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SearchLove Boston 2019 - Rand Fishkin - Building Influence in 2019

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As web marketing undergoes its biggest shift in a decade, how we impact audiences needs to evolve. In this presentation, Rand shows how web marketers in content, search, social, and advertising (+ influencer marketing) can shift their strategic and tactical investments to align with what the big platforms offer, and how consumer behavior has changed, too.

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SearchLove Boston 2019 - Rand Fishkin - Building Influence in 2019

  1. 1. Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO Building Influence As web marketing undergoes its biggest shift in a decade, how we influence audiences needs to evolve.
  2. 2. Bit.ly/sparkinfluence2019
  3. 3. Influencer Marketing Discover all the sources that influence your audience. Do marketing (of all kinds) in those places. 2012
  4. 4. Influencer Marketing Pay half naked people on Instagram to post a photo with your product. 2019
  5. 5. Why is Influencer Marketing Getting All the Attention? ViaGoogleTrends
  6. 6. And So Much Investment? ChartviaMediaKix *EstimateviaMozcirca2018 For comparison, SEO spend globally is ~$20-30B*
  7. 7. IMO, Data Like This Creates Irrational Bias ViaPew Instead of “Where are *our* customers?”, Too many marketers ask “Which platform’s biggest?”
  8. 8. Potential Sources of Influence: Podcasts Events Mainstream Media Trade Journals Whitepapers Radio Television Guerilla Marketing Branded Publications Blogs Twitter YouTube Channels Industry Reports Facebook GroupsWeb Searches Email Newsletters Consumer Review Pubs Instagram
  9. 9. Where “Influencer Marketing” is Done: Podcasts Events Mainstream Media Trade Journals Whitepapers Radio Television Guerilla Marketing Branded Publications Blogs Twitter YouTube Channels Industry Reports Facebook GroupsWeb Searches Email Newsletters Consumer Review Pubs Instagram
  10. 10. ViaPew, Journalism.org,eMarketer,Statista Reality Check: Attention & Influence Happen Everywhere
  11. 11. • Desktop devices average ~800 distinct pages viewed per month • Mobile devices averaged ~300 distinct pages viewed per month • Slight decrease in mobile browser pageviews over time (possibly cannibalized by apps) • In March 2019, users viewed 2,350 unique pages on desktop and 680 unique pages on mobile (monthly counts in the graph count multiple visits to the same URL per month as 1) 0 150 300 450 600 750 900 Jan-16 M ar-16 M ay-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 N ov-16 Jan-17 M ar-17 M ay-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 N ov-17 Jan-18 M ar-18 M ay-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 N ov-18 Jan-19 M ar-19 Avg.#ofPageViews Average Distinct Pages Viewed Per Device by Month Mobile Desktop Despite the Growth of Apps & Domination of Big Tech Monopolies, the Web Remains a Vibrant, Diverse Ecosystem
  12. 12. Where Should We Do Influence Marketing? Wherever Our Audience Engages.
  13. 13. The Major Shifts Impacting Search, Social, Content, & Advertising And How Marketers Can Best React
  14. 14. Search
  15. 15. Here’s Why That Should Scare Web Creators…
  16. 16. Google Needs Growth, & It’s Not Coming From New Searchers (at least in developed countries) - 5,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 25,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 35,000,000,000 40,000,000,000 Jan-16 Feb-16 M ar-16 A pr-16 M ay-16 Jun -16 Jul-16 A ug -16 Sep-16 O ct-16 N ov-16 D ec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 M ar-17 A pr-17 M ay-17 Jun -17 Jul-17 A ug -17 Sep-17 O ct-17 N ov-17 D ec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 M ar-18 A pr-18 M ay-18 Jun -18 Jul-18 A ug -18 Sep-18 O ct-18 N ov-18 D ec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 M ar-19 U.S. Searches by Month (web browsers only) Google Desktop Google Images Desktop Google Mobile Google Images Mobile
  17. 17. 3 Theories of Plateauing Search Demand 2: Voice search and mobile apps are cannibalizing queries (e.g.GoogleHome,GoogleAssistant,andtheirSearchApp) 1: Google’s getting better at solving searches the first time (sosearchersdon’tneedtoperformmorequeries) 3: Alternatives to Google are taking market share (e.g.Facebook,Instagram,DuckDuckGo,YouTube,andAmazon)
  18. 18. Theory 1: Google’s Removing the Need for Multiple Queries on the Same Topic(s)
  19. 19. They Do This Through Web Result Replacements…
  20. 20. Content Scraping that Precludes a Click-Through
  21. 21. Giving Their Own Properties Preferential Treatment
  22. 22. And More Telepathic, Direct-to-the-Answer Results.
