ﻟﻀﺮاﺋﺐ ﺟﻤﺮآﻴﺔ‬ ‫أﻣﻴﺮآﻴﺔ ﺗﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ 22% و ﻣﺼﻔﺎة أﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﺼﺺ اﻟﻤﺤﺪدة ﺿﻤﻦ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ اﻟﺨﻴﻮط واﻷﻧﺴﺠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ. رﻏﻢ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻃﻠﺐ، ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ آﺎﻧﺖ اﺑﺘﺪاﺋﻴﺎ ﺑﻄﻴﺌﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺄﺳﻴﺲ وﺑﺪء اﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎت. ﻓﻔﻲ ﺣﻴﻦ ﺗﻢ اﻻﺗﻔﺎق ﻋﻠﻰ إﻃﺎر اﻟﻌﻤﻞ اﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻋﺎم 6991. ﻓﺈن أول ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ أﻧﺸﺌﺖ آﺎن ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎم 8991. وﻣﻨﺬ ذﻟﻚ اﻟﺤﻴﻦ، ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﻢ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺗﺴﻌﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﺆهﻠﺔ،‬ ‫وﻃﺎﻟﺒﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺼﺎﻧﻊ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻲ هﺬﻩ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻗﺪ ﺑﺪأت ﻣﺆﺧﺮا ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﺎﻹﻧﺘﺎج اﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ. وﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ اﻟﻤﻮاﻓﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ إﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺘﻴﻦ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫إﺿﺎﻓﻴﺘﻴﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺪى اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺰﻳﺮان 3002.‬ ‫وﻗﺪ ﺳﺎﻋﺪت اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻨﻮﻳﻊ اﻟﺼﺎدرات وﺳﺎهﻤﺖ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻤﻮ اﻟﺼﺎدرات. وﺧﻼل اﻟﺴﻨﻮات اﻟﺨﻤﺲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺎﺿﻴﺔ، ﺗﺤﻮﻟﺖ اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﻴﺪا ﻋﻦ اﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎد ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻦ ﻟﺼﺎﻟﺢ اﻷﻗﻤﺸﺔ واﻷﻟﺒﺴﺔ واﻷﺣﺬﻳﺔ واﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎت اﻟﺼﻴﺪﻻﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫واﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﺨﻔﻴﻔﺔ. واﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻋﺎم 1002 و 2002 هﻮ أﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﻬﺬﻩ اﻟﺴﻠﻊ،‬ ‫ً‬ ‫واﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪة اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻷﺳﺮع ﻧﻤﻮا ﻟﻬﺬا اﻟﻨﻮع ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﻠﻊ هﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ. وﻗﺪ ﻗﻔﺰت ﺻﺎدرات اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ إﺗﻤﺎم ﻋﺪد هﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺮآﺎت اﻟﺪﺧﻮل وﺑﺪء اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻲ 0002 – 1002. وﺗﺸﻴﺮ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺮﺳﻤﻴﺔ أن ﺻﺎدرات‬ ‫أآﺒﺮ ﺳﺒﻌﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﺆهﻠﺔ ﻗﺪ ارﺗﻔﻌﺖ ﻣﻦ 4.2 ﻣﻠﻴﻮن دوﻻر أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﻋﺎم 9991 إﻟﻰ 283 ﻣﻠﻴﻮن دوﻻر أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﻋﺎم 2002.‬ ‫وﻗﺪ ﺧﻠﻘﺖ هﺬﻩ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺴﺒﻌﺔ 62 أﻟﻒ وﻇﻴﻔﺔ.‬ ‫إن اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﺤﺮة اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ﻗﺪ زادت ﻣﻦ ﻣﺨﺎوف أن اﻟﺸﺮآﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ ﺳﻮف ﺗﺨﺴﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺤﻤﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ، وﻟﻜﻦ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﺮوﻗﺎت آﺒﻴﺮة ﺑﻴﻦ ﺣﺮﻳﺔ اﻟﺪﺧﻮل اﻟﻤﻤﻨﻮﺣﺔ ﺿﻤﻦ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﺤﺮة اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ وﺗﻠﻚ ﺿﻤﻦ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ "أوﻻ" اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﺤﺮة اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ هﻮ اﺗﻔﺎق ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻲ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﺗﻠﻘﻰ اﻟﺮﺳﻮم اﻟﺠﻤﺮآﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎت ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫01 ﺳﻨﻮات. واﻟﺴﻠﻊ اﻟﻤﺼﺪرة ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ. ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺁﺧﺮ، ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺈﻋﻔﺎء ﺟﻤﺮآﻲ وآﻤﻲ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ، ﺛﺎﻧﻴً، إن ﻗﻮاﻋﺪ اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄ ﺑﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺠﻴﻦ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺟﺬرﻳﺎ. ﻓﻔﻲ ﻇﻞ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﺤﺮة اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ، ﻓﺈن اﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻳﺠﺐ أن ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ 53% ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺣﺼﺎﻓﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻷردن‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺄهﻞ ﻟﺤﺮﻳﺔ اﻟﺪﺧﻮل اﻟﻤﻌﻔﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ 7.11% ﺿﻤﻦ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ. وﺗﻮﻟﻴﻔﺔ ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎت دﺧﻮل اﻟﻤﻌﻔﻰ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﻲ واﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ اﻷﺷﺪ )اﻷﻋﻠﻰ( ﺗﻘﺘﺮح أن اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ ﺳﻮف ﺗﺤﺎﻓﻆ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺎذﺑﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ.‬ ‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻣﻮﺟﻪ أآﺜﺮ ﻧﺤﻮ اﻟﺼﺎدرات‬ ‫)91( ﻟﻌﻞ أآﺜﺮ اﻷدﻟﺔ وﺿﻮﺣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ هﻮ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻟﺴﻠﻌﻴﺔ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺴﻨﺘﻴﻦ واﻟﻨﺼﻒ اﻷﺧﻴﺮﺗﻴﻦ، ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺮاﺟﻌﺖ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﻴﺔ اﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎت،‬ ‫ﻣﺜﻴﺮة اﻟﺘﺴﺎؤﻻت ﺣﻮل ﺗﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ ﻗﻄﺎع اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ، إﻻ أﻧﻪ، وﺑﺪءا ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺼﻒ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎم‬ ‫ً‬ ‫0002، ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﺖ اﻟﺼﺎدرات ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔ، وﺧﺎﺻﺔ اﻟﺼﺎدرات ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﻤﻼﺑﺲ واﻷﻗﻤﺸﺔ‬ ‫واﻷدوﻳﺔ وﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﻮاد اﻟﺰراﻋﻴﺔ. ﻓﻲ ﺣﻴﻦ أن ﺟﺰءا آﺒﻴﺮا ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻟﻤﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻟﻠﺼﺎدرات ﻳﻌﻮد إﻟﻰ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ أﺗﺎﺣﺖ ﺣﺮﻳﺔ دﺧﻮل اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎت اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ دون‬ ‫ﺣﺼﺺ أو ﻗﻴﻮد ﺟﻤﺮآﻴﺔ. إﻃﺎر)2-1(. أﻣﺎ اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ اﻷﺧﺮى، ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﺖ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺳﺮﻳﻊ،‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫وﻟﻮ ﺑﻤﻌﺪل أﺑﻄﺄ ﻗﻠﻴﻼ. إﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ذﻟﻚ، ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﺖ اﻟﺮﻗﻌﺔ اﻟﺠﻐﺮاﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﺎدرات اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫آﺒﻴﺮ، ﺣﻴﺚ ﺑﻠﻐﺖ اﻟﺼﺎدرات إﻟﻰ أﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻋﺸﺮة أﺿﻌﺎف ﻣﺎ آﺎﻧﺖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻗﺒﻞ أرﺑﻌﺔ ﺳﻨﻮات. وﺑﺸﻜﻞ‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫ﻋﺎم، ﻓﺈن اﻟﺼﺎدرات ﻗﺪ ﻧﻤﺖ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺳﻨﻮي ﺑﻠﻎ 02% ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة )1002-2002(. وهﺬا ﺑﺪورﻩ‬ ‫أدى إﻟﻰ زﻳﺎدة ﺣﺼﺔ ﺻﺎدرات اﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻣﻦ 22% ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﺎم‬ ‫3991 إﻟﻰ 03% ﻋﺎم 2002.‬ ‫6‬
  10. 10. ‫اﻷردن – ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة وﻣﻠﺤﻖ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﺟﺪول)2-3(: ﻧﻤﻮ اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻟﺴﻠﻌﻴﺔ، 3991-3002‬ ‫)02( إن اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻟﺬي ﺷﻬﺪﺗﻪ اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻟﺴﻠﻌﻴﺔ ﻳﻨﺎﻗﺾ‬ ‫اﻟﻀﻌﻒ اﻟﺬي أﺻﺎب اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺴﻨﻮات‬ ‫اﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ اﻷﺧﻴﺮة. ﻓﻘﺪ ﻧﻤﺖ اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫7.5% ﺧﻼل ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة، اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ رﺋﻴﺲ‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺒﺎﻃﺆ اﻟﺬي ﺷﻬﺪﺗﻪ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدات اﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة‬ ‫)1002-2002(. ﻟﺬا، ﻓﻘﺪ ازدادت ﺣﺼﺔ اﻟﺼﺎدرات‬ ‫اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ 12% ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﻌﺎم‬ ‫3991. وﺧﻼل ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة، ﺣﻘﻖ اﻷردن أﺳﺮع ﻣﻌﺪل ﻧﻤﻮ ﻟﻠﺼﺎدرات ﺑﺎﻟﺪوﻻر أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﺑﻴﻦ دول‬ ‫اﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ وﺷﻤﺎل إﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ رﻏﻢ اﻷﺛﺮ اﻟﺴﻠﺒﻲ اﻟﺬي ﺧﻠﻔﺘﻪ ﺣﺮب اﻟﻌﺮاق. ﺟﺪول)2-3(.‬ ‫)ﻣﻌﺪﻻت اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻟﺘﺮاآﻤﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪوﻻر اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ(‬ ‫1002-3002‬ ‫3991-0002‬ ‫6.61‬ ‫2.6‬ ‫اﻷردن‬ ‫9.8‬ ‫7.7‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮ‬ ‫5.91‬ ‫5.4‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻨﺎن‬ ‫4.5‬ ‫8.5‬ ‫ﺳﻮرﻳﺎ‬ ‫2.5‬ ‫8.9‬ ‫اﻟﺠﺰاﺋﺮ‬ ‫3.11‬ ‫5.5‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻧﺲ‬ ‫4.6‬ ‫5.4‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻐﺮب‬ ‫اﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ وﺷﻤﺎل إﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‬ ‫2.4‬ ‫6.9‬ ‫)ﻋﺪا اﻷردن(‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺼﺪر: ﻗﺎﻋﺪة ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﺁﻓﺎق اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ، ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﻨﻘﺪ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ.‬ ‫)12( إن اﻻزدهﺎر اﻟﺬي ﺷﻬﺪﻩ ﻗﻄﺎع اﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻷردن هﻮ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺰاﻳﺪ وﺗﻴﺮة اﻧﺪﻣﺎج اﻷردن ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ. أﺣﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ هﺬا اﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ هﻮ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﺒﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ واﻟﺬي ﻳﻀﻊ‬ ‫إﺣﺼﺎءات رﻗﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﺪرﺟﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﺼﺺ ﻓﻲ اﻹﻧﺘﺎج اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ، أو، ﺑﻤﻨﻈﻮر أوﺳﻊ، درﺟﺔ اﻟﺮواﺑﻂ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺠﺎرﻳﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ دوﻟﺔ ﻣﺎ وﺑﻘﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ. وﻳﻘﻴﺲ هﺬا اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻤﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺑﺜﻼث ﺧﺎﻧﺎت ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ اﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎري اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ اﺳﺘﻨﺎدا إﻟﻰ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻓﺮة ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﻋﺪة اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺠﺎرﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ اﻷﻣﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪة. وﻳﺒﻴﻦ ﺷﻜﻞ )2-3( أﺛﺮ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة‬ ‫اﻟﺒﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻸردن وﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﺴﺒﻌﺔ اﻟﻜﺒﺎر وﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﺸﺮق واﻷوﺳﻂ وﺷﻤﺎل‬ ‫إﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﻋﺪا اﻷردن. وﻳﺘﺒﻴﻦ ﺑﻮﺿﻮح ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﺰاﻳﺪ اﻧﺪﻣﺎج اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻨﻮات اﻟﻌﺸﺮة اﻷﺧﻴﺮة ﺣﻴﺚ ازداد هﺬا اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ 01 ﻧﻘﺎط ﻣﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻴﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ 33%، ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺗﺮآﺰ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﻴﺔ اﻟﺰﻳﺎدة ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ اﻵﻻت وﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﻨﻘﻞ، واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﻔﺘﺎح ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ اﻷردن. رﻏﻢ ذﻟﻚ، ﻓﻤﻦ اﻟﻮاﺿﺢ أن هﻨﺎك إﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ آﺒﻴﺮة ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ أآﺒﺮ ﻟﻸردن، وذﻟﻚ ﻷن ﻣﺆﺷﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﺒﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪول اﻟﺴﺒﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻜﺒﺎر ﻗﺪ اﺳﺘﻘﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ 08% ﺧﻼل اﻟﻌﻘﺪ‬ ‫اﻷﺧﻴﺮ.‬ ‫)22( وﻟﻌﻞ إﺣﺪى اﻟﻨﻘﺎط ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﻄﻤﺌﻨﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎت آﺎﻧﺖ ﻏﻴﺎب ﺗﺤﺴﻦ‬ ‫اﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ. وﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ أﻋﺪهﺎ اﻟﺒﻨﻚ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻣﻲ 4991 و1002، ﻓﺈن ﻣﻌﻈﻢ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ‬ ‫اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎت ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﻳﻜﻮن ﻗﺪ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﺗﻮﺳﻊ رأس اﻟﻤﺎل ﺑﺸﻘﻴﻪ اﻟﺒﺸﺮي‬ ‫واﻟﻤﺎدي. وهﺬا ﻳﻌﻨﻲ أن اﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻹﻧﺘﺎج – اﻟﺒﻮاﻗﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻤﻮذج ﺳﻮﻟﻮ ﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ-‬ ‫ﻟﻢ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ إﻻ زﻳﺎدة ﺿﺌﻴﻠﺔ ﺟﺪا. وﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ، ﻓﺈن أرﻗﺎم اﻟﻨﺼﻒ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎت ﺗﺒﻴﻦ ﻋﺪم‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ازدﻳﺎد إﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ اﻹﻧﺘﺎج، وهﻮ اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي أﺛﺎر اﻟﺘﺴﺎؤﻻت ﺣﻮل ﺗﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ.‬ ‫ﺟﺪول)2-4(.‬ ‫ﺟﺪول)2-4(: ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮات اﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ اﻹﻧﺘﺎج، 1891-2002‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﻌﺪﻻت اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ‬ ‫رأس‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺘﺮة‬ ‫اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫رأس‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺸﺮي‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺎهﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﻮة‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫رأس اﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫اﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫رأس‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺸﺮي‬ ‫اﻟﻘﻮة‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫اﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫6.0-‬ ‫2.1‬ ‫1.3‬ ‫7.2‬ ‫1.5‬ ‫4.9‬ ‫1.6‬ ‫4.6‬ ‫1891-58‬ ‫1.6-‬ ‫1.1‬ ‫2.1‬ ‫8.2‬ ‫8.4‬ ‫7.3‬ ‫5.6‬ ‫9.0-‬ ‫6891-09‬ ‫0.2‬ ‫7.1‬ ‫8.1‬ ‫6.1‬ ‫2.7‬ ‫4.5‬ ‫6.3‬ ‫0.7‬ ‫1991-59‬ ‫0.0‬ ‫9.0‬ ‫0.1‬ ‫2.1‬ ‫1.4‬ ‫9.2‬ ‫8.2‬ ‫1.3‬ ‫6991-00‬ ‫7.1‬ ‫9.0‬ ‫8.0‬ ‫2.1‬ ‫1.4‬ ‫6.2‬ ‫6.2‬ ‫6.4‬ ‫1002-20‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺪر ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻨﻤﻮ واﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ رأس اﻟﻤﺎل هﻮ ﻗﺎﻋﺪة ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻹﺣﺼﺎءات اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺸﻮر ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﻨﻘﺪ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ. أﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﺨﺰون رأس اﻟﻤﺎل، ﻓﻤﺸﺘﻘﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻓﺘﺮاض اﺳﺘﻬﻼك ﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ اﻹﻧﺘﺎج ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ 4%. أﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﻣﺸﺎرآﺔ اﻟﻘﻮة‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ، ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﻨﺸﻮرة ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﻋﺪة ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﻣﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺸﻮرة ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﺒﻨﻚ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ. وﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت رأس اﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺸﺮي، ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﺸﺘﻘﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻨﺎت ﻋﻦ اﻷردن ﻣﻨﺸﻮرة ﻓﻲ دراﺳﺔ ‪ Barro‬و ‪ .(2000) Lee‬وﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ اﺳﺘﻘﺮاء اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮة 1002-‬ ‫2002 ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻧﻔﺲ ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﻨﻤﻮ، آﻤﺎ هﻮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة 6991-0002.‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺼﺪر: اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ، ‪ Barro‬و ‪ ،(2000) Lee‬ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻨﺎت آﺎدر اﻟﺼﻨﺪوق.‬ ‫7‬
  11. 11. ‫ﺑﺴﺎم ﻋﻮض‬ ‫)32( وﻓﻲ ﻧﺴﺨﺔ ﻣﺤﺪﺛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ، ﻳﺘﺒﻴﻦ ﺣﺪوث اﻧﺘﻌﺎش ﻣﻌﻘﻮل ﻓﻲ اﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻲ 1002‬ ‫و2002. وﻳﺪرج ﺟﺪول)2-4( اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺻﻞ إﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﺪث ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮة‬ ‫)1891-(2002، وذﻟﻚ اﺳﺘﻨﺎدً إﻟﻰ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ وﻧﻔﺲ ﺣﺼﺺ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻹﻧﺘﺎج اﻟﺘﻲ اﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫دراﺳﺔ ‪ Mansur‬و‪ Maciejewski‬ﻋﺎم 6991. وﺗﺒﻴﻦ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ أﻧﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺣﻴﻦ أن اﻟﻨﺼﻒ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎت ﻟﻢ ﻳﺸﻬﺪ أي ﻧﻤﻮ ﻓﻲ اﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ، ﻓﺈن ذﻟﻚ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة )1002-2002(، ﺣﻴﺚ‬ ‫آﺎن ازدﻳﺎد اﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻷآﺒﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺎهﻢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﻟﻜﻠﻲ. وﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻞ أن هﺬا ﻗﺪ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ازدﻳﺎد إﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻗﻄﺎع اﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ، وﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻋﺰزت‬ ‫اﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد. أآﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ذﻟﻚ، ﺗﺠﺪر اﻹﺷﺎرة إﻟﻰ أن اﻟﻔﺘﺮة )1002-2002( ﻗﺪ ﺷﻬﺪت‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ اﻷآﺒﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻌﻘﺪﻳﻦ اﻷﺧﻴﺮﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء أواﺋﻞ اﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎت.‬ ‫)42( ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎم، ﻓﺈن ﺗﻌﺰﻳﺰ اﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر اﻷردﻧﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺼﻒ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎت وارﺗﻔﺎع أداء اﻟﻘﻄﺎع‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮي ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻨﺘﻴﻦ اﻷﺧﻴﺮﺗﻴﻦ وﺗﺤﺴﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ آﻠﻬﺎ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺗﺸﻴﺮ إﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﺬي ﺷﻬﺪﻩ هﻴﻜﻞ‬ ‫اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد. واﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ أدت إﻟﻰ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ هﺬا اﻟﺘﺤﻮل هﻲ اﻟﻤﻮﺿﻮع اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ.‬ ‫ج. ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺜﺒﻴﺖ واﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫)52( ﻟﻘﺪ ﺗﻨﺎول اﻟﺒﻨﺪ )ب( دﻻﺋﻞ اﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ اﻟﺬي اﺻﺒﺢ واﺿﺤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻨﺘﻴﻦ اﻷﺧﻴﺮﺗﻴﻦ. واﺳﺘﻨﺎدا إﻟﻰ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ً‬ ‫هﺬﻩ اﻟﺪﻻﺋﻞ، ﻳﺮﺑﻂ هﺬا اﻟﺒﻨﺪ ﺟﺬور اﻟﺘﺤﻮل ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺒﻨﺘﻬﺎ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎت. وﻓﻲ ﺣﻴﻦ‬ ‫أن اﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﺨﺎص وﻣﻮاردﻩ ﻗﺪ آﺎﻧﺖ ﺑﻼ ﺷﻚ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺿﺮورﻳﺔ، ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺷﺄن اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺒﻨﺘﻬﺎ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ.‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫)62( ﻟﻘﺪ آﺎﻧﺖ اﻷوﻟﻮﻳﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ أزﻣﺔ ﻋﺎم 9891 ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار وﺗﻌﺰﻳﺰ اﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر اﻷردﻧﻲ. وﻗﺪ ﺗﻔﺎﻗﻤﺖ اﻟﺼﻌﻮﺑﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ واﺟﻬﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ إدارة‬ ‫اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻣﻊ اﻧﻬﻴﺎر ﺛﺎﻟﺚ أآﺒﺮ ﺑﻨﻚ ﻓﻲ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺁب ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎم 9891. وﻗﺪ ﺗﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﻋﺐء اﻟﺪﻳﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ، ووﺻﻞ إﻟﻰ ﺿﻌﻒ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﺎم 0991. إﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ذﻟﻚ، ﻓﻘﺪ آﺎن ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎت اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ أن ﺗﺴﺘﺠﻴﺐ ﻟﻠﺼﺪﻣﺎت اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻴﺔ، ﻣﺜﻞ ﺣﺮب اﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ وﻋﻮدة اﻟﻤﻐﺘﺮﺑﻴﻦ اﻷردﻧﻴﻴﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﺗﻢ إﺧﺮاﺟﻬﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻲ 1991 و2991.‬ ‫)72( وﻓﻲ إﻃﺎر ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺒﻲ اﻻﺳﺘﻌﺪاد اﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻧﻲ اﻟﻤﻮ ّﻌﻴﻦ ﻣﻊ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﻨﻘﺪ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ ﻋﺎﻣﻲ 9891 و2991، ﻓﻘﺪ‬ ‫ﻗ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺖ اﻟﺴﻴﻄﺮة ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔ. وﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ، ﻓﻘﺪ اﺳﺘﻘﺮ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺻﺮف اﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر أﻣﺎم اﻟﺪوﻻر‬ ‫أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ وﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﺴﺤﺐ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﺎم 2991 . وﻗﺪ ﺳﺎر اﻟﺒﻨﻚ اﻟﻤﺮآﺰي اﻷردﻧﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻄﻰ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ، وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺮض اﻟﺴﻴﻄﺮة اﻟﺤﺼﻴﻔﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺎﺋﺾ اﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ. وﻗﺪ‬ ‫آﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﻨﺪ إﻟﻰ اﻷدوات اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة واﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ، ﺛﻢ ﺗﺤﻮل اﻟﺒﻨﻚ اﻟﻤﺮآﺰي‬ ‫اﻷردﻧﻲ ﻧﺤﻮ اﻷدوات ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ، ﻣﺜﻞ ﻃﺮح ﺷﻬﺎدات اﻹﻳﺪاع ﻋﺎم 3991،‬ ‫واﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ اﻟﺘﺪرﻳﺠﻲ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ، وﺗﺤﺮﻳﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻟﺤﺴﺎب اﻟﺠﺎري وﺣﺴﺎب رأس اﻟﻤﺎل.‬ ‫ورﻏﻢ ذﻟﻚ، ﻓﺈن اﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر اﻷردﻧﻲ ﻗﺪ اﺳﺘﻌﻴﺪت ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻗﺮار اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺮﺑﻂ اﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر ﺑﺎﻟﺪوﻻر‬ ‫أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﻦ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎم 5991. وﻗﺪ وﻓﺮ اﻟﺮﺑﻂ إﻃﺎرا ﺷﻔﺎﻓﺎ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ، اﻟﺘﻲ أدت‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﺑﺪورهﺎ إﻟﻰ إﻋﺎدة ﺑﻨﺎء اﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻼت اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺪرﻳﺞ وﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ أﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﻔﻮاﺋﺪ. وﻗﺪ اﻧﺨﻔﺾ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ أﻳﻀﺎ ﻟﻴﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎت اﻟﺪول اﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ وﺗﻢ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻟﺴﻌﺮي ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﺎم ﺑﺤﻠﻮل‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻋﺎم 9991.‬ ‫8‬
  12. 12. ‫اﻷردن – ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة وﻣﻠﺤﻖ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫)82( رﻏﻢ ذﻟﻚ ﻓﺈن اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﺗﻜﻮن ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪرﺟﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺪﻋﻤﻬﺎ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎت ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺳﻠﻴﻤﺔ.‬ ‫وﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻠﺨﻴﺺ اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎت -واﻟﺘﻲ هﻲ ﻣﺤﻮر ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ- ﻋﻠﻰ أﻧﻬﺎ هﺪﻓﺖ إﻟﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻌﺐء اﻟﺜﻘﻴﻞ ﻟﻠﺪﻳﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻣﺰﻳﺞ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ وإﻋﻔﺎءات اﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ اﻟﺜﻨﺎﺋﻲ، وآﺠﺰء ﻣﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﻤﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ‬ ‫ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﻨﻘﺪ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺒﻴﻦ اﻟﻤﺬآﻮرﻳﻦ ﺁﻧﻔﺎ، ﻓﻘﺪ ﺧﻔﻀﺖ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﺰاﻳﺪ اﻋﺘﻤﺎدهﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻻﻗﺘﺮاض اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﻨﻚ اﻟﻤﺮآﺰي اﻷردﻧﻲ. وهﻮ اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي ﻣﻨﻌﻪ ﻣﺆﺧﺮا ﻗﺎﻧﻮن إدارة اﻟﺪﻳﻦ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎم ﻟﻌﺎم 1002. وﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ، ﻓﻘﺪ ﻃﻮرت وزارة اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺳﻮﻗﺎ ﻷدوات اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻬﺎ،‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي أﺳﻬﻢ ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻴﻄﺮة ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ اﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ. ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ذﻟﻚ، ﻓﻘﺪ ﻧﺠﺤﺖ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻓﻲ إﻋﺎدة ﺟﺪوﻟﺔ 6 ﻗﺮوض ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎدي ﺑﺎرﻳﺲ ﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺗﺴﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﺐء اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﺜﻘﻴﻞ، ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻤﺖ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺗﻤﻮز ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎم 2002، وهﺬﻩ آﺎﻧﺖ ﺟﺪوﻟﺔ ﻧﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻏﻄﺖ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺪﻳﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﻘﺔ ﻟﻌﺎم 7002.‬ ‫)92( وﻗﺪ ﺗﻌﺮﺿﺖ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ إﻟﻰ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﺻﻌﺐ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة اﻟﻄﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﻟﻤﺮض‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻠﻚ اﻟﺤﺴﻴﻦ ووﻓﺎﺗﻪ ﻓﻲ أواﺋﻞ ﻋﺎم 9991. وﻗﺪ أدت ﺣﺎﻻت ﻋﺪم اﻟﺘﻴﻘﻦ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺻﺎﺣﺒﺖ اﻟﻤﺮض‬ ‫واﻟﻮﻓﺎة إﻟﻰ ﺗﺮاﺟﻊ اﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر اﻷردﻧﻲ، وﺣﺪوث ﺗﺤﻮل ﻧﺤﻮ ﺗﻔﻀﻴﻞ اﻟﻮداﺋﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻼت اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ.‬ ‫وﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ، ﻓﻘﺪ اﻧﺨﻔﻀﺖ اﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻴﺎت اﻟﺒﻨﻚ اﻟﻤﺮآﺰي ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻼت اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺑﻤﻘﺪار اﻟﻨﺼﻒ ﻟﺘﺼﻞ‬ ‫إﻟﻰ ﻣﻠﻴﺎر دوﻻر أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﻓﻲ أواﺋﻞ 9991، اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي أﺛﺎر اﻟﺘﺴﺎؤﻻت ﺣﻮل اﺳﺘﻘﺮار ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺳﻌﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﺮف، أي ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ رﺑﻂ اﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎر ﺑﺎﻟﺪوﻻر أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ. وﻗﺪ اﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺖ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﺑﺪﻋﻢ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﻨﻘﺪ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﺗﻮﻗﻴﻊ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺒﺎت ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻌﺪاد اﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻧﻲ، ﺣﻴﺚ ﺿﺎﻋﻒ اﻟﺒﻨﻚ اﻟﻤﺮآﺰي‬ ‫أﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪة ﻗﺼﻴﺮة اﻷﺟﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮﺑﻂ. أﻣﺎ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ، ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﻢ ﺿﺒﻄﻬﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ آﺒﻴﺮ،‬ ‫اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي أدى إﻟﻰ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﻣﻮازﻧﺔ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﺮآﺰﻳﺔ إﻟﻰ 5.3 % ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﺎم‬ ‫9991 ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ 6% ﻋﺎم 8991. ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎم، ﻓﺈن اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺒﻨﺘﻬﺎ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻗﺪ ﻣﻨﻌﺖ‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫ﺣﺪوث أزﻣﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪة وأﻋﺎدت اﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻳﻨﺎر اﻷردﻧﻲ ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔ.‬ ‫ﺗﺤﺮﻳﺮ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة‬ ‫)03( أدى ﺗﺤﺮﻳﺮ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة إﻟﻰ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ اﻧﺪﻣﺎج أآﺒﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ وﻓﻲ ﺧﻄﻮات ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ، ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﻢ إﻟﻐﺎء اﻟﻘﻴﻮد اﻟﺠﻤﺮآﻴﺔ اﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮردات أو ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻀﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى إﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ أو‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻌﺪد، اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي أدى إﻟﻰ اﻧﻔﺘﺎح اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻷردﻧﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺴﻮق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ. وﻓﻲ ذات اﻟﻮﻗﺖ، ﻗﺎﻣﺖ‬ ‫اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺘﻮﻗﻴﻊ ﻋﺪة اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎت ﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة ﻣﻊ أﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ واﻹﺗﺤﺎد اﻷوروﺑﻲ، اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي وﻓﺮ‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺪرﻳﻦ دﺧﻮﻻ ﺗﻔﻀﻴﻠﻴً ﻷآﺒﺮ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ. وﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎم، ﻓﻘﺪ أدت هﺬﻩ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎت إﻟﻰ ﺑﺮوز‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫أآﺜﺮ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدات اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻧﻔﺘﺎﺣﺎ وﺗﺼﺪﻳﺮا.‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ً‬ ‫)13( إن اﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎت إﺣﻼل اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮردات ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺎﺿﻲ ﻣﺜﻴﺮة ﻟﻼهﺘﻤﺎم، ﻓﺤﺘﻰ أواﺧﺮ اﻟﺜﻤﺎﻧﻴﻨﻴﺎت،‬ ‫آﺎن اﻷردن ﻳﺘﺒﻨﻰ ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﻌﻘﺪ وﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ، وﺻﻞ ﻓﻴﻪ اﻟﺤﺪ اﻻﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ 813%، ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﺮﺟﺢ ﺑﻠﻎ 91%. وﻗﺪ ﺗﻀﻤﻦ ﺟﺪول اﻟﺘﻌﺮﻓﺔ اﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎءات ﺷﻜﻠﺖ 15% ﻣﻦ اﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮردات. ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ذﻟﻚ، ﻓﺈن ﺣﻮاﻟﻲ 04% ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮردات آﺎﻧﺖ ﺧﺎﺿﻌﺔ ﻟﻘﻴﻮد آﻤﻴﺔ. وﻗﺪ‬ ‫اﺗﺴﻢ ﺟﺪول اﻟﺘﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺑﺪرﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ، ﺣﻴﺚ ﺑﻠﻎ اﻻﻧﺤﺮاف اﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎري 1.62%. أﻣﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬ ‫اﻟﺤﺎﺿﺮ، ﻓﺈن ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﺘﻌﺮﻓﺔ هﻮ ﻧﻈﺎم ﺑﺴﻴﻂ. وﻗﺪ ﺑﻠﻎ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﻤﺮﺟﺢ ﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﺮﻓﺔ 31%، آﻤﺎ ﺑﻠﻎ‬ ‫اﻟﺤﺪ اﻷﻗﺼﻰ 03% واﻻﻧﺤﺮاف اﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎري 7.51%. أﻣﺎ اﻟﻘﻴﻮد ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﺠﻤﺮآﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮردات،‬ ‫ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﻘﺼﻮرة ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﻘﻮق اﻣﺘﻴﺎز اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎت اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ، واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎم 8002. وﺗﺸﻜﻞ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎءات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻌﺮﻓﺔ اﻟﺠﻤﺮآﻴﺔ أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ 51% ﻣﻦ إﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮردات. واﻷآﺜﺮ أهﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ذﻟﻚ،‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺪ اﻧﻀﻢ اﻷردن إﻟﻰ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﺎم 2002 ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰام ﺑﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ اﻟﻘﻴﻮد اﻟﺠﻤﺮآﻴﺔ وﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺠﻤﺮآﻴﺔ ﺗﺪرﻳﺠﻴً. وﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺧﺎص، ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺪل ﺗﻌﺮﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ 02% ﺑﺤﻠﻮل ﻋﺎم 0102‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎت ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ.‬ ‫9‬
  13. 13. ‫ﺑﺴﺎم ﻋﻮض‬ ‫)23( ﻟﻘﺪ ﺗﺒﻌﺖ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎت ﺗﺤﺮﻳﺮ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة ﻣﺘﻌﺪدة اﻷﻃﺮاف ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎت ﺗﺠﺎرﻳﺔ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺑﻬﺪف زﻳﺎدة‬ ‫دﺧﻮل اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ. ﻓﺒﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻣﺘﻴﺎز دﺧﻮل اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺆهﻠﺔ، ﻗﺎم اﻷردن ﺑﺘﻮﻗﻴﻊ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﺤﺮة ﻣﻊ أﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻋﺎم‬ ‫1002، آﻤﺎ ﻗﺎم ﺑﺘﻮﻗﻴﻊ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻹﺗﺤﺎد اﻷوروﺑﻲ ﻋﺎم 2002، إﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ذﻟﻚ، ﻓﺈن اﻷردن ﻣﻮﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﺤﺮة اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺬ ﻋﺎم 8991، ووﻗﻊ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎت ﺗﺠﺎرة ﺣﺮة ﻣﻊ اﻏﻠﺐ دول اﻟﺸﺮق‬ ‫اﻷوﺳﻂ وﺷﻤﺎل إﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ وﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺪول اﻷوروﺑﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻷﻋﻀﺎء ﻓﻲ اﻹﺗﺤﺎد اﻷوروﺑﻲ. ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ‬ ‫ذﻟﻚ ﻓﻘﺪ أﺳﺴﺖ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوﻋﺎ ﻃﻤﻮﺣﺎ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﻌﻘﺒﺔ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻬﺪف إﻳﺠﺎد‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﺤﺮة وإدارة ﺳﻠﺴﺔ ﺑﺈﻋﻔﺎءات ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ وﺑﻨﻴﺔ ﺗﺤﺘﻴﺔ ﻣﺸﺠﻌﺔ. إﻃﺎر)2-2(.