D&B US Economic Health Tracker (Jan 2014)

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This report highlights US economic performance via three key indices. The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year equally weighted average of D&B’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor.

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D&B US Economic Health Tracker (Jan 2014)

  1. 1. D&B U.S. Economic Health Tracker A multi-dimensional view of the U.S. Economy www.dnb.com/tracker January 2014 Small Business Health Index: Overall Small Business Health Index Payment Delinquency 120 18% 0.2 points 100 Credit Card Delinquency .01% 80 Credit Card Use 60 Dec '04 Dec '06 Dec '08 Dec '10 .02% Dec' 13 Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics D&B’s Small Business Health Index has contracted modestly. Underlying factors of this critically important segment—like credit demand and financial performance—remain positive and support the outlook for moderate improvement in the economic recovery. US Jobs Health: Overall U.S. Jobs Health Manufacturing Retail 220000 Real Estate 200000 Business Services 216,000 180000 Construction 160000 140000 Jul '13 Aug '13 Sept '13 Oct '13 Nov' 13 Dec' 13 Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics Trade, Transportation & Utilities D&B estimates 216,000 new jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in December 2013, with significant gains in retail, due to seasonal factors. The overall pace of employment growth is projected to continue improving modestly.
  2. 2. www.dnb.com/tracker January 2014 US Business Health Index: Overall U.S. Business Health Index 55 TOTAL INDEX VALUE 53.7 IMPROVEMENT 50 NO CHANGE 2.0% DETERIORATION 45 Feb' 12 Jan '13 How to read this indicator: A reading of 50% represents “no change.” A reading of more than 50% reflects improvement and a reading of less than 50% reflects deterioration. Viability 5.9% Delinquency 0.2% Total Loss 0.3% Dec' 13 Source: DB Global Data, Insights Analytics U.S. business health improved 2 percent in December 2013. Businesses continued to improve their balance sheets and overall financial performance, extending a trend that accelerated in 2012. Perspectives The DB U.S. Economic Health Tracker revealed more bright spots for U.S. businesses in December 2013. In spite of a slight decline in the Small Business Health Index, the U.S. small business sector continues to improve steadily. The recovery process for small businesses in the U.S. remains uneven, although improvement has touched most verticals and geographic areas in the last year. Meanwhile, an estimated 216,000 new jobs were created, with most sectors reporting higher gains than the previous month. The retail segment helped drive growth in U.S. payrolls for the month. Finally, overall U.S. business health strengthened in December, registering a 53-percent index value, up 2 percent compared to December 2012. This marked the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year growth among U.S. businesses, based on the weighted average of DB’s Viability Rating, Delinquency Predictor, and Total Loss Predictor. All told, the U.S. recovery continues to demonstrate high levels of resiliency as companies seek out new business opportunities. Methodology The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year weighted average of DB’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The cumulative diffusion index—which measures the breadth of change—ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all businesses recording low levels of risk). Data available as of Dec. 31, 2013. To learn more, visit www.dnb.com/tracker About Dun Bradstreet® (DB) Dun Bradstreet (NYSE:DNB) is the world’s leading source of commercial information and insight on businesses, enabling companies to Decide with Confidence® for 172 years. DB’s global commercial database contains more than 230 million business records. The database is enhanced by DB’s proprietary DUNSRight® Quality Process, which provides our customers with quality business information. This quality information is the foundation of our global solutions that customers rely on to make critical business decisions. © Dun Bradstreet, Inc. 2013. All rights reserved. (DB-3716 1/14)

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