  23. 23. Theory 2: Voice Search & Mobile Apps Are Cannibalizing Queries ViaPerficientDigital’s2019Surveyof1,719people
  24. 24. ViaHigherVisibility’s2018Survey of2,017SmartphoneOwners Unfortunately, we don’t yet have real data, just surveys (which, historically, are poor representations of how people actually behave).
  25. 25. Theory 3: Alternatives to Google Are Taking Market Share - 10,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 40,000,000,000 50,000,000,000 60,000,000,000 Jan-16 Feb-16 M ar-16 Apr-16 M ay-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 M ar-17 Apr-17 M ay-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 M ar-18 Apr-18 M ay-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 M ar-19 Desktop Share of Searches by Month Google Google Images Google Maps YouTube Bing Yahoo Facebook Amazon Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia ViaJumpshot’sclickstreampanelof10mm+devicesintheUS,browserdataonly(noapps)
  26. 26. - 500,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 Jan-16 M ar-16M ay-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 N ov-16 Jan-17 M ar-17M ay-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 N ov-17 Jan-18 M ar-18M ay-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 N ov-18 Jan-19 M ar-19 Search Volumes by Month Under 2.5B Bing Yahoo Facebook Amazon Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia - 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 350,000,000 Jan-16 M ar-16M ay-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 N ov-16 Jan-17 M ar-17M ay-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 N ov-17 Jan-18 M ar-18M ay-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 N ov-18 Jan-19 M ar-19 Search Volumes by Month Under 350M Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia ViaJumpshot’sclickstreampanelof10mm+devicesintheUS,browserdataonly(noapps)
  27. 27. Amazon’s Searched ~1/30th as Much as Google, But… 50,000 500,000 5,000,000 50,000 500,000 5,000,000 GOOGLESEARCHES AMAZON SEARCHES Search Volumes for Top 1K Branded and Nonbranded Amazon Keywords on Google and Amazon (2018) Nonbranded Terms Branded Terms Nonbranded Avg Branded Avg nintendo switch laptop headphones kindle ps4 bluetooth headphones prime video external hard drive paper towels iPhone 7 case cbd oil water bottle iPhone charger food lingerie dog iPhone xr adidas aa batteries roku mens socks monitor christmas audible sheets
  28. 28. What About Search on Instagram? - 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 Jan -16 M ar-16 M ay-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 N ov-16 Jan -17 M ar-17 M ay-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 N ov-17 Jan -18 M ar-18 M ay-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 N ov-18 Jan -19 M ar-19 Instagram Hashtag Clicks by Month (Desktop) IG’s grown ~2.5X on desktop (at a time when desktop overall shrank). Still <0.1% of Google’s desktop search volume.
  29. 29. 3 Theories of Plateauing Search Demand 2: Voice search and mobile apps are cannibalizing queries (e.g.GoogleHome,GoogleAssistant,andtheirSearchApp) 1: Google’s getting better at solving searches the first time (sosearchersdon’tneedtoperformmorequeries) 3: Alternatives to Google are taking market share (e.g.Facebook,Instagram,DuckDuckGo,YouTube,andAmazon) These two are probably happening. The third, not so much.
