D&B US Economic Health Tracker (April 2014)

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The D&B U.S. Economic Health Tracker revealed more mixed signals for U.S. businesses in March 2014. The recent decline in small business health continued after two quarters of remarkable stability. Weather is clearly a factor in the slippage, but the persistent sluggishness warrants close attention as the U.S. expansion moves into the second quarter. Meanwhile, an estimated 197,000 new jobs were created, boosted by strong gains in the construction, business services, and trade/transportation/utilities segments. Finally, overall U.S. business health continued to strengthen in March, registering a 53.1-percent index value, matching February as the highest recorded level since the index began in December 2010.

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D&B US Economic Health Tracker (April 2014)

  1. 1. 3.5% 9.9% 4.5% Payment Delinquency Credit Card Delinquency Credit Card Use Manufacturing Retail Real Estate Construction Business Services Trade, Transportation & Utilities Small Business Health Index U.S. Jobs Health D&B U.S. Economic Health Tracker A multi-dimensional view of the U.S. Economy D&B’s Small Business Health Index eroded once again, prompting some additional caution regarding the near-term economic outlook. While weather is a factor, the erosion warrants attention. D&B estimates 197,000 new jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in March 2014, with notable gains in construction, business services, and trade/ transportation/utilities. April 2014 Small Business Health Index: Overall Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics 60 80 100 120 Mar' 14Dec '10Dec '08Dec '06Dec '04 2.6points US Jobs Health: Overall Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics 140000 160000 180000 200000 220000 Mar' 14Feb' 14Jan' 14Dec' 13Nov' 13Oct '13 197,000 www.dnb.com/tracker
  2. 2. The D&B U.S. Economic Health Tracker revealed more mixed signals for U.S. businesses in March 2014. The recent decline in small business health continued after two quarters of remarkable stability. Weather is clearly a factor in the slippage, but the persistent sluggishness warrants close attention as the U.S. expansion moves into the second quarter. Meanwhile, an estimated 197,000 new jobs were created, boosted by strong gains in the construction, business services, and trade/ transportation/utilities segments. Finally, overall U.S. business health continued to strengthen in March, registering a 53.1-percent index value, matching February as the highest recorded level since the index began in December 2010. U.S. businesses improved their financial health at the beginning of 2014, based on the weighted average of D&B’s Viability Rating, Delinquency Predictor, and Total Loss Predictor. All told, the mixed signals suggest the recovery for all U.S. businesses will continue in fits and starts. The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year equally weighted average of D&B’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The index ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all businesses recording low levels of risk). Data available as of Mar. 28, 2014. Methodology www.dnb.com/trackerApril 2014 About Dun & Bradstreet® (D&B) Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE:DNB) is the world’s leading source of commercial information and insight on businesses, enabling companies to Decide with Confidence® for 172 years. D&B’s global commercial database contains more than 230 million business records. The database is enhanced by D&B’s proprietary DUNSRight® Quality Process, which provides our customers with quality business information. This quality information is the foundation of our global solutions that customers rely on to make critical business decisions. © Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. (DB-3784 4/14) U.S. Business Health Index To learn more, visit www.dnb.com/tracker Perspectives 12.2% 1.1% Viability Delinquency 1.2%Total Loss US Business Health Index: Overall Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics 45 50 55 Mar' 14Jan '13Feb' 12 IMPROVEMENT NEUTRAL DETERIORATION 5% TOTAL INDEX VALUE 53.1 Y/Y U.S. business health improved 5 percent year-over-year in March 2014. Businesses were at less risk of failure and continued paying their bills on time. How to read this indicator: A reading of 50% represents “neutral.” A reading of more than 50% reflects improvement and a reading of less than 50% reflects deterioration.

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