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Characterizing Change of High Frequency Return Periods in Urbanizing Southern Ontario Watersheds

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Peter John Thompson University Thesis. For more information please feel free to visit our website at http://earthfx.com/

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Characterizing Change of High Frequency Return Periods in Urbanizing Southern Ontario Watersheds

  1. 1. Characterizing change of high frequency return periods in urbanizing southern Ontario watersheds Peter John Thompson Earthfx Inc. Dr. William K. Annable Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Waterloo CWRA 2014 Canada Water Resources Congress June 2, 2014
  2. 2. Effects of Urbanization • Increase in impervious area • Shorter events • Larger peak discharge • Infiltration • Changes to frequency • Channelization • Change in vegetative cover • Habitat degradation • Erosion • Poor water quality • Failure of engineered structures 2
  3. 3. 3 Environment Canada (Water Survey Division) Gauged Catchments Study Catchments
  4. 4. Environment Canada (Water Survey Division) Gauged CatchmentsStudy Catchments
  5. 5. 5 Middle Don River, North York c. 1954-55 Aerial Photographic Analysis Highway 401 under construction RCAF Station Downsview
  6. 6. Aerial Photographic Analysis 6 Don River at York Mills c. 1955 • Scanned and georeferenced aerial photographs in 8-year intervals from 1954 to 2010 • Identified urbanized areas by hand
  7. 7. Aerial Photographic Analysis 7 Don River at York Mills c. 2005 • Two temporal datasets produced: • “Effective Impervious Area” (EIA) • Road Density • Can we relate this observed change to hydrologic variables?
  8. 8. Little Don River at Don Mills (02HC029) 1954 Don River at York Mills (02HC005) 0 2 4 6 8 101 Kilometers Effective Catchment Area Road Network - 1954 Forested Cover - 1955 Urbanized Area - 1954
  9. 9. 1960 Don River at York Mills (02HC005) Little Don River at Don Mills (02HC029) 0 2 4 6 8 101 Kilometers Effective Catchment Area Road Network - 1960 Urbanized Area - 1960
  10. 10. 1970 Don River at York Mills (02HC005) Little Don River at Don Mills (02HC029) 0 2 4 6 8 101 Kilometers Effective Catchment Area Road Network - 1970 Urbanized Area - 1970
  11. 11. 1978 Don River at York Mills (02HC005) Little Don River at Don Mills (02HC029) 0 2 4 6 8 101 Kilometers Effective Catchment Area Road Network - 1978 Urbanized Area - 1978
  12. 12. 1995 Don River at York Mills (02HC005) Little Don River at Don Mills (02HC029)
  13. 13. 2005 Don River at York Mills (02HC005) Little Don River at Don Mills (02HC029)
  14. 14. Land Use Change Transition from Agricultural to Urban Land Use 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 RoadDensity(km/km2) PercentArea Year Urbanized Area Agricultural Area Catchment Road Density 02HC005 – Don River at York Mills Effective Catchment Area – 95.5 km2
  15. 15. Etobicoke Creek below QEW (02HC030) 1970 • Effective Catchment Area - 204 km2 • Urbanized Area - 45.4 km2 (21%) • Total Road Length - 718 km 0 4 8 122 Kilometers Effective Catchment Area Road Network - 1970 Urbanized Area - 1970
  16. 16. Etobicoke Creek below QEW (02HC030) 1978 • Effective Catchment Area - 204 km2 • Urbanized Area - 64.2 km2 (30%) • Total Road Length - 908 km 0 4 8 122 Kilometers Effective Catchment Area Road Network - 1978 Urbanized Area - 1978
  17. 17. Etobicoke Creek below QEW (02HC030) 1995 • Effective Catchment Area - 204 km2 • Urbanized Area - 100 km2 (47%) • Total Road Length - 1380 km 0 4 8 122 Kilometers Effective Catchment Area Road Network - 1995 Urbanized Area - 1995
  18. 18. Etobicoke Creek below QEW (02HC030) 2005 • Effective Catchment Area - 204 km2 • Urbanized Area - 54.9 km2 (55%) • Total Road Length - 1540 km 0 4 8 122 Kilometers Effective Catchment Area Road Network - 2005 Urbanized Area - 2005
  19. 19. Temporal Land Use Change
  20. 20. Redhill Creek at Hamilton (02HA014) 20 • Effective Catchment Area 57.0 km2 • Urbanized Area ~60%
  21. 21. AAfafdas Hydrograph Change with Urbanization Time (T) Time (T) Rainfall(L) Discharge(L3/T) After Urbanization Original Lag time after urbanization Hydrograph of streamflow Lag time Center of mass of runoff and of rainfall Discharge(L3/T) Rainfall •Changes to event hydrograph with urbanization...? after Leopold (1968)