  30. 30. What’s Google Doing to Grow Ad Revenue? #1: Larger numbers of more subtle ads #2: More kinds of ads
  31. 31. Google’s Desktop CTRs March 2019 (US): Paid: 6.1% Organic: 65.3% Zero Click Searches: 34.7% *Note:Sumsaregreaterthan100%assomesearchersclickmultipleresultsperquery
  32. 32. Google’s Mobile CTRs March 2019 (US): *Note:Sumsaregreaterthan100%assomesearchersclickmultipleresultsperquery Paid: 9.5% Organic: 38.4% Zero Click Searches: 61.6%
  33. 33. How Do These Changes Affect Searcher Behavior? 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Jan-16 M ar-16 M ay-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 N ov-16 Jan-17 M ar-17 M ay-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 N ov-17 Jan-18 M ar-18 M ay-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 N ov-18 Jan-19 M ar-19 Desktop Organic CTR, Paid CTR, and Zero Click Searches (2016-2019) Desktop Organic Clickthroughs Desktop Paid Clicks Desktop Zero Clicks Desktop Zero-Click Searches Up ~12% in 3 Years
  34. 34. On Mobile, Those Effects Are Magnified 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 Mobile Organic CTR, Paid CTR, and Zero-Click Searches (2016-2019) Mobile Clickthroughs Mobile Paid Clicks Mobile Zero Clicks Mobile Zero-Click Searches Up ~20% in 3 Years
  35. 35. Google’s 2019 ABCs: Biasing Visibility & Clicks to Paid Results Answering Queries in SERPs & Sending Out Less Traffic Competing Directly with Publishers (andrankingtheirownpropertiesaheadofanyoneelse’s)
  36. 36. How Can Search Marketers React?
  37. 37. Control Your Brand with On-SERP SEO ID sites that rank in your space, & build profiles on them Claim Your Panels Leverage the Rich Snippets Google Offers
  38. 38. When KWs Show Aggregated Answers, Influence the Publishers Below to Get Listed To Get Into These… Get Mentioned + Listed In These
  39. 39. Double Down on Branded Demand Creation
  40. 40. e.g. Elvie’s #FreeTheFeed campaign got Londoners searching and sharing to create brand awareness (and bias future searches/clicks)
  41. 41. If Other Sites Can Rank, But You Can’t (Yet); Use Barnacle SEO Every one of these sites enables user-submitted or guest editorial contributions
  42. 42. Shift SEO-Focused Content to KWs Google Is Less Likely to Cannibalize ViaAhrefs 40%+ of all searches get <100 searches per month. The long tail is still a gold mine for SEO.
  43. 43. 500-30,000+ searches/month, and hyper-competitive ViaKeywordExplorer
  44. 44. But scroll down, and the long tail still looks mighty attractive ViaKeywordExplorer
  45. 45. Use CTR % Estimates in Your KW Research This metric uses clickstream data to estimate the % of searchers who’ll click on the standard, non- paid, organic SERPs
  46. 46. Social
  47. 47. Social Followers’ Engagement Rates Have Fallen to Near-Zero ViaRivalIQ2019
  48. 48. IMO: 10,000 Instagram Followers < 100 Emails ViaRivalIQ2019
  49. 49. Social Follower Email Address Avg Engagement/ Post or Email Ability to Retarget? Reach on Other Platforms Ability to Get Audience Data Direct Outreach Possible? 20.81%* * Via Mailchimp Yes,Anywhere Yup. Tons. Yes. 1.73%* Onlyonthat Network Nope. Onlywhatthe networkgivesyou. No. * Via RivalIQ
  50. 50. Social’s Traffic is Still Paltry Compared to Search Via Google.com Oct 2016 Facebook.com Reddit.com YouTube.com Imgur.com Bing.com Wikipedia.org Gained/Lost 59.2% 6.5% 5.4% 4.5% 2.2% 2.2% 1.4% Yahoo.com 6.0% -1.4% -1.3% -2.0% +0.3% -1.2% +1.5% -0.1% -1.7% Amazon.com 1.3% +0.1% Top Traffic Referrers Feb 2018 57.8% 5.2% 3.4% 4.8% 1.0% 3.7% 1.3% 4.3% 1.4%
  51. 51. Though It’s Sending a Little More Traffic Than Before
  52. 52. Mostly, That’s FB Groups, Pinterest, & Instagram
  53. 53. Instagram Has Always Prevented Outlinking
  54. 54. Now They May Be Targeting the “Link in Bio” Via AgoraPulse AgoraPulse’sexperimentfounda34% decrease inavg.reachwhenapost containedthephrase“linkinbio”orsimilar.