‬ ‫)33( ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎم، ﻓﺈن ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺒﻨﺎهﺎ اﻷردن ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻘﺪ اﻷﺧﻴﺮ ﻗﺪ ﺟﻌﻠﺖ ﻣﻦ اﻷردن ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫ﺟﺬب ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻮل اﻟﺤﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﻔﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻴﻮد اﻟﺠﻤﺮآﻴﺔ وﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﺠﻤﺮآﻴﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻷﺳﻮاق اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ.‬ ‫وﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﺎرﻳﺨﻪ، ﻓﺈن هﺬا ﻗﺪ أﺻﺒﺢ واﺿﺤﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ رﺋﻴﺲ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﻤﻼﺑﺲ واﻷﻗﻤﺸﺔ وﻋﺪد ﺻﻐﻴﺮ‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﻠﻊ اﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻌﻴﺔ، ﺣﻴﺚ اﺳﺘﻔﺎد اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮون ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪول اﻵﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻴﺰة دﺧﻮل اﻷﺳﻮاق‬ ‫اﻷردﻧﻴﺔ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ اﻟﻘﻴﻮد ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮردات اﻟﻤﻄﺒﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﺎدرات دوﻟﻬﻢ. رﻏﻢ ذﻟﻚ، ﻓﺈن ﻗﺎﻋﺪة‬ ‫اﻟﺼﺎدرات ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻞ أن ﺗﺘﻨﻮع أآﺜﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻨﻮات اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ ﺗﺤﺴﻦ ﺳﻤﻌﺔ اﻷردن ﻟﺠﺬب‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرات اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة واﺳﺘﻔﺎدة اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻻت أﺧﺮى‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ. إﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎت اﻟﺘﻄﻮر هﺬﻩ آﺒﻴﺮة، ﺧﺎﺻﺔ واﻧﻪ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ إزاﻟﺔ ﻋﻮاﺋﻖ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة وﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺗﻜﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة ﻓﻲ اﻷردن ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪول اﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ.‬ ‫إﻃﺎر)2-2(‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﻌﻘﺒﺔ اﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺷﻬﺪ اﻟﻌﻘﺪ اﻟﻤﺎﺿﻲ اهﺘﻤﺎﻣﺎ ﻣﺘﺠﺪدا ﺑﻤﻔﻬﻮم اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﺤﺮة ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ – ﻧﺎﺟﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺟﺰء ﻣﻨﻪ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺤﺎﺟﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺗﻌﺰﻳﺰ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة واﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر. وﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺗﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺴﻜﺎن ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒً، ﻓﺈن ﺣﺼﺔ اﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﺎدرات اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ، ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء اﻟﻨﻔﻂ، ﻗﺪ اﻧﺨﻔﻀﺖ ﻣﻦ 01% ﻋﺎم 0891 إﻟﻰ 4% ﻋﺎم 1002.‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫وﻋﻠﻰ ذات اﻟﻨﻬﺞ، ﻓﺈن ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻷﺟﻨﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ إﻟﻰ اﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ ﻗﺪ ﺑﻠﻐﺖ ﻓﻘﻂ 4 ﻣﻠﻴﺎرات دوﻻر أﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ - ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒً ﺛﻠﺚ اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫اﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎدات اﻷوروﺑﻴﺔ اﻟﺼﻐﻴﺮة ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﺴﻮﻳﺪ أو إﻳﺮﻟﻨﺪا أو ﻓﻨﻠﻨﺪا. وﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﺁﺧﺮ ﺟﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻼﺣﻈﺔ آﺎن ﻧﺠﺎح ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺟﺒﻞ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﺤﺮة ﻓﻲ دﺑﻲ، واﻟﻘﺮى آﺎﻧﺖ ﻗﺎدرة‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺬب ﺣﻮاﻟﻲ 0022 ﺷﺮآﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ وﺧﻠﻖ 53 أﻟﻒ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ، وﺧﻠﻖ 4 ﻣﻠﻴﺎرات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﺎدرات ﻣﻨﺬ ﺗﺄﺳﻴﺴﻬﺎ ﻋﺎم 5891.‬ ‫وﻗﺪ آﺎن اﻷردن أﺣﺪ أآﺜﺮ اﻟﺪول ﻧﺸﺎﻃﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر واﻟﺘﺠﺎر. ورﺑﻤﺎ آﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﻌﻘﺒﺔ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ أآﺜﺮ اﻟﻤﺸﺎرﻳﻊ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻃﻤﻮﺣً، واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻬﺪف إﻟﻰ ﻣﺰاوﺟﺔ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺗﺠﺎرة ﺣﺮة وﺑﻴﺌﺔ إﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر وأﻋﻤﺎل ﺑﺴﻴﻄﺔ. وﺑﺪأ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻋﺎم 1002، ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﻌﻘﺒﺔ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺎ‬ ‫573 آﻴﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﺮﺑﻊ – إﺣﺪى أآﺒﺮ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﺤﺮة  

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