  22. 22. Daily vs. Instantaneous Data 22 02HA014 – Redhill Creek at Hamilton • The daily stream flow represents an average, the instantaneous data is made up of 15 minute interval measurements • Individual events and event peaks can be clearly identified on the 15 minute hydrograph
  23. 23. Instantaneous Stream Flow Data Manual Chart Digitizing (c. ~1975) • Need high resolution, high frequency data • Only data available post-1996 • Joint project with Water Survey of Canada • Archived electronic records dating from 1969 were processed to create a 15 minute resolution hydrograph • Much of this data was originally digitized by hand
  24. 24. Daily vs. Instantaneous Data • Periods of high flow are not captured on the mean daily hydrograph 24 02HC029 – Little Don River at Don Mills
  25. 25. Event Separation Algorithm 25 • Allows individual events to be parsed and analyzed from the instantaneous hydrometric record • Events are considered over after the Q passes below some ratio of the peak • Thresholds range from 15% - 50% of peak discharge02HA014 - Redhill Creek at Hamilton
  26. 26. 26 Event Separation Algorithm • Most events during the year can be identified • There is no instantaneous record for backwater periods due to ice or vegetation • Data lends itself to urban catchments or analysis of warm weather events (May – November) 02HA014 - Redhill Creek at Hamilton BackwaterDuetoIce
  27. 27. Event Separation Algorithm 27 02HC033 - Mimico Creek at Islington BackwaterDuetoIce
  28. 28. Mann-Kendall Trend (5% CI): Increasing Peak Event Discharge
  29. 29. Station Name Trend Duffins Creek above Pickering East Humber River near Pine Grove East Oakville Creek near Omagh Laurel Creek at Waterloo ↑ Redhill Creek at Hamilton Black Creek near Weston ↑ Etobicoke Creek at Brampton ↑ Etobicoke Creek below QEW ↑ Mimico Creek at Islington ↑ Don River at York Mills ↑ Little Don River at Don Mills ↑ Don River at Todmorden ↑ Rouge River near Markham ↑ Highland Creek near West Hill ↑ Harmony Creek at Oshawa ↑ Peak Event Discharge UrbanizedRural
  30. 30. Frequency Analysis • Can we relate changes in the urban footprint to changes in return frequency? • Need to assess hydrologic change in step with catchment land use change 30
  31. 31. Land Use Change 31 Highland Creek near West Hill (02HC013) Urban Area Road Density
  32. 32. Space for Time Substitution 32 Highland Creek near West Hill (02HC013) (Peak Discharge)
  33. 33. Space for Time Substitution 33 (Peak Discharge) Highland Creek near West Hill (02HC013)
  34. 34. 34 Highland Creek near West Hill (02HC013) Moving Window Weibull Recurrence Interval = Length of Record + 1 Event Rank
  35. 35. 35 Little Don River at Don Mills (02HC029) Return Frequency (7-Year Moving Weibull Plot)
  36. 36. Return Frequency (7-Year Moving Weibull Plot) 36 Highland Creek near West Hill (02HC013)
  37. 37. 37 Don River at Todmorden (02HC024) Return Frequency (7-Year Moving Weibull Plot)
  38. 38. 38 Rouge River near Markham (02HC022) Return Frequency (7-Year Moving Weibull Plot)
  39. 39. Conclusions • Event based separation allows high resolution datasets to be parsed down to hydrological descriptive variables • The magnitude of change in storm peaks varies with return frequency, but these changes may not be consistent • Spatial distribution of build-out critical to understanding hydrologic change • These data can be used for Partial Peak, and Partial Duration, and Annual Duration methods to fine tune the analysis of higher frequency events in urban catchments A Nonstationary Analysis of Southern Ontario Storm Events Identified from High Resolution Streamflow Data; Nicole L. O’Brien, Peter J. Thompson, Donald H. Burn, William K. Annable Session M2C
  40. 40. Acknowledgements Dr. Herman Goertz Jeanette Fooks Paula Hunter Carrie-Lynn Green Water Survey Division, Environment Canada Tom Arsenault Aerial Photography Analysis Eco-Hydraulics Co-op Robert Leonard Tyler Gale Nikita Tirskikh Victoria Lounder Chris McKie Ben Plumb Christina Bright CompuMOD Dataset Extraction Ian McLaurin
  41. 41. 41 Thank you! Questions or Comments?