  55. 55. YouTube Cuts Off Descriptions to Avoid Making Links Visible in the Default View
  56. 56. On Mobile… They Hide Them Entirely
  57. 57. Twitter & LinkedIn Bias Against Posts with Links Via MarginallyCoherent
  58. 58. And All of Them Push Content that Engages > Content That’s “Shared” Crazy high impressions… Relatively few retweets?
  59. 59. The tweets that engage people ON Twitter > high metric tweets that contain links L
  60. 60. How Can Social Marketers React?
  61. 61. Engagement Streaks Rule Social Happy Dance! Sad Trombone.
  62. 62. Social Algorithms Are Designed to: Engage Addict Retain Does this content attract users, generate likes/shares, & hold their attention? Do users who see this content stay on our platform and keep engaging? Do users who’ve consumed this content return to our platform again & again?
  63. 63. When I have a low engagement post, my next post has a harder time reaching a big audience.
  64. 64. When a post gets high engagement, FB boosts the reach of my next post (unless it starts to show poor engagement)
  65. 65. In this way, Facebook (& Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, etc) reward high engagement streaks and makes accounts w/ low engagement invisible.
  66. 66. To benefit from this system, use a formula like this: High engagement, non-promotional post High engagement, non-promotional post Promotion w/ CTA High engagement, non-promotional post These earn brand exposure & new followers High engagement, non-promotional post
  67. 67. To benefit from this system, use a formula like this: High engagement, non-promotional post High engagement, non-promotional post Promotion w/ CTA High engagement, non-promotional post These capitalize on your algorithmic reputation for high engagement, & earn direct traffic High engagement, non-promotional post
  68. 68. To Build Brand on Social, We Need: 2) Contentthatisobviously connectedtothebrand 1) Contentthatearnshigh engagement&amplification 3) Contentthatcreatesemotional resonance(bestdonethrough compellingstories)
  69. 69. Use Latent vs. Active Links to Your Site That’s what I’m talking ‘bout! That’s not so bad, either J
  70. 70. Content + Social = Awareness Awareness + Awesomeness = Conversion
  71. 71. Content
  72. 72. For 15 Years, Content Marketing Worked Great Like This…
  73. 73. Content Flywheel 2001-2016 KW Research + Industry Intuition Publish Content Promote via Social Channels Push to email + RSS subscribers Earn Links + Amplification Grow social, email, RSS, & WoM channels Grow Authority & Brand Recognition Earn Search & Referral Traffic Rank Higher, Get More Traffic
  74. 74. But, in 2019, Four Forces Work Against This Model #2 Targeting keywords with “good, unique content” no longer clears the high bar for earning rankings or shares #1 Demands for monetization and growth have pushed tech monopolies to become publishers’ competitors #3 Amplifiers are more skeptical and jaded than ever before, and rarely spread commercial content #4 Traffic quantity correlates less & less with conversions
  75. 75. How Can Marketers React?
  76. 76. Successful Content Targets Topics that Resonate with Amplifiers, Not Just Customers What Your Customers Care About What Influential Publications & People Your Customers Listen To Care About Topics with high potential reach
  77. 77. The Most Visited Piece the NYT Ever Published? Dialect Quiz Map via NY Times Grabs you fast, then demands engagement Plays to the psychological desire for categorizing oneself & others Creates a viral loop (through sharing & seeing friends’ answers)
  78. 78. What Makes Content Rank in 2019? #2 Effectively uses the words, phrases, & concepts Google associates w/ the query topic (and nails basic KW-matching, too) #1 Hosted on a domain + subdomain that’s earned a large number of diverse, high quality links AND had relatively strong performance in solving searchers’ queries #3 Earns links, shares, traffic, and engagement to the page itself #4 Can answer the simplest parts of searcher intent w/o a click
  79. 79. Hosted on the Right Domain & Subdomain Powerful, long-running sites with loads of links, engagement, traffic, and other positive signals
  80. 80. Effectively, Accurately, & Comprehensively Covers the Topic Use the right words, cover the facts, be accurate, & you rank Via The Economist
  81. 81. Earns Links, Shares, Traffic, & Engagement Both the “state-by- state guide,” AND the “hottest breweries right now” lists earn top spots thanks to links, shares, traffic, & engagement
  82. 82. Can Answer (Simplest Parts of) the Query Without a Click
  83. 83. Can Answer (Simplest Parts of) the Query Without a Click Outranks the official Moz docs, in part because they offer the answer in a SERP-ready snippet
  84. 84. Content as Product When creating content products, ask: What unique value does this deliver (that no one else does)? Why will publications and people amplify/link to this? How does this create competitive advantage with barriers to entry? Explore by Site inside Keyword Explorer
  85. 85. Content Doesn’t Have to Be Conversion Focused! Visitor Content that Converts them to Take Action Right Now Visitor Content that Creates a Positive, Memorable Brand Experience 7-20XEventual Conversion Not the Only W ay!
