D&B US Economic Health Tracker (March 2014)

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This report highlights US economic performance via three key indices. The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year equally weighted average of D&B’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor.

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D&B US Economic Health Tracker (March 2014)

  1. 1. D&B U.S. Economic Health Tracker A multi-dimensional view of the U.S. Economy www.dnb.com/tracker March 2014 Small Business Health Index: Overall Small Business Health Index Payment Delinquency 120 5% .03 points 100 Credit Card Delinquency 3% 80 Credit Card Use 60 Dec '04 Dec '06 Dec '08 Dec '10 3.4% Feb' 14 Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics D&B’s Small Business Health Index has contracted modestly, although small businesses saw improvement in on-time credit card and bill payments. US Jobs Health: Overall U.S. Jobs Health Manufacturing Retail 220000 200000 Real Estate Business Services 146,000 180000 Construction 160000 140000 Sept '13 Oct '13 Nov' 13 Dec' 13 Jan' 14 Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics Feb' 14 Trade, Transportation & Utilities D&B estimates 146,000 new jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in February 2014, with significant gains in manufacturing, construction, and business services. Employment growth is anticipated to continue at a slower pace.
  2. 2. www.dnb.com/tracker March 2014 US Business Health Index: Overall U.S. Business Health Index 55 TOTAL INDEX VALUE 53.1 IMPROVEMENT 50 NEUTRAL 5.6% Y/Y DETERIORATION 45 Feb' 12 Jan '13 How to read this indicator: A reading of 50% represents “neutral.” A reading of more than 50% reflects improvement and a reading of less than 50% reflects deterioration. Viability 13.7% Delinquency 2.2% Total Loss 0.9% Feb' 14 Source: DB Global Data, Insights Analytics U.S. business health improved 5.6 percent year-over-year in February 2014, the highest recorded level since the index began in December 2010. Businesses continued to improve their balance sheets and overall financial performance. Perspectives The DB U.S. Business Economic Tracker revealed mixed signals for U.S. businesses in February 2014. Wintry weather had a negative impact on the Small Business Health Index, driving the decline in small business performance. There are signs of softening in the small business sector but clearly weather is the primary influence. Meanwhile, an estimated 146,000 new jobs were created, boosted by strong gains in the construction, manufacturing, and business services segments. Finally, overall U.S. business health strengthened in February, registering a 53.1-percent index value, matching January as the highest recorded level since the index began in December 2010. U.S. businesses continued to strengthen their financial health at the beginning of 2014, based on the weighted average of DB’s Viability Rating, Delinquency Predictor, and Total Loss Predictor. Despite lingering challenges to the recovery, healthier financials and balance sheets bode well for the U.S. economy. Methodology The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year equally weighted average of DB’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The index ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all businesses recording low levels of risk). Data available as of Feb. 28, 2014. To learn more, visit www.dnb.com/tracker About Dun Bradstreet® (DB) Dun Bradstreet (NYSE:DNB) is the world’s leading source of commercial information and insight on businesses, enabling companies to Decide with Confidence® for 172 years. DB’s global commercial database contains more than 230 million business records. The database is enhanced by DB’s proprietary DUNSRight® Quality Process, which provides our customers with quality business information. This quality information is the foundation of our global solutions that customers rely on to make critical business decisions. © Dun Bradstreet, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. (DB-3765 3/14)

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