  42. 42. WSC Station ID Station Name Area (km2) Percent Urban (1969) Percent Urban (≈2010) Percent Change 02HC019 Duffins Creek above Pickering 93.5 > 5% -- 02HC009 East Humber River near Pine Grove 197 > 10% -- 02HB004 East Oakville Creek near Omagh 199 > 10% -- 02GA024 Laurel Creek at Waterloo 57.5 15 38 23 02HA014 Red Hill Creek at Hamilton 57.0 27 60 33 02HC027 Black Creek near Weston 66.0 55 78 22 02HC017 Etobicoke Creek at Brampton 65.1 1 18 17 02HC030 Etobicoke Creek below QEW 211 20 55 34 02HC033 Mimico Creek at Islington 75.2 43 82 39 02HC005 Don River at York Mills 96.7 30 69 39 02HC029 Little Don River at Don Mills 138 30 68 38 02HC024 Don River at Todmorden 321 43 73 30 02HC022 Rouge River near Markham 181 7 40 33 02HC013 Highland Creek near West Hill 89.0 47 86 39 02HD013 Harmony Creek at Oshawa 42.1 20 45 25 42 Study Catchments
  43. 43. Mann-Kendall Test • Non-parametric test for monotonic trends • Independent events assumed to be uncorrelated • Trends tested to a 95% significance level ( p ≤ 0.025 )            0if1 0if0 0if1 sgn           1 1 1 sgn n k n kj kj xxS 43
  44. 44. Typical Event Hydrograph 44 Qpeak Qthreshold Qstart Qend Time Discharge tstart tpeak tthreshold Trise Tthreshold Ttotal Vrise Q75 Q50 T75 T50 Rising Limb Falling Limb Recession Limb Vrecession Vtotal tend • Once an event has be identified on the hydrograph, specific event properties can be analyzed • Event volume, duration, time to peak, etc. can be calculated directly from the observed hydrograph • Trends in event parameters can be explored
  45. 45. Peak Event Discharge Station Name Trend Duffins Creek above Pickering East Humber River near Pine Grove East Oakville Creek near Omagh Laurel Creek at Waterloo ↑ Redhill Creek at Hamilton Black Creek near Weston ↑ Etobicoke Creek at Brampton ↑ Etobicoke Creek below QEW ↑ Mimico Creek at Islington ↑ Don River at York Mills ↑ Little Don River at Don Mills ↑ Don River at Todmorden ↑ Rouge River near Markham ↑ Highland Creek near West Hill ↑ Harmony Creek at Oshawa ↑
  46. 46. Number of Events per Year Station Name Trend Duffins Creek above Pickering East Humber River near Pine Grove East Oakville Creek near Omagh Laurel Creek at Waterloo Redhill Creek at Hamilton Black Creek near Weston Etobicoke Creek at Brampton ↑ Etobicoke Creek below QEW Mimico Creek at Islington Don River at York Mills ↑ Little Don River at Don Mills ↑ Don River at Todmorden Rouge River near Markham ↑ Highland Creek near West Hill ↑ Harmony Creek at Oshawa ↑
  47. 47. Event Volume Station Name Trend Duffins Creek above Pickering East Humber River near Pine Grove East Oakville Creek near Omagh Laurel Creek at Waterloo ↑ Redhill Creek at Hamilton ↑ Black Creek near Weston Etobicoke Creek at Brampton ↑ Etobicoke Creek below QEW ↑ Mimico Creek at Islington ↑ Don River at York Mills ↓ Little Don River at Don Mills ↑ Don River at Todmorden ↑ Rouge River near Markham ↑ Highland Creek near West Hill Harmony Creek at Oshawa
  48. 48. Total Event Duration Station Name Trend Duffins Creek above Pickering East Humber River near Pine Grove East Oakville Creek near Omagh ↓ Laurel Creek at Waterloo Redhill Creek at Hamilton Black Creek near Weston ↓ Etobicoke Creek at Brampton ↓ Etobicoke Creek below QEW ↑ Mimico Creek at Islington ↑ Don River at York Mills ↓ Little Don River at Don Mills ↑ Don River at Todmorden ↓ Rouge River near Markham ↑ Highland Creek near West Hill ↓ Harmony Creek at Oshawa ↓