  86. 86. Content → Email Subscriber → Conversion “A visitor who reaches us via search is 1/19th as likely to subscribe as one who comes in from a newsletter; a reader coming in from Facebook is 1/12th; and a reader coming in from Twitter is 1/6th.” -Nicholas Thompson, Editor in Chief Via Wired
  87. 87. VS. Visitor Email Subscriber Conversion ~2% ~10% Visitor Conversion ~0.2% W rong!
  88. 88. Visitor Conversion + Visitor Email Subscriber Conversion ~0.2% ~2% ~10% These are additive, not competitive!
  89. 89. Advertising
  90. 90. The Late Adopters Are Finally Crossing the Digital Marketing Chasm Via Geoffrey Moore These players have lots of $$$, entrenched brands, & are used to overpaying for untrackable advertising
  91. 91. Venture Dollars Are Also Flooding Ad Markets Via PWC/MoneyTree
  92. 92. Investment Dollars Aren’t Seeking Profits… Just Growth Via Statista
  93. 93. Ad Bids in Many Sectors Go Far Above What’s Profitable
  94. 94. Thus, Ad Costs Go Up, While ROI Trends Down Via BusinessInsider
  95. 95. And Ad Tracking Getting Much Harder Which Will Reinforce Large Quantities of “Dumb Money” > More Trackable Advertising The concept of a 90-day look back window is a wrap. Retargeting beyond 7 days is dead. Effectively, for a sales cycle of any realistic length, the whole concept of attribution outside of last click is over. Via iPullRank
  96. 96. Influencer Marketing is Even Harder to Track Via Linqia
  97. 97. And Accountability is a Massive Issue Via TheDrum “I do campaigns for brands on a weekly basis and less than half ever come back for metrics; less than 50% ever want to know what’s happened. That makes me think it’s PRs playing a numbers game and once a campaign has gone no one is really interested.”
  98. 98. How Can Advertisers React?
  99. 99. The Most Followed Account(s) that Match a Keyword Search Traditional Influencer Marketing Seeks Out: The Most-Reachable Account(s) that Match a Keyword Search OR But That’s Not Really What We Want…
  100. 100. Targeting on Audience Size > Audience Match 4mm followers Followed by 19% of profiles that frequently talk about “supercars”
  101. 101. What You Really Want: People & Publications Your Audience Engages With Most Small overall following, but reaches exactly who we want to reach!
  102. 102. How? Nooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!
  103. 103. Surveys & Interviews!
  104. 104. First: Organic + Brand; Then: Ads + CRO If you’re not yet known, liked, & trusted, ad ROI sucks.
  105. 105. Via Wordstream New to a market? This happens. Known & loved? Welcome to Profitville.
  106. 106. How to Win at Digital Advertising in 2019 Step 2: Earn brand exposure through organic, social, content, SEO, events, & targeted brand marketing Step 3: Get >1 organic visit (or a social engagement) Step 4: Pay to advertise where your audience engages to those who already know+like you Step 1: Interview, survey, or use profile data to discover where your audiences engage (and with whom/what)
  107. 107. Influence Let’s Evolve How We Create Ready?
  108. 108. Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO Thank You! Bit.ly/sparkinfluence2019

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