  49. 49. Event Quick Flow (Direct Runoff) Volume Station Name Trend Duffins Creek above Pickering East Humber River near Pine Grove East Oakville Creek near Omagh Oakville Creek at Milton ↓ Credit River near Orangeville Black Creek near Weston Etobicoke Creek at Brampton ↑ Etobicoke Creek below QEW ↑ Mimico Creek at Islington ↑ Don River at York Mills Little Don River at Don Mills ↑ Don River at Todmorden Rouge River near Markham ↑ Highland Creek near West Hill ↑ Harmony Creek at Oshawa MK Trend: Increasing
  50. 50. Event Interflow Volume Station Name Trend Duffins Creek above Pickering ↑ East Humber River near Pine Grove East Oakville Creek near Omagh Oakville Creek at Milton Credit River near Orangeville Black Creek near Weston ↑ Etobicoke Creek at Brampton Etobicoke Creek below QEW ↑ Mimico Creek at Islington ↑ Don River at York Mills Little Don River at Don Mills ↑ Don River at Todmorden ↑ Rouge River near Markham ↑ Highland Creek near West Hill ↑ Harmony Creek at Oshawa ↑ MK Trend: Increasing
  51. 51. Station Name Peak Discharg e Time to Peak Event Duration Total Hydrograp h Duration Event Volume Total Hydrograp h Volume Flashines s Duffins Creek above Pickering East Humber River near Pine Grove East Oakville Creek near Omagh ↓ Oakville Creek at Milton ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ Credit River near Orangeville ↑ Laurel Creek at Waterloo ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Redhill Creek at Hamilton ↑ Black Creek near Weston ↑ ↓ ↑ Etobicoke Creek at Brampton ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ Etobicoke Creek below QEW ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Mimico Creek at Islington ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Don River at York Mills ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ Little Don River at Don Mills ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Don River at Todmorden ↑ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ Rouge River near Markham ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Highland Creek near West Hill ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ Harmony Creek at Oshawa ↑ ↓ ↓ ↑ Summary (Warm Weather Trends)
  52. 52. Mimico Creek at Islington (02HC033) 1970 • Effective Catchment Area - 215 km2 • Urbanized Area - 33.3 km2 (45%) • Total Road Length - 450 km 0 2 4 61 Kilometers Effective Catchment Area Road Network - 1970 Urbanized Area - 1970
  53. 53. Mimico Creek at Islington (02HC033) 1978 • Effective Catchment Area - 215 km2 • Urbanized Area - 40.2 km2 (55%) • Total Road Length - 553 km 0 2 4 61 Kilometers Effective Catchment Area Road Network - 1978 Urbanized Area - 1978
  54. 54. Mimico Creek at Islington (02HC033) 1995 • Effective Catchment Area - 215 km2 • Urbanized Area – 53.0 km2 (72%) • Total Road Length - 641 km 0 2 4 61 Kilometers Effective Catchment Area Road Network - 1995 Urbanized Area - 1995
  55. 55. Mimico Creek at Islington (02HC033) 2005 • Effective Catchment Area - 215 km2 • Urbanized Area - 60.2 km2 (81.5%) • Total Road Length - 683 km 0 2 4 61 Kilometers Road Network - 2005 Effective Catchment Area Urbanized Area - 2005
  56. 56. Highland Creek near West Hill (02HC013) 1955 • Effective Catchment Area - 89 km2 • Urbanized Area - 8.9 km2 (10%) • Total Road Length - 248 km 0 1 2 3 40.5 Kilometers Topographic Catchment Boundary Road Network - 1955 Forest Cover - 1955 Urbanized Area - 1955
  57. 57. Highland Creek near West Hill (02HC013) 2010 • Effective Catchment Area - 89 km2 • Urbanized Area - 76.5 km2 (86%) • Total Road Length - 876 km 0 1 2 3 40.5 Kilometers Topographic Catchment Boundary Road Network - 2010 Urbanized Area - 2010
  58. 58. Change in 1.5 Year Return Discharge 58
  59. 59. Change in Bankfull Discharge 59

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